Drop Rate Algorithm is ****

MageMERC - Harshlands
MageMERC - Harshlands Posts: 1,600 Arc User
edited February 2012 in General Discussion
Just a rant. Ive seen the following sequence many times because Ive grinded a lot on my veno.

Arrive somewhere and start grinding (today I went with Sludestalkers - lvl 104 (veno is 100).

During the first 5-10mobs drop rates are regular. Now the money isnt important - but I had 30k in DQ after the first 10mobs.

For the next 15-20mobs I got coin or nothing!!!

Now, as i said, Ive seen this happen regularly on different mobs, to a point where I would say it happens almost every time. I dont believe for a second about the 'chance' aspect that some people might use as an explanation. That is wrong.

Something about the algorithm with drops includes a recognition of who is grinding/for how long and where/or on what mobs. I swear it, but I havent done any exacting graphs to work it out.

Eventually, if I can be bothered, I will watch the clock and log out for set times and see what happens. I think if you could work it out, you would maximise your drop rate greatly, by understanding some type of unknown 'reset' to the algorithm. Thats all.

Just looking at pwidatabase, its almost like the default and real drop rates kick in at different times.
Post edited by MageMERC - Harshlands on
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Comments

  • Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide Posts: 934 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    MageMERC - Harshlands wrote: »
    Just a rant. Ive seen the following sequence many times because Ive grinded a lot on my veno.

    Arrive somewhere and start grinding (today I went with Sludestalkers - lvl 104 (veno is 100).

    During the first 5-10mobs drop rates are regular. Now the money isnt important - but I had 30k in DQ after the first 10mobs.

    For the next 15-20mobs I got coin or nothing!!!

    Now, as i said, Ive seen this happen regularly on different mobs, to a point where I would say it happens almost every time. I dont believe for a second about the 'chance' aspect that some people might use as an explanation. That is wrong.

    Something about the algorithm with drops includes a recognition of who is grinding/for how long and where/or on what mobs. I swear it, but I havent done any exacting graphs to work it out.

    Eventually, if I can be bothered, I will watch the clock and log out for set times and see what happens. I think if you could work it out, you would maximise your drop rate greatly, by understanding some type of unknown 'reset' to the algorithm. Thats all.

    Just looking at pwidatabase, its almost like the default and real drop rates kick in at different times.


    Do you believe in aliens too? b:chuckle
  • John_Smith - Harshlands
    John_Smith - Harshlands Posts: 865 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide wrote: »
    Do you believe in aliens too? b:chuckle

    Not a far fetched conclusion to come to. The drop rates do seem to follow such a theory if you do enough grinding. Personally I just think it's broken however, not tracking you.
    I've quit excluding TW for my faction. But I still hang around to help out those who still enjoy the game under PWEs horrific handling and to have fun in the forums. b:cute
    #Shame about PWEs absolutely craptastic handling of the goons glitching. Remember kids, there's no punishment for breaking the rules here!#
    If you make a valid complaint, your thread will disapear. Don't post it here, post it on other sites where PW can't hide it.
  • Ikarium - Dreamweaver
    Ikarium - Dreamweaver Posts: 631 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    MageMERC - Harshlands wrote: »
    Something about the algorithm with drops includes a recognition of who is grinding/for how long and where/or on what mobs. I swear it, but I havent done any exacting graphs to work it out.
    Did you also know that if you use pumpkinhead pills when you fight bosses, it ups the chances for good drops by a great percentage.
    .
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    b:cry
  • snufalufaguss
    snufalufaguss Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide wrote: »
    Do you believe in aliens too? b:chuckle

    I do. I see them all the time standing outside Home Depot.
  • Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide Posts: 934 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    John_Smith - Harshlands wrote: »
    Not a far fetched conclusion to come to. The drop rates do seem to follow such a theory if you do enough grinding. Personally I just think it's broken however, not tracking you.

