Epic Luck?

Azzazin - Dreamweaver

My friend said he just opened 40 anniversary packs, and received the following:

-citrine gem
-heavenrage boots
-perfect token of best luck
-36 packs worth of tokens
-scroll of tome

He linked the items, he got them without a doubt. The part I'm skeptical about is the 40 packs bit. Any of you math buffs out there care to do the number crunching for me? What are the odds that he actually got that ^ from 40 packs? 40 packs or 400, that still seems like incredible luck.

Azzazin


Edit:

Ah, I checked pwdatabase, the lack of mathy people is forcing me to attempt the calcs for myself.
For opening 1 pack:

Chances:

Scroll of tome 0.01% (0.0001)
Perfect Token of Best Luck 1.715% (0.01715)
Heavenrage boots 0.03% (0.0003)
Citrine gem 0.04% (0.0004)

Ok, so going one by one, if you opened 40 packs, the % chance of getting each item would be multiplied by 40.

Scroll of tome: 0.0001*40 = 0.004
Perfect ToBL : 0.01715*40 = 0.686
Heavenrage boots: 0.0003*40 = 0.012
Citrine gem: 0.0004*40 = 0.016

Here's the part where I'm not so sure how to proceed. How do you calculate the chance of all of these events occuring within the same 40 packs? Would one multiply the probabilities together? Seems too easy... but if we do that, we get:

Chance of all 4 events happening = 0.004*0.686*0.012*0.016 = 0.0000005268

Which, roughly speaking, is 5/10million, or 1/2million. Ie, ... heh, somebody already wrote that, lol. Go Devoted! Seems like maybe my calcs are right. But yeah, 1/2million chance of getting all that stuff in 40 packs... jeez lol.

Scroll of tome ~ 275mil
Heavenrage boots ~80mil
Perfect ToBL ~5mil
Citrine Gem ~20mil

Total = 380mil
40 packs = ~ 20mil
Profit = ~360mil

Yeah I'll double check that it was 40 packs... lol geez.

Self_Suicide - Harshlands

Shoulda posted that on archer forums b:chuckle

Well i did a bit of math and assuming that the chances of getting scroll of tome and token of best luck are the same for all the other packs (cause i couldnt find the 2 on the anniversary pack drop rate)

.05% citrine gem = 5%
.025% Heavenrage boots = 2.5%
.72% Token of best luck = 7.2%
.002% scroll of tome = .02%

I got those numbers assuming it takes 10 packs for each item. plz correct me if im wrong here

threepointone

Self_Suicide - Harshlands wrote: »

Shoulda posted that on archer forums b:chuckle

Quote for truth.

Shulkie - Dreamweaver

you are as likely to get all that from 40 packs as you are from 4000 packs - just comes down to probabilities and percentages - he may have just timed it right for the random generator and it was due for a "payout"

Devoted - Lost City

1 in 2000000?

Renza - Raging Tide

its entirely possible of course, just needs some massive luck, i remember when i had 2 gold spare so i thought id just buy 2 packs with them, my first one was a perfect token of best luck, second was just the 15 normal tokens, easy 5million for me lol

Okeano - Harshlands

I've probably opened around 4000 packs by now... no SoT yet b:sad.

ArchSaber - Sanctuary

I've opened 100 and all I got was all tokens, so yah epic luck.

MistaBwanden - Sanctuary

I opened 400+ packs and got one Primeval and the rest, tokens.

Oneji - Heavens Tear

Azzazin - Dreamweaver wrote: »

My friend said he just opened 40 anniversary packs, and received the following:

-citrine gem
-heavenrage boots
-perfect token of best luck
-36 packs worth of tokens
-scroll of tome

He linked the items, he got them without a doubt. The part I'm skeptical about is the 40 packs bit. Any of you math buffs out there care to do the number crunching for me? What are the odds that he actually got that ^ from 40 packs? 40 packs or 400, that still seems like incredible luck.

Azzazin


Edit:

Ah, I checked pwdatabase, the lack of mathy people is forcing me to attempt the calcs for myself.
For opening 1 pack:

Chances:

Scroll of tome 0.01% (0.0001)
Perfect Token of Best Luck 1.715% (0.01715)
Heavenrage boots 0.03% (0.0003)
Citrine gem 0.04% (0.0004)

Ok, so going one by one, if you opened 40 packs, the % chance of getting each item would be multiplied by 40.

