quick probability Q on item add-ons

FaceRolI - Sanctuary

Hey simple question,

1) With NW supplying 'cheap' r8r mats what are the odds of getting - chan x2 (or greater) on r8r?

assuming database is accurate
r8r (wizzy) pants have a 4.24% chance of getting - chan

so to calculate odds of getting exactly 2x - chan i did, .0424 x .0424 x .9376 x 3 x 100% =~ .506%

added that to prob of 3x chan and got ~ .513% of getting atleast 2x chan on r8r wizzy pants

I'm pretty sure this is the right way of doing it, but I wanted to double check ty. b:thanks

2) bonus Q. ofc I could recast my pants 200+ times and never get 2x chan or I might get it on my next try. I'm think it's called a confidence test/interval or something (or maybe the idea of what I'm thinking about doesnt exist), but if anyone would like to calc/explain how to calc the minimum # rerolls it would take to get -2x chan+ with a 95% uhmmm... chance? That would be much appreciated b:thanks

HappysHAIL - Harshlands

Math is slightly off. Should be 0.9576.

FaceRolI - Sanctuary

HappysHAIL - Harshlands wrote: »

Math is slightly off. Should be 0.9576.

oops ty, other then being unable to subtract, its right method?

Mooooooooo - Lost City

don't really need confidence interval or statistics to calculate that. it's just simple probability 0.995 ^ x = 0.05. so about 600 tries.

FaceRolI - Sanctuary

Mooooooooo - Lost City wrote: »

don't really need confidence interval or statistics to calculate that. it's just simple probability 0.995 ^ x = 0.05. so about 600 tries.

Thanks! I was reading wikihow and confidence test didn't make any sense for wat I was looking for, and **** thats alot of rerolls x.x

questions answered, thank you forums! mod can close ty

TPstar - Sanctuary

Go to sleep you crazy professor.