How much nothing can you get?

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

He was referring to the effect on the price of tokens, not on the effect on the price of gold.

Wrong. He said : "The odds of Tokens have only gone from 97% to 98%. But I suspect that the difference is that that extra 1% used to be Best Luck Tokens, which was injecting 5 million into the economy, which was the main cause of inflation."

He said inflation. Inflation in this game refers to price of gold. How you can infer that he was talking about price of tokens is beyond me.

And the decrease in odds to get valuable items is largely offset by the difference in price of gold. Yes, your chances of getting a valuable prize has dropped from 3% to 2%, a 33% decrease. But anniv packs cost about 500k on HT last time they were available. Coral packs are about 351k (if you get the 50 for 45 gold deal), which is a 30% decrease.

Umm, that was my whole point. There was a huge drop in odds of getting valuable items (33% decrease) which made it less valuable, hence less desire to buy them, hence less demand for gold and hence lower gold price relative to anni pack days. That's why you can get coral packs for much lower than anni packs.

I think you're vastly underestimating the effect of best luck tokens. Look at the price of gold after packs are removed. The introduction of high-value prizes into the game doesn't alter the ratio of coin vs. gold available in the AH, so they can't change the cost of gold after the packs go away. You could see this during the first Jolly Jones event, when gold went from about 110k to 170k, then back down to about 118k when the event ended. There was a bit of coin injected into the economy by oracles, and some coin didn't leave the economy due to people not having to buy shards from NPCs. But the overall effect was small, about a 7% increase in the amount of coin.

OTOH, best luck tokens directly injected coin into the economy, devaluing it relative to gold (just like what happens when the government prints more money). The anniv packs were introduced right after the second Jolly Jones event (which peaked with gold at about 180k), so it's difficult to get a reliable baseline on the price of gold. But it was somewhere between 120k-140k. During the first anniversary packs, the price of gold shot up to 300k, gradually rising to about 360k. And here's the important part - when the packs were removed, gold dropped down, but only to the high 200s. Essentially, the best luck tokens during the first month of anniversary packs about doubled the amount of coin in the economy, thus causing a permanent doubling of the baseline cost of gold. Subsequent releases of anniv packs resulted in smaller but similar permanent increases in the price of gold once they were removed.

I don't know why people need to make things up to try to prove something. How can you possibly know that anni packs doubled the amount of coin in the economy? Can you tell me how many Best Luck Tokens were created as a result on the anni packs? No? Do you know how much coin was in the economy at the time? No? Then how would you know that the amount of coin doubled?

LifeHunting - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Your thinking I use In-game coin to buy the packs o.O??

Dead Wrong. I buy gold and get it that way.

The point still remains. 1 gold can get you 15 tokens [through a pack] or ~350k coin [haven't checked the exchange recently but that's an approximation]. So essentially 15 tokens = 350k coin if you use the packs.

If you buy from characters 15 tokens =180k coins, at 12k a token. Quite the better deal no matter which way you view it.

And a lunar is going to be 50 mil+, so I'm not quite sure why you'd value 15 tokens over getting that from a pack...b:surrender

LifeHunting - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Don't worry. I solely have my eyes on Warsoul as my End-game, End-wep, nothing else will work for PWI


If I get a Lunar wep Insignia i'll most likely use it to get cash.....or.....-thinks for a second- wait.....What else this thing do besides cash and wep o.O??

It can get given to me.

b:dirty

A friend of mine got a Lunar weapon in his 9th pack. I bought like 100 and got one best luck. Needless to say my friend loves rubbing it in...

Yup gambling is a quick accessible addiction.

To those who bought over 100 (either with dollars or coin), congrats you're probably addicted to gambling. Enjoy.

I really don't understand the pay2win attitudes of some people. It's typically the people who are too **** to play competitively without event gear that get em. It's like wow, you just spent upwards of $500 to get your name known on an obscure mmo.

Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »

This is BS. Just be patience. Maybe not at these pack, but will come another or maybe you will save more money. Never say never. I also waiting on my lunar cape and nothing. I'm normally thinking to start grinding and gather mats for these new lunar capes. I know they are expensive but not impossible to get by the time.

Buy the Wing Trophy - Lunar Glade.

From a previous calculation:

Michael_dark - Lost City wrote: »

Yeah, and have you seen the two new capes at the Lunar forges? The -6 chan and -.05 interval capes? They'll cost you 3-5 times a Wing Trophy Lunar Glade..

2 Essence Crystals (easy to farm now)
6 Unknown Tinders (rare drop, lower drop rate than chromatic, but actually less common): 140 chips + 3m coins ea
3 Chromatic Tinders (rare drop even before nerf) 420 chips + 9m coins ea
9 Ancient Tinders (uncommon drop) 420 chips + 9m coin ea
30 Essence of Nature

5880 chips and 124 million coin.

5292 tokesn at 19k ea = 100548000

Total Cost = 224.5m coin.

Even if you can get a few gold tinders from actually running the instance, you'll knock maybe 20-40m off the total cost.

I bought my Lunar Wing Trophy for 65m, only because I saw the cost of these new capes, which aren't even as nice and I was afraid that if packs come back out, they won't put them in because they'll want you to 'farm' one (with your bank account) instead.

LOL, i opened 3(happened to find 3 of them for 200k each) and got tokens, a plat HP and a plat MP. im done opening them now xD.

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

Because Solandri is one sharp cookie. Maybe I wasn't 100% clear, but he interpreted exactly what my intended meaning was correctly.

The Best Luck Tokens were causing massive inflation back when Ann Packs were the only source of Tokens. But the Coral packs give less than 1/2 as many Best Luck Tokens, which means far less inflation, which may (I'm theorizing) be why Tokens are continuing to drop in price further than they ever have in the past.

Well maybe he's your psychic twin then. b:laugh

Anyways, I'm not sure you realize this, but you just reiterated my interpretation. You're saying 2 things here :
(1) Best Luck Tokens is what is causing inflation
(2) less BLT result in less inflation (because of point 1) and so regular token price is dropping
I'm addressing your first point (btw, the quote from you in my original post spoke nothing about regular token price and only spoke of the inflation).

You said Best Luck Tokens are causing the inflation,(ie. it is causing the increase in gold price). My point is that it's not just a simple matter of BLT affecting gold price. My point is that the value of the pack itself affects the gold price. There was a huge drop in odds of getting valuable items (33% decrease) which made the new packs less valuable, hence less desire to buy them, hence less demand for gold and hence lower gold price relative to anni pack days.

Finally, thanks for sharing your views and thoughts of Solandri with me, but that doesn't change the fact that he just made up that bit about doubling the amount of coin in the economy.



ADDED: BTW, in case it's still not clear, I'm not disputing the inflationary influence of BLTs. My point is that you're neglecting to consider the inflationary influence contributed by the value of the packs themselves. Taking ani packs as an example, if the price of gold was solely determined by BLTs (and the corresponding increase in coin supply), then gold price should not drop sharply after the sale is over since the coin supply will not suddenly deplete itself. The fact that it did drop sharply shows how influential the high value of ani packs were on the price of gold when the packs were available.