After opening one million R&D boxes, the chance for your next box to contain a lockbox ship is the as it was for your first R&D box.
Everybody keeps saying that. And while true for the individual 'next' box, in terms of the chance of getting a ship, chances most certainly are cumulative for having *gotten* a ship by the time you opened a million boxes! Please, read carefully what I said: the per-roll chance of getting a ship, and the overall chance of having gotten one, after X tries, are vastly different.
If you roll a die 1 time, you have a 1:6 chance the number 6 will come up. If you roll said die a million times, the chances per roll are still 1:6, but it will be as good as impossible for the number 6 *not* to have come up by that time.
Hence, his assertion that, statistically, he should have gotten a ship after spending $300, is entirely correct. Said chance will still not be 100%, of course, but would certainly approach near 100% after having opened a million boxes.
Somehow I doubt that was the reason you were banned... they don't ban people for merely diagreeing or speakng out against current practices. They DO ban people for abusive language, etc. Are you telling the whole truth?
I didn't swear or use abusive language. I never do on these forums or their facebook page. I am old enough to know better. All I did was make a comment that a 1% chance seems like a greedy cash grab and that maybe they should raise the chance of getting the new ship to pay us back for all of the bugs and downtime lately. That is all that it took to get blocked on facebook.
Of course he was. No one that was ever banned on any forum has ever done anythnig wrong that would justify a ban. You can ask anyone that was banned.
I didn't swear or use abusive language. Unless the words "greedy cash grab" are abusive. If so then Cryptic has thin skin.
I also saw someone's comment on their page get deleted this morning, here was the comment; "I tried to play your game but after an 8 hour download it blue screened my computer twice, nice job."
To which someone else replied that although the game is buggy and the hamsters running the servers are often drunk, it had never happened to them on the three computers that they had played on since launch and that maybe it was the OP's computer that was the issue.
That comment and reply were deleted. No reply from Cryptic apologizing for the issue or offering suggestions, just deleted.
So granted it is their page and they can do what they like with it. But you are drinking too much of the Cryptic Koolaide if you think that their is no chance that they would delete or block, or ban anyone without reasonable cause.
Everybody keeps saying that. And while true for the individual 'next' box, in terms of the chance of getting a ship, chances most certainly are cumulative for having *gotten* a ship by the time you opened a million boxes! Please, read carefully what I said: the per-roll chance of getting a ship, and the overall chance of having gotten one, after X tries, are vastly different.
If you roll a die 1 time, you have a 1:6 chance the number 6 will come up. If you roll said die a million times, the chances per roll are still 1:6, but it will be as good as impossible for the number 6 *not* to have come up by that time.
Hence, his assertion that, statistically, he should have gotten a ship after spending $300, is entirely correct. Said chance will still not be 100%, of course, but would certainly approach near 100% after having opened a million boxes.
No individual is guaranteed to fall in the statistical average. No one can conclude from not getting a ship after x tries that the probability is different than assumed here.
Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
No individual is guaranteed to fall in the statistical average. No one can conclude from not getting a ship after x tries that the probability is different than assumed here.
Did you even read what I wrote?!
"If you roll a die 1 time, you have a 1:6 chance the number 6 will come up. If you roll said die a million times, the chances per roll are still 1:6, but it will be as good as impossible for the number 6 *not* to have come up by that time."
What I'm saying is, that if you roll a die a million times, the number 6 *not* having come up even once, is infinitesimal. If it weren't so, the chance would be closer to 1:1,000,000.
You're saying something entirely different; namely, that not having gotten a ship after opening a million boxes does not change the chance for the next box you open. Which is true, of course, but *not at all* what I was talking about (which was to say, that not having gotten a ship after a million times, is close to 100% improbable).
Yes. But did you read what post I was referring to?
The poster basically seemed to suggest that the assumed percentage for getting the prize was wrong, because he didn't get it after 300 tries. But that conclusion is wrong.
The chance of not getting any prize over million tries may be slim, but that doesn't mean that after one million failed attempts, the one million and 1 is practically guaranteed a prize.
Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
Yes. But did you read what post I was referring to?
