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Forums > Home› Star Trek Online General Discussion

The Chances of Getting a JHAS are...

samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
edited March 2014 in Star Trek Online General Discussion
After looking through some old threads I calculated the odds of winning a ships in the original 100 C-Point packs was .5% and as stated in the blog the odds of winning the JHAS have been normalized for its price compared to the old packs. The new packs cost double + 75 Points (I'll get to the money conversion in a minute).

Therefore you would SEEM to have a 1.375% chance of wining one per pack. So if you open about 70-80 you should technically get one. Although i'm not going into probability math as it is absolutely awful. However, ZEN to C-Point conversion was 80 CP - 100 ZEN so that means the old packs were 125 ZEN in modern currency meaning your chances of winning it are 1.1% per pack. Which means you'll need about 90-100 packs for a nearly absolute chance of getting one.

Hope this helps!

Sources:

http://community.arcgames.com/en/news/star-trek-online/detail/3037383-duty-officer-pack-promo-is-live_

http://www.57th.net/startrek/article/796853/m/414350

http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=246648

https://support.arcgames.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/4136

Edit: To make the title more clear
"When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Post edited by samt296 on
«1

Comments

  • a3001a3001 Member Posts: 1,132 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    How I wish they'd stickie some of these stuff. But it's more than likely that this'll be locked since it might hurt PWE's cash cow.
    Rejoice JJ Trek people....

    http://www.arcgames.com/en/games/star-trek-online/news/detail/10052253

    Why are you not rejoicing?
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    a3001 wrote: »
    How I wish they'd stickie some of these stuff. But it's more than likely that this'll be locked since it might hurt PWE's cash cow.

    Well thanks! I like to think they are open minded but I have seen examples were they use the "thread moving" tool to seemingly hide threads they don't like. *shrug* All I can do is try right? :)
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • robin74robin74 Member Posts: 114 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    So let me get into the absolutely awful probability math for you :)
    samt296 wrote: »
    chances of winning it are 1.1% per pack. Which means you'll need about 90-100 packs for a nearly absolute chance of getting one.

    If chance are 1.1% pere pack, you won't get a "nearly absolute chance of getting one" by opening 90-100 packs. That's how many you need to open _on_average_. At 1.1% per box, opening 100 packs gives you about 67% of getting (at least one) bug. Personally, I don't find it to be "nearly absolute". To get to 95% chance you would need to open about 270 boxes. To get to 99% you would need about 420 boxes.
  • sonnikkusonnikku Member Posts: 77 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    Some people will need to open hundreds to get one to help offset those that got it on their second try. It all depends on how lucky you are. It's possible to open 1000 boxes and not get the ship.
    [SIGPIC]http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=94154940000&dateline=1390007378[/SIGPIC]
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    robin74 wrote: »
    So let me get into the absolutely awful probability math for you :)



    If chance are 1.1% pere pack, you won't get a "nearly absolute chance of getting one" by opening 90-100 packs. That's how many you need to open _on_average_. At 1.1% per box, opening 100 packs gives you about 67% of getting (at least one) bug. Personally, I don't find it to be "nearly absolute". To get to 95% chance you would need to open about 270 boxes. To get to 99% you would need about 420 boxes.

    I'm just giving some rough information to help people out... See "I'm not going into probability math..."
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shadowwraith77shadowwraith77 Member Posts: 6,395 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    The problem I tend to find with odds factored to a game, is when you rely on a computer system to determine randomness it itself must follow a set algorithm like mapping, which is much different than say rolling a die or flipping a coin where real world applications can have a drastic effect on it. :confused:

    A computer is programmed to provide as close to randomness as it can by its programming, and is much different than say you deciding you want pizza for dinner tonight out of thin air. :P
    tumblr_nq9ec3BSAy1qj6sk2o2_500_zpspkqw0mmk.gif


    Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!

  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    robin74 wrote: »
    So let me get into the absolutely awful probability math for you :)



    If chance are 1.1% pere pack, you won't get a "nearly absolute chance of getting one" by opening 90-100 packs. That's how many you need to open _on_average_. At 1.1% per box, opening 100 packs gives you about 67% of getting (at least one) bug. Personally, I don't find it to be "nearly absolute". To get to 95% chance you would need to open about 270 boxes. To get to 99% you would need about 420 boxes.

