Refining rates nerfed?

Bearleeable - Lost City
Bearleeable - Lost City Posts: 445 Arc User
edited August 2010 in General Discussion
Is anyone else having the issue the last few days that refining seems to be serverly nerfed?
I went through 700 mirages yesterday and couldn't get 2 pieces of grade 12 gear to +3
At once point it went 60 times w/o getting to +1 !! b:cry
Even with 37 tiusha stones best I got was +2 on one and +3 FINALLY on another.
I tried multiple methods and places.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Post edited by Bearleeable - Lost City on
«13

Comments

  • Yamiino - Heavens Tear
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,031 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    bad luck.

    /thread
    WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.
  • drjiggle
    drjiggle Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    bad luck.

    If his numbers aren't exaggerated, that's some extraordinarily bad luck.

    +1 is supposed to be a 50% chance. That means that 60 failures in a row has a 1 in 1.1529215 * 10^18 chance of occurring. That's less than 1 in a quintillion! A quintillion is 1 million trillions.

    So, yeah, tell me again how it's just bad luck. You probably have a far better chance of being "lucky" enough to have everyone you know struck by lightning in separate incidents.
  • Yulk - Heavens Tear
    Yulk - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,951 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »
    Is anyone else having the issue the last few days that refining seems to be serverly nerfed?
    I went through 700 mirages yesterday and couldn't get 2 pieces of grade 12 gear to +3
    At once point it went 60 times w/o getting to +1 !! b:cry
    Even with 37 tiusha stones best I got was +2 on one and +3 FINALLY on another.
    I tried multiple methods and places.

    its got to be nerfed or seems you have very bad luck... hopefully it is your luck but being pessimistic about it already :/ I really think its nerfed...
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    Thanks for Flauschkatze for siggy b:cool

    VIT > STR > DEX > MAG... GG
    HA > LA > AR... GG

    HA + VIT = win b:bye
  • Vitenka - Dreamweaver
    Vitenka - Dreamweaver Posts: 4,125 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I think it's just bad luck, this last week I got a +2 in 4 mirages (one failure) which is immensely good luck to counterbalance it.
  • Decus - Dreamweaver
    Decus - Dreamweaver Posts: 5,033 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I used 500 mirages and got all of my armor to +4 easily. I used tienkangs from 3 -> 4. While it does seem extraordinarily unlikely that you have luck that bad, I also find it hard to believe that rates were nerfed as well. b:surrender
    Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
    Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    "Any skills that can be used to kill you will interrupt BB when successful." -truekossy | "...Sage archers are kind of like Mac owners. They are proud of the weirdest and most unnecessary things." -Aesthor | "We ALL know Jesus doesn't play PWI. He may have suffered a lot for humanity, but he'd NEVER punish himself this way." -Abstractive | "I approve of bananas." -SashaGray
  • RainbowVidel - Sanctuary
    RainbowVidel - Sanctuary Posts: 1,316 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Dragon orbs... 100% success every time... no wasted mirages... need I say more?
  • Atreana - Lost City
    Atreana - Lost City Posts: 23 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    One thing I've noticed is never to refine anything via mirages and tienkang/tisha when they're having an orb sales. Somehow or other the bad luck seems to be happening more often during orb sales.
  • GHealz - Archosaur
    GHealz - Archosaur Posts: 201 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    actually this HAS happened to me also goin tru over 150 mirages for +2
    so i am asking the same question
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]Tempest FTWb:bye
  • RedsRose - Lost City
    RedsRose - Lost City Posts: 12,354 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Try "re-setting" the box. Don't just leave it open for all 54687987968465 clicks. If you fail more then 15-20 times, close the window and start over.

    *shrugs* Seems to work for my self and others.

    But @ OP --> That is horrible luck and I would not have kept going.b:shocked
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    RoidAbuse is awesome, only he would sell his sperm for gear!!

    "Toughest monster? ..... RedsRose b:surrender" - Kantorek
    Where is my 1 v 1 Kan? b:mischievous
  • Quilue - Sanctuary
    Quilue - Sanctuary Posts: 5,787 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    A case of funny luck is when Asterelle fails +4 eleven times in a row with tienkang stones trying to refine my bow for me.

