Remove the AH Gold Bidding Limit!!!
Comments
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jamesburr36 wrote: »
How about you look at the gold price trend for the past 8 years. It's nothing but an incline. Again gold is priced at what people are willing to pay for it and guess what? Those on the server with the most coin are going to compete for it. That's why it always goes up and not back down.
Think about it.
You are just plain wrong in here.
I'm not wrong. I mentioned gold prices increased for the past 8 years. I always knew it was because of the amount of coin on the servers. I have always advocated for a coin sink but the issue is that it has to be targeted toward those few who are hording 100s of billions in coins and not to everyone. A coin sink targeted at everyone is going to squeeze the poorer players the most and will not accomplish much
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jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »
How about you look at the gold price trend for the past 8 years. It's nothing but an incline. Again gold is priced at what people are willing to pay for it and guess what? Those on the server with the most coin are going to compete for it. That's why it always goes up and not back down.
Think about it.
You are just plain wrong in here.
I'm not wrong. I mentioned gold prices increased for the past 8 years. I always knew it was because of the amount of coin on the servers. I have always advocated for a coin sink but the issue is that it has to be targeted toward those few who are hording 100s of billions in coins and not to everyone. A coin sink targeted at everyone is going to squeeze the poorer players the most and will not accomplish much
Having a gold sink doesn't change the fact that there's still the same supply of gold being spread towards too many players. It doesn't matter what the gold price is - some players will miss out because there's simply not enough gold to meet the needs of every character. The only reason someone poor would be able to get his hands on cheap gold is if there was something that was more desire-able than gold to spend those coins on.
If we want to make the game even more p2w than it already is, then sure, we can put in, say, S+ card boxes with a 25% chance to drop an S+. Set the price of the S+ boxes at 3 billion coins. Make it a limited time offer, so that the boxes stop dropping any cards once 10 players complete their set. If you don't complete the set, then all your cards vanish at the end of the event.
The KEY here though, is that it MUST be enough to convince players to take all their buy orders out of AH and dump what gold they have to get a set of S+. It has to be something endgame players value more than gold itself.
That would probably be an outcome that would affect players the least, but only if they're willing to accept a couple players being completely, flat out unbeatable. This would have real implications in terms of TW and X-TW as well, so it affects more than just simple SP pvp.0 -
You still haven't offered an actual solution besides just stating basic stuff that everyone knows. The issue here isn't about understanding basic economic principles, it's about applying them effectively based on the environment and situation. You are talking about removing trillions of coins from the economy to help pure f2p players buy a couple gold easier, without explaining just how you're going to accomplish that.
What would be a reasonable rate to offer endgame shards at, and what kind of shards would you offer that would be acceptable for China? What would be the impact on pack sales or charge promos if you started selling DoD/DoT from an npc at 60m each? If you're not offering a solution that can be implemented by China, then that solution is useless. It's also not enough to lower gold under 4m - you'd need to do even more.
It's easy to say, for example, "Oh North Korea is super weak we can just nuke them, idk why Washington is so incompetent." Or, "Mexicans can pay for the wall if we just charge super high tariffs of them, easy". That's a very easy "basic" analysis anyone can make. Everyone thinks they could just fix everything if they got a chance to be President, because at the end of the day the actual solution is simple - the execution and consequences aren't.
No? If everybody knows the basic stuff, why do I now need to elaborate? Very basic adjustments could help large portion of the playerbase with minimal negative consequences. I would have to spend some time on CN to see their prices, I prolly will do that at some point when I can bother, chances are their shards are in fact more expensive so any npc selling them might be problematic. Then again having it being temporary aka NPC GMs can spawn when they feel the need might eliminate that issue as if CN doesnt like it, they just dont spawn it. As for price, it depends how large sink you want to create. 90m would currently drain coin from Et, 60-70m would drain pretty absurd amounts as lot of players would in fact be just getting +3 shards. The problem with pricing of shards is the fact they fluctuate quite a bit - Right now the 90m would work because we are pre sochi sale, after the prices will have come down 10-20% as long as there is no other gold sink on the sale.
So in reality 70m on a temporary NPC might do the trick. But no, it would not need to even remove offers from AH for gold prices to come down. This is because ppl would A) charge more now that they can actually do their shards relatively cheap and
Large problem of why AH is as stuck as it is because everyone is trying to buy gold. By removing some of the buffer coin from majority of the buyers, even if few whales were to have more than enough coin to keep buying, the gold prices would come down as demand, due there not being as much coin left, would come down.
Ps. Fixing economy is impossible, everybody has different preferences but making it better for large amount of players is pretty simple.0 -
You still haven't offered an actual solution besides just stating basic stuff that everyone knows. The issue here isn't about understanding basic economic principles, it's about applying them effectively based on the environment and situation. You are talking about removing trillions of coins from the economy to help pure f2p players buy a couple gold easier, without explaining just how you're going to accomplish that.
What would be a reasonable rate to offer endgame shards at, and what kind of shards would you offer that would be acceptable for China? What would be the impact on pack sales or charge promos if you started selling DoD/DoT from an npc at 60m each? If you're not offering a solution that can be implemented by China, then that solution is useless. It's also not enough to lower gold under 4m - you'd need to do even more.
It's easy to say, for example, "Oh North Korea is super weak we can just nuke them, idk why Washington is so incompetent." Or, "Mexicans can pay for the wall if we just charge super high tariffs of them, easy". That's a very easy "basic" analysis anyone can make. Everyone thinks they could just fix everything if they got a chance to be President, because at the end of the day the actual solution is simple - the execution and consequences aren't.
No? If everybody knows the basic stuff, why do I now need to elaborate? Very basic adjustments could help large portion of the playerbase with minimal negative consequences. I would have to spend some time on CN to see their prices, I prolly will do that at some point when I can bother, chances are their shards are in fact more expensive so any npc selling them might be problematic. Then again having it being temporary aka NPC GMs can spawn when they feel the need might eliminate that issue as if CN doesnt like it, they just dont spawn it. As for price, it depends how large sink you want to create. 90m would currently drain coin from Et, 60-70m would drain pretty absurd amounts as lot of players would in fact be just getting +3 shards. The problem with pricing of shards is the fact they fluctuate quite a bit - Right now the 90m would work because we are pre sochi sale, after the prices will have come down 10-20% as long as there is no other gold sink on the sale.
So in reality 70m on a temporary NPC might do the trick. But no, it would not need to even remove offers from AH for gold prices to come down. This is because ppl would A) charge more now that they can actually do their shards relatively cheap and Large problem of why AH is as stuck as it is because everyone is trying to buy gold. By removing some of the buffer coin from majority of the buyers, even if few whales were to have more than enough coin to keep buying, the gold prices would come down as demand, due there not being as much coin left, would come down.
Ps. Fixing economy is impossible, everybody has different preferences but making it better for large amount of players is pretty simple.
Again, all you're doing is promising solutions and saying just doing tiny things would somehow lower gold prices. CN gold prices are at something like 1 million because R9 is mostly nonexistent there. People farm up to R8rrr and there's a large demand for pve-farmed materials. "Nuking" bosses is not a common fact of life there.
You do realize you can only buy 49 gold at any one time in the AH, right? That means there's at least hundreds of people wanting to buy gold right now and have the coins to do so.
Selling DoD for 90m is not nearly going to be enough. A 10% discount on DoD is not going to convince anyone not already capable to go for serenity - 3x JoSD per slot is prohibitively expensive. I know personally I'd still be putting 49 gold buy orders into AH even with DoD at 90m.
For a coin sink to work, it needs to be able to convince players to dump their coin base on that coin sink instead of putting it in AH to buy gold. It needs to convince hundreds of players to do that, without unbalancing the game completely.0 -
you can (could) actually buy 250 gold at one go in AH......
And I dont get why you are so against a coinsink? Coinsink is the ONLY solution to drain out coins from the server.
You cant just simply remove cap but not drain out coins before. Gold price will be astronomical high.0 -
you can (could) actually buy 250 gold at one go in AH......
And I dont get why you are so against a coinsink? Coinsink is the ONLY solution to drain out coins from the server.
You cant just simply remove cap but not drain out coins before. Gold price will be astronomical high.
If you can implement a viable coin-sink I'd be all for it. But people thinking selling DoD's for 80m will somehow magically fix the economy and halve gold prices are being way too optimistic.
I'm here to discuss ways to alleviate a problem, not talk about "how it should be". You can go to any subway or barbershop and listen to people rattle on about "how things should be". Gold "should be" selling for under 1m. That's nice, but how do you convince enough players to not want to buy gold or dump enough coins for it to go down that much? And even then, it does NOTHING to change the actual supply of gold.
Uncapping gold is probably the easiest, no-thought-required fix for the economy to get endgame items moving again. Right now there is zero incentive for shops to sell at a discount because coins are worthless. Pack/key prices are astronomically high because the shops know players will pay them since it's so hard to get their hands on gold. The power is in the hands of Cash-Shoppers right now because having gold makes you the King in this economy.
People right now are so scared of inflation that they would rather subsist on 5-10 gold a week rather than pay what the actual fair market price for gold actually is. This results in people having the same exact gear for months while sitting on hundreds of millions or even billions of coins.
