People are stupid. The odds don't change the more you chances you gamble. If the odds are 1% chance of winning you are going to have a 99% chance of failing each time you try. Convincing yourself the odds get better the more you try is simply self delusional.
Actually, they do change. If you approach the lock box system, for example, with 100 boxes you have a 63.4% chance (with the hypothetical 1% odds of a ship) of winning in at least one case (one minus the odds of total failure). If you open one and get nothing (which is a 99% probability) the odds of winning with the remaining 99 drop to 63.03% and so on.
The more you lose, the lower your odds become over the total chances you have left. So the only certain way of winning is to take those 100 lock box keys and sell them on the exchange. Simple as that.
Bipedal mammal and senior Foundry author.
Notable missions: Apex [AEI], Gemini [SSF], Trident [AEI], Evolution's Smile [SSF], Transcendence
Looking for something new to play? I've started building Foundry missions again in visual novel form!
Lockbox and lockbox keys, I can deal with. After opening over 300 lockboxes and only getting less than 5 ships that are not mirror variants, I just won't mess with.
It's the crafting and upgrading that requires Dil which irks me.
SWTOR does crafting right. There, you just gather the mats and craft. No excess currency needed.
If they remove dilithium from crafting and either lower the dil cost or remove it completely from the upgrade system, and I'll be happy to spend more money.
Now the XP problems and the timegates on everything is a whole other can of worms.
Its also avoiding a very serious problem: people generally don't know how statistics work. Show someone the odds of winning a lock box ship are, say 1% and they may run through 100 boxes without their top prize to show for it. They'll still complain like they've just been fleeced (where's my damn ship cryptic, I bought 100 lock boxes!) without any understanding that deviating from the expected probabilities is increasingly likely with smaller samples sizes (such as what one is capable of putting into the lock box system.)
Then they may buy 100 more, and still have the same outcome, because despite the fact that 200 boxes were bought their effort in the first case does not bias the outcomes in the second. The probabilities are independent.
That level of rage then will feature on the forums with claims of definite fraud and number tweaking, when their situation is only expressing the 14% probability that across a total of 200 lock boxes (and a 1% success rate) they'll still end up with nothing (and a 36% chance of total failure in viewing only the second group of 100 lock boxes after the first 100 failures.) And even though those probabilities are relatively unlikely, among a large enough cohort its reasonable to expect someone to find them.
Better then to avoid the problem of numbers and keep them out of the hands of those who would abuse them (to justify against evidence/reason that they are still the most special person in all the universe).
It doesn't matter if people don't understand the numbers. It doesn't matter if they complain anyway. It's a matter of principle. It's about not hiding information that may be unfavorable from your customers. That's why we put nutritional information on food packages, even if people don't read it.
It doesn't matter if people don't understand the numbers. It doesn't matter if they complain anyway. It's a matter of principle. It's about not hiding information that may be unfavorable from your customers. That's why we put nutritional information on food packages, even if people don't read it.
Until the law requires them to post the information they are not going to post it; just as food companies did not post nutritional information on their boxes until the law required them to do it.
STO is about my Liberated Borg Federation Captain with his Breen 1st Officer, Jem'Hadar Tactical Officer, Liberated Borg Engineering Officer, Android Ops Officer, Photonic Science Officer, Gorn Science Officer, and Reman Medical Officer jumping into their Jem'Hadar Carrier and flying off to do missions for the new Romulan Empire. But for some players allowing a T5 Connie to be used breaks the canon in the game.
Actually, they do change. If you approach the lock box system, for example, with 100 boxes you have a 63.4% chance (with the hypothetical 1% odds of a ship) of winning in at least one case (one minus the odds of total failure). If you open one and get nothing (which is a 99% probability) the odds of winning with the remaining 99 drop to 63.03% and so on.
The more you lose, the lower your odds become over the total chances you have left. So the only certain way of winning is to take those 100 lock box keys and sell them on the exchange. Simple as that.