The poster basically seemed to suggest that the assumed percentage for getting the prize was wrong, because he didn't get it after 300 tries. But that conclusion is wrong.
That conclusion is indeed wrong. 300 is simply too close to the intended odds: with a bit of bad luck, he could have opened a 1,000 boxes, and still have come up empty (and that would still be entirely within the specs, so to speak). But after a million tries, honestly, chances are he was one by then.
The chance of not getting any prize over million tries may be slim, but that doesn't mean that after one million failed attempts, the one million and 1 is practically guaranteed a prize.
On that we certainly agree. On his 1 million + 1's roll, chances of finally getting the ship would still be 1.1%.
Comments
Everybody keeps saying that. And while true for the individual 'next' box, in terms of the chance of getting a ship, chances most certainly are cumulative for having *gotten* a ship by the time you opened a million boxes! Please, read carefully what I said: the per-roll chance of getting a ship, and the overall chance of having gotten one, after X tries, are vastly different.
If you roll a die 1 time, you have a 1:6 chance the number 6 will come up. If you roll said die a million times, the chances per roll are still 1:6, but it will be as good as impossible for the number 6 *not* to have come up by that time.
Hence, his assertion that, statistically, he should have gotten a ship after spending $300, is entirely correct. Said chance will still not be 100%, of course, but would certainly approach near 100% after having opened a million boxes.
You've got better odds at getting one that was underpriced off the exchange than pulling one via a pack.
I got one off the Exchange today for 300 million, and then just missed another that was only going for 100 million.
I also saw one that was listed for under 50 million but it was unavailable in the time it took me to double click :mad:
I didn't swear or use abusive language. I never do on these forums or their facebook page. I am old enough to know better. All I did was make a comment that a 1% chance seems like a greedy cash grab and that maybe they should raise the chance of getting the new ship to pay us back for all of the bugs and downtime lately. That is all that it took to get blocked on facebook.
I didn't swear or use abusive language. Unless the words "greedy cash grab" are abusive. If so then Cryptic has thin skin.
I also saw someone's comment on their page get deleted this morning, here was the comment; "I tried to play your game but after an 8 hour download it blue screened my computer twice, nice job."
To which someone else replied that although the game is buggy and the hamsters running the servers are often drunk, it had never happened to them on the three computers that they had played on since launch and that maybe it was the OP's computer that was the issue.
That comment and reply were deleted. No reply from Cryptic apologizing for the issue or offering suggestions, just deleted.
So granted it is their page and they can do what they like with it. But you are drinking too much of the Cryptic Koolaide if you think that their is no chance that they would delete or block, or ban anyone without reasonable cause.
No individual is guaranteed to fall in the statistical average. No one can conclude from not getting a ship after x tries that the probability is different than assumed here.
When it first came out, it was on the Exchange for around 500 million.
Now it's not even visible on the Exchange anymore as people "trade" them for beyond 500 million.
Like all things out of reach in STO, I can now completely ignore these ships like I did the Bug ship and they eventually just become obsolete.
I was interested in getting ALL the T6 ships for their Starship Mastery, but this one would most likely interfere with my THY III anyway.
Did you even read what I wrote?!
"If you roll a die 1 time, you have a 1:6 chance the number 6 will come up. If you roll said die a million times, the chances per roll are still 1:6, but it will be as good as impossible for the number 6 *not* to have come up by that time."
What I'm saying is, that if you roll a die a million times, the number 6 *not* having come up even once, is infinitesimal. If it weren't so, the chance would be closer to 1:1,000,000.
You're saying something entirely different; namely, that not having gotten a ship after opening a million boxes does not change the chance for the next box you open. Which is true, of course, but *not at all* what I was talking about (which was to say, that not having gotten a ship after a million times, is close to 100% improbable).
The poster basically seemed to suggest that the assumed percentage for getting the prize was wrong, because he didn't get it after 300 tries. But that conclusion is wrong.
The chance of not getting any prize over million tries may be slim, but that doesn't mean that after one million failed attempts, the one million and 1 is practically guaranteed a prize.
That conclusion is indeed wrong.
On that we certainly agree. On his 1 million + 1's roll, chances of finally getting the ship would still be 1.1%.