    I spent well over 7m in mirages and tienkang and it ended up +0...Ast gave me back the bow and was like "never again! its cursed! D:"

    lol
    Elena Costel: I wash my hands of this affair.
    Legerity: *drags you back* *stains your hands with said affair*
    Elena Costel: Noooo... I don't want to have a dirty affair with Lady Legerity...
    Qui: b:dirty
  • Fuzzy_Wuzzy - Raging Tide
    Fuzzy_Wuzzy - Raging Tide Posts: 770 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Would be surprised if the rate has been changed, that just seem too harsh....


    Besides, Fuzzy hasn't noticed a difference. Me has good and bad luck with refining but did manage to get the Sign of Frost ring to +5 on the 1st 5 mirage stones alone. Which, go figure is always Fuzzy's luck. Can + gear really easily as long as me gonna need to decomp said gear. Once its decomposed and turned into the final piece of gear it then tends to refine like ****.

    b:chuckle
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Knownase - Heavens Tear
    Knownase - Heavens Tear Posts: 6,959 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Pretty sure its bad luck.......I refined all my gear, except belt and rings, to +5 the other day without D. Orbs, only used about 450 Mirages and 20 Tienkang stones. >:]
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    b:flowerHave a Techno Rave Flower!b:flower

    -Self-Proclaimed TW commentator of HT-
    -Certified Barbarian Master-
    -You gained +10 coolness points for viewing this signature-
    -Master of Coffee-
  • Airyll - Dreamweaver
    Airyll - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,882 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Extraordinary bad luck, I'll agree, but it's bad luck all the same. There are many people who have made it to +4 with no failures, which is on the opposing end of the scale and seems like extraordinary good luck.

    I have to second RedsRose, resetting the window by closing it after X number of failures (15 - 20 is pretty reasonable) does seem to help somewhat and I make a habit of doing it if things are going badly. Of course... this could just be another one of those refining rumours and I just think it works for me, I can't say and I've not sat down and done math behind it. But it's certainly worth a try considering how many mirages you went through there. (At that point, nearly any rumour is worth a try. o_o )
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Michael_Dark - Lost City
    Michael_Dark - Lost City Posts: 9,091 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »
    Even with 37 tiusha stones best I got was +2 on one and +3 FINALLY on another.
    I tried multiple methods and places.

    You're not supposed to use Tishas on anything less than +4.

    RedsRose - Lost City wrote: »
    Try "re-setting" the box. Don't just leave it open for all 54687987968465 clicks. If you fail more then 15-20 times, close the window and start over.

    Or relog.

    But if you can't get to +2 within the first 10-20 tries, give up and try a different time. If refining is particularly bad at the certain time you're trying, wait a couple hours and try again.
    I post in forums. This one and others. That's why I post.
  • frankieraye
    frankieraye Posts: 250 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    To the OP: I'm sorry about the bad luck-- when you have this many players refining this much, there will be outliers: Occurrences of unusually high and unusually low numbers of successful refines.

    I can assure you, however, that the refine rate has not been modified.
    PWI Wiki | Dragon Points | GM Support | Private Message
  • ElektraArya - Lost City
    ElektraArya - Lost City Posts: 20 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    ^ that

    Also, logging off/closing the screen and reopening does work (I'm not really sure why but it does and I've tested it). Anyways, nothing is wrong with tisha/tienkang since I refine things every 2-3 days for friends/guildies/myself. Got refines +1-+9 and +11 from tisha and tienkang =)

    Orbs are a waste of money for low refines IJS
  • Longknife - Harshlands
    Longknife - Harshlands Posts: 4,843 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    OP are you Charlie Brown?
    I <3 AGOREY
  • Mendolin - Sanctuary
    Mendolin - Sanctuary Posts: 1,092 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Atreana - Lost City wrote: »
    One thing I've noticed is never to refine anything via mirages and tienkang/tisha when they're having an orb sales. Somehow or other the bad luck seems to be happening more often during orb sales.