Scroll of tome: 0.0001*40 = 0.004
Perfect ToBL : 0.01715*40 = 0.686
Heavenrage boots: 0.0003*40 = 0.012
Citrine gem: 0.0004*40 = 0.016

Here's the part where I'm not so sure how to proceed. How do you calculate the chance of all of these events occuring within the same 40 packs? Would one multiply the probabilities together? Seems too easy... but if we do that, we get:

Chance of all 4 events happening = 0.004*0.686*0.012*0.016 = 0.0000005268

Which, roughly speaking, is 5/10million, or 1/2million. Ie, ... heh, somebody already wrote that, lol. Go Devoted! Seems like maybe my calcs are right. But yeah, 1/2million chance of getting all that stuff in 40 packs... jeez lol.

Scroll of tome ~ 275mil
Heavenrage boots ~80mil
Perfect ToBL ~5mil
Citrine Gem ~20mil

Total = 380mil
40 packs = ~ 20mil
Profit = ~360mil

Yeah I'll double check that it was 40 packs... lol geez.

You can be skeptical all you want, but the math does not lie. It is entirely possible to get that in 40 packs or less, seeing as how everything is random draw. Today I bought a pet pack buy mistake and got a Baby Frost Phoenix(My first good thing ever next to a charm).

HealingBliss - Lost City

500 packs
all of them tokens of luck
all of them b:cute

Devoted - Lost City

Devoted - Lost City wrote: »

1 in 2000000?

Wow that was a complete 10 seconds in my head guess. Archers don't even need math with this kind of power. b:cool

Azzazin - Dreamweaver

Rofl, I guess not.

Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973

You're calculating the chances of getting that exact combination of prizes. That of course will be very low. However there are a great deal of other sets of prizes you would have considered equally epic (like getting holy helm instead of heavenrage or garnet gem instead of citrine gem).

If you calculate the odds of getting a total of 380m of loot from 40 packs you would arrive at a higher value that looks more realistic.

Also keep in mind that people forget scroll of tome was 5 times more likely in annipacks than in all the other packs. Thats why they were 100m back then instead of 300m now.

Dsholder - Dreamweaver

Let me start by saying that your friend opened a few more packs than 40, but he did get all of those items within the first 40 packs. He opened in total though over 3 different days 60 packs.

Items Gained:

[*]Heavenrage Boots
[*]Perfect Token of Best Luck
[*]Citrine Gem
[*]Scroll of Tome
[*]Platinum HP Charm
[*]825 Perfect Tokens of Luck


Your friend bought gold at 900k each for the first 20 packs, costing 450k each. Then the next 20 packs he bought gold for only 850k each, costing 425k each. The next 20 packs where bought with gold price of 760k, costing 380k each.

Total Cost to Open the 60 Packs: 25,150,000 coins
Total Estimated Worth of Gained Items from Packs: 415,750,000
Total Estimated Profit: 390,600,000


Perfect World database shows that 97% of the time you will get Perfect Tokens of Luck. This means that I still have a 3% chance to get one of the good items from the Anniversary Packs. 3% of 60 is only 1.8, so I was only really supposed to gain 2 good items, but instead I gained 4. If I were to open let's say, 1000 packs then I'd expect a return of up to 30 decent items.

Shalis - Harshlands

Dsholder - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Let me start by saying that your friend opened a few more packs than 40, but he did get all of those items within the first 40 packs. He opened in total though over 3 different days 60 packs.

Items Gained:

[*]Heavenrage Boots
[*]Perfect Token of Best Luck
[*]Citrine Gem
[*]Scroll of Tome
[*]Platinum HP Charm
[*]825 Perfect Tokens of Luck


Your friend bought gold at 900k each for the first 20 packs, costing 450k each. Then the next 20 packs he bought gold for only 850k each, costing 425k each. The next 20 packs where bought with gold price of 760k, costing 380k each.