    You think so? Seems pretty far fetched to me. I don't think the drops are broken either, from all my experience grinding. That's just how probability works. I won't say either of you are wrong though, just that I believe it to be highly unlikely.
  • John_Smith - Harshlands
    John_Smith - Harshlands Posts: 865 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide wrote: »
    You think so? Seems pretty far fetched to me. I don't think the drops are broken either, from all my experience grinding. That's just how probability works. I won't say either of you are wrong though, just that I believe it to be highly unlikely.

    Grinded over 70% of 100-101 unhypered in the desert at one point. 511 exp a mob = around 92 thousand Sandedge Basilisks (They're easy kills for an assassin to autoattack on). I grind too much and since then I've done even more but with FCs and genie dumping so I cannot judge it so well. :P

    Drop rates are ballsed up, I'm certain. But that said, I do have terrible luck x)
    I've quit excluding TW for my faction. But I still hang around to help out those who still enjoy the game under PWEs horrific handling and to have fun in the forums. b:cute
    #Shame about PWEs absolutely craptastic handling of the goons glitching. Remember kids, there's no punishment for breaking the rules here!#
    If you make a valid complaint, your thread will disapear. Don't post it here, post it on other sites where PW can't hide it.
  • Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide Posts: 934 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    John_Smith - Harshlands wrote: »
    Grinded over 70% of 100-101 unhypered in the desert at one point. 511 exp a mob = around 92 thousand Sandedge Basilisks (They're easy kills for an assassin to autoattack on). I grind too much and since then I've done even more but with FCs and genie dumping so I cannot judge it so well. :P

    Drop rates are ballsed up, I'm certain. But that said, I do have terrible luck x)

    LOL. I've done about the same. Around 50% of 100-101 on those same exact mobs. Hey they are ideal for barbs too b:cool

    But to me, everything related to drop rates seems to be working just fine, though I didn't exactly keep a log of the drops from 60 thousand plus mobs b:chuckle
  • SylenThunder - Twilight Temple
    SylenThunder - Twilight Temple Posts: 7,908
    edited February 2012
    Why is it no one gets what RANDOM is?

    Each time you kill a mob you roll the die.
    Looks like you just got sucky rolls for a while, it happens.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • John_Smith - Harshlands
    John_Smith - Harshlands Posts: 865 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Bobobejumbo - Raging Tide wrote: »
    LOL. I've done about the same. Around 50% of 100-101 on those same exact mobs. Hey they are ideal for barbs too b:cool

    But to me, everything related to drop rates seems to be working just fine, though I didn't exactly keep a log of the drops from 60 thousand plus mobs b:chuckle

    b:surrender We officially have no lives.

    I really don't know for sure, I cannot log such a thing. I'd need a couple of those clicky thingies and to remember to use them lol. Or do the maths with exp and drops gained. However I'm usually too zoned out to give a damn about such things when I grind.

    It definitely seems to get worse the longer you grind tho. And seems to reset if you stop grinding for a significant amount of time (20+ minutes in town NPCing and going to make a coffee etc). Could of course be my imagination.

    ~That said they should double the droprate of DQ stuffs. I don't mean turn 2x, I mean just double it on all the mobs so it's more common. There's no way in hell it could affect the gold prices except make more of use able to get the cash to buy some of it :/
    I've quit excluding TW for my faction. But I still hang around to help out those who still enjoy the game under PWEs horrific handling and to have fun in the forums. b:cute
    #Shame about PWEs absolutely craptastic handling of the goons glitching. Remember kids, there's no punishment for breaking the rules here!#
    If you make a valid complaint, your thread will disapear. Don't post it here, post it on other sites where PW can't hide it.
  • Ikarium - Dreamweaver
    Ikarium - Dreamweaver Posts: 631 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Why is it no one gets what RANDOM is?

    Each time you kill a mob you roll the die.
    Looks like you just got sucky rolls for a while, it happens.
    Its funny when you turn it around tho. If the drops had gone the other way, not a thing would be said. Random 'goodness' is not noticed but soon as it goes bad for a bit, look out! There be theories rolling in!
  • John_Smith - Harshlands
    John_Smith - Harshlands Posts: 865 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Why is it no one gets what RANDOM is?

