Are normal refining chances back?

gyroki
gyroki Posts: 450 Arc User
edited October 2011 in General Discussion
Devs in china or employees of pwe obviously change refining chances quite often. They say e.g. in pwe wiki that refining chance to get +1 with mirages only is 60%. So chance to fail 20x and more before u get +1 should be ridiculous low. But atm its extremly likely.

Obviously they want ppl to lose their daily income by Fairy Boxes (many have tons after 4 weeks of 2x drop, thats why it is the new main income of coins in game nowadays). And I know ofc that no1 of the company would ever admit that they manipulate refining chances.

What i just want is to know is when normal refining chances r back (just write it here - in a view days or weeks or months). Just tell me, when u can refine with mirages only to +4 again without using more than 10k mirages.

I want to get answers from gamers only, not from GMs or Mods (nor from GM/ Mod fanboy/girl), cz when when i want to read jokes i got to other websites.
Post edited by gyroki on

Comments

  • LittlePony - Dreamweaver
    LittlePony - Dreamweaver Posts: 144 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    I refine to +4 easy with 50-100 mirages. b:cute
    The trouble with real life is that there is no danger music.
  • Pyrostormz - Raging Tide
    Pyrostormz - Raging Tide Posts: 956 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    gyroki wrote: »

    . And I know ofc that no1 of the company would ever admit that they manipulate refining chances.

    What i just want is to know is when normal refining chances r back


    they would never admit to doing it, yet you want to know when it will be changed back

    if i was that good, i would play the lotto
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  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    It's incredibly rare the devs do any work on the game at all. They wouldn't waste their time on secret changes noone seems to notice.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
    Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
    Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html
  • maja2009
    maja2009 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    its not hard to refine to +7 without orbsb:surrender
  • Karen_Divine - Sanctuary
    Karen_Divine - Sanctuary Posts: 54 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    b:chuckle I think you just have horrible luck, I got 8 things to +5 last night on less than 600 mirages so *shrugs* the refine rates are the same...and even if they were lowered 20 fails at +1...my BS meter is going off the charts b:surrender
  • Amencat - Sanctuary
    Amencat - Sanctuary Posts: 484 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    It's incredibly rare the devs do any work on the game at all. They wouldn't waste their time on secret changes noone seems to notice.

    guess they did it once to the same rate as for good drops in packs: 0.001 XDDD

    anwser to OP:


    NEVER!
    Some Rules each PWI Gamer should know
    1. Dont break this rules & no matter what: DONT TRUST ANYONE!
    2. Dont pay wine or heads fee (like to get kicked after that?) b:chuckle
    3. Dont borrow items (since when return gms scammed stuff?) b:embarrass
    4. Dont use your password in faction-forums (like hacks?) b:fatb
    5. Dont give your mats to the tt-banker (obvious, not?) b:beg
    6. Dont wait for help, or heals, or any other miracles,... (for more examples just play pwi and you will hate the whole humanity) b:bye
  • Pyrostormz - Raging Tide
    Pyrostormz - Raging Tide Posts: 956 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Amencat - Sanctuary wrote: »
    guess they did it once to the same rate as for good drops in packs: 0.001 XDDD

    those were always the drop rate b:bye
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  • Veri - Lothranis
    Veri - Lothranis Posts: 127 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    OP seems like a highly educated person that knows how probability works.
  • gyroki
    gyroki Posts: 450 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    @Asterelle
    >It's incredibly rare the devs do any work on the game at all. They wouldn't waste their time >on secret changes noone seems to notice.
    Its no big deal for them to change just 1 number. Even a 10 year old can do it. It even fits with the companies decision to slow down in-game promotional activities.


    @maja2009
    >its not hard to refine to +7 without orbs
    fail troll, its even faster to grind dq items with a lvl 20 toon, sell the coins to npc, buy dragon orb +1 for 250k each at cat shops and combine them to lvl 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 orbs. Cz u would waste months with clicking before u c +7

    @Veri
    >OP seems like a highly educated person that knows how probability works.
    I even dont need my high education to make this simple math.


    @Karen_Divine
    >I think you just have horrible luck, I got 8 things to +5 last night on less than 600 mirages
    fail troll, no1 who's playing this game will believe u.
    The waste of one 100 mirages is is a tragedy, the waste of 1k+ is a statistic.
  • Okeano - Harshlands
    Okeano - Harshlands Posts: 4,943 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    gyroki wrote: »

    @maja2009
    >its not hard to refine to +7 without orbs
    fail troll, its even faster to grind dq items with a lvl 20 toon, sell the coins to npc, buy dragon orb +1 for 250k each at cat shops and combine them to lvl 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 orbs. Cz u would waste months with clicking before u c +7

    Errr, I JUST refined my R9 plate to 7 with around 100 mirages, 8 Tishas and 8 Tienkangs (5 gold worth). Took about 15 minutes? Last week I got 2 pieces of +3 to +5 in 4 mirages and 4 refine aid, +5 bow to +6 in one Tisha. So quit your QQing.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    gyroki wrote: »
    @maja2009
    >its not hard to refine to +7 without orbs
    fail troll, its even faster to grind dq items with a lvl 20 toon, sell the coins to npc, buy dragon orb +1 for 250k each at cat shops and combine them to lvl 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 orbs. Cz u would waste months with clicking before u c +7
    If you want to make a claim that refining odds have changed, go ahead. But you undermine your argument when you immediately then follow up your claim by making absurd statements about how refining to +7 is o-so-impossible. It's not. People, including myself, do it all the time, and it doesn't take "months".