Total Cost to Open the 60 Packs: 25,150,000 coins
Total Estimated Worth of Gained Items from Packs: 415,750,000
Total Estimated Profit: 390,600,000


Perfect World database shows that 97% of the time you will get Perfect Tokens of Luck. This means that I still have a 3% chance to get one of the good items from the Anniversary Packs. 3% of 60 is only 1.8, so I was only really supposed to gain 2 good items, but instead I gained 4. If I were to open let's say, 1000 packs then I'd expect a return of up to 30 decent items.

another thing that might be worth taking in consideration, althought it makes accurate math prediction impossible, is that the RNG for the packs looks like is server wide. Meaning if there is 10 people opening 1 pack a mn there is few chances of those 10 people getting anything good, but if there are 1000 people opening 5 packs a mn chances are high that someone will get 1 or multiple items out of the packs.

This is the only thing i can think of that can explain the "red spam" on prime time EST in HLs, where you will see half a dozen or more people gaining rares out of the packs in groups.

this is based only on my observations and could possibly be proven false.

Fleuri - Sanctuary

Shalis - Harshlands wrote: »

another thing that might be worth taking in consideration, althought it makes accurate math prediction impossible, is that the RNG for the packs looks like is server wide. Meaning if there is 10 people opening 1 pack a mn there is few chances of those 10 people getting anything good, but if there are 1000 people opening 5 packs a mn chances are high that someone will get 1 or multiple items out of the packs.

This is the only thing i can think of that can explain the "red spam" on prime time EST in HLs, where you will see half a dozen or more people gaining rares out of the packs in groups.

I do not understand what you are trying to say, but I think you have observed that the rate of pack opening, during "prime time" is higher than other times.

ThanosQRt - Dreamweaver

Fleuri - Sanctuary wrote: »

I do not understand what you are trying to say, but I think you have observed that the rate of pack opening, during "prime time" is higher than other times.

cant-remember-the-name effect:
1)a rumour is spread that u get scroll of tome at 4pm
2)everybode opens packs at 4pm
3)somebody gets scroll of tome at 4pm
4)even more people open packs at 4pm
5)GOTO 3
6)???
7)PROFIT!!

Shalis - Harshlands

Fleuri - Sanctuary wrote: »

I do not understand what you are trying to say, but I think you have observed that the rate of pack opening, during "prime time" is higher than other times.

hehe.. there is no "packs"

its RNG access requests. everytime you "open a pack" you are asking the RNG to generate a number for you. depending on the number you get a prize (lets say 1-900 ToL, 900-910 ToBL, 910-905 SoT etc, just for an idea)

what i was saying is that the more people are accessing the RNG at the same time the higher the chances of getting a item.

nothing to do with time per se but to do with the # of RNG access requests at any given time and the type of RNG being used.

if the RNG was individual to a character then there would be a even spread of items during pack openings, even during prime time it would be evenly spread out over the prime time. But what instead happens is that pack winnings come in groups. you will see 2-3 people winning at a time during low peak hours and 6 or more at a time during prime.

And thanos if players in a server agreed to open their packs, which they where planning to open anyways, for example between 2000 and 2030 pm everyday instead of whenever how would that profit pwi? If anything they wouldn't want players to figure that out as it would likely significantly increase the average winnings.

ThanosQRt - Dreamweaver

Shalis - Harshlands wrote: »

And thanatos if players in a server agreed to open their packs, which they where planning to open anyways, for example between 2000 and 2030 pm everyday instead of whenever how would that profit pwi? If anything they wouldn't want players to figure that out as it would likely significantly increase the average winnings.

steps 6,7 is just a joke, not a conspirancy theory xd

Shalis - Harshlands

Sorry i mispelled your name :P

Keliska - Raging Tide

Different individual packs eh that should be adding.

lol for tome of scroll it's a .4% chance for anniversy pack.

1/100 compared to Lucky Coral's 1/400

Chances are very good for him to get it. Same as you losing a item in your inventory if you die with a blue or white name. lol that would be about 4 times for me so far.

My luck most of been good yesterday I fell of my mount about 10 times in a row. 10% chance of falling off mount.

threepointone

Keliska - Raging Tide wrote: »

lol for tome of scroll it's a .4% chance for anniversy pack.

1/100 compared to Lucky Coral's 1/400

0.4% is not the same as 1/100. And the percentage of getting a Scroll of Tome in an Anniversary Pack is 0.01%, or 1/10000.