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Again, all you're doing is promising solutions and saying just doing tiny things would somehow lower gold prices. CN gold prices are at something like 1 million because R9 is mostly nonexistent there. People farm up to R8rrr and there's a large demand for pve-farmed materials. "Nuking" bosses is not a common fact of life there.
You do realize you can only buy 49 gold at any one time in the AH, right? That means there's at least hundreds of people wanting to buy gold right now and have the coins to do so.
Selling DoD for 90m is not nearly going to be enough. A 10% discount on DoD is not going to convince anyone not already capable to go for serenity - 3x JoSD per slot is prohibitively expensive. I know personally I'd still be putting 49 gold buy orders into AH even with DoD at 90m.
For a coin sink to work, it needs to be able to convince players to dump their coin base on that coin sink instead of putting it in AH to buy gold. It needs to convince hundreds of players to do that, without unbalancing the game completely.
I dont even...
CN gold prices are like 1m because their gold`s purchasing power is much lower than ours. By what I mean, each gold gives you way less boutique items than it does in here. Funnily enough things like Nebula dusts are priced like ours in gold, making them bout 7x more expensive in our version. Either way, DoTs seem to be priced 100m-105m there, DoDs are interestingly enough bit lower at 80-85m. In short if they were to do shards NPC, it would have to be disabled on CN version.
You do realize you can actually buy 245 gold at once?
I said the 90m (10% discount) would remove some coin, while the 70m would remove a lot of it. This is the same strawman **** you been doing this whole discussion, which quite frankly is getting pretty boring. Historically DoDs/DoTs havent gone under 70m in ages, maybe some dips at 65m on some smaller server. Either way, when you know you likely arent going to get cheaper than that DoDs/DoTs most ppl would invest and finish their +3s if they have the ability to do so. Some would try to merch the shards for profit, removing coin out of economy nonethless. This all hinges on the fact the npc would be temporary, which I think it should be.
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Again, all you're doing is promising solutions and saying just doing tiny things would somehow lower gold prices. CN gold prices are at something like 1 million because R9 is mostly nonexistent there. People farm up to R8rrr and there's a large demand for pve-farmed materials. "Nuking" bosses is not a common fact of life there.
You do realize you can only buy 49 gold at any one time in the AH, right? That means there's at least hundreds of people wanting to buy gold right now and have the coins to do so.
Selling DoD for 90m is not nearly going to be enough. A 10% discount on DoD is not going to convince anyone not already capable to go for serenity - 3x JoSD per slot is prohibitively expensive. I know personally I'd still be putting 49 gold buy orders into AH even with DoD at 90m.
For a coin sink to work, it needs to be able to convince players to dump their coin base on that coin sink instead of putting it in AH to buy gold. It needs to convince hundreds of players to do that, without unbalancing the game completely.
I dont even...
CN gold prices are like 1m because their gold`s purchasing power is much lower than ours. By what I mean, each gold gives you way less boutique items than it does in here. Funnily enough things like Nebula dusts are priced like ours in gold, making them bout 7x more expensive in our version. Either way, DoTs seem to be priced 100m-105m there, DoDs are interestingly enough bit lower at 80-85m. In short if they were to do shards NPC, it would have to be disabled on CN version.
You do realize you can actually buy 245 gold at once?
I said the 90m (10% discount) would remove some coin, while the 70m would remove a lot of it. This is the same strawman **** you been doing this whole discussion, which quite frankly is getting pretty boring. Historically DoDs/DoTs havent gone under 70m in ages, maybe some dips at 65m on some smaller server. Either way, when you know you likely arent going to get cheaper than that DoDs/DoTs most ppl would invest and finish their +3s if they have the ability to do so. Some would try to merch the shards for profit, removing coin out of economy nonethless. This all hinges on the fact the npc would be temporary, which I think it should be.
Wow, I think you're seriously out of touch with reality. Even at current AH prices 70m DoD means you're paying 420+ million coin for 1 defense level. That's less than a 1% improvement in survivability for most people. By comparison, spending 3b on a CoM would give me a 10% boost in both survivability AND offense. That's over 10x more efficient. And CoM isn't even the most efficient thing I could spend my coin on atm. It also means PWI is intentionally devaluing their DoD, which is a huge income maker for PWI.
Jades in general are a lower priority than gear/refine/skills/charts/cards/etc. If you want to make it attractive then just sell A cards for straight coin - but that will only fix the inflation for as long as everyone is able to get a full set of RB cards, and then we'll run into the issue again.
Are you telling me that you would stop buying gold at 4m if you were able to get DoD's at 70m? Because I wouldn't. I'd still be putting in 40-50 gold buy orders every week at 3999900, because I can get free gems with that gold just by being patient.
Again, you think you're helping by stating the obvious but it won't do jack squat. I can say right now that putting in an NPC that sells gold at 3 million coin will fix the AH cap problem instantly with a 100% chance, regardless of player behavior or current prices. I can say I'm super smart because this is such an easy and obvious solution. It also has exactly 0% chance to actually be implemented. This is basic stuff you're trying to tell everyone.
You are trying too hard to help people who's only income is BH and who log in only a couple times a week, when the easier solution is just to make it easier for those newbies to obtain their basic gears via things like newbie supply boxes dropping bound items.
BTW - China did respond to the sudden spike in gold price by lowering the drop rates of keys, apparently. So they do monitor inflation - I think they underestimated just how popular keys would become just by introducing a goldfoil into it.0 -
Wow, I think you're seriously out of touch with reality. Even at current AH prices 70m DoD means you're paying 420+ million coin for 1 defense level. That's less than a 1% improvement in survivability for most people. By comparison, spending 3b on a CoM would give me a 10% boost in both survivability AND offense. That's over 10x more efficient. And CoM isn't even the most efficient thing I could spend my coin on atm. It also means PWI is intentionally devaluing their DoD, which is a huge income maker for PWI.
Jades in general are a lower priority than gear/refine/skills/charts/cards/etc. If you want to make it attractive then just sell A cards for straight coin - but that will only fix the inflation for as long as everyone is able to get a full set of RB cards, and then we'll run into the issue again.
Are you telling me that you would stop buying gold at 4m if you were able to get DoD's at 70m? Because I wouldn't. I'd still be putting in 40-50 gold buy orders every week at 3999900, because I can get free gems with that gold just by being patient.
Again, you think you're helping by stating the obvious but it won't do jack squat. I can say right now that putting in an NPC that sells gold at 3 million coin will fix the AH cap problem instantly with a 100% chance, regardless of player behavior or current prices. I can say I'm super smart because this is such an easy and obvious solution. It also has exactly 0% chance to actually be implemented. This is basic stuff you're trying to tell everyone.
You are trying too hard to help people who's only income is BH and who log in only a couple times a week, when the easier solution is just to make it easier for those newbies to obtain their basic gears via things like newbie supply boxes dropping bound items.
BTW - China did respond to the sudden spike in gold price by lowering the drop rates of keys, apparently. So they do monitor inflation - I think they underestimated just how popular keys would become just by introducing a goldfoil into it.
Holy moly. I assumed you said the ppl with billions and billions are the problem, shard npc would be pretty direct and enticing option for them. I know plenty of ppl who would get +3s if there was simply enough supply on market at reasonable price to do so. The problem ppl who are buying gold "no matter" are the ones w/o any reasonable upgrade paths and if you think +3 shards are laughable you really arent there. This is because gold is a safe investment for when new stuff comes out as generally its gonna be tied to gold somehow.
I am saying I would prioritize +3 shards over gold if they were reasonably priced and in stock - The most annoying part bout sharding is the time it takes even if you had the coin due low supply. Would that make me not buy gold any longer? Prolly not as I got enough coin to do both and because after that I would be literally done with gear till new things become available.
And rest of the post is basically strawman arguing, which has nothing to do with this thread.0 -
Wow, I think you're seriously out of touch with reality. Even at current AH prices 70m DoD means you're paying 420+ million coin for 1 defense level. That's less than a 1% improvement in survivability for most people. By comparison, spending 3b on a CoM would give me a 10% boost in both survivability AND offense. That's over 10x more efficient. And CoM isn't even the most efficient thing I could spend my coin on atm. It also means PWI is intentionally devaluing their DoD, which is a huge income maker for PWI.
Jades in general are a lower priority than gear/refine/skills/charts/cards/etc. If you want to make it attractive then just sell A cards for straight coin - but that will only fix the inflation for as long as everyone is able to get a full set of RB cards, and then we'll run into the issue again.
Are you telling me that you would stop buying gold at 4m if you were able to get DoD's at 70m? Because I wouldn't. I'd still be putting in 40-50 gold buy orders every week at 3999900, because I can get free gems with that gold just by being patient.
Again, you think you're helping by stating the obvious but it won't do jack squat. I can say right now that putting in an NPC that sells gold at 3 million coin will fix the AH cap problem instantly with a 100% chance, regardless of player behavior or current prices. I can say I'm super smart because this is such an easy and obvious solution. It also has exactly 0% chance to actually be implemented. This is basic stuff you're trying to tell everyone.
You are trying too hard to help people who's only income is BH and who log in only a couple times a week, when the easier solution is just to make it easier for those newbies to obtain their basic gears via things like newbie supply boxes dropping bound items.
BTW - China did respond to the sudden spike in gold price by lowering the drop rates of keys, apparently. So they do monitor inflation - I think they underestimated just how popular keys would become just by introducing a goldfoil into it.