That is not how probability works. They are independent chances with every box. Open 1 and it is a 1% chance to win the ship. Open 3 boxes, each has a 1% chance. 100 boxes, every one has a 1% chance. You do not change your probability by opening boxes.
That is not how probability works. They are independent chances with every box. Open 1 and it is a 1% chance to win the ship. Open 3 boxes, each has a 1% chance. 100 boxes, every one has a 1% chance. You do not change your probability by opening boxes.
That is not how probability works. While the chance of winning the grand prize remains the same per box opened, nonetheless, the chance of having won (!= winning) increases, overall, after having opened a lot of them. I.e., the chance of NOT having won after having opened, say, a million lock boxes is as good as zero.
I.e., the chance of NOT having won after having opened, say, a million lock boxes is as good as zero.
Err ok, but it is that kind of rationalization that leads to silly statements like if I keep running into a brick wall, from a quantum mechanic point of view I will inevitably manage to pass through without damage to my flesh. It is in fact quite possible to open a million boxes and not get what you want. Your sample size is one, you. Probability doesn't care about you. Probability will smear itself across the one million people who play this game. You disappear in that sample size.
That is not how probability works. They are independent chances with every box. Open 1 and it is a 1% chance to win the ship. Open 3 boxes, each has a 1% chance. 100 boxes, every one has a 1% chance. You do not change your probability by opening boxes.
That's not how probability works, exactly correct from a purely abstract mathematical perspective. No argument.
However, those of who write code professionally also know that it is impossible to get a truly random result from a computer. Computers are designed from the ground up to be completely predictable. It is possible to get a stuck seed, etc.
One of my favorite approaches to "RNG" in software is the Random.org Coin Toss. They don't rely on the operating system to provide a unique seed:
This form allows you to flip virtual coins. The randomness comes from atmospheric noise, which for many purposes is better than the pseudo-random number algorithms typically used in computer programs.
I have no idea how Cryptic implements seed sourcing.
Anyway none of this changes the main point. While a software program can possibly begin to build a bias towards a result when generation is "too fast" and the seed not truly randomized, at the end of the day each "toss of the coin" is its own unique event in the entire universe.
Which is more than kind of cool when you think about it.
This game has, in my opinion, a good f2p model in operation.
You can spend NO MONEY AT ALL up to level 50 and enjoy yourself.
Do they offer paid upgrades and other items that require purchase? Sure, they have to make money to keep things going. There aren't enough subscribers.
People complaining about not being able to play their particular favourite ships or ships "they need" because they have to buy them from the game store or purchase something else from the game store in order to buy them from their fleets, or play the lottery with lock boxes, are people who don't understand how good they have it with this game.
The Developers have to make money in order to keep the game afloat, and the trade-off (with the game being f2p) is that some things must be paid for, by the vast majority of players (who are not willing or able to play long hours to get around this), who are not the minority who post on this forum on a regular basis.
I don't know the numbers, but I have no doubt that the percentage of players who spend large amounts of money to buy zen, or who play 24/7 (or close to it), is very very small compared to the rest of the playerbase. These people tend to be the most vocal and the most willing to show off, but they are not the norm, regardless of what they think, themselves.
The rerelease of T5 ships as T6 is an economic necessity for the developers, don't whine. You've had plenty of time to prepare for it, and you can't play completely for free forever (unless you sacrifice your REAL life).
"Intelligence is finite, stupidity is infinite" -- Umberto Eco
Annoyed, not really. Well perhaps when I've forgotten to turn the lockbox spam announcements off?
But participating. Nope, no 20-30 ships for me with real or grinded money, that's past my limit. Annoyed, nope when DR came around and I went to see if any characters were worth rerolling .. well most had half a dozen free endgame ships
No lockboxes .. cause I've played PW games and know better.
You can easily ignore that game and "succeed" (Er-mer-gud i'm not the best p2w dps .. so what?)
