Strategy to make a 91+ LP genie
Comments
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I have a 91/100 genie and a 93/100 genie.
My strategy was.... *drumroll please*...
Buy them from others.
No, I'm not mocking this thread, lol. I have a pretty good idea related to this.
YOU have limits on your SP and your mirages, inventory space, and time. They are confines that you are attempting to work within to achieve your goal, and you are trying to figure out the most efficient way of utilizing them. However, why not think outside the box a bit:
Money, and other people.
Advertise in your server that you are willing to pay good money for genies with 81/90 or better LP, and then level them with your SP. You eliminate inventory space and time variables, which makes the calculations a lot easier. You could even persuade the person you are buying the genie from to lvl it to 99 before selling it to you, by perhaps offering a further cash incentive of a few extra million to do so. This could really reduce the SP cost of leveling them up to 100, allowing you to try many more times.
Basically, a server's worth of people obviously has a far great chance of spitting out 81+/90 genies, faster, than you alone can ever manage. I have a lot of in-game coin and I imagine you do as well. Why not get the server helping you towards your goal, instead of feeling you have to do it within the confines of your SP, inventory space, and time? If you can produce a couple dozen candidate genies a day, just think about how many a server could?
You could even start buying other genie combinations. For example, advertise set prices for all genies with LP like... 75 or better out of 80, 66 or better out of 70, 57 or better out of 60, etc.
If you have trusted friends with lots of spare SP, particularly if they already have 91+ genies, trade some of the good candidates that are higher lvl (example, 71+/80 or 81+/90) and level them up. These higher lvl genies are the ones that, if they go wrong, really kill your SP pool, so again, thinking outside the box of your OWN SP limit, and utilizing the resources of other people who don't need the resource you have a limit on.
Maybe this helps, maybe not :P
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well what ever you decide...dont make one genie and hope it will get 91+luck points with you spam clicking...chances are you won't get +10 lucky points 9 times in a row...now if you try +10 with many diffrent genies are at once...i believe you have greater chances. I'll try my best to explainAdroit - Lost City wrote: »After recently hitting 105, I now have ~630m sp sitting here.. and thought I'd try my luck at making a 91+ genie. The only thing holding me back is deciding on some criteria to determine if I want to continue investing sp in a genie. I originally was thinking that I'd keep working on it as long as the genie had at least 90% of its possible LP (i.e. a genie that was 18/20 would be worth continuing on), although I'm thinking this may not be the best way to approach the problem. Because the sp investment per level increases exponentially, perhaps it'd make sense to be more picky at lower levels and say it needs to be 19 or 20/20 to continue working on it because the sp cost is near negligible (although mirages/time isn't free either.. so meh)
I'd rather not just choose some arbitrary number, ideally there would be some way to calculate the most efficient way to do this.. but I'm not really sure how to do this. I'll take any ideas/opinions anyone has to offer, but obviously prefer something that isn't just arbitrarily chosen.
Thanks in advance,
Adroit
Think of this has refining with Tisha...you want a dumby refine...and dumby genies.
When i say dumby refine i simply mean after succesfuly get some refines without fail...what are the chances the next one will work, so i typically refine a equipment i dont need...hoping for 3fails in a row before i refine important gear.
Now with genies what i typically do is make about 10genies or really depends how many you want to make. After i have these 10genies, i will typically roll all my genies to 9/19 or 10/19 or 1-10/19 lucky points. After they all have around this lucky points, i then level all of them to 1-20/29 (now the ones that make it to 11-20/29 lucky points i keep, those under i throw in bank). This method is so effective that i can usally have 4-6/out of 20 genies going at 70/79 and after that hopefully u get lucky...and usally 1-3 of those genies typically get 9-10 lucky points when leveled. I'm not saying there is a pattern for getting lucky points but after a while of leveling 20 rowes of genies....you can sometimes predict (or my mind is ****ing with me) which genie will give points.