Holy moly. I assumed you said the ppl with billions and billions are the problem, shard npc would be pretty direct and enticing option for them. I know plenty of ppl who would get +3s if there was simply enough supply on market at reasonable price to do so. The problem ppl who are buying gold "no matter" are the ones w/o any reasonable upgrade paths and if you think +3 shards are laughable you really arent there. This is because gold is a safe investment for when new stuff comes out as generally its gonna be tied to gold somehow.
I am saying I would prioritize +3 shards over gold if they were reasonably priced and in stock - The most annoying part bout sharding is the time it takes even if you had the coin due low supply. Would that make me not buy gold any longer? Prolly not as I got enough coin to do both and because after that I would be literally done with gear till new things become available.
And rest of the post is basically strawman arguing, which has nothing to do with this thread.
I mean you literally just proved my point. Your "solution" won't really stop anyone from buying gold, and I said as much. It's really not that hard to just check a catshop database and pick up all the DoD on sale every few weeks. If you think a 20% discount on JoSD is going to fix this game, you really don't understand how the PWI economy works.
Everything else you've said is basically just taking one or two basic economic principles and thinking applying that to the game will simply and magically fix everything and cause PWI no issues, without bothering to take into account rational player behavior.
I'll say it again one more time. The biggest issues causing players to feel squeezed is because of a lack of PVE farming ability, extreme favoritism of keys because of the goldfoil drops, and an extreme backlog of gold due to capping slowing the economy down. The small % of inflation caused from perfect luck tokens is completely fine and keeps the economy moving as long as gold is uncapped. The goldfoils were disastrous for the economy and should never have been implemented.
Selling DoD at a 20% discount fixes NONE of these issues except to take out probably as much coin as the housing system did from the economy. Why would China give away what is one of their biggest money-makers?
I honestly still can't believe you're trying to discuss an idea that has a 0% chance to be implemented and which won't even solve the cap issue. Like Holy Moly.0 -
I mean you literally just proved my point. Your "solution" won't really stop anyone from buying gold, and I said as much. It's really not that hard to just check a catshop database and pick up all the DoD on sale every few weeks. If you think a 20% discount on JoSD is going to fix this game, you really don't understand how the PWI economy works.
Everything else you've said is basically just taking one or two basic economic principles and thinking applying that to the game will simply and magically fix everything and cause PWI no issues, without bothering to take into account rational player behavior.
I'll say it again one more time. The biggest issues causing players to feel squeezed is because of a lack of PVE farming ability, extreme favoritism of keys because of the goldfoil drops, and an extreme backlog of gold due to capping slowing the economy down. The small % of inflation caused from perfect luck tokens is completely fine and keeps the economy moving as long as gold is uncapped. The goldfoils were disastrous for the economy and should never have been implemented.
Selling DoD at a 20% discount fixes NONE of these issues except to take out probably as much coin as the housing system did from the economy. Why would China give away what is one of their biggest money-makers?
I honestly still can't believe you're trying to discuss an idea that has a 0% chance to be implemented and which won't even solve the cap issue. Like Holy Moly.
Sigh, if I didnt have as much coin as I did it would effectively stop me from buying gold if said solution was implemented. Going +3 shards from +2s would be pretty exactly 10b at 70m ea. How many people are going to have massive stashes of coin left after dumping 10b? There are ppl like that but saying like there is no difference is absolutely idiotic. You cant drain certain ppl out of coin w/o some sort of Robin Hood system. Trying to drain the top10 wealthiest ppl in this game just isnt gonna happen and targeting them with a sink is silly, you target the ppl under them who you might be able to drain.
Game is pretty isolated environment and small, simple changes can achieve great changes. You dont need any massive overhaul to drain coin out of economy, which will naturally drive prices down Whether thats a good thing or not depends on your viewpoint I suppose.
We do agree on something then, foils were awful to say the least. Right now they arent a problem due gold prices being so high and keys being 30s during sale. If gold were to come down from cap, that would the biggest point of weakness for draining coin out of economy as with gold being cheap enough, you can just print coin and make profit doing so and we would be back to where we started from.
But I think I am done with this "discussion", if you truly are that stupid to think PWE would not make money by releasing shard NPC... In the long run its impossible to say as the rate PWI is losing players isnt exactly public but on short term, which seems to get PWE marketing team hard, they would absolutely make money. Some ppl have the coin on hand to get their shards sure but some, likely majority, would be charging for it. As a result gold prices would go down and PWE would make decent chunk of money with it. After seeing 100m shard prices and them just keeping on climbing, I would take the 70m shards and finish my shards if it was a possibility. I`m sure I`m not the only one either.
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I mean you literally just proved my point. Your "solution" won't really stop anyone from buying gold, and I said as much. It's really not that hard to just check a catshop database and pick up all the DoD on sale every few weeks. If you think a 20% discount on JoSD is going to fix this game, you really don't understand how the PWI economy works.
Everything else you've said is basically just taking one or two basic economic principles and thinking applying that to the game will simply and magically fix everything and cause PWI no issues, without bothering to take into account rational player behavior.
I'll say it again one more time. The biggest issues causing players to feel squeezed is because of a lack of PVE farming ability, extreme favoritism of keys because of the goldfoil drops, and an extreme backlog of gold due to capping slowing the economy down. The small % of inflation caused from perfect luck tokens is completely fine and keeps the economy moving as long as gold is uncapped. The goldfoils were disastrous for the economy and should never have been implemented.
Selling DoD at a 20% discount fixes NONE of these issues except to take out probably as much coin as the housing system did from the economy. Why would China give away what is one of their biggest money-makers?
I honestly still can't believe you're trying to discuss an idea that has a 0% chance to be implemented and which won't even solve the cap issue. Like Holy Moly.
Sigh, if I didnt have as much coin as I did it would effectively stop me from buying gold if said solution was implemented. Going +3 shards from +2s would be pretty exactly 10b at 70m ea. How many people are going to have massive stashes of coin left after dumping 10b? There are ppl like that but saying like there is no difference is absolutely idiotic. You cant drain certain ppl out of coin w/o some sort of Robin Hood system. Trying to drain the top10 wealthiest ppl in this game just isnt gonna happen and targeting them with a sink is silly, you target the ppl under them who you might be able to drain.
Game is pretty isolated environment and small, simple changes can achieve great changes. You dont need any massive overhaul to drain coin out of economy, which will naturally drive prices down Whether thats a good thing or not depends on your viewpoint I suppose.
We do agree on something then, foils were awful to say the least. Right now they arent a problem due gold prices being so high and keys being 30s during sale. If gold were to come down from cap, that would the biggest point of weakness for draining coin out of economy as with gold being cheap enough, you can just print coin and make profit doing so and we would be back to where we started from.
But I think I am done with this "discussion", if you truly are that stupid to think PWE would not make money by releasing shard NPC... In the long run its impossible to say as the rate PWI is losing players isnt exactly public but on short term, which seems to get PWE marketing team hard, they would absolutely make money. Some ppl have the coin on hand to get their shards sure but some, likely majority, would be charging for it. As a result gold prices would go down and PWE would make decent chunk of money with it. After seeing 100m shard prices and them just keeping on climbing, I would take the 70m shards and finish my shards if it was a possibility. I`m sure I`m not the only one either.
The issue would not be just making money. It's the opportunity cost of what you are giving up. 70m DoD's means PWI makes a little more than ~17 gold per DoD. This is ONLY if the person actually charges gold for it to sell on AH, instead of using his existing reserves, which means the actual money made will be much lower.
PWI currently makes at ~125 gold per DoD sold from packs, assuming a pack drop rate of .2% means a minimum of 500 packs opened to get that DoD.
Pack DoD are also guaranteed to make money because they can ONLY come from the cash shop. For PWI to even consider losing this much long term revenue, they'd have to introduce something stronger than DoD's into the packs that can't be upgraded from DoD's.
This is really something I don't want, because I'm tired of the gear treadmill. I'm sorry, but if the newbies want to save 3 million coin on gold prices to get the next newest fashion that comes out, they're going to have to find another way.Post edited by dregenfox on0 -
The issue would not be just making money. It's the opportunity cost of what you are giving up. 70m DoD's means PWI makes a little more than ~17 gold per DoD. This is ONLY if the person actually charges gold for it to sell on AH, instead of using his existing reserves, which means the actual money made will be much lower.
PWI currently makes at ~125 gold per DoD sold from packs, assuming a pack drop rate of .2% means a minimum of 500 packs opened to get that DoD.
Pack DoD are also guaranteed to make money because they can ONLY come from the cash shop. For PWI to even consider losing this much long term revenue, they'd have to introduce something stronger than DoD's into the packs that can't be upgraded from DoD's.
This is really something I don't want, because I'm tired of the gear treadmill. I'm sorry, but if the newbies want to save 3 million coin on gold prices to get the next newest fashion that comes out, they're going to have to find another way.
Do you even read what has been said? lol
I consistently spoke of temporary sink, it would only be short lived NPC. It wouldnt permanently drop the prices even if in reality the prices would be lower than they would be w/o such influx of shards at one point.
