Massive Refine Failure

Bearleeable - Lost City

Anyone other then me and some friends having issues with refining lately? Ever since the update its VERY hard to even get +3 let alone 3 or more. Out of 8 pc's of nightshade gear I've only been able to get +3 4x and +4 2x out of 1200 mirages!!b:angry
I've NEVER had this kind of bad luck refining.
Tried all the usual places where I've always gotten +3 fairly easily and +5 w/o much trouble.
now I might spend 100 mirage ( on weap ) just to get +2.
doesn't seem to matter what gear, what class refining, what location its all crappy b:cry

SunDownXIII - Dreamweaver

Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »

Anyone other then me and some friends having issues with refining lately? Ever since the update its VERY hard to even get +3 let alone 3 or more. Out of 8 pc's of nightshade gear I've only been able to get +3 4x and +4 2x out of 1200 mirages!!b:angry
I've NEVER had this kind of bad luck refining.
Tried all the usual places where I've always gotten +3 fairly easily and +5 w/o much trouble.
now I might spend 100 mirage ( on weap ) just to get +2.
doesn't seem to matter what gear, what class refining, what location its all crappy b:cry

I thought I was the only one. 500 mirages for a +3 >.<

Azura - Lost City

You are in Lost City, so you and your friends can just pm me to sell refine service, as long as the gears are unbound. I don't refine nv-3 weapons.

Mosz - Heavens Tear

i was refining just today,seemed completely normal

PeachyKisses - Archosaur

This is also an issue lately on Archosaur server. Over 500 mirages and +1 with fail fail fal fail refine fail refine fail fail refine..... It's really stupid now. And I don't believe all the people saying go to a faction owned land yada yada. It NEVER used to be that hard to refine. My guess at this is PWI reduced the acrual in game refine rate so they can boost their actual in game boutique sales of refines helpers and dragon orbs. And we have'nt seen a Demon/Sage card code in weeks now which means most who had some stored up will have blown through them therefore leaving them also to go to the botique for more refining aids. This is just my take on it mind you. b:angry

Korahko - Dreamweaver

The refining % is fine, I refined multiple pieces of gear to +5 and even yolo'd and got a weapon to +9 with a tisha hahahaha so lucky

The unfortunate thing is that there is luck involved, this means you can be lucky or in the worser case, unlucky.

Only reason it seems worse than it is, is because people only post about their bad luck, not when refining goes well

CapnK - Sanctuary

I got +8 on NW cube neck in 600 mirages. I was happy, usually takes me around 2000 to get +8.

Poopinpanto - Heavens Tear

I only use mirages to plus stank gear or to get a start on gear butusually just go ahead and spend coin to + with orbs.But even that's been cheap lately due to being able to get +6 and +7 orbs from RA primal.

Demodude - Dreamweaver

I had the same problem. Usually I can get to +4/5 in 200-300 mirages. Took me 500 mirages to get +4 on my barbs g15 axes (just to hold em over till I upgrade em)

SerenityCNB - Dreamweaver

Sounds like my cleric's entire PWI career. Marred by failure after failure in refining. I've even had to tisha gear to get +3...and that was before the update. My weapon is proof of my failure in refining.... G16 weapon...orbed ffom +0 to +10.

If it has been changed, then it won't affect me much at all. I never had much luck refining to begin with.

Keisari - Raging Tide

It's not changed at all. At times Kitty still has some luck, most of the time the same ol' horribad luck.

Evryn - Morai

That's called "Karma" kitty...

Anyway, did some refining on new toons the other day. +3/+4 mainly, for alts. Didn't have any problems... 20-50 mirages per piece I estimate, plus some tienkangs.

Keisari - Raging Tide

Evryn - Morai wrote: »

That's called "Karma" kitty...

But...but...leaving 100 cards in Cube always grants Kitty an easy run.b:sad

YeIIowFox - Harshlands

Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »

Anyone other then me and some friends having issues with refining lately? Ever since the update its VERY hard to even get +3 let alone 3 or more. Out of 8 pc's of nightshade gear I've only been able to get +3 4x and +4 2x out of 1200 mirages!!b:angry
I've NEVER had this kind of bad luck refining.
Tried all the usual places where I've always gotten +3 fairly easily and +5 w/o much trouble.
now I might spend 100 mirage ( on weap ) just to get +2.
doesn't seem to matter what gear, what class refining, what location its all crappy b:cry

I spent 300 mirages yesterday to get a NW cast Cloud Stir ring to +5, seems normal for me b:surrender

Aubree - Dreamweaver

With 511 mirages I got +6 twice but it is not sitting at +3 because I ran out. Used no refining aides. This was not g16 wep.

Mahidevran - Archosaur

I failed really hard yesterday <.<

I didn't even manage to get +3, only +2 and then fail again >.>

Annalyse - Heavens Tear

Had a day before the expansion where I spent almost 1k mirages trying to get a +6 on armor, but after that got +7 on a G16 weapon with like 300. Yesterday it took about 550 for me to get +6 on some sleeves.