Note if you really want 91/100 genie dont waste spirit points on a genie that is sure to not get 91/100 (ex/ 15/30...this genie won't be able to get 91/100 lucky points anymore...best being 85/100) trust me...you'll be out of spirit points before you know it if you risk them on every genie
why want a 91/100 or 100/100 genie when you can go for 0/100 genie o.o0 -
Bhavyy - Raging Tide wrote: »What are you on about? I really don't understand anything you're trying to say here. I'm sure you have some sort of point on what you're saying, at least I hope you do. Could you just be a little better at explaining? Or perhaps someone could translate the randomness.
And I think the best way to do it would be to set a limit at 10 level intervals on what you'd settle for to go on or not go on to the next 10 levels.
E.g. My limits would be something like 28/30, 37/40, 46/50, 55/60, 64/70, 73/80, 82/90, 91/100.
Seems pretty basic I'm sure. I wonder if there's a way of calculating the best limits.
Stochastic is no easy topic and doesnt work like ppl think it does without learning it.
It starts with the chance a number out of [1..10] will be 10 is exactly 1:2
because the possible solutions are only TRUE and FALSE.
This statement is 100 % correct,
while the statement "the chance is 1:10" is non-proofable.
So what can be done ?
We want an answer without randomness, pure facts.
The facts are:
1. there exist combination of number s wich lead to a valid result (TRUE)
2. there exist combinations of numbers wich lead to invalid results (FALSE)
Calculations will lead to something like:
1000 valid combinations, 1.000.000.000 invalid combinations
thats a ratio of 1:1.000.000
If you only choose 80/80 wich is one of those 1000 valid combinations
thats a ratio of 1:1.000.000.000
Considering you have limited ressources (especially time)
it would be pure waste to prefer 1:1 Mrd over 1:1 Mio.0 -
Raphxelion - Raging Tide wrote: »Think of this has refining with Tisha...you want a dumby refine...and dumby genies.
When i say dumby refine i simply mean after succesfuly get some refines without fail...what are the chances the next one will work, so i typically refine a equipment i dont need...hoping for 3fails in a row before i refine important gear.
That's not the way chance works. Failing three times does not make a success more likely.Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
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Alexis - Lothranis wrote: »Does this seriously sound logical to you?
Check Decus link and you might understand.0 -
It still doesnt make very much sence.
Lets start with your conclusion, what is actually your conclusion ? you state thisIf you only choose 80/80 wich is one of those 1000 valid combinations
Who is choosing 80/80 ? And what are the valid combinations you speak about ? Do you mwan choosing only 80/80 instead of anything 71/80 and up that could also lead to 91/100 ? (i dont think anyone is advocating that actually)
And the rest of it needs a lot more elaboration to make sence really. Now it kinda looks like you are just using some terms to try and look smart hoping we will feel dumb and accept it.
Again i do have some incling to what you might be onto, but its still speculation:
Say there are these 1.000.000.000 ways the genie could develop. Out of those say 100.000 are leading to 91+. that is 1 in 10.000. Leaving 1.000.900.000 invalid solutions.
Now say we have a 25/30 genie. We can no longer look at all the available solutions. At the point where we are now, we are gonna have to cut down to the solutions that are available from here. Maybe we now have 50.000.000 solutions remaining out of which only 1.000 are valid. The ratio is now reduced to 1 in 50.000 !
While if you have a 30/30 genie, we still have 50.000.000 remaining solutions, but there are still 10.000 of the valid solutions remaining. Our ratio now has improved to 1 in 5000 !
Then of course you need to compare the amount of time you still have to spend for this new ratio with the amount of time you have to spend on the initial ratio (ie when you start over again)
if this approach of math is not what you were pointing at (but not interpreting correctly if you did so), please elaborate what you do mean.
Edit: If you would keep looking at the complete set of possible paths even when your genie is no longer at its starting level, now that would be pretty close to what is explained in gamblers falacy. It would mean that you include events from history into your expectations of the future.0 -
Check Decus link and you might understand.
the link about gamblers falacy ? Has absolutely nothing to do with your statement that indeed seems illogical. I am not saying that there might however not be some weird branch of math that would use statements like that (even though i have a university degree in computer science and do not remember running into that branch) so please elaborate and teach us
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HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »the link about gamblers falacy ? Has absolutely nothing to do with your statement that indeed seems illogical. I am not saying that there might however not be some weird branch of math that would use statements like that (even though i have a university degree in computer science and do not remember running into that branch) so please elaborate and teach us
What you dont understand in "if theres only 2 status [true, false] the chance is 1:2" ?