But there is one very important thing bout opportunity cost you are completely ignoring, PWI is losing ppl. Nobody is gonna play forever and the amount of ppl finishing shards this way vs going as they been doing is quite drastically different. The decision is basically taking some guaranteed money now, bit less in long term vs risking playerbase dying before you beat the first option.
As for your numbers, the conclusions are laughable. I assume you are lumping DoT and DoD together to get to 0,2% drop rate. Do you really think that something, which drops once every 500 packs, is going to affect the desirability of packs if that items value is cut by 30%? That drop isnt even exactly noticeable if you do estimated value for each pack but sure, its gonna kill PWEs profits in long term, rofl.
This kind of idiocy and complete lack of thinking/understanding is exactly the reason why I have very little motivation to continue this discussion.0 -
The issue would not be just making money. It's the opportunity cost of what you are giving up. 70m DoD's means PWI makes a little more than ~17 gold per DoD. This is ONLY if the person actually charges gold for it to sell on AH, instead of using his existing reserves, which means the actual money made will be much lower.
PWI currently makes at ~125 gold per DoD sold from packs, assuming a pack drop rate of .2% means a minimum of 500 packs opened to get that DoD.
Pack DoD are also guaranteed to make money because they can ONLY come from the cash shop. For PWI to even consider losing this much long term revenue, they'd have to introduce something stronger than DoD's into the packs that can't be upgraded from DoD's.
This is really something I don't want, because I'm tired of the gear treadmill. I'm sorry, but if the newbies want to save 3 million coin on gold prices to get the next newest fashion that comes out, they're going to have to find another way.
Do you even read what has been said? lol
I consistently spoke of temporary sink, it would only be short lived NPC. It wouldnt permanently drop the prices even if in reality the prices would be lower than they would be w/o such influx of shards at one point.
But there is one very important thing bout opportunity cost you are completely ignoring, PWI is losing ppl. Nobody is gonna play forever and the amount of ppl finishing shards this way vs going as they been doing is quite drastically different. The decision is basically taking some guaranteed money now, bit less in long term vs risking playerbase dying before you beat the first option.
As for your numbers, the conclusions are laughable. I assume you are lumping DoT and DoD together to get to 0,2% drop rate. Do you really think that something, which drops once every 500 packs, is going to affect the desirability of packs if that items value is cut by 30%? That drop isnt even exactly noticeable if you do estimated value for each pack but sure, its gonna kill PWEs profits in long term, rofl.
This kind of idiocy and complete lack of thinking/understanding is exactly the reason why I have very little motivation to continue this discussion.
Lol, are you kidding me? Nerfing the drop value of packs/keys by ~7% is massive in terms of profitability and forces people to take even bigger losses when taking the risk of opening packs. Did you actually do the math or did you just think ".2% is a small number so it must be insignificant"?
Even for keys, putting in Warsong/AEU chests caused a massive spike in sales despite their ridiculously low drop rate. Despite what you may think, most people who open massive quantities of packs DO care about the drop rates. It's why Sochi packs are so much more popular than any other pack even though the difference in drop rate between packs for SoT/CoM can be as low as .002%.
The other thing is that DoD/DoT sales only makes up a tiny % of the entire economy. To think that a small discount on gems would somehow cause a 50%+ drop in gold price (which is what is needed to actually lower gold's value enough to matter in terms of AH cap) is delusional when you consider the fact that at some point, people don't need to upgrade to DoD anymore while inflation will always be causing the gold price to rise.
At this point you're just so enamored with being "right" that you're willing to make yourself look stupid to try to support a point without even doing the math. Just stop, man.
Post edited by dregenfox on0 -
jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »
How about you look at the gold price trend for the past 8 years. It's nothing but an incline. Again gold is priced at what people are willing to pay for it and guess what? Those on the server with the most coin are going to compete for it. That's why it always goes up and not back down.
Think about it.
You are just plain wrong in here.
I'm not wrong. I mentioned gold prices increased for the past 8 years. I always knew it was because of the amount of coin on the servers. I have always advocated for a coin sink but the issue is that it has to be targeted toward those few who are hording 100s of billions in coins and not to everyone. A coin sink targeted at everyone is going to squeeze the poorer players the most and will not accomplish much
Having a gold sink doesn't change the fact that there's still the same supply of gold being spread towards too many players. It doesn't matter what the gold price is - some players will miss out because there's simply not enough gold to meet the needs of every character.
Gold is a cash shop item so why the hell is there SUPPOSED to be enough on the server to meet the needs of every character. Your notion that there is supposed to be enough gold on the server to meet everyone's needs is nuts.
There is plenty of gold on the server if one is willing to pay enough for it. Otherwise there is an endless amount of gold people can charge.0 -
jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »
How about you look at the gold price trend for the past 8 years. It's nothing but an incline. Again gold is priced at what people are willing to pay for it and guess what? Those on the server with the most coin are going to compete for it. That's why it always goes up and not back down.
Think about it.
You are just plain wrong in here.
I'm not wrong. I mentioned gold prices increased for the past 8 years. I always knew it was because of the amount of coin on the servers. I have always advocated for a coin sink but the issue is that it has to be targeted toward those few who are hording 100s of billions in coins and not to everyone. A coin sink targeted at everyone is going to squeeze the poorer players the most and will not accomplish much
Having a gold sink doesn't change the fact that there's still the same supply of gold being spread towards too many players. It doesn't matter what the gold price is - some players will miss out because there's simply not enough gold to meet the needs of every character.
Gold is a cash shop item so why the hell is there SUPPOSED to be enough on the server to meet the needs of every character. Your notion that there is supposed to be enough gold on the server to meet everyone's needs is nuts.
There is plenty of gold on the server if one is willing to pay enough for it. Otherwise there is an endless amount of gold people can charge.
Exactly. I think you're finally starting to understand basic economics. It doesn't matter whether the price of gold is 400k or 4m. There is the exact same supply for a given number of players. BH gives you the same amount of coins whether you are rich or poor. It doesn't discriminate.
The player who has more resources available will always win out over someone with less resources. That means in this game, CS'ers will always get first dibs on everything, and the F2P will get the leftover scrap, only after the needs of the CS'er has been satisfied.
Even if gold were to drop down to 400k, if a newbie puts up 100 gold for 400k, a CS'er would simply put up 100 gold at 401k, because he has the same exact income as the newbie except with the added resources of real world money, as well as superior farming power. That's literally how merchants made most of their money - getting their hands on all the gold before random person "x" so they could take advantage of gold sales and volume discounts.
*PS -- There actually IS a limit to inflation in this game - it's when the gold price is high enough that the appeal of Packs/promos becomes unattractive enough that it equals the coin sink rate. We've had that for the past two years at the ~3.5 to 4m cap, until crazy spend promos and goldfoil drops started heavily favoring the
packs/promos side of the equation.
Post edited by dregenfox on0 -
The issue would not be just making money. It's the opportunity cost of what you are giving up. 70m DoD's means PWI makes a little more than ~17 gold per DoD. This is ONLY if the person actually charges gold for it to sell on AH, instead of using his existing reserves, which means the actual money made will be much lower.
PWI currently makes at ~125 gold per DoD sold from packs, assuming a pack drop rate of .2% means a minimum of 500 packs opened to get that DoD.
Pack DoD are also guaranteed to make money because they can ONLY come from the cash shop. For PWI to even consider losing this much long term revenue, they'd have to introduce something stronger than DoD's into the packs that can't be upgraded from DoD's.
This is really something I don't want, because I'm tired of the gear treadmill. I'm sorry, but if the newbies want to save 3 million coin on gold prices to get the next newest fashion that comes out, they're going to have to find another way.
Do you even read what has been said? lol
I consistently spoke of temporary sink, it would only be short lived NPC. It wouldnt permanently drop the prices even if in reality the prices would be lower than they would be w/o such influx of shards at one point.
But there is one very important thing bout opportunity cost you are completely ignoring, PWI is losing ppl. Nobody is gonna play forever and the amount of ppl finishing shards this way vs going as they been doing is quite drastically different. The decision is basically taking some guaranteed money now, bit less in long term vs risking playerbase dying before you beat the first option.
As for your numbers, the conclusions are laughable. I assume you are lumping DoT and DoD together to get to 0,2% drop rate. Do you really think that something, which drops once every 500 packs, is going to affect the desirability of packs if that items value is cut by 30%? That drop isnt even exactly noticeable if you do estimated value for each pack but sure, its gonna kill PWEs profits in long term, rofl.
This kind of idiocy and complete lack of thinking/understanding is exactly the reason why I have very little motivation to continue this discussion.
Lol, are you kidding me? Nerfing the drop value of packs/keys by ~7% is massive in terms of profitability and forces people to take even bigger losses when taking the risk of opening packs. Did you actually do the math or did you just think ".2% is a small number so it must be insignificant"?
Even for keys, putting in Warsong/AEU chests caused a massive spike in sales despite their ridiculously low drop rate. Despite what you may think, most people who open massive quantities of packs DO care about the drop rates. It's why Sochi packs are so much more popular than any other pack even though the difference in drop rate between packs for SoT/CoM can be as low as .002%.
The other thing is that DoD/DoT sales only makes up a tiny % of the entire economy. To think that a small discount on gems would somehow cause a 50%+ drop in gold price (which is what is needed to actually lower gold's value enough to matter in terms of AH cap) is delusional when you consider the fact that at some point, people don't need to upgrade to DoD anymore while inflation will always be causing the gold price to rise.