    Each time you kill a mob you roll the die.
    Looks like you just got sucky rolls for a while, it happens.

    A random number generator is not random.
    I've quit excluding TW for my faction. But I still hang around to help out those who still enjoy the game under PWEs horrific handling and to have fun in the forums. b:cute
    #Shame about PWEs absolutely craptastic handling of the goons glitching. Remember kids, there's no punishment for breaking the rules here!#
    If you make a valid complaint, your thread will disapear. Don't post it here, post it on other sites where PW can't hide it.
  • Jacerai - Dreamweaver
    Jacerai - Dreamweaver Posts: 943 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    John_Smith - Harshlands wrote: »
    A random number generator is not random.

    +1

    It's fun when you start thinking in terms of coding/programing. >_<
    b:cute The world may be small, but it is far from known.

    Why the rage? It's a draining emotion.

    Me: DaValentine (veno), Jaceraie (mystic), etc etc etc b:chuckle
  • MageMERC - Harshlands
    MageMERC - Harshlands Posts: 1,600 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Thank you all for not totally flaming me. I see some people somewhat agreeing with me. And the idea of 'random' still has perameters - the obvious example being the dice - you WILL average 1/6 for every number over time, irrespective of the fact you have a chance to never roll a 6 in 1000 throws.

    Something else I meant to say before but I had to rush out is this.

    Within those first mobs I was grinding (where the drops were good) I got a venison and a blue Jade. Now the combined chance of getting those 2 drops (according to pwdatabase) is about 1 in 27400ish (real drop rate). Random my butt.

    Heres my conclusion

    1 - Drop rates change from a 'high drop rate (default???)' which lasts a short period of time to a 'normal drop rate (real???)' which then lasts the rest of the time

    2 - pwdatabase percentages are wrong.

    3 - the explanation of drop rates on pwidatabase is gobble-de-g.ook (<- Aussie slang meaning 'rubbish')
  • Olbaze - Sanctuary
    Olbaze - Sanctuary Posts: 4,242 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    PWE should lower the drop rate of all items 1% every time someone posts a topic like this.

    By now, we'd be at a point where killing a mob means you drop everything that you're wearing and everything that's in your inventory.
    I am Olba. Not Ol, not Baze nor Blaze. And even less would I go by Olblaze. Please, take a second to read a person's username.
    If you see b:cute be sure to take a second, calm look at anything I said.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    A lot of people think a random distribution means an even distribution. Real randomness results in lots of clumping and dry spells. Just last week I got chips from bh1 4 times in a row. After that I got ecstasy cards 3 times in a row. There is a lot of luck involved. There's also a self selection bias since I wouldn't bother mentioning occurances of mundane luck.

    On the other side of things Ive written a Tetris game at one point with random pieces but people complained that the I block would never come and that they got nothing S Z and L blocks. I had to write extra code that guaranteed an even distribution of blocks (but random in the order they come in).
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
    Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
    Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html
  • gyroki
    gyroki Posts: 450 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Grinding in world is a bad way of making money anyway. Drop rate for high lvl mobs sucks. When i would grind for DQ items, id do it in unwined Abba or SoT - drop rates from elite mobs r higher. Ive done it once at 2x drop and got DQ items for ~600k (+ **** gear/weapons ~same value). For me its still not worth to do, i can make more coins by doing HH 2-3 or 3-X squad mode.


    But i also recognized that the randomizer of pw is messed up.

    E.g. i got 3 sleeves with -0.05 int attrib at one boss kill last month. Same happened to me
    with -6 channeling rings. And normally i dont get some for months. Most ppl dont
    recognize it cz they dont solo BH and dont get all drops.