    +1 to this and i will tell you why...

    the successes and fails in this game are already predetermined in the system, where you fall in that strand of data depends on how many people are refining at the time you are refining, just like with packs... the average %s are based off when there are an average amount of people refining. during and orb sale the amount of people that use mirages to refine go down significantly.

    your luck = more people failing :p


    -_- damn it... should have read the entire post xD frankie beat me to it....
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • LenieClarke - Heavens Tear
    LenieClarke - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,275 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    ElektraArya - Lost City wrote: »
    Also, logging off/closing the screen and reopening does work (I'm not really sure why but it does and I've tested it).

    the pseudorandom number generator(s) this game uses seem to be prone to "runs" --- their outcomes apparently don't always change as often or as drastically as humans would expect of "random" numbers, but get stuck in repetitive sequences for long periods of time. over long enough periods of time they probably average out to randomness, or something reasonably close to it, but that doesn't help you when you just spent your last mirage to get back to +1.

    anyway, relogging is one of the things that appear to re-salt the PRNG(s) involved. dramatically changing your in-game behavior sometimes manages it, also --- in other words, go do something completely different for a while.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC] Heaven's Tear alts: KenLubin, Sou_Hon, JudyCaraco --- level 5x chars.
  • Arliana - Dreamweaver
    Arliana - Dreamweaver Posts: 410 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    there are also certain times and places that refine generally better. arch officer seems to have the highest overall "luck" from what ive seen.
  • GetPoked - Sanctuary
    GetPoked - Sanctuary Posts: 42 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    must be horrible luck, with about 400 mirages i made 8 pieces of my set +4 just the other day, with only 10 tiekangs for help on the +4 refine, of the 400 though, over half that went into my boots alone, that piece made me want to cryb:cry
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »
    I went through 700 mirages yesterday and couldn't get 2 pieces of grade 12 gear to +3
    At once point it went 60 times w/o getting to +1 !! b:cry
    If you're not exaggerating, then I'd say the rates must have been nerfed. The odds you're talking about are so astronomically slim that I'd equate them with being impossible. In fact, even if the rates have been nerfed significantly I'd probably still equate them with impossible.
    RainbowVidel - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Dragon orbs... 100% success every time... no wasted mirages... need I say more?
    Yep, no wasted Mirages. Instead, you get to spend almost 3 times the price to "save" those o-so-precious Mirages that are currently dirt-cheap.

    Don't get me wrong, I love people who use Dragon Orbs, since I make 5% mark-up selling thousands of them to people who don't know how to use anything else. But all my gear is +5 for about 2/5 the cost of Dragon Orbs, which is why I've never used one.
    Mendolin - Sanctuary wrote: »
    the successes and fails in this game are already predetermined in the system, where you fall in that strand of data depends on how many people are refining at the time you are refining, just like with packs... the average %s are based off when there are an average amount of people refining. during and orb sale the amount of people that use mirages to refine go down significantly.
    That's an interesting theory, but that's not how the RNG works. It picks random numbers completely independently of anything else that's going on.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Tojop - Dreamweaver
    Tojop - Dreamweaver Posts: 623 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    bad luck.

    /thread


    This. I got my daggers to +5 with 12 mirages and one tisha, four pieces of 90 armors to +3 using not more than 5 mirages each. Extrapolating from anecdotal evidence FTL. Btw, anyone else notice that the refining rates seem way better these past few days? b:pleased
  • Knownase - Heavens Tear
    Knownase - Heavens Tear Posts: 6,959 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    I have a crazy superstition to refine between 2-4 am server time at 1K elder ever since I +5'd my gear. Someone told me they got a weapon to +8 there too......yay for being superstitious!

    <.<
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    b:flowerHave a Techno Rave Flower!b:flower

    -Self-Proclaimed TW commentator of HT-
    -Certified Barbarian Master-
    -You gained +10 coolness points for viewing this signature-
    -Master of Coffee-
  • Chillum - Dreamweaver
    Chillum - Dreamweaver Posts: 887 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Knownase - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    I have a crazy superstition to refine between 2-4 am server time at 1K elder ever since I +5'd my gear. Someone told me they got a weapon to +8 there too......yay for being superstitious!

