Refining rates nerfed?

2

Comments

  • Mendolin - Sanctuary
    Mendolin - Sanctuary Posts: 1,092 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Ursa - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    oh, really?
    How about going through 400+ Mirages and not getting 3 successes in a row? I ended up with 2 +2 pieces of gear after using 400 mirages. Happened on Monday... And I closed refining window, re-log, all the tricks I learned in the last 18 months of playing this game.
    A couple of days before, on Friday or Saturday, it took me 180 mirages to get a pair of pants to +3.
    Some weeks before that I refined a map3 belt to +3. Took me 150 mirages.

    I've been refining gear from 1-3 using mirages since I'm playing this game. I always considered a 50-60-70 mirages to be a decent price to pay, depending on luck, for a +3 refine. And remember, before anni packs mirages were going for 25k-30k each. For about 3 months that is not happening anymore. I tried the above refines on 3 characters on 2 different account. Having bad luck on one account I would have said "well, efff it, i'm cursed".
    But on 2 accounts I believe is the game. I don't give a poo if you nerfed the refines or not, but don't insult my intelligence. giving me poo about nothing ingame has changed. 700+ mirages in a month span are saying I'm right, and many many thousands before say I have a pretty damn good background to judge it.

    maybe you just dont know how to refine lol there are certain lands with a higher % to get the +# that you want... also you cant EXPECT there to be + + + in a row... thats why there is a pattern... you just have to pay attention to it and bring another object to take the hits for you while you + your stuff...

    and like i stated before... your "luck" is determined by how many people are refining at the time you are... there is a dragon orb sale right now which is what frankie was saying so there are not a lot of people refning when orbs are so cheap

    dont hate the game... learn how to play it b:bye
    (frankie wasnt insulting your intelligence... but i am)
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  • Ursa - Dreamweaver
    Ursa - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,634 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    well reading your post was a waste of time, nothing new in there.

    What part of "all the tricks" you didn't understood. You really think what you added is new stuff to anyone? prolly someone who joined 2 months ago...

    and insulting my intelligence? nah, you need to work more for that. So far you just made yourself look like a "i know it all" nub.
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  • Mendolin - Sanctuary
    Mendolin - Sanctuary Posts: 1,092 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Ursa - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    well reading your post was a waste of time, nothing new in there.

    What part of "all the tricks" you didn't understood. You really think what you added is new stuff to anyone? prolly someone who joined 2 months ago...

    and insulting my intelligence? nah, you need to work more for that. So far you just made yourself look like a "i know it all" nub.

    b:chuckle ya a know it all nub who doesnt waste 400 mirages for 2 pieces to get to +2....
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  • TheDan - Sanctuary
    TheDan - Sanctuary Posts: 3,495 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I +7 my armors with 400 mirages, ijs. b:victory

    Though weapons takes 1.5-2K mirages to +7 b:sad
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  • Ursa - Dreamweaver
    Ursa - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,634 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Mendolin - Sanctuary wrote: »
    b:chuckle ya a know it all nub who doesnt waste 400 mirages for 2 pieces to get to +2....

    end up with +2 not to get to +2.
    details.
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  • Mendolin - Sanctuary
    Mendolin - Sanctuary Posts: 1,092 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Ursa - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    end up with +2 not to get to +2.
    details.

    semantics.
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  • Okeano - Harshlands
    Okeano - Harshlands Posts: 4,943 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I +4'ed 2 items yesterday with less than 100 mirages by getting them to +3 a few times then use the higher refine chance stone I got from TB quests to try to +4. Took 5 of those stones.

    Just my input for refining rates.

    Although I don't believe in the "tricks" in refining, I do close the refine window and start a new one if I fail a few times in a row.
  • Lessein - Sanctuary
    Lessein - Sanctuary Posts: 152 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    so... I haven't read the whole thread since I really just CBA so i dunno if anyone has suggested it.
    But maybe its a bit of a "coincidence" with the d.orb sale happening at the same time?
  • Okeano - Harshlands
    Okeano - Harshlands Posts: 4,943 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Lessein - Sanctuary wrote: »
    so... I haven't read the whole thread since I really just CBA so i dunno if anyone has suggested it.
    But maybe its a bit of a "coincidence" with the d.orb sale happening at the same time?

