packs system

Options
Phillio - Archosaur
Phillio - Archosaur Posts: 108 Arc User
edited April 2013 in General Discussion
Now I don't get a lot of packs but I do allow myself to get some and open them once a week.
I've noticed the first three times I did I got stuff (perfect luck about 7 times, citrine gem, mammoth etc), but after that: nothing.

I wonder if it's really just chance or if there's some other system at work. Then again, maybe I was just lucky the first couple of times. What do you think? I expect there are some that get disappointed and get more and more packs until they get something. Some guy posted he had opened 30k+ packs that way b:sad

I guess I'll try one more time next week and if I end up with just tokens again I'll go back to more grinding, less packs :)
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

Time is the fire in which we burn. b:angry
Post edited by Phillio - Archosaur on

Comments

  • augustfinknottle
    augustfinknottle Posts: 276 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    It's just random, and you were lucky first. I open 1 pack a day, and sometimes I get pretty neat stuff. Sometimes I get those lame tokens.

    For whatever reason, I think there's something like a "pre-given" lucky thing for the day, because openning things in a streak is quite common, so the "randomness" is not the same everyday. It's like there's a "lucky number" for that day or something. But that's me supposing things, I don't know if that's real. But yeah, you'll get more "lucky days" still.
  • Jaabg - Sanctuary
    Jaabg - Sanctuary Posts: 2,256 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Enjoy this friendly post b:pleased
  • Cotillion - Dreamweaver
    Cotillion - Dreamweaver Posts: 671 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Any systems or theories people come up with are just that - people seeing superstitious patterns where there aren't any.
    It's luck of the draw. You click the pack then there's a percentage chance of what item you will get. End of story.
  • KissAndKill - Dreamweaver
    KissAndKill - Dreamweaver Posts: 750 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Some packs have better chances for different items as well. For instance, the Aqueous pack isn't really worth it unless you want what's higher in acquire rate (Such as Platinum Charms, Perfect Stones, Diamond of Tiger/Dragon.)

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/27148

    Some of the newer packs also have a lower drop rate for epic items such as the Scroll of Tome:

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/27240 (0.0015%)

    While the old Anniversary Pack has it better:

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/20191 (0.01%)

    Just look at the chances for what you want specifically, and get the pack that you want based on that. other packs for you to compare:

    Our current Sunshine Pack: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/22053 (Old one for comparison)

    Our current Wildlife Pack: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/24941 (Old one for comparison)

    Dragon's Fire Pack: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/22173

    Mirage Celestone Pack: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/19773

    Golden Egg: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/9135

    Perfect Chest: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/10118

    Battle Pet Pack: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/10122

    Hot Colors Pack: http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/9281
    There once a time when I cared about getting to the top quickly as possible to help others. Now, I take it slow, and don't worry about having nothing to do. There's always something to do in an MMORPG, especially if you are high level. PK'ing is for those who desire to inflate their egos. True friendship comes from helping one-another, rather than to start rivalries.

    It takes 315300 Mysterious Chips to make one warsoul weapon, if you have a 100% success rate.
  • Xx_BeLLa_xX - Harshlands
    Xx_BeLLa_xX - Harshlands Posts: 7,231 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    It's all about luck, some people will open at some time or some place cause they feel more lucky there, but it's random some people are really lucky others are not.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    b:dirty "I **** rainbows and love everyone"-Longknife b:cute
  • MyMate - Dreamweaver
    MyMate - Dreamweaver Posts: 558 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    KissAndKill - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/27240 (0.0015%)
    Need to open 66666 times for 99.999% Chance.

    While the old Anniversary Pack has it better:

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/20191 (0.01%)
    Need to open 10000 times for 100% chance.]

    This is kinda misleading.. There is no 100% chance, just the average number of packs you would need to open to get the item to you want. But you may open 10x that amount and still not get a SoT. If I'm not mistaken all packs opened on the server count to this number, so every pack someone open counts.
    "In the beginning, it was claimed that all in Perfect World were equal. But now it seems that some are more equal than others..." ~ Lost City Recluse
  • KissAndKill - Dreamweaver
    KissAndKill - Dreamweaver Posts: 750 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    MyMate - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    This is kinda misleading.. There is no 100% chance, just the average number of packs you would need to open to get the item to you want. But you may open 10x that amount and still not get a SoT. If I'm not mistaken all packs opened on the server count to this number, so every pack someone open counts.

    Well, thanks for telling me :D
    There once a time when I cared about getting to the top quickly as possible to help others. Now, I take it slow, and don't worry about having nothing to do. There's always something to do in an MMORPG, especially if you are high level. PK'ing is for those who desire to inflate their egos. True friendship comes from helping one-another, rather than to start rivalries.