Is the game going down a possibly annoying dill-2-win/pwn/play path, quite possibly with the recent crafting/upgrade system and abandoned queue system.
Overall probably the most free junk I've gotten in any MMO by far, and one of the better FTP<->PTP hybrid virtial cash systems out there. At least untill the virtual economy goes to pot, then it fails hard fast.
This game company has to make money some how, what they have set up seems pretty reasonable. A person can get sucked into putting a lot of dough$ into a single ship, that can be troublesome if said ship becomes obsolete in the future. Still a lot of consoles are universal and can be used on any ship.
I'd just like them see focus more microtransactions on ship skins, model variants, pylon variants, saucer variants, etc.
You know, focus a bit more on the costume part of ships. Stuff like ship shield effects, hull effects, exhaust effects, deflector effects, lights can all be ship costume options sold for zen.
I would buy ****. I seriously would.
Give me the ability to buy a skin for my beams to make them look like phasers or something other than AP and I would throw money at my screen. I'd pay 5000 zen just to change my beam looks and sounds!
Yep. After CoH got shut down this is the best F2P business model out there.
OH a lover of COH yep played it for years loved every minute of it, so sad when it was closed, as it was still making a profit.
Don't despair tho they are making City Of Titans. http://cityoftitans.com/
an example of a micro transaction is the small amount of dilthium used to make a PADD for a training manual, unfortunately, where they screwed up there is converting a (free) bridge officer to a manual costs nothing.
I've made perhaps 30 PADDs (microtransaction) and used maybe 3 of them and the rest sit in my bank unused
To OP: Opinion of PVE-only player. No, this game is very friendly (I spend 20 EUR a year to support devs and I honestly don't have the need to spend more).
And Cryptic capitalizes on people believing that jibber-jabber instead of using some common sense and buying the ships off of the exchange for far less money. :rolleyes:
It's still not "jibber-jabber".
Yes, the odds of winning in one box is 1%. The odds of winning on the next box is 1%. And on the next box, it's still 1%.
The odds of winning *once* in a hundred boxes, is a different story. You can calculate those combined odds. (it's still not remotely 100%, though)
The "don't know statistics" people are the ones who say "But I've opened 100 boxes at 1%, I should have gotten a win!"
Comments
Actually, they do change. If you approach the lock box system, for example, with 100 boxes you have a 63.4% chance (with the hypothetical 1% odds of a ship) of winning in at least one case (one minus the odds of total failure). If you open one and get nothing (which is a 99% probability) the odds of winning with the remaining 99 drop to 63.03% and so on.
The more you lose, the lower your odds become over the total chances you have left. So the only certain way of winning is to take those 100 lock box keys and sell them on the exchange. Simple as that.
Notable missions: Apex [AEI], Gemini [SSF], Trident [AEI], Evolution's Smile [SSF], Transcendence
Looking for something new to play? I've started building Foundry missions again in visual novel form!
It's the crafting and upgrading that requires Dil which irks me.
SWTOR does crafting right. There, you just gather the mats and craft. No excess currency needed.
If they remove dilithium from crafting and either lower the dil cost or remove it completely from the upgrade system, and I'll be happy to spend more money.
Now the XP problems and the timegates on everything is a whole other can of worms.
Regards
It doesn't matter if people don't understand the numbers. It doesn't matter if they complain anyway. It's a matter of principle. It's about not hiding information that may be unfavorable from your customers. That's why we put nutritional information on food packages, even if people don't read it.
That is not how probability works. They are independent chances with every box. Open 1 and it is a 1% chance to win the ship. Open 3 boxes, each has a 1% chance. 100 boxes, every one has a 1% chance. You do not change your probability by opening boxes.
That is not how probability works. While the chance of winning the grand prize remains the same per box opened, nonetheless, the chance of having won (!= winning) increases, overall, after having opened a lot of them. I.e., the chance of NOT having won after having opened, say, a million lock boxes is as good as zero.