    No. Even me, who believes that some players have inside knowledge of sales before it happens, does not buy in to the theory that PWE lowered the refine rate so they can sell more D Orbs.

    And it's hardly a sale when gold price is 100k higher than before the sale.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    RainbowVidel - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I'd rather spend more for a guaranteed success than gamble on a low chance and hope to get lucky. But that's just me.
    Me too, which is why I always play very conservatively when I'm merchanting.

    But this isn't about a "low chance" or "hoping to get lucky". The odds are heavily in your favour. There's only an 8% chance of actually losing money when trying to refine to +5 vs. using Dragon Orbs. And if you're planning to refine 5 pieces of equipment to +5, the chance of losing money vs. Dragon Orbs drops to 1.3%.

    Currently, the average price for a non-Dragon Orb +5 is ~2.95 million vs. ~7.55 million with Dragon Orbs. The way I look at it, going with Dragon Orbs means you've got a 92% chance of paying more than you should have, and you're paying ~4.6 million for that "privilege". In gambling terms, that's a sucker bet.

    Ursa - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    I don't give a poo if you nerfed the refines or not, but don't insult my intelligence. giving me poo about nothing ingame has changed. 700+ mirages in a month span are saying I'm right, and many many thousands before say I have a pretty damn good background to judge it.
    My experience over the past couple of weeks has been the exact opposite of yours. I've refined 3 more items to +5 for less than 2 million each, which is better than what would be expected by chance.

    I've probably used about 3,000 Mirages by now, and my conclusion is that refining is clumpy and inconsistent and makes you want to become superstitious. But at the end of the day the results are exactly what the math predicts they will be, including the correct proportions of insanely good and insanely bad streaks of luck.
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  • Lessein - Sanctuary
    Lessein - Sanctuary Posts: 152 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I wouldnt put it past them, that guy used 60 to get to +1 when its supposed to be a 50% chance... thats more than just bad luck.
    An look at the duke, they took his tape off just to advertise all the wonderful things you can get from packs. I would certainly not put it past them to lower refine rates to sell more d.orbs.

    p.s. as regards to the sale thing, the players will agree, the devs will not.
  • Ursa - Dreamweaver
    Ursa - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,634 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Okeano - Harshlands wrote: »
    No. Even me, who believes that some players have inside knowledge of sales before it happens, does not buy in to the theory that PWE lowered the refine rate so they can sell more D Orbs.

    And it's hardly a sale when gold price is 100k higher than before the sale.

    I made about 50mil with that 100k increase in gold price, and I wasn't planning to do that. It just happened I had some coins after I sold a lunar ring and a +8 Neon, and I thought I couldn't go wrong investing it in a 320k gold. I made 50mil over night basically.
    Having inside intel about what sales goes on and when, one could make billions. A sale is always a good one when "in demand/must have" items are included in it.
    ____________
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    George Carlin

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  • Chillum - Dreamweaver
    Chillum - Dreamweaver Posts: 887 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Ursa - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    I made about 50mil with that 100k increase in gold price, and I wasn't planning to do that. It just happened I had some coins after I sold a lunar ring and a +8 Neon, and I thought I couldn't go wrong investing it in a 320k gold. I made 50mil over night basically.
    Having inside intel about what sales goes on and when, one could make billions. A sale is always a good one when "in demand/must have" items are included in it.

    I hope that Neon Purgatory went to a good home Ursa. b:sad
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  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Ursa - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Having inside intel about what sales goes on and when, one could make billions. A sale is always a good one when "in demand/must have" items are included in it.
    I agree, which makes me wonder why they have to shut down the servers in order to re-schedule cash-shop sales on or off.

    If that scheduling information is being sent out with the client then it's an invitation to rampant insider trading.
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  • Bearleeable - Lost City
    Bearleeable - Lost City Posts: 445 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    frankieraye wrote: »
    To the OP: I'm sorry about the bad luck-- when you have this many players refining this much, there will be outliers: Occurrences of unusually high and unusually low numbers of successful refines.