It certainly can be frustrating, but it's just random. Nothing has changed.

XANTH_ - Heavens Tear

I was having issues with it last night. 500 mirages on my wraithgate cloak and it only got to +2. 6 times in a row I couldn't even get +1. Something has changed. Steadily throughout the years it has changed a little at a time.

Deceptistar - Sanctuary

i thought that was normal :P shows my refining luck since the beginning

Peccable - Raging Tide

Keisari - Raging Tide wrote: »

It's not changed at all. At times Kitty still has some luck, most of the time the same ol' horribad luck.

as anything in this thread: [citation needed]
i know as much as you know, as much as anyone in this thread knows, as much as any gm knows: absolutely nothing. all we can do is to speculate, since we are not getting changelogs; we have to make changelogs ourselves. personally i got 7x failed in row at +0 (supposed to be 50% chance) several times, it might mean that they lowered refineluck (as well as they allegedly changed the random pigment stats), but it might also mean nothing. unless we get the pre-patch and post-patch stats, we won't know for sure. tho my gut clearly says it has been nerfed. b:chuckle

Rosie_Caster - Harshlands

HA thats hilarious

try 20k mirages for +1 and never getting +1
thats my luck

Toliman - Raging Tide

Rosie_Caster - Harshlands wrote: »

HA thats hilarious

try 20k mirages for +1 and never getting +1
thats my luck

How you feel after it ?

Mirages . . . mirages around ?

20k mouse clicks ...

Edit:
K is an abbreviation for a thousand.

opkossy

XANTH_ - Heavens Tear wrote: »

I was having issues with it last night. 500 mirages on my wraithgate cloak and it only got to +2. 6 times in a row I couldn't even get +1. Something has changed. Steadily throughout the years it has changed a little at a time.

Peccable - Raging Tide wrote: »

as anything in this thread: [citation needed]
i know as much as you know, as much as anyone in this thread knows, as much as any gm knows: absolutely nothing. all we can do is to speculate, since we are not getting changelogs; we have to make changelogs ourselves. personally i got 7x failed in row at +0 (supposed to be 50% chance) several times, it might mean that they lowered refineluck (as well as they allegedly changed the random pigment stats), but it might also mean nothing. unless we get the pre-patch and post-patch stats, we won't know for sure. tho my gut clearly says it has been nerfed. b:chuckle

For the last time (oh who am I kidding? People are always gonna whine about nerfs when they run into a string of bad luck) it has not been changed. Has never been changed.

We had someone pull the data straight out in comparison of the ancient values and what was current at the time and there was zero change. We've had MULTIPLE people do that MULTIPLE times when folks were crying nerf.

There. Is. No. Nerf.


**** luck happens. It's part of the system. Just a few hours ago I had two pieces of the exact same armor. Same sockets, stat bonuses, etc on both. One of them I got to friggin +9 with less than 300 mirages and about 20ish refine aids. The other one I had to settle for +5 after burning through ~800 mirages and accompanying refine aids. It's all down to luck.

Salari - Raging Tide

Even though pulling info from the files may not show a change, there could always be changes in the game itself (algorithms) that can lower or raise the percentages. Other than that I always have bad luck . I usually try to get to +4 then orb the rest of the way.

Peccable - Raging Tide

OPKossy wrote: »

it has not been changed. Has never been changed.

[citation needed]

opkossy

Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »

Even though pulling info from the files may not show a change, there could always be changes in the game itself (algorithms) that can lower or raise the percentages. Other than that I always have bad luck . I usually try to get to +4 then orb the rest of the way.

Considering the server and client files have to match in order to even get into the game, that's fairly unlikely. Makes for nice conspiracy fuel though. b:laugh

Peccable - Raging Tide wrote: »

[citation needed]

Google it/search the forums on your own for it. It's there and I don't have to do your work for you just because I'm a mod. Just because you can't be bothered to look for the posts showcasing the lack of changes doesn't mean they aren't there.

In fact, how about you show a citation that the rates were changed yourself? You have the current client data. There are ways and places you can google to get older versions of the client. And you can use google to learn how to extract and view the data yourself. It's easy for you to sit back and demand proof that it hasn't changed when common sense would state it's bad luck same as EVERY OTHER TIME people whined about the changes. Fact is that, like I said in the post you so delightfully seem to have ignored, proof has been provided that there's been no change. Multiple times. By multiple people at that.

Balls in your court this time. If you wanna demand evidence how about you do your homework first and then provide some evidence for your own claims?








Edit: Man that came off as super aggressive upon a reread. Oh well, not changing it just to find a way to make it sound less mean.

HideYoHubby - Archosaur

Its just luck, I had better than usual luck on most my venos N3 pieces to +6, Then came the sleeves and let me tell you, 1k mirages, 100+ event gold to +5 them. Then again I have horrendous refining luck usually so meh.

Bearleeable - Lost City

OPKossy wrote: »

For the last time (oh who am I kidding? People are always gonna whine about nerfs when they run into a string of bad luck) it has not been changed. Has never been changed.