At this point you're just so enamored with being "right" that you're willing to make yourself look stupid to try to support a point without even doing the math. Just stop, man.
30m drop at 0,2% droprate is 60k drop in estimated value, which is being generous on the drop. In reality correct number for the drop would be 25m if and when DoTs were 90m and DoDs 100m. There is literally snowballs chance in hell Sochis would have 860k estimated value as it was ~1m prior to LC prices hitting the roof. I dont even need to do math for that statement, thats how obvious it is. And this is specifically for Sochis because other packs on the 100/25g bracket least have drastically worse odds of pulling these specific shards. I am genuinely curios as to what kind of "math" lands 7% drop in value.
I am likely in top3 when it comes to packs opened on Et, I am pretty sure I have a little bit more expertise on what massive pack openers actually open and why/when. I also would like to know where you got on the tangent bout odds not mattering as I nowhere claimed anything remotely like that.
50%? Where on earth you come up with these numbers? Unless Da gold is 8m ea? The lowest gold could go with foils in keys is bout 3,5m, even 3m and ppl will be printing coin with keys on sale. So w/o removing them from keys, realistic target for gold would be 3,5m ea. So I guess I should of asked, Da gold at 7m ea?
Lets say we have 10 ppl going +2 and 5 ppl +3 with shard NPC, which is honestly lowballing it hard. That would remove ~75b from economy. Chances are the amount of ppl actually sharding will be drastically higher, never forgetting merchants buying some and flipping them for higher after NPC is gone. Would it be enough to get gold to 3,5m ea? Impossible to say but most likely there would be more steps needed to be taken for that to happen. But it would likely achieve unlocking of the AH, least till PWE does something else to rain havoc on economy.
Why would I bother doing math, when I can just throw numbers around and still be more accurate than you "doing math"? Thats literally how awful your numbers were in your latest post.0 -
The issue would not be just making money. It's the opportunity cost of what you are giving up. 70m DoD's means PWI makes a little more than ~17 gold per DoD. This is ONLY if the person actually charges gold for it to sell on AH, instead of using his existing reserves, which means the actual money made will be much lower.
PWI currently makes at ~125 gold per DoD sold from packs, assuming a pack drop rate of .2% means a minimum of 500 packs opened to get that DoD.
Pack DoD are also guaranteed to make money because they can ONLY come from the cash shop. For PWI to even consider losing this much long term revenue, they'd have to introduce something stronger than DoD's into the packs that can't be upgraded from DoD's.
This is really something I don't want, because I'm tired of the gear treadmill. I'm sorry, but if the newbies want to save 3 million coin on gold prices to get the next newest fashion that comes out, they're going to have to find another way.
Do you even read what has been said? lol
I consistently spoke of temporary sink, it would only be short lived NPC. It wouldnt permanently drop the prices even if in reality the prices would be lower than they would be w/o such influx of shards at one point.
But there is one very important thing bout opportunity cost you are completely ignoring, PWI is losing ppl. Nobody is gonna play forever and the amount of ppl finishing shards this way vs going as they been doing is quite drastically different. The decision is basically taking some guaranteed money now, bit less in long term vs risking playerbase dying before you beat the first option.
As for your numbers, the conclusions are laughable. I assume you are lumping DoT and DoD together to get to 0,2% drop rate. Do you really think that something, which drops once every 500 packs, is going to affect the desirability of packs if that items value is cut by 30%? That drop isnt even exactly noticeable if you do estimated value for each pack but sure, its gonna kill PWEs profits in long term, rofl.
This kind of idiocy and complete lack of thinking/understanding is exactly the reason why I have very little motivation to continue this discussion.
Lol, are you kidding me? Nerfing the drop value of packs/keys by ~7% is massive in terms of profitability and forces people to take even bigger losses when taking the risk of opening packs. Did you actually do the math or did you just think ".2% is a small number so it must be insignificant"?
Even for keys, putting in Warsong/AEU chests caused a massive spike in sales despite their ridiculously low drop rate. Despite what you may think, most people who open massive quantities of packs DO care about the drop rates. It's why Sochi packs are so much more popular than any other pack even though the difference in drop rate between packs for SoT/CoM can be as low as .002%.
The other thing is that DoD/DoT sales only makes up a tiny % of the entire economy. To think that a small discount on gems would somehow cause a 50%+ drop in gold price (which is what is needed to actually lower gold's value enough to matter in terms of AH cap) is delusional when you consider the fact that at some point, people don't need to upgrade to DoD anymore while inflation will always be causing the gold price to rise.
At this point you're just so enamored with being "right" that you're willing to make yourself look stupid to try to support a point without even doing the math. Just stop, man.
30m drop at 0,2% droprate is 60k drop in estimated value, which is being generous on the drop. In reality correct number for the drop would be 25m if and when DoTs were 90m and DoDs 100m. There is literally snowballs chance in hell Sochis would have 860k estimated value as it was ~1m prior to LC prices hitting the roof. I dont even need to do math for that statement, thats how obvious it is. And this is specifically for Sochis because other packs on the 100/25g bracket least have drastically worse odds of pulling these specific shards. I am genuinely curios as to what kind of "math" lands 7% drop in value.
I am likely in top3 when it comes to packs opened on Et, I am pretty sure I have a little bit more expertise on what massive pack openers actually open and why/when. I also would like to know where you got on the tangent bout odds not mattering as I nowhere claimed anything remotely like that.
50%? Where on earth you come up with these numbers? Unless Da gold is 8m ea? The lowest gold could go with foils in keys is bout 3,5m, even 3m and ppl will be printing coin with keys on sale. So w/o removing them from keys, realistic target for gold would be 3,5m ea. So I guess I should of asked, Da gold at 7m ea?
Lets say we have 10 ppl going +2 and 5 ppl +3 with shard NPC, which is honestly lowballing it hard. That would remove ~75b from economy. Chances are the amount of ppl actually sharding will be drastically higher, never forgetting merchants buying some and flipping them for higher after NPC is gone. Would it be enough to get gold to 3,5m ea? Impossible to say but most likely there would be more steps needed to be taken for that to happen. But it would likely achieve unlocking of the AH, least till PWE does something else to rain havoc on economy.
Why would I bother doing math, when I can just throw numbers around and still be more accurate than you "doing math"? Thats literally how awful your numbers were in your latest post.
Like...wtf. Why are you using the prices before AH cap became an real issue instead of current prices? With the current value of gold at 5m, a sochi pack costs 1.25m. Lets assume the average value returned when opening sochi is ~90%, which means 1.125m value. The drop rate of DoD/DoT is .2%.
DoD+DoT average value is currently ~110m. That means you would lose ~40m per shard, which lowers the sochi's value to 1.045m. That's a drop in value of 7.11%, but will range anywhere from 5-7.5% depending on server prices.
Again, think about what you are actually solving here. You are giving multiple players +3 stones and full JoSD, for a limited time period, to *maybe* temporarily decrease the gold price to something like 3m for the duration of the promotion, so that random newbie that only does BH can save 1m on the 3 pieces of gold he decides to buy.
You know what I would do as a merchant? I wouldn't even bother with the JOSD. I'd just dump all my coin into the AH - with gold at 3m I'd be able to buy up at least 2000 gold instantly, and laugh my way to the bank during the next war avatar or soulgem pack spend promo. Of course, I wouldn't be opposed to trading 9 of my keys during the next 18g sale for one of the 100 DoD's you're desperately trying to get rid of
.
That's assuming gold even gets that low, because the 300m'ish coin sink of homestead barely touched gold prices, even though every single near-endgame player has one at max right now. And that was when gold was still at 4m.
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Like...wtf. Why are you using the prices before AH cap became an real issue instead of current prices? With the current value of gold at 5m, a sochi pack costs 1.25m. Lets assume the average value returned when opening sochi is ~90%, which means 1.125m value. The drop rate of DoD/DoT is .2%.
DoD+DoT average value is currently ~110m. That means you would lose ~40m per shard, which lowers the sochi's value to 1.045m. That's a drop in value of 7.11%, but will range anywhere from 5-7.5% depending on server prices.
Again, think about what you are actually solving here. You are giving multiple players +3 stones and full JoSD, for a limited time period, to *maybe* temporarily decrease the gold price to something like 3m for the duration of the promotion, so that random newbie that only does BH can save 1m on the 3 pieces of gold he decides to buy.
You know what I would do as a merchant? I wouldn't even bother with the JOSD. I'd just dump all my coin into the AH - with gold at 3m I'd be able to buy up at least 2000 gold instantly, and laugh my way to the bank during the next war avatar or soulgem pack spend promo. Of course, I wouldn't be opposed to trading 9 of my keys during the next 18g sale for one of the 100 DoD's you're desperately trying to get rid of .
That's assuming gold even gets that low, because the 300m'ish coin sink of homestead barely touched gold prices, even though every single near-endgame player has one at max right now. And that was when gold was still at 4m.
Thats one way of doing math I suppose. Its completely idiotic way of course as it provides no actually useful information but its a way nonethless.
