How much nothing can you get?

When first coral pack come out, i get 2 token of best luck and frost covered sign force.
(as i remember it was less than 80 packs)

For today coral pack, i get 2 token of best luck, platinum HP charm, lunar insignia weapon.
(about 121 pack Q.Q)

I just figure out. There are two coral packs.b:angry
http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/21385
http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/21466

Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »

I just figure out. There are two coral packs.b:angry
http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/21385
http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/21466

The difference only at token of luck and best luck ? b:surrender
Lucky Coral =
Token 98 %
Best Luck 0,72 %

Coral of Luck =
Token 97 %
Best Luck 1,72 %

These 1 % affect a lot i guess. b:shocked

wtvdie wrote: »

im fairly sure i said i opened 560 coral packs. ive got a few thousand tokens.

TY. So you are horribly unlucky person. b:sad

Didn't get any packs on my main this time... But bought four packs on my Lost City alt and got a Lunar Weapon in the last one. b:chuckle

I opened a lot less than usual this time around. Got nothing. So I just sold a lot of gold and saved up all of the coin.


Let's just say that my psychic will have a rare dragonling essence soulsphere. b:chuckle

first sale - 100 packs , from ingame coins ---
fc weap, wing trophy, savant stone, prim stone, some best luck<-- not sure how many but more than 2

2nd sale 100 packs from ingame coins---
rapture chest, wing trophy, 1 best luck,goldmane lion lord<- from pet box


cant really complain, as i made a bunchload of money with those sales

samasalao wrote: »

Quilue - Sanctuary wrote: »

have you noticed that gold hasn't gone as high?

I think the reason is that ppl is getting only tokens and many are giving up on them and so not buying gold, I agree that something is odd with current coral packs, I opened 53 and got tokens only b:sad, I gave up on this event.

IMO admins nerfed the rates that this set of packs give anything but tokens, there is absolutely no way to prove it though so is pure speculation from my side.

This isn't anything new. I dunno about the other servers, but on HT gold prices picked up right where they left off last time coral packs were out.

Last time anniv packs were out, gold was around 470-500k. When coral packs came out, the initial assumption was that, except for some items swapped in/out, they were the same as anniv packs. Gold started at 500k. Over the next weeks, gold gradually dropped down to about 400k, in response to people figuring out that the coral packs weren't as good as the anniv packs. There was a small spike just before the packs disappeared, but the bottom was around 400k.

This time around, gold spiked from 320k to 400k when coral packs came back. Basically the price of gold picked up right where they ended last time coral packs were out. It then slowly dropped over the week, hitting a low (that I saw) of around 370k before rising again. It's back up to about 390k now (385k buy / 400k sell), but it's Sunday night so I'm guessing that's mostly due to speculative buying in anticipation of more sale items being introduced after Tuesday's maintenance.

So unlike anniv packs, which caused a slow, gradual rise in the price of gold, coral packs have seen an initial spike (due to people assuming they were like anniv packs) followed by a long, slow decline. My guess is they're close to bottoming out if they haven't already, based on my calculations for their value vs. the anniv packs.

What's more interesting is the price of tokens. They've been on a long seemingly endless spiral downward. On HT they're on the verge of dropping below 12k. Just before I finished for the night, the price on cat shops in W archo was 12.2k sell / 11.7k buy. I'm not sure what to make of it. The unpopularity of the coral packs should've curtailed the supply of tokens, causing their price to stabilize. So I'm wrong about something going on in this market.

It's good that they lowered the chances of getting anything good out of the packs. It's completely stupid to allow people to get end-game items just from opening a damn pack. While i do possess alot of end-game equipment myself id gladly give it up to go back to the way things were before the freakin anniversary packs came out so it can be fair for everyone again! Even tho were paying for the stuff...anyone with cash can just say...*hey iv got cash...if you got an end-game item ill buy it*!...and there you go.....instant end-game item....that person didnt work for it or nothing: and just about anyone has cash they can spend to do this: before long just about everyone on all servers will have end-game gears. Whats the point: if you want individuality anymore you might aswell play *FAKE PWI*........in that version you get absolutely everything and more than even REAL PWI can offer: everything is available in the cashop for free. It seems like the only difference in the real PWI is that you have to spend real cash to get them...These damn packs need to *STOP COMPLETELY* and only come *ONCE A YEAR* did ya hear that PWI?.....I love ya but please stop....flying mounts, land mounts just about anything is fine in the packs as long as it isnt *OVER-POWERED GEARS THAT SHOULD BE EARNED AND NOT BOUGHT BY LUCK OF THE DRAW! PLEASE PLAESE PLEASE!!!.....dont come out with anymore of these pack events untill the acuall anniversary: and keep it that way so we can all enjoy the fun of acually doing instances and helping eachother again to get what we want in-game. While some love these events they dont really see what damage its doing to the game and its gameplay...it is possible to come up with other ways to make cash to support this online game: but since now almost every server is spoiled rotten to the core with being handed end-game gears just about all want the packs to come back in the instant they leave the shop....I'll tell you all what i do when this event comes around.....since the chances of getting anything are lowering with every new apperance of these items i just save coin and charge my card until someone gets lucky and i make an offer and simply buy what i waited for.........yup! thats right people.........its that easy and everyone is catching onto that trend........................THATS WHY THESE PACKS NEED TO STOP!!! Please PWI we all love ya but come up with something that doesnt make this game monotonous.