    Disregard my other post... Thanks for adding the additional info is very useful!
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • ffttfftt Member Posts: 715 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    samt296 wrote: »
    Therefore you would SEEM to have a 1.375% chance of wining one per pack. So if you open about 70-80 you should technically get one. Although i'm not going into probability math as it is absolutely awful.

    Even though my degree was in math I understand your sentiment perfectly. Luckily, this is an easy one. (1-0.01375)^80 ~ .3303... So after 80 boxes at 1.375% you still have a roughly a 1 in 3 chance of *not* getting one. Not bad odds, but not that great either. IMO odds not worth dropping $80 on. (Of course you do have about a 1 in 10^149 chance of getting 80 ;) )
  • dathranselanedathranselane Member Posts: 1 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    If you're planning to open 80+ boxes, try this instead: sell the boxes. Even at 6M per box, 80 boxes will net you 480M, which is enough to buy one of the JHAS on the Exchange, as their price has been steadily creeping down.
  • lucho80lucho80 Member Posts: 6,600 Bug Hunter
    edited March 2014
    dathranselane wrote: »
    If you're planning to open 80+ boxes, try this instead: sell the boxes. Even at 6M per box, 80 boxes will net you 480M, which is enough to buy one of the JHAS on the Exchange, as their price has been steadily creeping down.

    Yup, it's almost always smarter to sell the lottery ticket than to try your luck. Then again, a fleetmate today opened 2 JHAS out of 8 boxes. Took them straight to the bank.
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    lucho80 wrote: »
    Yup, it's almost always smarter to sell the lottery ticket than to try your luck. Then again, a fleetmate today opened 2 JHAS out of 8 boxes. Took them straight to the bank.

    LOL... I sell keys on the exchange when I want a ship. Never been lucky. A smart person will sit on it for 3-6 months till it's worth 800 mil+ again.
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • lebtronlebtron Member Posts: 296 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    lucho80 wrote: »
    Yup, it's almost always smarter to sell the lottery ticket than to try your luck. Then again, a fleetmate today opened 2 JHAS out of 8 boxes. Took them straight to the bank.

    And I opened 965 lockboxes since I play this game... without any ship... I guess thats similar impossible, but still happens:)
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • timothyre99timothyre99 Member Posts: 366 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    Well, if we want to talk about luck on this thread, I'll share mine with you. In 11 boxes (22 total because of 11 promo boxes and 11 rom survivor doff packs) I got both a JHAS and TWO Suliban cell ships. That is what I call luck.
  • daan2006daan2006 Member Posts: 5,346 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    timothyre99 wrote: »
    Well, if we want to talk about luck on this thread, I'll share mine with you. In 11 boxes (22 total because of 11 promo boxes and 11 rom survivor doff packs) I got both a JHAS and TWO Suliban cell ships. That is what I call luck.

    look up in the sky to see if a asteroid is coming for ya :D
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    swimwear off risa not fixed
    system Lord Baal is dead
    macronius wrote: »
    This! Their ability to outdo their own failures is quite impressive. If only this power could be harnessed for good.
  • bernatkbernatk Member Posts: 1,089 Bug Hunter
    edited March 2014
    lebtron wrote: »
    And I opened 965 lockboxes since I play this game... without any ship... I guess thats similar impossible, but still happens:)

    Same with me. Opened 125 promotion pack without any ship. (Yeah, I realized I should have sold them on exchange instead lol.)
    Tck7dQ2.jpg
    Dahar Master Mary Sue                                               Fleet Admiral Bloody Mary
  • groomofweirdgroomofweird Member Posts: 1,045 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    Those numbers are useful indeed, and I have done my usual punt £30 and failed, bringing my total spent trying to get this ship to £60.
    But never discount the crazyness that can come from drops sometimes.
    I literally know someone in my fleet that dropped one on his fifth try (major grats to him but kinda hate him a little lol, I jest).
    On the flipside I had/still have (thankyou gameplay bug) an FA in my fleet who dropped four figures (in euros) into the packs (insane I know but i s**t you not) and didn't drop it, as you can imagine I've not seen him ingame much since lol. I should never have mentioned to him after he told me about it that he could have bought one with ec from selling keys for a fraction of the price.
    Point is those are literally two of th extreme examples of luck and major bad luck (and tunnel vision in his case).
    Its a gamble and with any gamble its all really about luck or just pure spending power.
    *looks at daughters shiny new laptop and envisages his bugship* I hope she appreciates it lmfao!
    Nimoysig1_zpsr79joxz3.jpg
    "If this will be our end, then I will have them make SUCH an end as to be worthy of rememberance! Out of torpedos you say?! Find me the ferengi!".
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    groomofweird wrote: »
    Those numbers are useful indeed, and I have done my usual punt £30 and failed, bringing my total spent trying to get this ship to £60.
    But never discount the crazyness that can come from drops sometimes.
    I literally know someone in my fleet that dropped one on his fifth try (major grats to him but kinda hate him a little lol, I jest).
    On the flipside I had/still have (thankyou gameplay bug) an FA in my fleet who dropped four figures (in euros) into the packs (insane I know but i s**t you not) and didn't drop it, as you can imagine I've not seen him ingame much since lol. I should never have mentioned to him after he told me about it that he could have bought one with ec from selling keys for a fraction of the price.
    Point is those are literally two of th extreme examples of luck and major bad luck (and tunnel vision in his case).
    Its a gamble and with any gamble its all really about luck or just pure spending power.
    *looks at daughters shiny new laptop and envisages his bugship* I hope she appreciates it lmfao!