    I can assure you, however, that the refine rate has not been modified.
    Glad to hear it though my luck lately is horrendous, just used about 100 to get to items to +3. Nowhere near as bad as the other day.
    Morrzan - Sanctuary wrote: »
    This is true. I saw this thread and decided to experiment. The first 10 or so refines were about average with Success, fail, Success, fail... after that, i proceded to get fail, fail, fail, fail, fail around 10 times. I exited the window, and tried again. I got my necklace to +6 and my ring to +3 with no failures. I was just doing this as an experiment though, refined my necklace again, and it failed, and continued to fail until i opened another window.
    so are you concurring or disagreeing with my failure rate?
    Mendolin - Sanctuary wrote: »
    maybe you just dont know how to refine lol there are certain lands with a higher % to get the +# that you want... also you cant EXPECT there to be + + + in a row... thats why there is a pattern... you just have to pay attention to it and bring another object to take the hits for you while you + your stuff...

    and like i stated before... your "luck" is determined by how many people are refining at the time you are... there is a dragon orb sale right now which is what frankie was saying so there are not a lot of people refning when orbs are so cheap

    dont hate the game... learn how to play it b:bye
    (frankie wasnt insulting your intelligence... but i am)
    so what are the tricks? Share your knowledge. Normally +3 i can do in about 40 mirage but not the other day.

    Just an FYI know its not an exageration. I was appalled. I have little patience and should've just hung it up for the day. I tried the relog, close window, everything I could think of... today @ one point it failed about 20x in a row for +1. so I relogged.

    I'm certainely no refining expert and going more then +3 petrifies me as most of the time for me it fails @ +4 and then its as if the elder gets furious with me for being greedy and I can burn through 100 w/o seeing +3 again.
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  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »
    so what are the tricks? Share your knowledge. Normally +3 i can do in about 40 mirage but not the other day.
    Players who claim special knowledge about certain times/places/techniques generally don't share their knowledge for two reasons.

    First, it would take away their ability to feel superior and 1337.

    Second, none of the techniques actually work, so the beliefs only survive because they're kept secretive and not fully-tested in the first place.
    Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »
    I'm certainely no refining expert and going more then +3 petrifies me as most of the time for me it fails @ +4 and then its as if the elder gets furious with me for being greedy and I can burn through 100 w/o seeing +3 again.
    For non-weapons, +3 is as high as you should go with just Mirages anyway.

    Nowadays I just record my starting Mirages and then mindlessly rapidly click until I see 3 successes in a row. I only pay attention when I'm working on +4 or higher, because that's when you need to make sure you use the correct Tienkang/Tisha stone.

    The result is about 5 minutes per +5 refine, plus very little frustration since I'm deliberately trying to not care about what is going on. When I'm done I check the actual cost and it's usually a lot less than what I think it's going to be. For example, I recently thought for sure I'd gone over the cost of Dragon Orbs because I just kept failing and failing and failing, yet at the end I'd actually still saved 1.5 million.
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  • Noob - Raging Tide
    Noob - Raging Tide Posts: 771 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Over 300 mirages to get a piece of armor + wep to +3
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  • Borsuc - Raging Tide
    Borsuc - Raging Tide Posts: 1,526 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I never used any refining aids, only mirages to +4 most of it (except a few pieces which are +3).

    Sometimes I used as few as 70 mirages to +4, on my ring attendance ring 150 mirages to +3 (and the first time I've even seen +3 btw, not me being greedy for +4) and said **** it and stopped. FC gold ring took only 60 mirages to +4, in contrast.

    WarrenWolfy I really appreciate your refining thread, but are you sure that with gold prices this high (~450k) it's a good idea to use tienkangs from +3 to +4 when mirages are cheap? Tienkangs seem like a really expensive attempt, imo, for +3 to +4.

    I know the gold prices are high because of packs, but I can never find anyone selling tienkang stones b:surrender So I have to get them the "overpriced" way.

    (sorry couldn't use your spreadsheet because my browser got stuck when enabled javascript, I'll try it later)


    EDIT: And I'm all too familiar with the "20 failures in a row", seriously. No idea what's going on from +0 to +1 but it NEVER is 50%. Seems more like 30% at best.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Borsuc - Raging Tide wrote: »
    WarrenWolfy I really appreciate your refining thread, but are you sure that with gold prices this high (~450k) it's a good idea to use tienkangs from +3 to +4 when mirages are cheap? Tienkangs seem like a really expensive attempt, imo, for +3 to +4.
    It's not a huge difference, but according to the math it's still better to go with Tienkangs for +4 and +5.