If you were wanting to do estimated value for a pack, you would have to calculate average gain from each pack according to odds/market value, not just pull number like 90% out of a hat. For Et its currently ~1,2m per sochi, which is the pack you been talking bout consistently. But least you provided numbers, which are pretty drastically higher than what I been providing, server differences prolly. Well, hard to say any more actually, the shards have gone up like 10-15m on Et the past 2 days to 100mish currently, which makes zero sense with an upcoming Sochi sale everybody should be aware of. Oh well, dumped my hard earned DoTs to somebody for 15%+ profit as w/o insanely cheaply priced chest sales I can just buy them back lower than what I paid for them in the first place.
But if we were to assume the current 30m difference, which is shards peaking on Et, we`d still be at 5% estimated value loss. Would I as pack opener prefer not losing the 5%? Yes but it would hardly stop me or vast majority from doing so in the future either. This depends heavily on estimated values and my mood, when I am bored I do take risks and I doubt I`m the only one - you are greatly exaggerating the impact pretty small hit on estimated value would have. And this is specifically for Sochis, which are like twice better at giving DoDs/DoTs than vast majority of the packs. Meaning other packs really dont take this hard of a hit.
I cant obviously speak for Da but on Et gold dropped from cap to like 3,3m iirc after HS update till they started pack spamming the servers and more ppl were going for NP promos, driving the prices up due competition. But no, you are drastically overestimating the amount of ppl who actually have maxed HS. Well, I can again only speak for Et but I would honestly put the number out of endgamish players who have it maxed to ~50%. The amount of who actually got the 7,6k prestige? Fraction of that. There was literally 2 ppl going for G17 weps when they came out, this number has drastically increased as time has passed but vast majority of who are investing to homes are only going to get their S3 for purge but thats Et for you.
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Like...wtf. Why are you using the prices before AH cap became an real issue instead of current prices? With the current value of gold at 5m, a sochi pack costs 1.25m. Lets assume the average value returned when opening sochi is ~90%, which means 1.125m value. The drop rate of DoD/DoT is .2%.
DoD+DoT average value is currently ~110m. That means you would lose ~40m per shard, which lowers the sochi's value to 1.045m. That's a drop in value of 7.11%, but will range anywhere from 5-7.5% depending on server prices.
Again, think about what you are actually solving here. You are giving multiple players +3 stones and full JoSD, for a limited time period, to *maybe* temporarily decrease the gold price to something like 3m for the duration of the promotion, so that random newbie that only does BH can save 1m on the 3 pieces of gold he decides to buy.
You know what I would do as a merchant? I wouldn't even bother with the JOSD. I'd just dump all my coin into the AH - with gold at 3m I'd be able to buy up at least 2000 gold instantly, and laugh my way to the bank during the next war avatar or soulgem pack spend promo. Of course, I wouldn't be opposed to trading 9 of my keys during the next 18g sale for one of the 100 DoD's you're desperately trying to get rid of .
That's assuming gold even gets that low, because the 300m'ish coin sink of homestead barely touched gold prices, even though every single near-endgame player has one at max right now. And that was when gold was still at 4m.
Thats one way of doing math I suppose. Its completely idiotic way of course as it provides no actually useful information but its a way nonethless.
If you were wanting to do estimated value for a pack, you would have to calculate average gain from each pack according to odds/market value, not just pull number like 90% out of a hat. For Et its currently ~1,2m per sochi, which is the pack you been talking bout consistently. But least you provided numbers, which are pretty drastically higher than what I been providing, server differences prolly. Well, hard to say any more actually, the shards have gone up like 10-15m on Et the past 2 days to 100mish currently, which makes zero sense with an upcoming Sochi sale everybody should be aware of. Oh well, dumped my hard earned DoTs to somebody for 15%+ profit as w/o insanely cheaply priced chest sales I can just buy them back lower than what I paid for them in the first place.
But if we were to assume the current 30m difference, which is shards peaking on Et, we`d still be at 5% estimated value loss. Would I as pack opener prefer not losing the 5%? Yes but it would hardly stop me or vast majority from doing so in the future either. This depends heavily on estimated values and my mood, when I am bored I do take risks and I doubt I`m the only one - you are greatly exaggerating the impact pretty small hit on estimated value would have. And this is specifically for Sochis, which are like twice better at giving DoDs/DoTs than vast majority of the packs. Meaning other packs really dont take this hard of a hit.
I cant obviously speak for Da but on Et gold dropped from cap to like 3,3m iirc after HS update till they started pack spamming the servers and more ppl were going for NP promos, driving the prices up due competition. But no, you are drastically overestimating the amount of ppl who actually have maxed HS. Well, I can again only speak for Et but I would honestly put the number out of endgamish players who have it maxed to ~50%. The amount of who actually got the 7,6k prestige? Fraction of that. There was literally 2 ppl going for G17 weps when they came out, this number has drastically increased as time has passed but vast majority of who are investing to homes are only going to get their S3 for purge but thats Et for you.
Um, no. The prices of pack items rise and fall on average depending on the best pack that the majority of people are opening at the time. It's possible for the average drop value of the best pack to be higher than it's purchase price for the first few drops after it's released, but it will ALWAYS settle down to slightly lower than the actual selling value of the pack. This is basic economics.
If you gain more money than you lose by opening packs, people will keep opening packs, selling those items for a profit, buying more packs, and opening them until the price of those pack items falls to the point where you start losing money. I've done this math for pretty much every new pack that's been released and it's always accurate. I'm actually being pretty generous with Sochi packs as most packs have far worse % profit than 90%.
The price of the items will rise or fall based on the real market value of gold, but this doesn't matter because packs are always a % of the gold price. For sochis, it's 25%. If sochis remain the best packs but aren't sold for a really long time, the packs rise because of scarcity, but the price of the items dropped from sochi packs will also rise along with it. This is why SoT price fell to an all time low of ~1b the first time Sochi's were brought back on sale around a month ago (where they stated this was the "last time" it would ever be on sale for .25 - so much for that).
Of course, prices don't always coincide with scarcity immediately because the pwi economy is not in perfect competition - it takes time for the price to settle on it's true market value. This is called inefficiency, and merchants in this game are the ones that profit from that inefficiency.
This happened with keys also, btw. People thought they were making a fortune from those keys and started buying gold + keys for higher and higher prices in a rush to get goldfoil. It got to the point where a 699k key 2 days ago was selling at 1.8m 2 days later, making it almost impossible for those who didn't already buy gold before to make a real profit from the keys.
Just going by the fact that the key price jumped by 1m coins, it's reasonable to estimate that the drop rate of the 400m goldfoils was some where between 1/150 to 1/250, so probably around every 400 keys (200 attempts), since we have to account for the lower goldfoil drops as well. I'd say for every 400m goldfoil, you will probably get around 3-4 of the lower value goldfoils since you lost like 120-150m in materials just to make the 400m ones. But the average value of the goldfoils over a large number of attempts will add up to around 1m/key.
A lot of failed merchants in this game fail because they don't understand whether they are truly making a profit or not - they don't have an accurate sense of losses and profits or prices. They just blow 500 gold on packs, end up with a few items and maybe 1b in coins, and think "cool, I'm rich". People confuse getting lucky with making a profit, when it's really just short-term variance. "Hey look, I opened 50 packs today and got 2 DoD and made a huge profit! This means these packs are super good and profitable!"Post edited by dregenfox on0 -
Um, no. The prices of pack items rise and fall on average depending on the best pack that the majority of people are opening at the time. It's possible for the average drop value of the best pack to be higher than it's purchase price for the first few drops after it's released, but it will ALWAYS settle down to slightly lower than the actual selling value of the pack. This is basic economics.
If you gain more money than you lose by opening packs, people will keep opening packs, selling those items for a profit, buying more packs, and opening them until the price of those pack items falls to the point where you start losing money. I've done this math for pretty much every new pack that's been released and it's always accurate. I'm actually being pretty generous with Sochi packs as most packs have far worse % profit than 90%.
The price of the items will rise or fall based on the real market value of gold, but this doesn't matter because packs are always a % of the gold price. For sochis, it's 25%. If sochis remain the best packs but aren't sold for a really long time, the packs rise because of scarcity, but the price of the items dropped from sochi packs will also rise along with it. This is why SoT price fell to an all time low of ~1b the first time Sochi's were brought back on sale around a month ago (where they stated this was the "last time" it would ever be on sale for .25 - so much for that).
Of course, prices don't always coincide with scarcity immediately because the pwi economy is not in perfect competition - it takes time for the price to settle on it's true market value. This is called inefficiency, and merchants in this game are the ones that profit from that inefficiency.
This happened with keys also, btw. People thought they were making a fortune from those keys and started buying gold + keys for higher and higher prices in a rush to get goldfoil. It got to the point where a 699k key 2 days ago was selling at 1.8m 2 days later, making it almost impossible for those who didn't already buy gold before to make a real profit from the keys.
Just going by the fact that the key price jumped by 1m coins, it's reasonable to estimate that the drop rate of the 400m goldfoils was some where between 1/150 to 1/250, so probably around every 400 keys (200 attempts), since we have to account for the lower goldfoil drops as well. I'd say for every 400m goldfoil, you will probably get around 3-4 of the lower value goldfoils since you lost like 120-150m in materials just to make the 400m ones. But the average value of the goldfoils over a large number of attempts will add up to around 1m/key.