    It takes 315300 Mysterious Chips to make one warsoul weapon, if you have a 100% success rate.
  • Cotillion - Dreamweaver
    Cotillion - Dreamweaver Posts: 671 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    People opening packs at certain times or in certain places equates to people who take hoards of lucky 'charms' to Bingo or play certain 'lucky numbers' on lotto tickets or having a lucky kiosk at a Casino or countless other 'lucky methods' to winning at any form of gambling. They mean nothing and one string of good luck automatically connects it as being a 'true method to winning on packs' in the users mind.
  • Decus - Dreamweaver
    Decus - Dreamweaver Posts: 5,033 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    MyMate - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    This is kinda misleading.. There is no 100% chance, just the average number of packs you would need to open to get the item to you want. But you may open 10x that amount and still not get a SoT. If I'm not mistaken all packs opened on the server count to this number, so every pack someone open counts.


    Yep, it's part of the whole made up mythos of a "law of averages" that is often combined with the gambler's fallacy.

    b:chuckle
    Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
    Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    "Any skills that can be used to kill you will interrupt BB when successful." -truekossy | "...Sage archers are kind of like Mac owners. They are proud of the weirdest and most unnecessary things." -Aesthor | "We ALL know Jesus doesn't play PWI. He may have suffered a lot for humanity, but he'd NEVER punish himself this way." -Abstractive | "I approve of bananas." -SashaGray
  • Phillio - Archosaur
    Phillio - Archosaur Posts: 108 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Just going to stick to opening 10 a week then. Fingers crossed.


    thx.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    Time is the fire in which we burn. b:angry
  • Sarrafeline - Sanctuary
    Sarrafeline - Sanctuary Posts: 4,661 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Cotillion - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    People opening packs at certain times or in certain places equates to people who take hoards of lucky 'charms' to Bingo or play certain 'lucky numbers' on lotto tickets or having a lucky kiosk at a Casino or countless other 'lucky methods' to winning at any form of gambling. They mean nothing and one string of good luck automatically connects it as being a 'true method to winning on packs' in the users mind.

    Well...

    If every pack opened on the server counts towards the chance of getting stuff other than tokens, then wouldn't it make sense to not open packs when fewer other people are? Or when there isn't someone getting TOBL after TOBL?
    101 Sage Sin*/Archer
    100 Demon BM*/Barb
    96 Demon Cleric/Sage Seeker
    95 Demon Wiz/
    94 Sage Veno
    85 Psy/80 Mystic
    And a handful of other alts, all 79 and under.
    *Pre RB level
  • MyMate - Dreamweaver
    MyMate - Dreamweaver Posts: 558 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Sarrafeline - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Well...

    If every pack opened on the server counts towards the chance of getting stuff other than tokens, then wouldn't it make sense to not open packs when fewer other people are? Or when there isn't someone getting TOBL after TOBL?

    Actually.. The amount of people that open packs doesn't matter to your individual luck with packs. However, with alot of people opening packs at the same time the amount of good stuff coming out during a period of time will increase. And due to the fact that we are talking about luck (or maybe I should say chance) there are bound to be people that get alot of the good stuff while others get a few or even nothing but tokens.

    Therefore, it might be smart to wait until you see alot of red spam at the same time. Cause there is always the chance that you will be that lucky person that gets the most good stuff, but you can't say your luck will increase just cause others are opening at the same time..

    I hope that made at least a bit of sense xD
    "In the beginning, it was claimed that all in Perfect World were equal. But now it seems that some are more equal than others..." ~ Lost City Recluse
  • Decus - Dreamweaver
    Decus - Dreamweaver Posts: 5,033 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Sarrafeline - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Well...

    If every pack opened on the server counts towards the chance of getting stuff other than tokens, then wouldn't it make sense to not open packs when fewer other people are? Or when there isn't someone getting TOBL after TOBL?

    Except they don't...
    Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
    Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    "Any skills that can be used to kill you will interrupt BB when successful." -truekossy | "...Sage archers are kind of like Mac owners. They are proud of the weirdest and most unnecessary things." -Aesthor | "We ALL know Jesus doesn't play PWI. He may have suffered a lot for humanity, but he'd NEVER punish himself this way." -Abstractive | "I approve of bananas." -SashaGray
  • orangeladey
    orangeladey Posts: 130 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    I would figure that PW does random just like most any computer program does.

    A. Start with a 'seed' that is normally system time.

    B. Use seed to generate a random number.

    C. Compare random number to pre-defined ranges for reward.

    D. Repeat



    The question becomes how does PW decide when to reset the seed.

    Could be one seed for the whole game. Could be a seed per player (and further per pack type). Could be a seed per pack type. Could be a new seed anytime a pack is opened.

    So Step 'D' can either go back to Step 'A' OR Step 'B'

    And just to be clear, when I mention pack I include any random assignment that isn't a drop (though the same process should apply, only twice for if it drops, then what it drops). From Lucid chests, to Lucky pack/box/star/etc., to actual packs, Nanmuwood chests, even quests with random rewards (celestones).

