Is this normal for an event???

tuanicus115

So I just recently came back to this game, I am having a great time.

I see they are having a promo Romulan duty officer pack event. You open the packs for duty officers and a chance to win a Jem Hadar Attack ship.

I thought why not, I will try a few. Needless to say, I got stupid, 100 dollars worth of Romulan officer packs later, I have no ship to show for it. Is this normal for one of these events???? If so, what a total rip off LOL...

Has anyone else experienced the utter bad luck I have during this event? Perhaps their events are just are just a rip off?

fmgtorres1979

tuanicus115 wrote: »

So I just recently came back to this game, I am having a great time.

I see they are having a promo Romulan duty officer pack event. You open the packs for duty officers and a chance to win a Jem Hadar Attack ship.

I thought why not, I will try a few. Needless to say, I got stupid, 100 dollars worth of Romulan officer packs later, I have no ship to show for it. Is this normal for one of these events???? If so, what a total rip off LOL...

Has anyone else experienced the utter bad luck I have during this event? Perhaps their events are just are just a rip off?

Well, I don't know, it depends on how many ships are given per number of packs. And then it's probabilities. You could have got one with a single pack, you may never get one.

I've opened a few lock boxes for instance and never got one of the "premium" ships but you do see the announcements all the time (of people getting one). The thing is, there are millions of players...

mightybobcnc

Yes this is normal. The drop rate on the 'grand prize' in lockboxes and in these doff pack promos is less than 1 or 2%. But like fmgtorres1979 said, it's about probabilities. I know people that have gotten the 'grand prize' after 1, 5, 10, or 20 boxes, and I know others that have spent $100, $200, $300 and not gotten the ship they were after.

cbrjwrr

The only guaranteed way to get the ship is paying 500 mill EC on the exchange.

lindaleff

Simply put, buy keys instead, and sell them for EC. In the world of lockboxes and these officer pack promotions, statistics are non existent. And statistics don't work in real life either. If statistics did work, then if the odds would be 1/100 to get the ship, that would make the 50th box a 50/50 chance, and the 100th box would then be a guaranteed ship. But in the real world, the 20th box is still a 1/100 chance, and the 100th box is still a 1/100 chance, and even the 400th box is still going to be a 1/100 chance. It is basically a slot machine or a roulette wheel, when each pull of the handle, or each spin of the wheel is still a random chance. So, you absolutely can and will spend a hundred Euros, and only get duty officer packs and mining claims. That is how Vegas is successful. So if you want the ship, do the smart business decision. Sell keys instead, and simply buy the ship with EC.

And of course, let's say you want a Lobi ship. Let's say you are working for the Jem'Hadar Dreadnought Carrier. Again, sell keys, and buy the ship with EC. Here is the arithmetic.

* The Jem'Hadar Dreadnought 800 Lobi.
* With 4 Lobi per box opened, 800 Lobi is 200 keys.
* Keys cost 125 Zen each.
* 200 keys is the equal to €180 or $250, which is the cost of a Lifetime Subscription.
* So your Jem'Hadar Dreadnought just cost you a Lifetime Subscription.

*Now you look on the Exchange, where you find the Jem'Hadar Dreadnought Carrier is 100 million.
*53 keys sold will get you that 100 million, with some left over.
*Your Jem'Hadar Dreadnought just cost you €48 or $66.25.

Moral of the story? Always go the keys to EC route.

redsnake721

lindaleff wrote: »

Simply put, buy keys instead, and sell them for EC. In the world of lockboxes and these officer pack promotions, statistics are non existent. And statistics don't work in real life either. If statistics did work, then if the odds would be 1/100 to get the ship, that would make the 50th box a 50/50 chance, and the 100th box would then be a guaranteed ship. But in the real world, the 20th box is still a 1/100 chance, and the 100th box is still a 1/100 chance, and even the 400th box is still going to be a 1/100 chance. It is basically a slot machine or a roulette wheel, when each pull of the handle, or each spin of the wheel is still a random chance. So, you absolutely can and will spend a hundred Euros, and only get duty officer packs and mining claims. That is how Vegas is successful. So if you want the ship, do the smart business decision. Sell keys instead, and simply buy the ship with EC.