    LOL... It's pretty sad when a virtual item costs as much as the computer you use it on.
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    sopwithsnipe wrote: »
    I bought 2 packs with my stipend for the lobi and got a JHAS on the second pack. It was a nice surprise since I'd long ago resigned myself that I'd never win or afford one. No way I'll ever pay over 200 mil for anything in this game.

    If you invest properly you can make 200 mil out of about 50-60$ strait up OR for free if you know how the exchange works... I'm pretty good at turning a profit without gouging people. Just the other day a person listed an item for 2.5 mil that's worth 15 mil+ so sometimes people are stupid and you may get lucky!
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • icsairgunsicsairguns Member Posts: 1,504 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    shadowwraith77 wrote: »
    The problem I tend to find with odds factored to a game, is when you rely on a computer system to determine randomness it itself must follow a set algorithm like mapping, which is much different than say rolling a die or flipping a coin where real world applications can have a drastic effect on it. :confused:

    A computer is programmed to provide as close to randomness as it can by its programming, and is much different than say you deciding you want pizza for dinner tonight out of thin air. :P

    This ^^^^^^^


    to confirm it I live in eastern time zone USA and I have told this to fleet mates and they see it as well. and it has worked out for us all.

    at the top of every even number hour EST on weekdays before 7pm. the 1st 22 min of that hour the drop rates are increased you can tell this by the amount of system fly ins about ships awarded to people.

    fleet members said im crazy until they started watching the flyins. then they were all like your right. so 3 of us started playing around a little buying 1 key off exchange each day. and opening one box at the top of even number hours EST and in a 5 days we all had gotten a lockbox ship. now tell me its its truly random and not just an algorithm.
    Trophies for killing FEDS ahh those were the days. Ch'ar%20POST%20LoR.JPG


  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    icsairguns wrote: »
    This ^^^^^^^


    to confirm it I live in eastern time zone USA and I have told this to fleet mates and they see it as well. and it has worked out for us all.

    at the top of every even number hour EST on weekdays before 7pm. the 1st 22 min of that hour the drop rates are increased you can tell this by the amount of system fly ins about ships awarded to people.

    fleet members said im crazy until they started watching the flyins. then they were all like your right. so 3 of us started playing around a little buying 1 key off exchange each day. and opening one box at the top of even number hours EST and in a 5 days we all had gotten a lockbox ship. now tell me its its truly random and not just an algorithm.

    I think that's when people get off work and come home to open the damn things... As for your friends and you I think it was just coincidence.
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    icsairguns wrote: »
    This ^^^^^^^


    to confirm it I live in eastern time zone USA and I have told this to fleet mates and they see it as well. and it has worked out for us all.

    at the top of every even number hour EST on weekdays before 7pm. the 1st 22 min of that hour the drop rates are increased you can tell this by the amount of system fly ins about ships awarded to people.

    fleet members said im crazy until they started watching the flyins. then they were all like your right. so 3 of us started playing around a little buying 1 key off exchange each day. and opening one box at the top of even number hours EST and in a 5 days we all had gotten a lockbox ship. now tell me its its truly random and not just an algorithm.