That's not how probability works, exactly correct from a purely abstract mathematical perspective. No argument.
However, those of who write code professionally also know that it is impossible to get a truly random result from a computer. Computers are designed from the ground up to be completely predictable. It is possible to get a stuck seed, etc.
One of my favorite approaches to "RNG" in software is the Random.org Coin Toss. They don't rely on the operating system to provide a unique seed:
I have no idea how Cryptic implements seed sourcing.
Anyway none of this changes the main point. While a software program can possibly begin to build a bias towards a result when generation is "too fast" and the seed not truly randomized, at the end of the day each "toss of the coin" is its own unique event in the entire universe.
Which is more than kind of cool when you think about it.
You can spend NO MONEY AT ALL up to level 50 and enjoy yourself.
Do they offer paid upgrades and other items that require purchase? Sure, they have to make money to keep things going. There aren't enough subscribers.
People complaining about not being able to play their particular favourite ships or ships "they need" because they have to buy them from the game store or purchase something else from the game store in order to buy them from their fleets, or play the lottery with lock boxes, are people who don't understand how good they have it with this game.
The Developers have to make money in order to keep the game afloat, and the trade-off (with the game being f2p) is that some things must be paid for, by the vast majority of players (who are not willing or able to play long hours to get around this), who are not the minority who post on this forum on a regular basis.
I don't know the numbers, but I have no doubt that the percentage of players who spend large amounts of money to buy zen, or who play 24/7 (or close to it), is very very small compared to the rest of the playerbase. These people tend to be the most vocal and the most willing to show off, but they are not the norm, regardless of what they think, themselves.
The rerelease of T5 ships as T6 is an economic necessity for the developers, don't whine. You've had plenty of time to prepare for it, and you can't play completely for free forever (unless you sacrifice your REAL life).
But participating. Nope, no 20-30 ships for me with real or grinded money, that's past my limit. Annoyed, nope when DR came around and I went to see if any characters were worth rerolling .. well most had half a dozen free endgame ships
No lockboxes .. cause I've played PW games and know better.
You can easily ignore that game and "succeed" (Er-mer-gud i'm not the best p2w dps .. so what?)
Is the game going down a possibly annoying dill-2-win/pwn/play path, quite possibly with the recent crafting/upgrade system and abandoned queue system.
Overall probably the most free junk I've gotten in any MMO by far, and one of the better FTP<->PTP hybrid virtial cash systems out there. At least untill the virtual economy goes to pot, then it fails hard fast.
You know, focus a bit more on the costume part of ships. Stuff like ship shield effects, hull effects, exhaust effects, deflector effects, lights can all be ship costume options sold for zen.
I would buy ****. I seriously would.
Give me the ability to buy a skin for my beams to make them look like phasers or something other than AP and I would throw money at my screen. I'd pay 5000 zen just to change my beam looks and sounds!
sig
http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/5451/om71.jpg
It is a peculiar phenomenon that we can imagine events that defy the laws of the universe.
OH a lover of COH yep played it for years loved every minute of it, so sad when it was closed, as it was still making a profit.
Don't despair tho they are making City Of Titans.
http://cityoftitans.com/
big ones
and you are right to be annoyed with them
the game probably needs more microtransactions
an example of a micro transaction is the small amount of dilthium used to make a PADD for a training manual, unfortunately, where they screwed up there is converting a (free) bridge officer to a manual costs nothing.
I've made perhaps 30 PADDs (microtransaction) and used maybe 3 of them and the rest sit in my bank unused
It's still not "jibber-jabber".
Yes, the odds of winning in one box is 1%. The odds of winning on the next box is 1%. And on the next box, it's still 1%.
The odds of winning *once* in a hundred boxes, is a different story. You can calculate those combined odds. (it's still not remotely 100%, though)
The "don't know statistics" people are the ones who say "But I've opened 100 boxes at 1%, I should have gotten a win!"