And of course, let's say you want a Lobi ship. Let's say you are working for the Jem'Hadar Dreadnought Carrier. Again, sell keys, and buy the ship with EC. Here is the arithmetic.

* The Jem'Hadar Dreadnought 800 Lobi.
* With 4 Lobi per box opened, 800 Lobi is 200 keys.
* Keys cost 125 Zen each.
* 200 keys is the equal to €180 or $250, which is the cost of a Lifetime Subscription.
* So your Jem'Hadar Dreadnought just cost you a Lifetime Subscription.

*Now you look on the Exchange, where you find the Jem'Hadar Dreadnought Carrier is 100 million.
*53 keys sold will get you that 100 million, with some left over.
*Your Jem'Hadar Dreadnought just cost you €48 or $66.25.

Moral of the story? Always go the keys to EC route.

This is how its done. I have every lockbox ship in the game and never opened one lock-box. It never fails. Whenever they release a new lock-box ship or release a ship in a Doff pack people will drop hundreds of dollers opening them, Not get what they want. Go on the forums and rant and rage and curse at cryptic for taking their money. Last year there was a thread from a player that spent over a thousand and then posted that he was going to sue Cryptic and file a complaint with some commerce authority and on and on unless they issued him a JHAS and that they had 48 hours to comply. Needless to say he did not get his ship, but it was an epic thread to say the least.

tuanicus115

Thanks for the responses!

Looks like keys it is from now on when I decide to spend.

greyhame3

Important thing to do is not to confuse probability with actual chances of winning something.

All probability does is tell you that buying more boxes is more likely to get you something than buying less. Doesn't mean you'll get them, since the chance is over everyone else who is buying them as well. Only way probability would work for giving you a strait up chance to win eventually would be if your previous chances were measured, and your chance of getting it in the next one was increased by how many you had opened before.

mandoknight89

lindaleff wrote: »

And statistics don't work in real life either. If statistics did work, then if the odds would be 1/100 to get the ship, that would make the 50th box a 50/50 chance, and the 100th box would then be a guaranteed ship. But in the real world, the 20th box is still a 1/100 chance, and the 100th box is still a 1/100 chance, and even the 400th box is still going to be a 1/100 chance. It is basically a slot machine or a roulette wheel, when each pull of the handle, or each spin of the wheel is still a random chance. So, you absolutely can and will spend a hundred Euros, and only get duty officer packs and mining claims. That is how Vegas is successful.

I don't think statistics work the way you think they should work. What you're describing is the Gambler's Fallacy, a misinterpretation of statistics.

Instead, statistics are useful for describing how one should expect the system to behave, not a prescription of occurrences but an average. The probability of getting a 1% chance at least once in a hundred rolls is about 63.4%, but the law of large numbers shows that in a sufficiently large sample size the statistics will trend towards the expected values. To guarantee that your results are close to the expected values for a 1% probability, you'll need a sample size of several thousand.

jbmaverick

mandoknight89 wrote: »

I don't think statistics work the way you think they should work. What you're describing is the Gambler's Fallacy, a misinterpretation of statistics.

Instead, statistics are useful for describing how one should expect the system to behave, not a prescription of occurrences but an average. The probability of getting a 1% chance at least once in a hundred rolls is about 63.4%, but the law of large numbers shows that in a sufficiently large sample size the statistics will trend towards the expected values. To guarantee that your results are close to the expected values for a 1% probability, you'll need a sample size of several thousand.

To simplify the above: each box is a 1% chance regardless of the boxes opened before it. You don't get a 50/50 chance on opening the 50th box. Statistics is an average, as said above. If you opened several million boxes with the appearance rate at 1%, you would see one in one-hundred boxes, but you can't expect the average to play out within the first few boxes.