We had someone pull the data straight out in comparison of the ancient values and what was current at the time and there was zero change. We've had MULTIPLE people do that MULTIPLE times when folks were crying nerf.

There. Is. No. Nerf.


**** luck happens. It's part of the system. Just a few hours ago I had two pieces of the exact same armor. Same sockets, stat bonuses, etc on both. One of them I got to friggin +9 with less than 300 mirages and about 20ish refine aids. The other one I had to settle for +5 after burning through ~800 mirages and accompanying refine aids. It's all down to luck.

MY many years of experience has to disagree with you. MOST of the time shortly after massive server update the refining gets skewed. Presumably due to re-instantiation of the random seed.
after all its extremely difficult to get a truely random randomizer and since there are pre-stated percentile chances its already skewed. Perhaps this is what I and others are experiecing.....

Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »

Even though pulling info from the files may not show a change, there could always be changes in the game itself (algorithms) that can lower or raise the percentages. Other than that I always have bad luck . I usually try to get to +4 then orb the rest of the way.

Exactly has always been my experience... +3 mirage ( fairly easy most of the time ) +4 blue egg, +5 green.
yes, somedays its HORRENDOUSLY bad, but +3 is normally fairly obtainable even then.

OPKossy wrote: »

Considering the server and client files have to match in order to even get into the game, that's fairly unlikely. Makes for nice conspiracy fuel though. b:laugh

Google it/search the forums on your own for it. It's there and I don't have to do your work for you just because I'm a mod. Just because you can't be bothered to look for the posts showcasing the lack of changes doesn't mean they aren't there.

In fact, how about you show a citation that the rates were changed yourself? You have the current client data. There are ways and places you can google to get older versions of the client. And you can use google to learn how to extract and view the data yourself. It's easy for you to sit back and demand proof that it hasn't changed when common sense would state it's bad luck same as EVERY OTHER TIME people whined about the changes. Fact is that, like I said in the post you so delightfully seem to have ignored, proof has been provided that there's been no change. Multiple times. By multiple people at that.

Balls in your court this time. If you wanna demand evidence how about you do your homework first and then provide some evidence for your own claims?








Edit: Man that came off as super aggressive upon a reread. Oh well, not changing it just to find a way to make it sound less mean.

Perhaps you can provide detailed tools, instructions on how this is done? does the randomizer reseed? if so when, how, all this matters when your talking about randomness, this is exactly why casino's can control/predict what their payout percentage will be.
With the extremely widespread, unreleased, degradation in coin sources it wouldn't surprise me for this to be denigrated as well.

opkossy

Bearleeable - Lost City wrote: »

MY many years of experience has to disagree with you. MOST of the time shortly after massive server update the refining gets skewed. Presumably due to re-instantiation of the random seed.
after all its extremely difficult to get a truely random randomizer and since there are pre-stated percentile chances its already skewed. Perhaps this is what I and others are experiecing.....

Your many years of experience, eh?

I've been playing since before PWI was a thing so I have equal if not more years of experience. I also do a lot of refining both for myself and others. So strings of bad luck have a lesser impact on me because I'm used to dealing with averages both in terms of how much it takes to refine an item and how many items I manage to refine with certain amounts.

Can you say you have anything close to that same level of experience? Odds are that unless you do refine services you cannot... and odds are that literally anyone that sells refine services as a means of their income will agree with basically everything I've said about the refine rates.

Exactly has always been my experience... +3 mirage ( fairly easy most of the time ) +4 blue egg, +5 green.

That's pretty decent for if you're aiming for low refines but if you want higher you're gonna have to learn to adjust when you use tisha/tienkangs. Same applies to changing how you apply them based on what you refine. On a relevant side note, 5 mirages per refine on stuff like G16 weapons is such BS. Makes something as small as 50 attempts burn through way more mirages than it needs to. ._.

Stuff

Check your PMs.

Salari - Raging Tide

OPKossy wrote: »

Considering the server and client files have to match in order to even get into the game, that's fairly unlikely. Makes for nice conspiracy fuel though. b:laugh

No you really missed the point as any algorithm coded in the game has nothing to do with the client/server files or percentages. A simple check on any number of values in the game server wide could alter what the outcome would be. A simple inventory system can do this. An example would be say packs for example. If (number_of_vit_stones_from_packs_lasthour => somenumber) then ignore(roll); return_token. Another example is getting stats on armor that does not exist in the server/client files. Without access to the source code no one really knows.

freygin

About the chances for refining from pwpedia using mirage only :

Refine  Mirage Only 	 
+1 	50% 	 
+2 	30%  
+3 	30% 	 
+4 	30% 	 
+5 	30%  

to get +5 from zero the chance would be 50% * 30% * 30% * 30% *30% = 0.00405 , the average needed mirages then would be 100000/405 = 246.9~247 mirages.

Is that right ?

I tried a couple times using Asterelle's refining simulator the range of mirages used varied from 20 to 990, a million tries probably would get an average close to 247 mirages.

Also a chance like 50% should always be 50% no matter how it's randomized.