Devoted - Lost City

ThanosQRt - Dreamweaver wrote: »

cant-remember-the-name effect:
1)a rumour is spread that u get scroll of tome at 4pm
2)everybode opens packs at 4pm
3)somebody gets scroll of tome at 4pm
4)even more people open packs at 4pm
5)GOTO 3
6)???
7)PROFIT!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self_fulfilling_prophecy

You're welcome

The actual 'effect' is positive feedback. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback

Boogiepanda - Raging Tide

Trade your house for 250,000 gold and sooner or later you'll probably get that in 40 packs.

ThanosQRt - Dreamweaver

Shalis - Harshlands wrote: »

Sorry i mispelled your name :P

np, thanatos has a similar meaning with thanos anyway xd

Devoted - Lost City wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self_fulfilling_prophecy

You're welcome

The actual 'effect' is positive feedback. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback

ty :b i knew it was something about prophecy

Traz - Dreamweaver

Shalis - Harshlands wrote: »

hehe.. there is no "packs"

its RNG access requests. everytime you "open a pack" you are asking the RNG to generate a number for you. depending on the number you get a prize (lets say 1-900 ToL, 900-910 ToBL, 910-905 SoT etc, just for an idea)

what i was saying is that the more people are accessing the RNG at the same time the higher the chances of getting a item.

nothing to do with time per se but to do with the # of RNG access requests at any given time and the type of RNG being used.

if the RNG was individual to a character then there would be a even spread of items during pack openings, even during prime time it would be evenly spread out over the prime time. But what instead happens is that pack winnings come in groups. you will see 2-3 people winning at a time during low peak hours and 6 or more at a time during prime.

And thanos if players in a server agreed to open their packs, which they where planning to open anyways, for example between 2000 and 2030 pm everyday instead of whenever how would that profit pwi? If anything they wouldn't want players to figure that out as it would likely significantly increase the average winnings.

The RNG is the RNG it does not matter how many people are accessing it, there is always 1 INDEPENDENT (key word) number generated. The rest is all based on the ranges that you need to acquire the certain "good" items.

Obviously the more packs being opened the more red spam you see...because....there are more packs being opened means more "good" items being awarded lololol.

If one person is opening 500 packs will always (theoretically) show less red spam then 50 people opening 500 packs since you have...50x the probability to get a "good" item.

Baalbak - Dreamweaver

meh.. i would hope that after buying 40 packs you get something worth your money. personally one day I opened 40 packs and got:

Soul Relic
Diamond of Dragon
Token of Best Luck
37 packs of tokens

not as epic luck as your friend I'd say, considering these items are less valuable than his. but still. I would have been a bit annoyed if i got just 40 packs of tokens.

SuperHebbe - Dreamweaver

Theoretically you can open 1000000000000 packs, and all will be Scroll of Tome b:chuckle

Btw: Here is what I got after 621 packs: http://superhebbe.com/packs.jpg

Dsholder - Dreamweaver

SuperHebbe - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Theoretically you can open 1000000000000 packs, and all will be Scroll of Tome b:chuckle

Btw: Here is what I got after 621 packs: http://superhebbe.com/packs.jpg

Now that's my kinda theory ^_^

I also did some math and around 4% of your packs weren't tokens which is a pretty good thing ^__^ As long as you get 3% or more non-tokens then you can make some profit.

Dsholder - Dreamweaver

Overall stats of my packs addiction.

Amount Opened: 1009

Items Gained:

[*]2 Badge of Bravery
[*]3 Plat HP Charms
[*]3 Plat MP Charms
[*]14 Tokens of Best Luck
[*]2 Citrine Gems
[*]1 Sapphire Gem
[*]1 Savant Stone
[*]1 Lunar Glade-Wing Trophy
[*]3 Heavenrage Boot
[*]1 Helm of Holy Punishment
[*]2 Diamond of Tiger
[*]1 Diamond of Dragon
[*]3 Scroll of Tome
[*]14025 Tokens of Luck


Total Estimated Cost: 454,005,000 coins
Total Estimated Worth of Items: 1,425,000,000
Total Estimated Profit: 970,995,000