    Generally computer seeded random numbers are fair at generating all numbers. Sometimes they aren't, and that is random too.
    ♪ "Once I thought the World was made for me"
    ♫ "Once I thought experience was Free"
    ♪ "Never knew you had to pay the Price"
    ♫ "Then I found you sometimes pay it Twice!"
    --The Fraggles of Fraggle Rock
  • Cotillion - Dreamweaver
    Cotillion - Dreamweaver Posts: 671 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Sarrafeline - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Well...

    If every pack opened on the server counts towards the chance of getting stuff other than tokens, then wouldn't it make sense to not open packs when fewer other people are? Or when there isn't someone getting TOBL after TOBL?
    This fits into the same gambler's logic as just another superstitious theory until someone can actually show or prove this is actually the case.
    It's a theory the server counts any of this derived from a couple peoples luck at any given time, which can't be properly replicated and it's grasping to see some kind of 'system' to win or increase your own chances when there is none. Your own individual luck is your own individual luck and that's it.

    These theories are just the new version of the old "use a pumpkinhead pill to increase fb and TT drop chances" type theories that used to be around.
  • MyMate - Dreamweaver
    MyMate - Dreamweaver Posts: 558 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    Cotillion - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    These theories are just the new version of the old "use a pumpkinhead pill to increase fb and TT drop chances" type theories that used to be around.

    I always get 5+ TT mats when I do that on my sin o.o
    "In the beginning, it was claimed that all in Perfect World were equal. But now it seems that some are more equal than others..." ~ Lost City Recluse
  • Cotillion - Dreamweaver
    Cotillion - Dreamweaver Posts: 671 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    MyMate - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    I always get 5+ TT mats when I do that on my sin o.o
    Tsk...then you're doing it wrong. Everyone knows its actually Fat-Bro pills that give the highest drop rates, c'mon man.b:victory
  • kriegerseele
    kriegerseele Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    safe your money and buy stuff from ppl who are stupid enough to buy and open them.
    how often do i read "open 500 packs = nothing then token"...

    those everyday grind questing game boring me a lot.
    had only fun the last weeks in merchanding stuff...so much ppl are gone here, we see what happend next year on this place.

    maybe all the rest here, are ppl with a bad computer unable to play games like raiderz.
    Looking for another "Fair for All" Game now...
  • KissAndKill - Dreamweaver
    KissAndKill - Dreamweaver Posts: 750 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Options
    kriegerseele wrote: »
    safe your money and buy stuff from ppl who are stupid enough to buy and open them.
    how often do i read "open 500 packs = nothing then token"...

    Then you find out in Dreamweaver that those "Stupid" people Overprice their stuff :P

    I am glad I decided to come back to DW though. /notsarcasm
    There once a time when I cared about getting to the top quickly as possible to help others. Now, I take it slow, and don't worry about having nothing to do. There's always something to do in an MMORPG, especially if you are high level. PK'ing is for those who desire to inflate their egos. True friendship comes from helping one-another, rather than to start rivalries.

    It takes 315300 Mysterious Chips to make one warsoul weapon, if you have a 100% success rate.
  • marcyus06
    marcyus06 Posts: 55 Arc User
    edited April 2013
    Options
    SweetieBot please open 1000 Ark's Parcel for me!
  • SweetieBot - Lothranis
    SweetieBot - Lothranis Posts: 18,978 Arc User
    edited April 2013
    Options
    marcyus06 wrote: »
    SweetieBot please open 1000 Ark's Parcel for me!
    You've opened 1000 Aerogear Parcel 1s!

    You've won:
    1000 Flyer Ticket
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    I only respond if you begin a line with "SweetieBot", read the link below for commands
    SweetieBot FAQ / Usage: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1566451

    Status: ONLINE
  • Decus - Dreamweaver
    Decus - Dreamweaver Posts: 5,033 Arc User
    edited April 2013
    Options
    Decus - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Yep, it's part of the whole made up mythos of a "law of averages" that is often combined with the gambler's fallacy.

    b:chuckle

    Hi me! b:bye


    Necro. I guess the bot doesn't yell at people anymore for this?
    Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
    Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    "Any skills that can be used to kill you will interrupt BB when successful." -truekossy | "...Sage archers are kind of like Mac owners. They are proud of the weirdest and most unnecessary things." -Aesthor | "We ALL know Jesus doesn't play PWI. He may have suffered a lot for humanity, but he'd NEVER punish himself this way." -Abstractive | "I approve of bananas." -SashaGray
  • ovenusarmanio
    ovenusarmanio Posts: 6,695 Community Moderator
    edited April 2013
    Options
    closed for necro

    kritty%20sig_zpsp0y7ttsb.png
    Thanks to MikoTenshi for the Avi and Kritty for the Signature.
    Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
This discussion has been closed.

Categories