Packs

SakuLv - Dreamweaver wrote: »

I do have one friend who buys packs depending on intuition. (im not talking about 200+ packs but 1-5 packs)
She always have gotten good stuff.

Lol sounds like a friend who doesnt want to tell you the amount of SCing she does.

OP: The problem is not with your 410x tokens, the problem is with your erronous assumption:

where other people are able to get stuff not problem?

Very likely, those who do get lots of stuff out of packs are often not very honest about the amount of packs they opened.

peckked wrote: »

It also largely depends on what pack you're opening.

For example:

The chance of getting nothing but tokens out of 100 Lucky Coral Packs is about 13%
The chance of getting nothing but tokens out of 100 Ark's Parcel Packs is about 0.5%

The chance of getting tokens from Lucky Coral Packs is 98%. The chance of getting tokens from Ark's Parcel is about 94.8255% or roughly 95%. While Ark's Parcel does have better odds, your numbers there are pretty off.

@OP
I don't know why they asked you to post this here. The only thing you're going to learn from here is that gambling doesn't work the way you think it does, and that getting nothing but tokens after 400 packs is just bad luck. Most people get mostly tokens. The odds are not in your favor. And everytime you open a pack you have over a 90% chance that you will just get a token. There are some lucky **** out there that have better than average number of items received, and some unfortunate fellas like yourself that have a lower than average number of items received. You are unlikely to get compensated just because you gambled and lost.

SHIMBERLY - Heavens Tear wrote: »

When i buy gold with cash ill get a few packs then sell the gold.Most who do get the pack and that win a mega amount of goodies are prob written into the vip pw book and pw wants their vip people to continue spending so they keep rewarding them with a better % rate,though it sounds like a conspiracy its also a good company move.

I've known some pretty heavy spenders who loved packs. They didn't win nearly as much as they claimed. They'd spend like forever opening packs, must've easily opened a thousand. Then bragged because they got a few good items. Was pretty much all of them. I think most people who have good luck from packs have a case of gambler's blindness.

oVenusArmanio wrote: »

The chance of getting tokens from Lucky Coral Packs is 98%. The chance of getting tokens from Ark's Parcel is about 94.8255% or roughly 95%. While Ark's Parcel does have better odds, your numbers there are pretty off.

The numbers by peckked are actually correct. For example, the chance of getting only tokens from Lucky Coral packs (98% chance) in 100 trials is 0.98^100*100% = 13.26%

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

Lol sounds like a friend who doesnt want to tell you the amount of SCing she does.

Shes not a casher ;D
Shes smart enough not to spend money into game like this

While normally I would tell someone in your situation that the probabilty of you getting a long streak of "bad luck" is still reasonable, if your data is correct, then it is not. Not reasonable to expect your results that is.

Using 1% as the criteria for a fail, and allowing for 410 tries, the packs would have to have greater than a 98.88% chance of getting tokens in order for your outcome to be "within statistical norms" given a 99% confidence level.

Since the worst pack suggested has only a 98% chance of getting tokens, 410 tokens in a row without a single "nice" item has a probability of 1 in 3,956 ... that means that on average if 3,956 people all buy 410 packs with a 98% chance of tokens, ONE will get all tokens ... all the rest will get at least one nice item. One in 3,956 is WAY below 1 in 100.

NOTE: 98% and 98.88% might sound close, but that is really a 1.12% chance of something nice vs. a 2% chance, which is almost 80% higher.

Since this is the ONLY peice of data, the NULL hypothesis (that is, that there is nothing wrong with the process) has to be rejected (that is, you're completely justified in feeling the way you do). However, there are likely hundreds of people (well, maybe 3,955 of them) who have also opened 410 packs and have NOT recceived only Tokens. But that is just an assumption.

So, the richeousness of your indignation is supported, at least mathemaitcally, but I'm not sure what else you can do about it ... except maybe say "I told you so".

Good Luck!

er, I mean ... "Better Luck in the Future"?

Real World Equivalent: "I spent my entire paycheck on lottery tickets and now I can't eat this week or pay my rent. Time to polish my guns."

At least those packs gave you enough for rent (pots, dolls).

To me this should be a learning experience. If you're not ready to lose, don't gamble. I'll be sad if C/S gives you anything 'cause then you won't learn.... but let me know if they do so I can start sending in 3 years worth of tickets. hehe

Yes. the people who cash more get better things.....
why?

Because they buy more packs! b:chuckle

Its like people who buy more instant scratch lottery tickets.
People who buy more, win more.

Yes, the chances of this happening are very very very low, but that doesn't mean 0. It's possible that it happens. So suck it up, and as peckked said, don't gamble if you're not ready to lose.

@Venus... Been to the Rockies lately?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/12/us/colorado-lightning-strike/
Odds of being struck by lightning comment made me think of that. b:shutup

@c... Sorry you had bad luck but that is the risk you take when gambling, as most here have said. I've been after a particular item myself and no such luck, it can be maddening for sure. I don't know if there's any truth to this but I've always personally believed that each character has a different sort of luck tied to them. For example, my main has decent pack and book-making luck (back when it was profitable now I don't even bother), but has an awful time with refining.

Could just be my experience... but anyways... play to your strengths. Sounds like packs just aren't for you.

A few years ago I opened around 500 packs and got only tokens. It's unlucky, sure, but that can happen when you gamble. At least you have tokens.

Xx_BeLLa_xX - Harshlands wrote: »

It's just luck, it's funny cause I buy maybe 30-50 packs a years and always get 3-4 big items out of it while I know people that open them by thousand and get nothing, it's random, yes I do know people that opened thousand of packs and got only tokens, it happen, if you wanted something save then you should have bought something else and merch, packs are a waste of money, I just suggest that to people that want to gamble a bit and open a few every now and then.

Yup, that's how I do packs. When I charge gold to get a specific item like the super inv stone i just got for one of my chars, and I have a little gold left over, I buy a few packs. Just for fun. If nothing else, I at least have some tokens to spend.

It's kind of like going to a casino with a set amount that you're going to spend. You're gambling that money with the knowledge that you're probably going to lose it, and you're using it to pay for having fun. Winning is just a bonus.