    Assuming 450k for Gold and 10.6k for Mirages, the average cost for Mirages to +3 with Tienkangs to +4 is 1.16 million, vs. 1.33 million for Mirages-only to +4.

    Even if Gold went up a lot, like say 550k for Gold and only 10k for Mirages, it would still be better to use Tienkangs for +4. Even I'm kinda surprised to see that the calculations come out that way.
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  • Asheera - Raging Tide
    Asheera - Raging Tide Posts: 830 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Me too, which is why I always play very conservatively when I'm merchanting.

    But this isn't about a "low chance" or "hoping to get lucky". The odds are heavily in your favour. There's only an 8% chance of actually losing money when trying to refine to +5 vs. using Dragon Orbs. And if you're planning to refine 5 pieces of equipment to +5, the chance of losing money vs. Dragon Orbs drops to 1.3%.

    Currently, the average price for a non-Dragon Orb +5 is ~2.95 million vs. ~7.55 million with Dragon Orbs. The way I look at it, going with Dragon Orbs means you've got a 92% chance of paying more than you should have, and you're paying ~4.6 million for that "privilege". In gambling terms, that's a sucker bet.
    Knowing my luck that 8% is too high for me to risk it lol

    No plz don't give me the thing that everyone's luck gets averaged in the end, mine just doesn't. I have a demon cursing my luck or something b:surrender
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  • Bearleeable - Lost City
    Bearleeable - Lost City Posts: 445 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    Warren, you posted a really nice layout of price vs lvl one time.. could you repost the link? thanks.
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Me too, which is why I always play very conservatively when I'm merchanting.

    But this isn't about a "low chance" or "hoping to get lucky". The odds are heavily in your favour. There's only an 8% chance of actually losing money when trying to refine to +5 vs. using Dragon Orbs. And if you're planning to refine 5 pieces of equipment to +5, the chance of losing money vs. Dragon Orbs drops to 1.3%.

    Currently, the average price for a non-Dragon Orb +5 is ~2.95 million vs. ~7.55 million with Dragon Orbs. The way I look at it, going with Dragon Orbs means you've got a 92% chance of paying more than you should have, and you're paying ~4.6 million for that "privilege". In gambling terms, that's a sucker bet.



    My experience over the past couple of weeks has been the exact opposite of yours. I've refined 3 more items to +5 for less than 2 million each, which is better than what would be expected by chance.

    I've probably used about 3,000 Mirages by now, and my conclusion is that refining is clumpy and inconsistent and makes you want to become superstitious. But at the end of the day the results are exactly what the math predicts they will be, including the correct proportions of insanely good and insanely bad streaks of luck.
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  • zaaphiel
    zaaphiel Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    The whole game is nerfed!!!, except cash shop >.>
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    Regarding the OP, my girlfriend and I did some more refining last night. Mirages were 11k, Gold was 420k. Here's our results:
    Wings of Cloudcharger -> +5:  214 Mirages, 7 Tienkangs (3.16 million, 59.3% cheaper)
Warsoul of Heaven     -> +5:  114 Mirages, 4 Tienkangs (1.72 million, 77.9% cheaper)
Wings of Cloudcharger -> +5:  318 Mirages, 8 Tienkangs (4.42 million, 43.0% cheaper)
TT90 Arcane Sleeves   -> +5:  399 Mirages, 8 Tienkangs (5.31 million, 31.6% cheaper)

    The second Wings of Cloudcharger was mine, the rest were done by my girlfriend. The average price should have been 2.9 million, so we were actually unlucky this time around. Nevertheless we still saved a ton vs. 30%-off Dragon Orbs, which would have cost 7.77 million each.

    And no, we didn't bother with any of Duke Blacke's rumours. We refined in Archo, and didn't re-log, close the window, switch items after multiple fails in a row, say a prayer, etc..., etc...

    I went through just over 200 Mirages without getting my Wings of Cloudcharger past +2, but then managed to finish with 43% savings anyway, while my girlfriend managed to get 10 failures in a row (a 1 in 1024 chance) before successfully successfully refining her Warsoul of Heaven with a whopping 77.9% discount.