    <.<

    Personally I think the elder at 1k Streams hates me. I seemed to have had the most luck (with a crappy run or two) with the elder at Dreamweaver Port though the one at Immolation Camp did alright for me as well.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Ursa - Dreamweaver
    Ursa - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,634 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    frankieraye wrote: »
    To the OP: I'm sorry about the bad luck-- when you have this many players refining this much, there will be outliers: Occurrences of unusually high and unusually low numbers of successful refines.

    I can assure you, however, that the refine rate has not been modified.

    oh, really?
    How about going through 400+ Mirages and not getting 3 successes in a row? I ended up with 2 +2 pieces of gear after using 400 mirages. Happened on Monday... And I closed refining window, re-log, all the tricks I learned in the last 18 months of playing this game.
    A couple of days before, on Friday or Saturday, it took me 180 mirages to get a pair of pants to +3.
    Some weeks before that I refined a map3 belt to +3. Took me 150 mirages.

    I've been refining gear from 1-3 using mirages since I'm playing this game. I always considered a 50-60-70 mirages to be a decent price to pay, depending on luck, for a +3 refine. And remember, before anni packs mirages were going for 25k-30k each. For about 3 months that is not happening anymore. I tried the above refines on 3 characters on 2 different account. Having bad luck on one account I would have said "well, efff it, i'm cursed".
    But on 2 accounts I believe is the game. I don't give a poo if you nerfed the refines or not, but don't insult my intelligence. giving me poo about nothing ingame has changed. 700+ mirages in a month span are saying I'm right, and many many thousands before say I have a pretty damn good background to judge it.
    ____________
    I have as much authority as the Pope, I just don't have as many people who believe it.
    George Carlin

    ~I listen to hardcore FIGHT songs when I visit the forum, just to get into the proper mood~

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Ranfa - Dreamweaver
    Ranfa - Dreamweaver Posts: 382 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    Knownase - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    I have a crazy superstition to refine between 2-4 am server time at 1K elder ever since I +5'd my gear. Someone told me they got a weapon to +8 there too......yay for being superstitious!

    <.<

    Actually I have same kind of "superstition"...Except my timeframe is a lot shorter--like 5min during certain time of the day (won't tell which b:shutup). I've found that during this 5min, I rarely fail at refining. I've got all my armors and ornaments to +5 and my Cleric's Aquadash to +4, and the most fail I've had were 2 times, but most of the times I get it with no fail (such a good feeling when the text box fills with "Imbued successfully!". b:dirty
  • Morrzan - Sanctuary
    Morrzan - Sanctuary Posts: 97 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    LenieClarke - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    the pseudorandom number generator(s) this game uses seem to be prone to "runs" --- their outcomes apparently don't always change as often or as drastically as humans would expect of "random" numbers, but get stuck in repetitive sequences for long periods of time. over long enough periods of time they probably average out to randomness, or something reasonably close to it, but that doesn't help you when you just spent your last mirage to get back to +1.

    anyway, relogging is one of the things that appear to re-salt the PRNG(s) involved. dramatically changing your in-game behavior sometimes manages it, also --- in other words, go do something completely different for a while.

    This is true. I saw this thread and decided to experiment. The first 10 or so refines were about average with Success, fail, Success, fail... after that, i proceded to get fail, fail, fail, fail, fail around 10 times. I exited the window, and tried again. I got my necklace to +6 and my ring to +3 with no failures. I was just doing this as an experiment though, refined my necklace again, and it failed, and continued to fail until i opened another window.
  • RainbowVidel - Sanctuary
    RainbowVidel - Sanctuary Posts: 1,316 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Yep, no wasted Mirages. Instead, you get to spend almost 3 times the price to "save" those o-so-precious Mirages that are currently dirt-cheap.

    I'd rather spend more for a guaranteed success than gamble on a low chance and hope to get lucky. But that's just me.
  • Tygurr - Sanctuary
    Tygurr - Sanctuary Posts: 296 Arc User
    edited July 2010
    RainbowVidel - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I'd rather spend more for a guaranteed success than gamble on a low chance and hope to get lucky. But that's just me.

    Me too, Rain. b:victory
    Somewhat retired from PWI, now playing Hellgate Global full time

Categories