Math Gurus help

Fae_Harpy - Archosaur

I have been trying to get sage BoA for my archer by using the pages of fate. Now according to the database there is a 20% chance of getting 1 of 5 different books. So far I have made 9 tomes. Out of the 9 I made, 8 have been deadly shot (Sage archers on our server can personally thank me for wrecking the value of that book by flooding the market with it, your welcome foxy alone ). While I am rather upset at not being able to get my book, what I'm more curious about is what are the odds of getting the same book 8 out of 9 times, if any math gurus want to give a stab at it, let me know. I'm wondering if my luck is that bad maybe I need to watch for lightning when I walk out my door. f:shock

Mooooooooo - Lost City

0.00009216

Jaabg - Sanctuary

POF skills strategy for jaabg - get enough pages for 5~7 tries. Sell the pages, buy the book at the outrageous price.

I got demon hf on my 7th try. I could have sold the pages and bought it for 100m at that time.

Fae_Harpy - Archosaur

Jaabg - Sanctuary wrote: »

POF skills strategy for jaabg - get enough pages for 5~7 tries. Sell the pages, buy the book at the outrageous price.

I got demon hf on my 7th try. I could have sold the pages and bought it for 100m at that time.

I have never seen anyone selling sage BoA, demon I have, but never sage. Either we don't have many sage archers or maybe I just wasn't on when they sold it. I also think due to the fact that the only book archers really want from PoF is BoA most probably quit making the tome after they get it. On our server PoF sell for around 500k each, you would have a hard time selling any of the other books from that set for 15 mil.

Mooooooooo - Lost City wrote: »

0.00009216

f:stare
Wow I don't know whether to laugh or cry at that.

Chance of getting struck by lightning in a given year 0.002%

Chance of getting a crown of madness out of a pack 0.0003%

Going by the number you provided I either need to avoid going outside or head to Vegas f:laugh

CapnK - Sanctuary

I got just under 1%. Mooo's number seems way low.

Cawcawwww - Archosaur

Fae_Harpy - Archosaur wrote: »

I have never seen anyone selling sage BoA, demon I have, but never sage. Either we don't have many sage archers or maybe I just wasn't on when they sold it. I also think due to the fact that the only book archers really want from PoF is BoA most probably quit making the tome after they get it. On our server PoF sell for around 500k each, you would have a hard time selling any of the other books from that set for 15 mil.



f:stare
Wow I don't know whether to laugh or cry at that.

Chance of getting struck by lightning in a given year 0.002%

Chance of getting a crown of madness out of a pack 0.0003%

Going by the number you provided I either need to avoid going outside or head to Vegas f:laugh

I have never seen anyone sell sage boa on arch either and I'm on a lot. PoF prices are like 300k atm and dropping fast with the new fsp instance. Hang in there a few more weeks and it should be reasonably priced.

Mooooooooo - Lost City

CapnK - Sanctuary wrote: »

I got just under 1%. Mooo's number seems way low.

well yours is way off then.

Arawin - Raging Tide

Mooooooooo - Lost City wrote: »

0.00009216

Where's that # come from?

Maybe I'm applying it wrong, but isn't it

.2^8 * .8 = 0.000002048

Perhaps my math skills are rusty. Ara tired... ._.

Walpurga - Dreamweaver

I got Demon BoA for 30mil off some guy in WC; I felt kinda ripped off but looking at this, meh I guess

5 tries for BoA according to DW pricing

Adroit - Lost City

Arawin - Raging Tide wrote: »

Where's that # come from?

Maybe I'm applying it wrong, but isn't it

.2^8 * .8 = 0.000002048

Perhaps my math skills are rusty. Ara tired... ._.

Well, the question was getting the same book 8/9 times, not the same book 8/8 times. I'm not really sure how to solve this.. but I'm thinking you'd probably multiply what you have so far by 9 (9 choose 8 = 9.. so there are 9 combinations where you have 8 identical books and 1 other) and there may be another step after that. Interestingly, multiplying your answer by 45 would give you cheze's answer.. so I'm guessing he multiplied the 9 I mentioned along with 5 from somewhere to arrive where he did. Not really sure where the 5 came from, but knowing cheze.. he's probably right with anything math related.

Mooooooooo - Lost City

Adroit - Lost City wrote: »

Well, the question was getting the same book 8/9 times, not the same book 8/8 times. I'm not really sure how to solve this.. but I'm thinking you'd probably multiply what you have so far by 9 (9 choose 8 = 9.. so there are 9 combinations where you have 8 identical books and 1 other) and there may be another step after that. Interestingly, multiplying your answer by 45 would give you cheze's answer.. so I'm guessing he multiplied the 9 I mentioned along with 5 from somewhere to arrive where he did. Not really sure where the 5 came from, but knowing cheze.. he's probably right with anything math related.

the 5 because it's 8 out of 9 of the same book. not 8 out of 9 of a specific book. there are 5 books that he can get 8 out of 9 of.

Asterelle - Sanctuary

Arawin - Raging Tide wrote: »

Where's that # come from?

Maybe I'm applying it wrong, but isn't it

.2^8 * .8 = 0.000002048

Perhaps my math skills are rusty. Ara tired... ._.

This corresponds to picking a particular book the first 8 times and getting one of the 4 other books on the 9th time.

cheze's answer assumes any of the 5 books are allowed to be the matching one and the non-matching book could occur in any of the 9 attempts (this makes it a factor of 45 larger than yours). Interestingly this does now include the chance of getting the same book 9 times in a row which could be considered a subset of getting the same book 8 times out of 9 depending on how particular you want to be about the wording.

Arawin - Raging Tide

Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »

This corresponds to picking a particular book the first 8 times and getting one of the 4 other books on the 9th time.

cheze's answer assumes any of the 5 books are allowed to be the matching one and the non-matching book could occur in any of the 9 attempts (this makes it a factor of 45 larger than yours). Interestingly this does now include the chance of getting the same book 9 times in a row which could be considered a subset of getting the same book 8 times out of 9 depending on how particular you want to be about the wording.

Ohh, I get it. I was thinking he wanted the odds of what occurred (getting 8 deadly shot books out of 9.) The question asked (and answered by moooo) was what are the odds of getting 8 of the same book. Which if course would be much higher. Makes sense. I feel smarter haha. b:laugh

Mooooooooo - Lost City

Arawin - Raging Tide wrote: »

Ohh, I get it. I was thinking he wanted the odds of what occurred (getting 8 deadly shot books out of 9.) The question asked (and answered by moooo) was what are the odds of getting 8 of the same book. Which if course would be much higher. Makes sense. I feel smarter haha. b:laugh

I answered what he asked "getting same book 8 out of 9"