    My conclusion is that refining rate haven't been nerfed. They appear to be the same as they always have been.
    Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »
    Warren, you posted a really nice layout of price vs lvl one time.. could you repost the link? thanks.
    Hmm... I'm not sure which post you're referring to, but the best way to get a chart of prices is to open the Zoho Sheet - Refining Guide, then click "Click to Edit", then put in the current Gold, Mirage, and Cash Shop Item prices.

    For example, this is a copy that I just made that has yesterday's Sanctuary prices of 420k Gold, 11k Mirages, and 30%-off Dragon Orbs (ie. 0.18 Gold per Dragon Orb 1): Sanctuary Refining Guide - Aug 2, 2010

    So, for example, the step-by-step guide and average costs would be shown as:
    1  Mirage        22,000	
2  Mirage       110,000	
3  Mirage       403,333	
4  Tienkang   1,177,781	
5  Tienkang   2,898,775	
6  Tisha      6,693,190	
7  Tisha     14,603,502	
8  Tisha     30,684,173	
9  Tisha     71,471,360	
10 DOrb 10  177,125,800	
11 DOrb 11  371,844,600	
12 DOrb 12  730,040,840

    Keep in mind that anything above +7 isn't really a valid result, since you'll definitely want to wait for a Dragon Orb Ocean sale to refine +8 and up.
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  • teethewicked
    teethewicked Posts: 107 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    I doubt the rates have been nerfed. I got the 5 Tienkangs from takign the Tideborn Traitor's remains to the beach, so I decided to refine my 3 star dual blades to sell, since I just became high enough level to equip the next dual blades. I used a dragon orb to get it to +1, then I used the 5 Tienkangs right after. All successes, so now I have a +6 weapon. And this is the first time I have ever refined(I only been playing for a few months, and I am a casual gamer, so I am not that high level and have yet to experience a lot of stuff others may have)
    Don't be jealous of my boogie.
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  • XFallen - Harshlands
    XFallen - Harshlands Posts: 5 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    this happened to me yesterday, i failed to refine 7 times. then i stopped so i didnt waste anymore celestones
  • SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear
    SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,225 Arc User
    edited August 2010

    [Forum]SgtSIaughter: They nerfed refine rate since all big mean powerful factions were exploiting the massive amounts of mirages each week.
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  • OBOY - Sanctuary
    OBOY - Sanctuary Posts: 40 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    b:shocked wow, did you know it would have been cheaper to just buy the orbs b:laugh; also dont refine on weekends is what im told.b:bye
  • Katzyn - Sanctuary
    Katzyn - Sanctuary Posts: 1,270 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    OBOY - Sanctuary wrote: »
    b:shocked wow, did you know it would have been cheaper to just buy the orbs b:laugh; also dont refine on weekends is what im told.b:bye

    I think that if you'd read the thread and it's more detailed posts, you'd see that what you just said is wrong. =P It's EASIER to use the orbs, but certainly NOT cheaper.

    My friends have been saying it seemed like the refining rates had been nerfed, but after reading Warrens really detailed post...I'm not sure sure anymore. I'll have to refer them to this thread.
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  • Atreana - Lost City
    Atreana - Lost City Posts: 23 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    [FORUM]Atreana : Talk about being unlucky, 1000 mirages, 20 tishas, 17 tienkangs on different days at different times, closing and opening refining window with 3 consecutive fails, logging on and off and my heaven shatterer is still at +4. With mirages averaging 13k each that's 13m down the drains, not including the tishas and tienkangs.

    It was much much easier to refine stuffs with tishas and tienkangs few months earlier, just not now. I'll bet you Warren if you did another test like the one you did months before, the results would be much much different now. I'm inclined to think they've nerfed everything that help players to save money.
  • OBOY - Sanctuary
    OBOY - Sanctuary Posts: 40 Arc User
    edited August 2010
    Katzyn - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I think that if you'd read the thread and it's more detailed posts, you'd see that what you just said is wrong. =P It's EASIER to use the orbs, but certainly NOT cheaper.

    My friends have been saying it seemed like the refining rates had been nerfed, but after reading Warrens really detailed post...I'm not sure sure anymore. I'll have to refer them to this thread.

    b:shockedactually its not cheaper the OP said he he spent 700 mirages and 37 tishua trying to get +3, with orbs selling at 75-100k he could of +4 maybe even +5 both gears and still had money leftb:victory

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