    E.g. i manufacture sometimes 2-3 1star-oht sleeves within ~20 sleeves - and then i
    dont get some for next view months. Same is true with (non-wanted) 3*oht stuff, or
    int-attrib on sleeves u produce. I sometimes dont get any 3* or int-sleeves (when i
    produce 50+ in a row), and sometimes 20-30% of the gear i produce is 3*.


    And its not only me, other ppl recognized it too. When u get something rare (4 sockets on HH90 gear and so on), its likely that u get it more than 1x - when u do it directly in a row.
  • lordhanzo
    lordhanzo Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    ...and then the words about how the time in-game (on ur upper-right, near minimap) affect your drop starts spreading..
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    I'm on Heavens Tear!
  • DreamDrops - Dreamweaver
    DreamDrops - Dreamweaver Posts: 95 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Arrive fresh to grind on mobs, drop rate will appear higher than on respawns of same area mobs, more times the respawns killed the lower the coin drops & items.

    Move to close area start again = higher drop rates, until respawns killed x amount of times.

    Also find that the odd few mobs that drop multiple items, will after a few respawns in the same spot, drop a further multi amount of items.

    Seems to be some sort of pattern going on, also if check kept on what skills used to vanquish a mob that drops the multi items, if repeated in same sequence over & over will seem to up the rate of multi item drops.

    May just be a fluke but has happened many times for me.
    There are NO Adults in this World,

    Just old Children, with Wrinkles b:chuckle
  • lordhanzo
    lordhanzo Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    DreamDrops - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Arrive fresh to grind on mobs, drop rate will appear higher than on respawns of same area mobs, more times the respawns killed the lower the coin drops & items.

    Maybe the monsters need some time to re-produce their bling-bling.
    If you milked a cow over and over nonstop, it wont have any milk left for awhile.

    b:avoid
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    I'm on Heavens Tear!
  • DreamDrops - Dreamweaver
    DreamDrops - Dreamweaver Posts: 95 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    lol LordHanzo, but these cows got auto feed :)
    There are NO Adults in this World,

    Just old Children, with Wrinkles b:chuckle
  • __Kikyo__ - Lost City
    __Kikyo__ - Lost City Posts: 281 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    i only read a little bit but.I know for fact that 3-1 is badley nerfed.The droprate is so bad in that HH its not worth doing.Well the sorcer boss drops 0-1 green mats every run.While in 3-2..The socer soul boss drops 4-5 green mats all the time.Why is that?
  • gyroki
    gyroki Posts: 450 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    __Kikyo__ - Lost City wrote: »
    i only read a little bit but.I know for fact that 3-1 is badley nerfed.The droprate is so bad in that HH its not worth doing.Well the sorcer boss drops 0-1 green mats every run.While in 3-2..The socer soul boss drops 4-5 green mats all the time.Why is that?

    In average i get about 1 gold drop at 2x drop in 3-1 per run. Arround xmas i got several times 2x sacred mother's aura in one run, and they sell well. Green mats r cheap anyway (u can only make some profit with ghost lord's ribbons and giant beast's armors if u wait with selling 1-2 months after 2x drop).

    I believe they lowered drop rate from all green mats when boss also can drop a valuable gold mat - cz ppl do multiple runs just for gold, and servers would be even more flooded with green mats when they would have a higher drop rate. Even an average geared gamer like me (5aps +11 sin, 5 aps +10 bm, demon dragon) can solo those instances very fast.
  • Sarrafeline - Sanctuary
    Sarrafeline - Sanctuary Posts: 4,661 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    gyroki wrote: »
    In average i get about 1 gold drop at 2x drop in 3-1 per run. Arround xmas i got several times 2x sacred mother's aura in one run, and they sell well. Green mats r cheap anyway (u can only make some profit with ghost lord's ribbons and giant beast's armors if u wait with selling 1-2 months after 2x drop).

    I believe they lowered drop rate from all green mats when boss also can drop a valuable gold mat - cz ppl do multiple runs just for gold, and servers would be even more flooded with green mats when they would have a higher drop rate. Even an average geared gamer like me (5aps +11 sin, 5 aps +10 bm, demon dragon) can solo those instances very fast.

