value of easy rider packs on average

gyroki

I was just curious what the value of easy rider packs on average is.

I'm not sure about the values of all items on lost city server. You can post corrections if needed. When I do the math, the stuff you get every 100 packs on average is worth ~49.5m coins.
100 packs cost 44 gold = 61.600.000 coins (1.4m per gold). So you lose ~12m per 100 packs on average.

Probability * value of every item
97.025 * 225,000 = 21830625 15 Perfect Token of Luck
1.65 * 5,000,000 = 8250000 Perfect Token of Best Luck
0.5 * 2,500,000 = 1250000 Platinum Spirit Charm
0.3 * 7,500,000 = 2250000 Platinum Guardian Charm
0.05 * 20,000,000 = 1000000 Diamond of Tiger
0.05 * 50,000,000 = 2500000 Diamond of Dragon
0.03 * 35,000,000 = 1050000 Garnet Gem
0.03 * 10,000,000 = 300000 Sapphire Gem
0.03 * 28,000,000 = 840000 Citrine Gem
0.01 * 10,000,000 = 100000 Frostcovered Sign
0.01 * 28,000,000 = 280000 Lunar Glade Insignia Ornament
0.01 * 38,000,000 = 380000 Lunar Glade Insignia Weapon
0.02 * 50,000,000 = 1000000 Wing Trophy Lunar Glade
0.005 * 70,000,000 = 350000 ☆Wings of Cloudcharger
0.008 * 0 Soul Relic
0.002 * 400,000,000 = 800000 Scroll of Tome
0.01 * 50,000,000 = 500000 Soaring Token
0.005 * 60,000,000 = 300000 Rapture Chest
0.01 * 17,000,000 = 170000 Uncanny Chest
0.03 * 20,000,000 = 600000 Championship Scroll
0.005 * 70,000,000 = 350000 Warsong Marshal Badge
0.01 * 120,000,000 = 1200000 Cube of Fate Stamp
0.01 * 90,000,000 = 900000 Script of Fate
0.05 * 8,000,000 = 400000 Chronobike Key
0.03 * 40,000,000 = 1200000 Stone of the Savant
0.03 * 40,000,000 = 1200000 Primeval Stone
0.05 * 8,000,000 = 400000 Stone of the Jungle
0,01 * 15,000,000 = 150000 Nightspike Cluster Box
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_________________49.550.625

Slegtst - Dreamweaver

Its worth 15 x regular tokenprice.

Olbaze - Sanctuary

gyroki wrote: »

97.025 * 75,000 = 7276875 15 Perfect Token of Luck
0.01 * 10,000,000 = 100000 Frostcovered Sign
0.01 * 28,000,000 = 280000 Lunar Glade Insignia Ornament
0.01 * 38,000,000 = 380000 Lunar Glade Insignia Weapon
0.02 * 50,000,000 = 1000000 Wing Trophy Lunar Glade
0.01 * 50,000,000 = 500000 Soaring Token
0.005 * 60,000,000 = 300000 Rapture Chest
0.01 * 17,000,000 = 170000 Uncanny Chest
0.01 * 90,000,000 = 900000 Script of Fate

Firstly, you get 15 Tokens. If 15 Tokes was worth 75,000 coins, you'd be looking at 5,000 coins per token, which obviously isn't the case, as their minimum NPC price is at 9999 each.

As for the other stuff:
FC Sign tends to be a bit higher (12-15m?)
Ornament Insignia is more like 35m
Weapon Insignia is about 40m
The WTLG tends to be 45m, but the actual value is much less due to selling of TM Lunar
Soaring Token is definitely worth more than 50m
Rapture Chest being 60m is a bit low, I'd say 65m
Uncanny Chest at 17m is a bit too high, I'd say 15m
Script of Fate tends to go for 95-100m from what I see

Also I don't think Plat HPs go for 7.5m, more like 5-6m. And I think DoDs are more like 30-40m.

With these adjustments, the expected value of an Easy Rider Pack is 567,922 coins. Considering that they cost 619,344, it's not really that bad. Heck, since tokens are worth more like 13,000 coins right now, the actual value of an Easy Rider is more like 611,598 coins. So really, the expected losses are rather minimal, and if you do get "lucky", you come off with decent winnings. Even in the worst case scenario, you're "only" looking at a 70% loss.

But yes, about 25% of the value of an Easy Rider Pack comes from the Tokens. 15% from Best Lucks and 5% from the charms. Most of the remaining 55% comes from inflated "common" items like Diamonds of Dragon, Diamonds of Tiger, Puzzle Cube Badges, Primevals and Stones of Savant.

gyroki

Olbaze - Sanctuary wrote: »

Firstly, you get 15 Tokens. If 15 Tokes was worth 75,000 coins, you'd be looking at 5,000 coins per token, which obviously isn't the case, as their minimum NPC price is at 9999 each.

thx for fix, it was a typo. Tokens r worth 15k each on lc server atm

Olbaze - Sanctuary wrote: »

As for the other stuff: ...

I'm not sure about the Soaring Token on our server, but if i remember right I saw some for 50m. I don't see any in shops atm.
But I'm very sure about the other stuff you corrected. I don't e.g. think that anyone is buying a LGIO for 35m on lost city. It's even hard to sell them for 28m.

Platinum HP charms sell for 7.5m when merchants run out of their stocks after 50% sale.

Olbaze - Sanctuary wrote: »

Even in the worst case scenario, you're "only" looking at a 70% loss.

"Only" 70% loss b:surrender b:shockedI know ppl which always sell their tokens at shops and buy again packs - in shops - just "to make fast more profit". Well those ppl are the reason why merchanting is so profitable b:laugh

SylenThunder - Twilight Temple

Usually it just goes by token/gold price. One affects the other. A pack is a pack is a pack. For they most part, they just give tokens.

JoeDirt - Raging Tide

they are worth more today, get a seemingly unlimited supply of maiden kissed chests when you buy the 10 pack or more.

orchid102

Dont Buy Any Packs Untill They Make A Real Discount . / End Thread/