    The impression I'm left with is that you don't actually have any real experience with refining, but rather you probably tried it once or twice, failed, and are now convinced the devs MUST have changed the odds.
    gyroki wrote: »
    @Karen_Divine
    >I think you just have horrible luck, I got 8 things to +5 last night on less than 600 mirages
    fail troll, no1 who's playing this game will believe u.
    The waste of one 100 mirages is is a tragedy, the waste of 1k+ is a statistic.[/FONT][/FONT][/SIZE]
    I've refined about ~25 items up to +5 over the years, and I fully believe her, because those results sound normal.

    I've had a +5 armour refine take over 600 Mirages, but I've also had a +5 armour refine take 10 Mirages.

    Personally, I attribute the difference to random chance, not developer conspiracy.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • sangodoc
    sangodoc Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    gyroki wrote: »
    Devs in china or employees of pwe obviously change refining chances quite often.
    If it's so "obvious" then why not post some evidence of your claims? I'm sure some here would love to study your statistically significant results. b:chuckle
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Personally, I attribute the difference to random chance, not developer conspiracy.
    Some people don't like the idea that things don't happen for any reason beyond random chance. Furthermore, statistics is something that doesn't come naturally to the human mind. The end result is that people find conspiracies far more comforting as an explanation, because then there's someone controlling things, thus someone to thank or blame for their situation.

    I've found that very few people like that are open minded when it comes to the possibility that the things they're complaining about really do happen completely randomly sometimes.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Visit the PWI wiki for the useful information. Stay at the PWI wiki for the pie. ;-)
  • Dethprowl - Raging Tide
    Dethprowl - Raging Tide Posts: 411 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Sangodoc wrote: »
    If it's so "obvious" then why not post some evidence of your claims? I'm sure some here would love to study your statistically significant results. b:chuckle


    Some people don't like the idea that things don't happen for any reason beyond random chance. Furthermore, statistics is something that doesn't come naturally to the human mind. The end result is that people find conspiracies far more comforting as an explanation, because then there's someone controlling things, thus someone to thank or blame for their situation.

    I've found that very few people like that are open minded when it comes to the possibility that the things they're complaining about really do happen completely randomly sometimes.

    I think the fact that PWI has become so money hungry makes it easy for people to believe that the game is rigged against them.
  • SpiderBait_x - Lost City
    SpiderBait_x - Lost City Posts: 12 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Dude out of curiousity how do u refine? i bet you sit there with 1 item in and keep clicking hoping to hit a succession of Refine Succesful's
    You calling a person a fail troll for refining to +5 without orbs? ROFL man go uninstal the game please!.
    and +7 is very atainable without orbs, just use event gold and buy some tisha's and teinkangs

    Pleaese learn how refining works before you go off complaining and creating a thread raging because u suck *** at it!

    kthnxbai b:bye
  • Salasyn - Heavens Tear
    Salasyn - Heavens Tear Posts: 286 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    gyroki wrote: »
    @Asterelle
    >It's incredibly rare the devs do any work on the game at all. They wouldn't waste their time >on secret changes noone seems to notice.
    Its no big deal for them to change just 1 number. Even a 10 year old can do it. It even fits with the companies decision to slow down in-game promotional activities.


    @maja2009
    >its not hard to refine to +7 without orbs
    fail troll, its even faster to grind dq items with a lvl 20 toon, sell the coins to npc, buy dragon orb +1 for 250k each at cat shops and combine them to lvl 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 orbs. Cz u would waste months with clicking before u c +7

    @Veri
    >OP seems like a highly educated person that knows how probability works.
    I even dont need my high education to make this simple math.


    @Karen_Divine
    >I think you just have horrible luck, I got 8 things to +5 last night on less than 600 mirages
    fail troll, no1 who's playing this game will believe u.
    The waste of one 100 mirages is is a tragedy, the waste of 1k+ is a statistic.

    Lol Tisha and Tienkangs?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Yin - Momaganon
    Yin - Momaganon Posts: 177 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    b:laugh this almost looks like poker forums. On poker forums there are always some who claims that game is against them. I used to have millions of poker hands in database and sometimes there used to be extremely long streaks of unluck and also otherway round. In long run outcome always was expected but that sometimes took even 100thousands hands to correct cap between expected value and luck.

    We easily think that our luck is worse than others but stats shows the reality and stats need huge amount of data to be accurate.

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