    Awesome post... Except...

    2X doesn't effect drop rates of Gold mats (supposedly)

    How are you gonna see them through the huge ****ing SEA of OHT **** that those bosses drop?

    As far as I know, the 'nerf' to TT3-3 simply involved making the bosses harder, not changing the drop tables.

    There are also green mats that are worth the run, like GBA's, considering they are required for 2/3 TT90 armor pieces, and the drop rate can REALLY suck for those.
    101 Sage Sin*/Archer
    100 Demon BM*/Barb
    96 Demon Cleric/Sage Seeker
    95 Demon Wiz/
    94 Sage Veno
    85 Psy/80 Mystic
    And a handful of other alts, all 79 and under.
    *Pre RB level
  • Ikarium - Dreamweaver
    Ikarium - Dreamweaver Posts: 631 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    Sarrafeline - Sanctuary wrote: »
    2X doesn't effect drop rates of Gold mats (supposedly)
    Since when? I have never heard this before and the influx of gold mats into the market during 2x would seem to prove otherwise. They are part of the same drop table as the rest of the mats and there would be no reason for 2x to not affect them.

    The only drops not directly affected by 2x as far as I know are the skillooks from Hellfire Abomination and Peachblossom Ritualist, as the books are in a secondary drop table not affect by 2x.
  • SylenThunder - Twilight Temple
    SylenThunder - Twilight Temple Posts: 7,908
    edited February 2012
    2x only affects the primary drop rate. It does not affect secondary drops. IIRC, gold mats are secondary drops.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Olbaze - Sanctuary
    Olbaze - Sanctuary Posts: 4,242 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    2x only affects the primary drop rate. It does not affect secondary drops. IIRC, gold mats are secondary drops.

    Nope, they're primary. For example, here's Deathflow.
    I am Olba. Not Ol, not Baze nor Blaze. And even less would I go by Olblaze. Please, take a second to read a person's username.
    If you see b:cute be sure to take a second, calm look at anything I said.
  • Ikarium - Dreamweaver
    Ikarium - Dreamweaver Posts: 631 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    2x only affects the primary drop rate. It does not affect secondary drops. IIRC, gold mats are secondary drops.
    This is what I was saying. The default drop table is what is affected. Except look up any TT boss on the database. The golds are all in this primary/default drop table with the green mats/useless drops. They would be affected by 2x.
    2x the cycle count on a low chance gold mat is still a low chance. Doesn't mean they are not affected by 2x. You're getting 2x the cycle count on the drop rates, not the items dropped times 2 - which easily translates into people still having crappy luck on them.
    The only time the 2x is set as an actual 2 times is when the drops are set as an absolute, as in Nirvana.

    Look up either fb99 final boss. They have a clear secondary drop table for skill books not directly affected by 2x.
  • MyMate - Dreamweaver
    MyMate - Dreamweaver Posts: 558 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    I think you're all wrong.. When i grind (not often but still) i always get ****ty drops from the beginning but after like 10-15 mins the drops starts getting good b:laugh
    "In the beginning, it was claimed that all in Perfect World were equal. But now it seems that some are more equal than others..." ~ Lost City Recluse
  • BerserkBeast - Sanctuary
    BerserkBeast - Sanctuary Posts: 1,417 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    gyroki wrote: »
    Even an average geared gamer like me (5aps +11 sin, 5 aps +10 bm, demon dragon) can solo those instances very fast.

    *lols*
    The only way to beat a troll is....to troll him back b:angry
  • gyroki
    gyroki Posts: 450 Arc User
    edited February 2012
    BerserkBeast - Sanctuary wrote: »
    *lols*

    Beeing HH99/nv/r8 geared is average on lc server... go to south archo on lc server, the amount of full r9/ full +12 toons is insane. Our server looks like a private server b:surrender. My gear is mainly just +6/8, some parts +10. Ive seen casual gamers which barely play/know the game with better gear - i obtained everything by playing the game (+ merchanting).

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