A lot of failed merchants in this game fail because they don't understand whether they are truly making a profit or not - they don't have an accurate sense of losses and profits or prices. They just blow 500 gold on packs, end up with a few items and maybe 1b in coins, and think "cool, I'm rich". People confuse getting lucky with making a profit, when it's really just short-term variance. "Hey look, I opened 50 packs today and got 2 DoD and made a huge profit! This means these packs are super good and profitable!"
I was thinking of actually responding seriously but this discussion has damaged my faith in humanity. I cant believe somebody would continue using same faulty "math" after been told how and why its faulty but here we are. As a result its clearly pointless to continue this discussion with you as you are, despite accusing me, clearly invested in being right, which makes for pretty poor discussion as its moving nowhere.0 -
Um, no. The prices of pack items rise and fall on average depending on the best pack that the majority of people are opening at the time. It's possible for the average drop value of the best pack to be higher than it's purchase price for the first few drops after it's released, but it will ALWAYS settle down to slightly lower than the actual selling value of the pack. This is basic economics.
If you gain more money than you lose by opening packs, people will keep opening packs, selling those items for a profit, buying more packs, and opening them until the price of those pack items falls to the point where you start losing money. I've done this math for pretty much every new pack that's been released and it's always accurate. I'm actually being pretty generous with Sochi packs as most packs have far worse % profit than 90%.
The price of the items will rise or fall based on the real market value of gold, but this doesn't matter because packs are always a % of the gold price. For sochis, it's 25%. If sochis remain the best packs but aren't sold for a really long time, the packs rise because of scarcity, but the price of the items dropped from sochi packs will also rise along with it. This is why SoT price fell to an all time low of ~1b the first time Sochi's were brought back on sale around a month ago (where they stated this was the "last time" it would ever be on sale for .25 - so much for that).
Of course, prices don't always coincide with scarcity immediately because the pwi economy is not in perfect competition - it takes time for the price to settle on it's true market value. This is called inefficiency, and merchants in this game are the ones that profit from that inefficiency.
This happened with keys also, btw. People thought they were making a fortune from those keys and started buying gold + keys for higher and higher prices in a rush to get goldfoil. It got to the point where a 699k key 2 days ago was selling at 1.8m 2 days later, making it almost impossible for those who didn't already buy gold before to make a real profit from the keys.
Just going by the fact that the key price jumped by 1m coins, it's reasonable to estimate that the drop rate of the 400m goldfoils was some where between 1/150 to 1/250, so probably around every 400 keys (200 attempts), since we have to account for the lower goldfoil drops as well. I'd say for every 400m goldfoil, you will probably get around 3-4 of the lower value goldfoils since you lost like 120-150m in materials just to make the 400m ones. But the average value of the goldfoils over a large number of attempts will add up to around 1m/key.
A lot of failed merchants in this game fail because they don't understand whether they are truly making a profit or not - they don't have an accurate sense of losses and profits or prices. They just blow 500 gold on packs, end up with a few items and maybe 1b in coins, and think "cool, I'm rich". People confuse getting lucky with making a profit, when it's really just short-term variance. "Hey look, I opened 50 packs today and got 2 DoD and made a huge profit! This means these packs are super good and profitable!"
I was thinking of actually responding seriously but this discussion has damaged my faith in humanity. I cant believe somebody would continue using same faulty "math" after been told how and why its faulty but here we are. As a result its clearly pointless to continue this discussion with you as you are, despite accusing me, clearly invested in being right, which makes for pretty poor discussion as its moving nowhere.
You've offered no evidence, no attempt at math or proofs, or even anything based on theory. To me it feels like you're just a faker who who a little too much to say with no substance to back it up (and perhaps a bit too much ego).
I'm sorry but just based on this discussion you clearly do not understand how to determine whether packs are profitable or not and carried yourself mainly through Cash shopping. If you don't know how to determine the average drop value of a pack or even what the return rate for sochi packs are then you really don't have a place to speak.
I was really giving you the benefit of the doubt and using numbers in your favor but you clearly don't have a grasp on basic economics.
Go ahead and calculate the value of each drop from the current packs on sale and compare it to the fair market value of gold if you want to see it for yourself. Or is this little task simply too hard for you?
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You've offered no evidence, no attempt at math or proofs, or even anything based on theory. To me it feels like you're just a faker who who a little too much to say with no substance to back it up (and perhaps a bit too much ego).
I'm sorry but just based on this discussion you clearly do not understand how to determine whether packs are profitable or not and carried yourself mainly through Cash shopping. If you don't know how to determine the average drop value of a pack or even what the return rate for sochi packs are then you really don't have a place to speak.
I was really giving you the benefit of the doubt and using numbers in your favor but you clearly don't have a grasp on basic economics.
Go ahead and calculate the value of each drop from the current packs on sale and compare it to the fair market value of gold if you want to see it for yourself. Or is this little task simply too hard for you?
I told you your attempt at determining packs value was laughable at best because it literally had zero to do with return rates of packs but assuming the market will magically push return rate to 90% of packs market value. Opening packs you care bout the estimated value of the pack, which really isnt determined by what market prices the packs itself as the amount of ppl who do this kind of math are a tiny minority. It really cant be this hard to comprehend, can it?
The math you provided regarding estimated value was faulty, it provided zero useful information because it was working under faulty premise. You need to, like I told you, go trough odds and market values to get estimated value for your pack, which you did not do. Instead you are here trying to argue for some magical 90% return rate, rofl.
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You've offered no evidence, no attempt at math or proofs, or even anything based on theory. To me it feels like you're just a faker who who a little too much to say with no substance to back it up (and perhaps a bit too much ego).
I'm sorry but just based on this discussion you clearly do not understand how to determine whether packs are profitable or not and carried yourself mainly through Cash shopping. If you don't know how to determine the average drop value of a pack or even what the return rate for sochi packs are then you really don't have a place to speak.
I was really giving you the benefit of the doubt and using numbers in your favor but you clearly don't have a grasp on basic economics.
Go ahead and calculate the value of each drop from the current packs on sale and compare it to the fair market value of gold if you want to see it for yourself. Or is this little task simply too hard for you?
I told you your attempt at determining packs value was laughable at best because it literally had zero to do with return rates of packs but assuming the market will magically push return rate to 90% of packs market value. Opening packs you care bout the estimated value of the pack, which really isnt determined by what market prices the packs itself as the amount of ppl who do this kind of math are a tiny minority. It really cant be this hard to comprehend, can it?
The math you provided regarding estimated value was faulty, it provided zero useful information because it was working under faulty premise. You need to, like I told you, go trough odds and market values to get estimated value for your pack, which you did not do. Instead you are here trying to argue for some magical 90% return rate, rofl.
Wow. I'll tell you one more time. Go to pw database and add up the market value of the drop rates of every single pack currently on sale, and compare it to the fair market gold value. If you don't understand why every pack's total drops ends up losing value after you open it you don't understand basic economics. I've done this for pretty much every pack that's been released.
Most of the older packs average drop value can be as low as 50% of the fair market gold value.
Do. The. Math.0 -
Wow. I'll tell you one more time. Go to pw database and add up the market value of the drop rates of every single pack currently on sale, and compare it to the fair market gold value. If you don't understand why every pack's total drops ends up losing value after you open it you don't understand basic economics. I've done this for pretty much every pack that's been released.
Most of the older packs average drop value can be as low as 50% of the fair market gold value.
Do. The. Math.
And how is that remotely relevant again? Of course they are, the packs on sale currently are utter garbage.
My point has for the past 4(?) posts been how you cant just magically decide a return rate of the pack is 90% of market value when that has nothing to do with the estimated value of the pack.0 -
Wow. I'll tell you one more time. Go to pw database and add up the market value of the drop rates of every single pack currently on sale, and compare it to the fair market gold value. If you don't understand why every pack's total drops ends up losing value after you open it you don't understand basic economics. I've done this for pretty much every pack that's been released.
Most of the older packs average drop value can be as low as 50% of the fair market gold value.
Do. The. Math.
And how is that remotely relevant again? Of course they are, the packs on sale currently are utter garbage.
My point has for the past 4(?) posts been how you cant just magically decide a return rate of the pack is 90% of market value when that has nothing to do with the estimated value of the pack.
Do you seriously not understand how to construct a basic proof or analysis? Why would you ask for a proof when you don't even know how they work?Lets assume the average value returned when opening sochi is ~90%, which means 1.125m value. The drop rate of DoD/DoT is .2%
We can't assume a straight value for the return because it's value is a variable, and could range anywhere from 99% to as low as 1% depending on market conditions.
There's also the fact that Sochi packs aren't even on sale (hello?), so we can't determine what the exact return rate will settle on (though we can definitely predict it fairly accurately).
As such, I assumed one of the BEST case scenarios for sochi packs and for your argument, which is that the rate of return nearly matches the value of the pack. In that best case scenario, the pack will lose ~7% of it's value. The lower the rate of return on the pack, the higher the relative value of the DoD, because it's drop value stays the same.
Your only argument against this is that "since the drop rate is only 1 in 500 it must be insignificant", which is flat out wrong.
Assume the value of x is 100000 while the value of y is 1.
.002% * x > .998 * y
^ There's the proof for that if you need it.0 -
Wow. I'll tell you one more time. Go to pw database and add up the market value of the drop rates of every single pack currently on sale, and compare it to the fair market gold value. If you don't understand why every pack's total drops ends up losing value after you open it you don't understand basic economics. I've done this for pretty much every pack that's been released.
