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That is statistically impossible.
sdkraust
Member Posts: 524 Arc User
I just queued up 8 Superior Weapons Tech Upgrades, with a 72% chance of Critical Success.
I crit 1/8 of them.
Using a standard binomial distribution, the odds of this happening are %0.07.
Don't tell me that these things aren't rigged.
I crit 1/8 of them.
Using a standard binomial distribution, the odds of this happening are %0.07.
Don't tell me that these things aren't rigged.
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Do you have any idea what a binomial distribution is?
Here halve a calculator:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
You know know how to calculate the most common discrete probability.
This guy is right, each of those is an instance of odds in its own right, and by your own numbers you have a 28% chance of failure to achieve the crit. and they have no relation to each other.
Assuming we're talking about a normal 6-sided dice, 1 in 6.
As the person above me stated, it feels much worse when the unlucky odds kick in on the losing side.
INCONCEIVABLE!
The universe has a wonderful sense of humor. The trick is learning how to take a joke.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/
This is the simplified version tho where P(X>=1)
By the way, Thread Subjects can be changed on Vanilla so if you would like to change the word 'Impossible' to 'Improbable' you can do so and cut down on the personal attacks.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
The word you are probably looking for is 'I'm' not 'we're'.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
If you craft the same upgrade 5 times at the same time, after the first 3 the last 2 projects will actually have a lower critical chance than the first 3. So the 4th project will have a lower chance while the 5th has a lower chance than the 4th.
They really screwed us over with this. Along with the critical chance going down the more upgrades you craft at the same time, we can only craft 1 upgrade at a time in a single project with a chance to get 2 from each project. That's a total of 10 upgrades at a time (12 if you bought the R&D project slot from your research lab). It can take 50 or more superior upgrades just to increase the quality to epic on a Mk XIV ultra rare item depending on luck, and it takes 15 minutes for the tech upgrade projects to complete, meaning it takes hours to craft enough for a single item.
Edit: Derp moment! It might not be diminishing returns. It's probably lower quality doffs since, for example, a green quality will give a lower critical chance than a blue.
Still it takes to freaking long to craft enough upgrades. I can spend 2 hours crafting them for 1 character, use them all, and not have my single item upgrade. Usually my ultra rare Mk XIV stuff doesn't upgrade until it reaches close to or more than 30% chance.
This reminds me of a recent bug report on the forums. Someone claims they have a 0% to fail/disaster on a doff assignment and yet it fails. I explained that even if you have a 0.1% chance it's still a chance and having it that low would make the bar look empty, thus giving the impression you have no failure chance at all.
And yes, when all R&D projects have a 20%+ chance of failure it is very possible they all won't crit.
As pointed out, the odds are individually based, not combined. Just like opening lock boxes you have a chance at a ship from each one and it doesn't mean the more boxes you open the higher your chance is. Each box has the same chance.
I know how you feel as I had the same thing happen to me about less than a week ago...I feel your pain but it isn't really impossible.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
perhaps its the shouldhavehappened syndrome or the more prominent thiscanthappentome-itis or the dreaded butideserveit.
I have made a lot of kits, however I have not kept track of crits. Anecdotally I would say 75% crit. And I'd add that putting a blue skill booster thingy makes it pretty much a guarantee. I think I've used maybe 50 of those and had only 1 failure. I've failed many times with 2 greens. I only use these on plektons and argonites.
"With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably."
Pearls? I think you mean Tropical Bird Eggs.
Yeah. At first I was getting at least 1 or 2 a day then after a while I would go days without finding a single egg. Edit: Then I'd go days more without finding any after I got a couple. And this was across 3 characters I was farming the event on each time, with all 3 not being able to find any eggs for several days at a time. Heck I think I went over a week at least once without any eggs. It's been a common complaint since the first summer event back in 2013.