    It's an interesting idea but I'm very skeptical.
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    Ya know I think if you open 1000+ lockboxes Cryptic should give you a JHAS in thanks for spending 1000 bucks on this game.
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shadowwraith77shadowwraith77 Member Posts: 6,395 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    samt296 wrote: »
    Ya know I think if you open 1000+ lockboxes Cryptic should give you a JHAS in thanks for spending 1000 bucks on this game.

    Ha fat chance of that, but we can always keep asking for it to happen.
    tumblr_nq9ec3BSAy1qj6sk2o2_500_zpspkqw0mmk.gif


    Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!

  • groomofweirdgroomofweird Member Posts: 1,045 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    And no doubt we will lol!
    Nimoysig1_zpsr79joxz3.jpg
    "If this will be our end, then I will have them make SUCH an end as to be worthy of rememberance! Out of torpedos you say?! Find me the ferengi!".
  • icsairgunsicsairguns Member Posts: 1,504 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    samt296 wrote: »
    I think that's when people get off work and come home to open the damn things... As for your friends and you I think it was just coincidence.

    its not the 7:00 hour that this happens, its 6pm 4pm 2pm noon 10am 8am all est just watch it a few days.
    Trophies for killing FEDS ahh those were the days. Ch'ar%20POST%20LoR.JPG


  • wildweasalwildweasal Member Posts: 1,053 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    samt296 wrote: »
    After looking through some old threads I calculated the odds of winning a ships in the original 100 C-Point packs was .5% and as stated in the blog the odds of winning the JHAS have been normalized for its price compared to the old packs. The new packs cost double + 75 Points (I'll get to the money conversion in a minute).

    Therefore you would SEEM to have a 1.375% chance of wining one per pack. So if you open about 70-80 you should technically get one. Although i'm not going into probability math as it is absolutely awful. However, ZEN to C-Point conversion was 80 CP - 100 ZEN so that means the old packs were 125 ZEN in modern currency meaning your chances of winning it are 1.1% per pack. Which means you'll need about 90-100 packs for a nearly absolute chance of getting one.

    Hope this helps!

    Sources:

    http://community.arcgames.com/en/news/star-trek-online/detail/3037383-duty-officer-pack-promo-is-live_

    http://www.57th.net/startrek/article/796853/m/414350

    http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=246648

    https://support.arcgames.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/4136

    Edit: To make the title more clear
    The correct chance is .333
    3ondby_zpsikszslyx.jpg
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    wildweasal wrote: »
    The correct chance is .333

    On normal lock boxes it's about that but notice "the chances have been equalized due to the increased price." Check the sources at the end of my OP....
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • roadghostroadghost Member Posts: 394 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    I had one drop on the 7th box I opened. Then went ahead and bought 12 promo crates because I was feeling awesome. No more ships, but since the survivor packs were going for 2mil+ a pop at the time I still made almost lockbox keys type of profit.

    On the downside, as a parent of a 12 year old who also plays, the bug ship is going to him. Figure he'll get more enjoyment using it to fight dinosaur ships than I would.
  • samt296samt296 Member Posts: 157 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    roadghost wrote: »
    I had one drop on the 7th box I opened. Then went ahead and bought 12 promo crates because I was feeling awesome. No more ships, but since the survivor packs were going for 2mil+ a pop at the time I still made almost lockbox keys type of profit.

    On the downside, as a parent of a 12 year old who also plays, the bug ship is going to him. Figure he'll get more enjoyment using it to fight dinosaur ships than I would.

    I don't mean to pry but I think that's a huge mistake... It's like giving him a Lamborghini. Such I waste on someone who can't possible appreciate it. If nothing else sell It for a ****load of money and buy you each 1-2 lockbox or lobi ships off of the exchange. Much better I think....
    "When people ask stupid questions I feel obligated to give sarcastic answers."

    Keltoi Class... fan design. You KNOW you want one In-game!

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • warmaker001bwarmaker001b Member Posts: 9,205 Arc User
    edited March 2014
    samt296 wrote: »
    I don't mean to pry but I think that's a huge mistake... It's like giving him a Lamborghini. Such I waste on someone who can't possible appreciate it. If nothing else sell It for a ****load of money and buy you each 1-2 lockbox or lobi ships off of the exchange. Much better I think....

    It's his son, his money, his winnings. It's his business to do what he wants.

    That said, in the spirit of this thread, "The Chances of Getting a JHAS are in Cryptic's Favor." That is all! :P
    XzRTofz.gif
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