test content
Logo
What is the Arc Client?
Install Arc
Active Subscribers
dakilla3000
Member Posts: 28 Arc User
Just out of curiosity, how many active subscribers or users do we have currently? I can't remember when this figure was last released.
Post edited by dakilla3000 on
0
Comments
They have never released the number.
They had "over a million Cryptic accounts" (which included Champs and free forum accounts) at launch.
My napkin math from lockboxes says... Maybe around 300k active around content releases.
How do lockboxes effect subscriber numbers? The majority are probably purchased by "free" players.
(Whatever the number only ~10% are reportedly paying to keep the game online - which is interesting itself imo).
What do content releases have to do with subscriptions? The game is free to play. You dont have to subscribe to play the content.
I can only anecdotally add that I consistently witness a close relationship between content releases and subscriptions, as I know of many people who resubscribe for a month to test out the waters once more.
You take the frequency of lockbox announcements.
You assume that for every one, there are 200 non-winning sales.
You have to guess the average number a player buys.
Run that through the purchasing stats they gave us about winter giftboxes to estimate number of non-buyers who still spend money.
And then take Dan Stahl's "90% of players spend nothing" comment.
That gives you an estimate for the playerbase. Fraught with perils. Most of the guesses will result in you underestimating the population. You can play with numbers.
300k seems conservatively reasonable to me.
That also gives you a set of guesses since the expenses of the game can be estimated.
Bare bones I think you need around $5 million.
That works out to $1.40 a month per player at 300k players. Of course, if only 10% spend, that's $14 a month to break even. The more people spend even a little, the more the number goes down. Stipend spending doesn't count for these purposes.
If anything, I'd guess that all means the number is probably over 300k. And it's not likely dramatically below if that's break even cost because my budget accounted for the 20 extra staffers. If they're expanding, it means people are spending more than $14 a month, more than 10% are spending, or the number is over 300k.