At least in my country stochastic is part of pre university education so i can hardly belive that you didnt run into it.0 -
well i google it, and i do see some things that i have run into, but i dont recall any justification for your claim that equates to "when you throw a dice there is 50% chance you throw a 6"
Why do you refuse to elaborate and explain ? You make an unorthodox claim for people who are used to normal chance calculations. It is not like you are claiming 1+1 = 2 and we dont understand. So elaboration would be pretty reasobable.0 -
Where did you read that ?HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »but i dont recall any justification for your claim that equates to "when you throw a dice there is 50% chance you throw a 6"
I dont and if you read whole thread you might find out i anwered specific questions,HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »Why do you refuse to elaborate and explain ?
wich got often quoted in a way wich grabs them out of context giving less sense,
but ppl ask same questions again because they refuse to adapt.
Give me a link please of your "normal chance calculations".HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »You make an unorthodox claim for people who are used to normal chance calculations.
If you read my posts you will see ppl indeed refuse to understand and prefer to belive in luck.HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »It is not like you are claiming 1+1 = 2 and we dont understand. So elaboration would be pretty reasobable.0 -
yes, this is rly interesting0
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here:Where did you read that ?it starts with the chance a number out of [1..10] will be 10 is exactly 1:2
only difference is a dice generally got 6 sides and your talking about [1...10]
Ill let it rest now. I know there is never going to be an explanation so ill stop teasing you about it.0 -
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@HrunsPanda
That quote is incomplete.. so i assume you re not interested in seriours answers.
What aboutwhile the statement "the chance is 1:10" is non-proofable.
@Fissile:
The chance you understand what i wrote is 0:10 -
@HrunsPanda
That quote is incomplete.. so i assume you re not interested in seriours answers.
What about
you know that 1+1=2 is also nonproofable0 -
MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »you know that 1+1=2 is also nonproofable
No variables - nothing to proof, has nothing to do with this topic.0 -
and besides that, we are now discussing a tiny little quote out of what was a post full of incoherent statements that werent linked together and didnt lead to any conclusion. You didnt provide any context to put it in. You didnt explain why this statement would even be important. I dont even know what your opinion is on how to best train a genie based on the statements you made and what you wanted to prove.
Oh... i would let it rest.... Damn its hard for me....0 -
HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »and besides that, we are now discussing a tiny little quote out of what was a post full of incoherent statements that werent linked together and didnt lead to any conclusion. You didnt provide any context to put it in. You didnt explain why this statement would even be important. I dont even know what your opinion is on how to best train a genie.
Oh... i would let it rest.... Damn its hard for me....
Best way - try all valid genie s until they become invalid,
next time read my post before judging since this again is a repeatition.
Addition:
dont try for 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 100 LP if not necessary.
I let it rest now, good luck to all who try this method and all others
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Ah, so you will not ditch a 1/10 genie ?
Well, i think i may have understood your real meaning when i made a reply about those billion different paths of genie development and explained there why you are wrong. Ill repeat that in short though since your statment that includes 1/10 genies makes it much simpler:
There are 10^9 different paths of genie development. Probably a few 1000 of those will lead to 91+.
There are 10^8 different paths of genie develepment for a 1/10 genie. 1 of thsoe will lead to 91.
Now you tell me its not a good idea to ditch that 1/10 genie.0 -
HrunsPanda - Archosaur wrote: »Ah, so you will not ditch a 1/10 genie ?
No because 1/10 has nothing to do with following numbers,
its just the start sequence of a potentially valid combination.
