+12 Star Orb

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Lolegi - Sanctuary
Lolegi - Sanctuary Posts: 25 Arc User
edited March 2013 in Cash Shop Huddle
I recently was able to obtain some gold and was wondering should i save it for something else or try my luck in Dragon Fire Packs, so my question to you is have you ever obtained a +12 orb from opening Dragon Fire Packs? and if so how many did you open? ty in advance = )
Post edited by Lolegi - Sanctuary on

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  • y4kuzi
    y4kuzi Posts: 234 Arc User
    edited March 2013
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    The chance of getting a Dragon Orb Flame is 0.01%.
  • PsychicTuna - Harshlands
    PsychicTuna - Harshlands Posts: 128 Arc User
    edited March 2013
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    I got 2 +12's the last sale opened around 3k or so when i got the second one. And i'd save the gold for the next Dragon Fire pack sale.
    *Explodes into Tuna* ._.

    Mains:

    Doom_Panda- 102 R9 partial 3rd cast Sage Barb 29k HP.
    Dawnx - 100 Demon Cleric.
    Dawnx_- 101 Sage Cleric.
    DawnMyst- 94 Demon Mystic.
  • Deadalus - Harshlands
    Deadalus - Harshlands Posts: 546 Arc User
    edited March 2013
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    The chance getting anything but 1* Orbs is at 8%.

    2* is 5.75%
    3* is 1.24%
    4* is 0.7%
    5* is 0.3%
    12* is 0.01%

    So, when you really want one, you should buy around 10.000 Packs for getting an mathematical 100% chance to get one (very simple mathematics).
    But as every other pack, it will occur either way before this number (like 2000 or 3000), after the first pack, the 100. pack or the 78.734 pack.

    Either way, i suggest you to NOT struggle around with these packs, you get dissapointed in any way, if you are not intendet to buy atleast 500~1000 of them and even there, i miss to see the point, because the best thing you can get out of these with a... reasonable rate (0.3%) is a 5* Orb which is 9mil on HL.

    Better dont even hope for a 12* one b:cute
  • HrunsPanda - Archosaur
    HrunsPanda - Archosaur Posts: 1,136 Arc User
    edited March 2013
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    Deadalus - Harshlands wrote: »

    So, when you really want one, you should buy around 10.000 Packs for getting an mathematical 100% chance to get one (very simple mathematics).

    ???? very very simple......

    Buying those packs is gambling. 1 in 10.000 chance. Some estimated examples.


    Buy 1000 packs, have 9% chance to get 1 or more +12 orbs.
    Buy 5000 packs, have 35% chance to get 1 or more +12 orbs. (out of those 35% chance, like 12% chance to have more than 1)
    Buy 10.000 packs, have 60% chance to get 1 or more +12 orbs. (out of that 60% chance, half the times you actually get 2 or more)
    Buy 50.000 packs, have 97% chance to get 1 or more +12 orbs. (most of those 97%, you get more than 1, average 5)
    Buy 100.000 packs, have 99,5% chance to get 1 or more +12 orbs. (but an average of 10 orbs, and a tiny chance of actually getting 20+)

    these are just estimated numbers to give you an idea, but im sure they are close enough. I hope you understand that "if you are not intendet to buy atleast 500~1000 of them" is very far from the truth. If you want to minimize chances of being dissapointed, you need to start thinking 100.000 packs. If getting 5 instead of the average expected 10 orbs out of 100.000 packs is going to get you very dissapointed, you need to start thinking millions of packs. Thats where you can start expecting to get reasonably close to 1 orb per 10.000 packs.

    Lets just say, i have been making a living as a profesional gamler for 6 years, and i wont buy a pack during this lifetime :)
  • Deadalus - Harshlands
    Deadalus - Harshlands Posts: 546 Arc User
    edited March 2013
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    You sure got me there, buddy.

    I bought packs twice, once for 44g for 100 packs and once in a very extreme sale, where you could but 100 for 22g, i bought 400 there and even with just only Tokens, i made profit selling them, so it was... okay.

    i never buy them again, except they are very cheap like the 100 for 22g sale 2 years back.
    But even then i only got like 5 items not Tokens (2 where Perfect Token), 2 Ancient Emblem and one Citrine Gem. Thats it.

    I would stay away from them and not start buying millions. I think 500-1000 is a good number before the human infront of the pc goes nuts opening them.
  • HrunsPanda - Archosaur
    HrunsPanda - Archosaur Posts: 1,136 Arc User
    edited March 2013
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    yes in a 50% off sale, packs are probably a decent investment since you can basically substract the token value (150k) from the price. So if the cion price normally is 500k, you bring the price for your gamble from 350k to 100k. That is such a significant reduction that it may well become reasonable there to buy packs :)

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