Most of the older packs average drop value can be as low as 50% of the fair market gold value.
Do. The. Math.
And how is that remotely relevant again? Of course they are, the packs on sale currently are utter garbage.
My point has for the past 4(?) posts been how you cant just magically decide a return rate of the pack is 90% of market value when that has nothing to do with the estimated value of the pack.
Do you seriously not understand how to construct a basic proof or analysis? Why would you ask for a proof when you don't even know how they work?Lets assume the average value returned when opening sochi is ~90%, which means 1.125m value. The drop rate of DoD/DoT is .2%
We can't assume a straight value for the return because it's value is a variable, and could range anywhere from 99% to as low as 1% depending on market conditions.
There's also the fact that Sochi packs aren't even on sale (hello?), so we can't determine what the exact return rate will settle on (though we can definitely predict it fairly accurately).
As such, I assumed one of the BEST case scenarios for sochi packs and for your argument, which is that the rate of return nearly matches the value of the pack. In that best case scenario, the pack will lose ~7% of it's value. The lower the rate of return on the pack, the higher the relative value of the DoD, because it's drop value stays the same.
Your only argument against this is that "since the drop rate is only 1 in 500 it must be insignificant", which is flat out wrong.
Assume the value of x is 100000 while the value of y is 1.
.002% * x > .998 * y
^ There's the proof for that if you need it.
Man you are adorable. You fail again and again at determining the estimated value of a pack, your 90% magic number is idiotic assumption. I told you, the current sochi estimated value is 1,2m, its not 1,125m. This 1,2m is on a server, which most likely has maybe even drastically lower pack item prices. So in reality, for your argument you would have to be using higher number.
You are the one who brought sochi packs up in this discussion, they do be on sale in bout 5h, whats the problem with them now? We can actually look odds and compare them to market prices even if the packs are not sale so we can actually determine the estimated value of the pack. Its actually really simple too.
At the time when I said it was insignificant, the drop on estimated pack value was <5%, which I personally consider pretty insignificant on Et. This on a pack, which has double the droprate of those items compared to basically any other pack.0 -
jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »
How about you look at the gold price trend for the past 8 years. It's nothing but an incline. Again gold is priced at what people are willing to pay for it and guess what? Those on the server with the most coin are going to compete for it. That's why it always goes up and not back down.
Think about it.
You are just plain wrong in here.
I'm not wrong. I mentioned gold prices increased for the past 8 years. I always knew it was because of the amount of coin on the servers. I have always advocated for a coin sink but the issue is that it has to be targeted toward those few who are hording 100s of billions in coins and not to everyone. A coin sink targeted at everyone is going to squeeze the poorer players the most and will not accomplish much
Having a gold sink doesn't change the fact that there's still the same supply of gold being spread towards too many players. It doesn't matter what the gold price is - some players will miss out because there's simply not enough gold to meet the needs of every character.
Gold is a cash shop item so why the hell is there SUPPOSED to be enough on the server to meet the needs of every character. Your notion that there is supposed to be enough gold on the server to meet everyone's needs is nuts.
There is plenty of gold on the server if one is willing to pay enough for it. Otherwise there is an endless amount of gold people can charge.
Exactly. I think you're finally starting to understand basic economics. It doesn't matter whether the price of gold is 400k or 4m. There is the exact same supply for a given number of players. BH gives you the same amount of coins whether you are rich or poor. It doesn't discriminate.
*** I think you have totally lost it here. This doesn't even make sense. Try to comprehend the difference between in game coin that is free and a cash shopped item.
By the pure mechanics of both systems there cannot be the 'exact same supply for a given number of players' because one is purchased by players and the other is farmed from the game. WTH??
The player who has more resources available will always win out over someone with less resources. That means in this game, CS'ers will always get first dibs on everything, and the F2P will get the leftover scrap, only after the needs of the CS'er has been satisfied.
*** That's my point and that's the way it is supposed to be. PWI is a for profit business and those who pay real money should always come first over those who contribute nothing to keep the lights on at the office, the employees paid, and the servers online.
Even if gold were to drop down to 400k, if a newbie puts up 100 gold for 400k, a CS'er would simply put up 100 gold at 401k, because he has the same exact income as the newbie except with the added resources of real world money, as well as superior farming power. That's literally how merchants made most of their money - getting their hands on all the gold before random person "x" so they could take advantage of gold sales and volume discounts.
*** So what?
*PS -- There actually IS a limit to inflation in this game - it's when the gold price is high enough that the appeal of Packs/promos becomes unattractive enough that it equals the coin sink rate. We've had that for the past two years at the ~3.5 to 4m cap, until crazy spend promos and goldfoil drops started heavily favoring the
packs/promos side of the equation.
Don't lecture me on basic economics when you can't even grasp the concept of inflation and the hoarding of 100s of billions of coins by players. And yes, as I mentioned, that cap is the artificial baseline for gold pricing. Remove it and that baseline will do nothing but go up. Do you honestly think it will do anything different considering the historical trend?
Oh..and P.S. - In case you haven't noticed PWI/PWE has been nerfing the hell out of nearly every way to farm coin in game or have you not noticed? Ever think about why they are making things so difficult for the F2P people? It's because it's in the company's best interest to make gold expensive (valued against coin).
Perhaps it's because the company is a for profit entity and they want to convert these F2P freeloaders into paying cash shoppers. After all, that's what businesses do. They make money.0 -
jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »jamesburr36 wrote: »
How about you look at the gold price trend for the past 8 years. It's nothing but an incline. Again gold is priced at what people are willing to pay for it and guess what? Those on the server with the most coin are going to compete for it. That's why it always goes up and not back down.
Think about it.
You are just plain wrong in here.
I'm not wrong. I mentioned gold prices increased for the past 8 years. I always knew it was because of the amount of coin on the servers. I have always advocated for a coin sink but the issue is that it has to be targeted toward those few who are hording 100s of billions in coins and not to everyone. A coin sink targeted at everyone is going to squeeze the poorer players the most and will not accomplish much
Having a gold sink doesn't change the fact that there's still the same supply of gold being spread towards too many players. It doesn't matter what the gold price is - some players will miss out because there's simply not enough gold to meet the needs of every character.
Gold is a cash shop item so why the hell is there SUPPOSED to be enough on the server to meet the needs of every character. Your notion that there is supposed to be enough gold on the server to meet everyone's needs is nuts.
There is plenty of gold on the server if one is willing to pay enough for it. Otherwise there is an endless amount of gold people can charge.
Exactly. I think you're finally starting to understand basic economics. It doesn't matter whether the price of gold is 400k or 4m. There is the exact same supply for a given number of players. BH gives you the same amount of coins whether you are rich or poor. It doesn't discriminate.
*** I think you have totally lost it here. This doesn't even make sense. Try to comprehend the difference between in game coin that is free and a cash shopped item.
By the pure mechanics of both systems there cannot be the 'exact same supply for a given number of players' because one is purchased by players and the other is farmed from the game. WTH??
The player who has more resources available will always win out over someone with less resources. That means in this game, CS'ers will always get first dibs on everything, and the F2P will get the leftover scrap, only after the needs of the CS'er has been satisfied.
*** That's my point and that's the way it is supposed to be. PWI is a for profit business and those who pay real money should always come first over those who contribute nothing to keep the lights on at the office, the employees paid, and the servers online.
Even if gold were to drop down to 400k, if a newbie puts up 100 gold for 400k, a CS'er would simply put up 100 gold at 401k, because he has the same exact income as the newbie except with the added resources of real world money, as well as superior farming power. That's literally how merchants made most of their money - getting their hands on all the gold before random person "x" so they could take advantage of gold sales and volume discounts.
*** So what?
*PS -- There actually IS a limit to inflation in this game - it's when the gold price is high enough that the appeal of Packs/promos becomes unattractive enough that it equals the coin sink rate. We've had that for the past two years at the ~3.5 to 4m cap, until crazy spend promos and goldfoil drops started heavily favoring the
packs/promos side of the equation.
Don't lecture me on basic economics when you can't even grasp the concept of inflation and the hoarding of 100s of billions of coins by players. And yes, as I mentioned, that cap is the artificial baseline for gold pricing. Remove it and that baseline will do nothing but go up. Do you honestly think it will do anything different considering the historical trend?
Umm...hate to break it to you, but gold has been selling via WC at over 4m for quite a while now, and the price of most items rose in response to that price. Just because the AH shows 6000 requests to buy gold at 4 million doesn't mean the actual market value of gold is 4 million.
Sorry to tell you the bad news. We can keep the cap at 4 million if looking at it makes you feel better, there are still a new newbies/people desperate for coin willing to sell at that price (which would actually still happen even without the AH). It doesn't matter to me personally because I know how to take advantage of the cap but I prefer a functional gold economy to keep the game healthy. *shrug*
Also, I'd like you to find a quote where I denied that people were hoarding billions of coins or that inflation didn't exist. You can't, because you're just BS'ing to try to somehow look good.
Just remember to take your head out of the sand every once in awhile, so you can breathe. Don't want you suffocating under there.0 -
Ok, this has just turned into a bickering match so we'll close it down.0
https://youtu.be/RkkWkigYd3k
This discussion has been closed.
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