We dont even are able to ditch it instantly, it is in your bag anyway
and if your really think it has a low chance - then you wont loose much xp,
but yeah you could waste that week for no reason and leave the chance unused
but maybe you could explain why you would.. b:sweat0 -
Tried another simulation where I continued as long as it had at least 80% of possible lucky points (but still possible.. couldn't be missing more than 10) and actually found this is the most efficient method I've tried so far. Simulated 10000 genies yielded:
Average LP value: 93
Average Mirage Cost: 21126
Average SP Cost: 1007m (with a standard deviation of 783m SP)
Average # of 81-90 LP genies: 1.79
Proportion of these genies that were made with 630m or less spirit is: ~.454
Serbetel has made a number of claims that are clearly incorrect, and as many others have mentioned a majority of his posts are difficult to understand.. so I just stopped taking him seriously. He seems to be adovcating an approach where you continue as long as it is still possible to make it (continue on a 1/10 genie), but I have simulated this and it is clearly not the best method.. so I don't know why he continues defending this failed idea.Youtube Channel: youtube.com/user/D2VeT/videos?flow=grid&view=0
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of course i also stopped taking him serious.
But the last time i attacked people on their fail math, i was not very tactfull and called them idiots from the beginning, that didnt lead to pretty treads. so now i thought ill let him explain and have some fun making him explain things that cannot be explained.
of course he knows it, but he is never going to admit 0 -
No because 1/10 has nothing to do with following numbers,
its just the start sequence of a potentially valid combination.
We dont even are able to ditch it instantly, it is in your bag anyway
and if your really think it has a low chance - then you wont loose much xp,
but yeah you could waste that week for no reason and leave the chance unused
but maybe you could explain why you would.. b:sweat
with a 1/10 genies, your potentially valid combination is decrease to literally 1 possibilities. And all genies lvl 30 and below can be decomposed instantly. And your try all genies till they become invalid, it only work if it's 90 LP or below. There is a constraint on bank space, SP coin and time.0 -
Adroit, sorry if it is posted already somewhere in these 12 pages but i dont wanna go search b:surrender
Do you have a link to whatever you use for these simulations ?
PS: and is it possible to simulate with hugely larger number of genies?, because 10.000 is way too small a sample size for such a small number. You can recognize that in the standard deviation being almost as big as the average SP used. I think you should simulate a million genies.
I think i might make that excell sheet after all, even though i am not yet entirely sure how i am gonna implement the totally different variables of SP, mirages and time into one formula.0 -
No because 1/10 has nothing to do with following numbers,
its just the start sequence of a potentially valid combination.
We dont even are able to ditch it instantly, it is in your bag anyway
and if your really think it has a low chance - then you wont loose much xp,
but yeah you could waste that week for no reason and leave the chance unused
but maybe you could explain why you would.. b:sweat
That 1/10 genie has a 1:3,098,972 chance of becoming a 91 LP genie. As I explained earlier, in many cases it is cheaper to replace a genie than the spirit you would waste leveling it until it actually fails.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »with a 1/10 genies, your potentially valid combination is decrease to literally 1 possibilities. And all genies lvl 30 and below can be decomposed instantly. And your try all genies till they become invalid, it only work if it's 90 LP or below. There is a constraint on bank space, SP coin and time.
The nature of luck is that every next step is random,
so even if your skip it forward 2 steps the chance to fail later is equal
but the costs increase.0 -
Adroit - Lost City wrote: »Tried another simulation where I continued as long as it had at least 80% of possible lucky points (but still possible.. couldn't be missing more than 10) and actually found this is the most efficient method I've tried so far. Simulated 10000 genies yielded:
Average LP value: 93
Average Mirage Cost: 21126
Average SP Cost: 1007m (with a standard deviation of 783m SP)
Average # of 81-90 LP genies: 1.79
Proportion of these genies that were made with 630m or less spirit is: ~.454
Serbetel has made a number of claims that are clearly incorrect, and as many others have mentioned a majority of his posts are difficult to understand.. so I just stopped taking him seriously. He seems to be adovcating an approach where you continue as long as it is still possible to make it (continue on a 1/10 genie), but I have simulated this and it is clearly not the best method.. so I don't know why he continues defending this failed idea.
I think he believes you have infinite mirages, bank space, SP and time. Btw, I have made 2 81+ genies, 3 71+ genies with less than 1000 genies used. b:avoid Did it with a 21/30 cutoff. Ran out of SP otherwise, I would have more, lol0 -
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