How Much Would a 95/100 Clean Zeal Cost

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  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Traz - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    If this is true we should have 1,000s of 91+ genies on each server.

    Uhh that's a very bad estimate lol.

    How many active level 100+ players do you think each server has exactly? I can't think it would be higher than 10,000? How many 100+ genies has each of those players made on average? 3?

    That's 30,000 100+ genies so you would expect if only 1 in 6,521 genies of those genies would hit 91+ there would only be like 5 91+ genies per server.

    My server has probably around 25 or 30 91+ genies. This is because people add selective pressure when they make genies by discarding the crappy ones. Apparently for each genie that has hit 100, they discarded 5 genies that were lousy.

    That sounds pretty reasonable and falls well within what you can observe. Actually if you look at the chart you would see that if you discard 5 or so genies leaving only the best you should be left with a 63/100 genie on average. That certainly sounds like a very average genie you see on random people.

    If you were right and only 1 in 10million or whatever genies were 91+ most servers wouldn't have any 91+ genies at all.
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  • Traz - Dreamweaver
    Traz - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Uhh that's a very bad estimate lol.

    How many active level 100+ players do you think each server has exactly? I can't think it would be higher than 10,000? How many 100+ genies has each of those players made on average? 3?

    That's 30,000 100+ genies so you would expect if only 1 in 6,521 genies of those genies would hit 91+ there would only be like 5 91+ genies per server.

    My server has probably around 25 or 30 91+ genies. This is because people add selective pressure when they make genies by discarding the crappy ones. Apparently for each genie that has hit 100, they discarded 5 genies that were lousy.

    That sounds pretty reasonable and falls well within what you can observe.

    If you were right and only 1 in 10million or whatever genies were 91+ most servers wouldn't have any 91+ genies at all.

    It's about active players over the course of 3 years, not just about current ones though.
    BladedZero - Sanctuary
    "Also I don't think actually playing through the game helps your skill either."

    -And we wonder why this game has gone to hell b:cute
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Traz - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    It's not jsut about active players currently this is over the course of 3 years of active players.

    It's only about the subset of those players that hit level 100 after the age of spirits expansion. That probably eliminates like 80 or 90% of all players over the history of the game.

    You think that there have been millions of players playing on a server but there haven't. Servers don't hold millions of people. Real life cities hold millions of people.
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  • Traz - Dreamweaver
    Traz - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    It's only about the subset of those players that hit level 100 after the age of spirits expansion. That probably eliminates like 80 or 90% of all players over the history of the game.

    You think that there have been millions of players playing on a server but there haven't. Servers don't hold millions of people. Real life cities hold millions of people.

    I demand frankie to tell us so we can really see QQ.


    PS you still need to take into account 1/10 not being relevant in 91/100 genies. I at least didn't see you account for things such as that.

    PSS the odds change the sooner you get the 9/10. For example, if you get 9/10 on the first one the rest of the strings are worthless to use in the odds and you are down to 1 string (basically you need straight 10s), but if you get 10/10 on the first one you still have all the strings that are valid to get your 99/100. It's complicated. This is why I don't really like that thinking, due to if you get 9/10 on the first one you cut to one string and it's "harder" to get the remaining points (.19^9). No matter what string you're on it's the same odds to 99/100. Honestly doesn't matter how many strings their are you will only ever be on one of them and the odds of that are .19^9 * .15.
    BladedZero - Sanctuary
    "Also I don't think actually playing through the game helps your skill either."

    -And we wonder why this game has gone to hell b:cute
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Traz - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    I demand frankie to tell us so we can really see QQ.


    PS you still need to take into account 1/10 not being relevant in 91/100 genies. I at least didn't see you account for things such as that.

    PSS the odds change the sooner you get the 9/10. For example, if you get 9/10 on the first one the rest of the strings are worthless to use in the odds and you are down to 1 string (basically you need straight 10s), but if you get 10/10 on the first one you still have all the strings that are valid to get your 99/100. It's complicated. This is why I don't really like that thinking, due to if you get 9/10 on the first one you cut to one string and it's "harder" to get the remaining points .19^9 but no matter what string you're on it's the same odds to 99/100. Honestly doesn't matter how many strings their are you will only ever be on one of them and the odds of that are .19^9 * .15.

    What evidence do you have I didn't take something into account? I only showed you the derivation of more trivial cases for 100/100 and 99/100. Rest assured I took everything into account and that the chance for a 91+ genie is 1 in 6,521.

    This is a far more reasonable number than your figure of 1 in 10 million and the math can be verified by someone with knowledge of combinatorics and probability (such as myself).

    I'm afraid I don't really have a passion to teach you more about combinatorics anymore than I already have. If you're interested in the subject try reading up about it on wikipedia or wait till you cover it in school.
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  • Prophete - Dreamweaver
    Prophete - Dreamweaver Posts: 283 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    This is basic probability calculation, and Astarelle is right.
  • MoonUsagi - Heavens Tear
    MoonUsagi - Heavens Tear Posts: 4,377 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    These thread was hijacked by math contest. b:kiss
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  • Sir_Puma - Raging Tide
    Sir_Puma - Raging Tide Posts: 780 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    b:shocked

    Wow , and I thought genies were as simple as :

    - Feed spirit (or exp), if at lvl 30 it doesnt have AT LEAST 21/30, decompose before it gets to 40 and restart..

    But seriously, i'm impressed of all the calculations, gonna help me more to filter them...
    Proud supporter of the new expansion. Sure it has it's share of bugs, like any games. But for a pure farmer/grinder, that's a whole lot of new mobs to go beat up b:chuckle
  • hanfknolle
    hanfknolle Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    91/100 sells for 150-180mil, Whats the diffrent between 91/100 or 100/100 nothing, just if they going to upgrade the Genie with 101+ Lp and putting level req to 110 lol :)
    You got trolled
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  • _SoulCrusheR - Dreamweaver
    _SoulCrusheR - Dreamweaver Posts: 18 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Offtopic:

    this 100\100 picture was taken like a year ago on Russian official server. So far only 1 100\100 genie in the whole world I've seen:
    http://i007.radikal.ru/1012/92/6904723d0d0f.jpg
  • Man - Raging Tide
    Man - Raging Tide Posts: 1,410 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    Paid 100 mil for 93/100 genie

    Best genie i've seen is the one i saw on harshlands 99/100? 100/100? Can't remember what it was.
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  • Templar - Sanctuary
    Templar - Sanctuary Posts: 607 Arc User
    edited August 2011
    It is confirmed that doing secret lucky dance and closing your eyes when level genie can get you more lucky points b:chuckle

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