I haven't been crazy enough (or rich enough. b:chuckle) to afford that many packs, but I've purchased ~100 packs, and every single pack gave me tokens. : / I think that this is catered to only heavy spenders, as no matter how many I open at once, I still get nothing.



Suffice to say, I've stopped opening these damned packs. >:(

Wait a minute . . i am trying to understand whats happening here . . b:shocked

First : Anni pack arrive, everyone Q.Q of end game items. No more fun & fair game.

Second : Coral pack come out, everyone Q.Q for the low chance to get end game items. And want
" Return of Anniversary Pack by Popular demand. "

b:laugh b:victory

wtvdie wrote: »

Thats got to be it. the game has some mechanic that knows if you've spent real money or not. I've not spent a penny and ive gotten so many packs. same with jj, i got so many angels hoping for anything decent. this game must have an anti freebie mechanic

This is the same logic that many gambling addicts believe.

Check out any forum about any gambling site or casino and you'll find dozens of people who are convinced that the reason they haven't won (yet) is because the house has some sort of secret system of picking favourites.

Quilue - Sanctuary wrote: »

people wanted token packs, well here it is. the chance of getting tokens is so high that the token price on sanct has dropped wayy lower than when anniv packs were around. also gold hasn't spiked to 450k-500k like when anniv packs were around.

cheaper shards, cheaper event food, cheaper skill books, cheaper *cough* oracles

i'd say these packs are relatively harmless.

The odds of Tokens have only gone from 97% to 98%. But I suspect that the difference is that that extra 1% used to be Best Luck Tokens, which was injecting 5 million into the economy, which was the main cause of inflation.

Best Luck Tokens are far rarer now (0.72% instead of 1.72%), meaning less inflation. Plus people have probably stopped hoarding Tokens, since everybody now knows there's always going to be a steady supply of them from now on.

Combine the reduced inflation with the lower odds of uber-items like Scroll of Tome and overall the Coral Packs are much less damaging to the game economy than the Anniversary Packs were. Of course, the Anniversary Packs will be coming back at some point...

WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »

The odds of Tokens have only gone from 97% to 98%. But I suspect that the difference is that that extra 1% used to be Best Luck Tokens, which was injecting 5 million into the economy, which was the main cause of inflation.

"Only" gone from 97% to 98%? This means the odds for getting valuable items have gone from 3% to 2%. That's a 33% decrease on the odds for getting valuable items. The old rate is 50% better than the new rate for getting valuable items.

I think you're putting too much emphasis on the Best Luck Token. I'll use an extreme example to illustrate my point. If they had a new pack with no Best Luck Tokens but proportionately bumped up the drop rate of all other valuable items to 10% (ie. 90% tokens and 10% valuable items), gold price would shoot through the roof. Everyone would want to get those. Cash-shoppers will simply charge more on their credit card. But non-cashshoppers will have to acquire gold with coin through the AH. Increased demand for gold means gold prices shoots through the roof even with no Best Luck Tokens in the equation. Simple matter of supply and demand.

This I believe is why gold went higher with the anni packs. It was simply more desirable hence more non-cashhoppers needed gold to buy them and hence higher gold prices. The Best Luck Token simply added to that affect, but I believe it was not the main contributing factor.

mightymoose wrote: »

"Only" gone from 97% to 98%? This means the odds for getting valuable items have "only" gone from 3% to 2%. That's "only" a 33% decrease on the odds for getting valuable items!

He was referring to the effect on the price of tokens, not on the effect on the price of gold.

And the decrease in odds to get valuable items is largely offset by the difference in price of gold. Yes, your chances of getting a valuable prize has dropped from 3% to 2%, a 33% decrease. But anniv packs cost about 500k on HT last time they were available. Coral packs are about 351k (if you get the 50 for 45 gold deal), which is a 30% decrease.

I think you're putting too much emphasis on the Best Luck Token. I'll use an extreme example to illustrate my point. If they had a new pack with no Best Luck Tokens but proportionately bumped up the drop rate of all other valuable items to 10% (ie. 90% tokens and 10% valuable items), gold price would shoot through the roof. Everyone would want to get those. Cash-shoppers will simply charge more on their credit card. But non-cashshoppers will have to acquire gold with coin through the AH. Increased demand for gold means gold prices shoots through the roof even with no Best Luck Tokens in the equation. Simple matter of supply and demand.

I think you're vastly underestimating the effect of best luck tokens. Look at the price of gold after packs are removed. The introduction of high-value prizes into the game doesn't alter the ratio of coin vs. gold available in the AH, so they can't change the cost of gold after the packs go away. You could see this during the first Jolly Jones event, when gold went from about 110k to 170k, then back down to about 118k when the event ended. There was a bit of coin injected into the economy by oracles, and some coin didn't leave the economy due to people not having to buy shards from NPCs. But the overall effect was small, about a 7% increase in the amount of coin.

OTOH, best luck tokens directly injected coin into the economy, devaluing it relative to gold (just like what happens when the government prints more money). The anniv packs were introduced right after the second Jolly Jones event (which peaked with gold at about 180k), so it's difficult to get a reliable baseline on the price of gold. But it was somewhere between 120k-140k. During the first anniversary packs, the price of gold shot up to 300k, gradually rising to about 360k. And here's the important part - when the packs were removed, gold dropped down, but only to the high 200s. Essentially, the best luck tokens during the first month of anniversary packs about doubled the amount of coin in the economy, thus causing a permanent doubling of the baseline cost of gold. Subsequent releases of anniv packs resulted in smaller but similar permanent increases in the price of gold once they were removed.