Stop Buy Tiger Packs!!!!
Aalpeculea - Sanctuary
Posts: 28 Arc User
Today, I bought around 400 tiger packs, and when I open them all. Guess what??? I only get 2 best of luck and one tiger mount!!!!
Post edited by Aalpeculea - Sanctuary on
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Comments
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wow, your luck really sucks.I post in forums. This one and others. That's why I post.0
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Michael_Dark - Lost City wrote: »wow, your luck really sucks.
it isn't my luck suck, it is pwe/pwi change the pack drop rate!!!!!0 -
lol ur luck rly suck.
tiger packs usually give profit.I'm sorry for misspelling / mistyping and grammar b:surrender
102 - Archer - Heartz0 -
Wow. Who would have thought that something with a 97% chance of happening would happen? It's a conspiracy, clearly.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0
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Heartstone - Dreamweaver wrote: »lol ur luck rly suck.
tiger packs usually give profit.
you sure lol. i donot see how you can make profit from it. 400 packs and i only get 2 best. ** it0 -
Loltank - Harshlands wrote: »Wow. Who would have thought that something with a 97% chance of happening would happen? It's a conspiracy, clearly.
E gasp
Boy's he knows our secret... quick get him! make him look like a alien nut... you know one of those things that people think might be true, but can't prove it, and yet we can't disprove it either.
QQ
GTFO of dodge!
.... j/k ...
______
All joking aside, yes I have noticed it a bit too, I am so not liking the return of cash from packs at the moment... TT seems like every 100 bm I have ran into nowadays have decides +... QQ I want some. =x
*plots world domination instead*
Sadly I think i have a better chance at succeeding with that then getting 5.0 anytime soon. =xAh, Mistakes are so easily made. ~ laura resnick
What kind of message are you sending when you insult my intelligence? ~ Me ~ 5/29/2015 (Yes it is possible someone said this before just no idea who/where.)0 -
if you guys know the tip how to open packs tell me lol
no more $$$
am i the only one get 2 best of luck from 400 packs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0 -
Aalpeculea - Sanctuary wrote: »am i the only one get 2 best of luck from 400 packs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You have a 97% chance of getting regular tokens.
Take a math class. You need it.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
"subtraction has the butt of an angel" - Paulrogers
I Subtraction.
/blatant sig copy is blatant
105/105/105 obtained! b:cute0 -
Eoria - Harshlands wrote: »You have a 97% chance of getting regular tokens.
Take a math class. You need it.
You take math classes you really need it.
97% mean, that you get 97 times tokens from 100 packs, BUT in 100 packs you should get 3 non tokens items(or token of best luck).
So from 400 packs he should get 12 non tokens items(or best luck tokens). Just theoretically.
I already notice, that they changing probability to get something useful.
From what I heard from another players(how many packs they opened) probability is NOT 97%, but a lot less.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »You take math classes you really need it.
97% mean, that you get 97 times tokens from 100 packs, BUT in 100 packs you should get 3 non tokens items(or token of best luck).
So from 400 packs he should get 12 non tokens items(or best luck tokens). Just theoretically.
I already notice, that they changing probability to get something useful.
From what I heard from another players(how many packs they opened) probability is NOT 97%, but a lot less.
b:victory0 -
Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »You take math classes you really need it.
97% mean, that you get 97 times tokens from 100 packs, BUT in 100 packs you should get 3 non tokens items(or token of best luck).
So from 400 packs he should get 12 non tokens items(or best luck tokens). Just theoretically.
I already notice, that they changing probability to get something useful.
From what I heard from another players(how many packs they opened) probability is NOT 97%, but a lot less.
u take math classes mister u prolly need it aswell..97% means that theres a POSSIBILITY
of winning something nontokenish out of the packs by 3 to 100..that means u can even open 500 packs and still get nothing but tokens...so in 100 packs there is no "should get" its all luck thats how it works.0 -
The OP just proofed that it is 97% chance for each pack. It has nothing to do with the number of packs you open.0
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Kreuz - Raging Tide wrote: »The OP just proofed that it is 97% chance for each pack. It has nothing to do with the number of packs you open.
b:victory b:sin b:dirty b:beg[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Sorry i speak engrish b:chuckle
Nickname doesn't have anything to do with sailor but related to a folklore
Use search, it was your best friends to avoid many suffering in internet...0 -
With a 3% chance to get non-luck tokens, here are the chances of opening 400 packs and getting:Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »So from 400 packs he should get 12 non tokens items(or best luck tokens). Just theoretically.
I already notice, that they changing probability to get something useful.
From what I heard from another players(how many packs they opened) probability is NOT 97%, but a lot less.
0 prizes: 0.0005%
1 prize: 0.0063%
2 prizes: 0.039%
3 prizes: 0.16% <- what Aalpeculea got
4 prizes: 0.49%
5 prizes: 1.2%
6 prizes: 2.5%
7 prizes: 4.3%
8 prizes: 6.5%
9 prizes: 8.7%
10 prizes: 10.6%
11 prizes: 11.6%
12 prizes: 11.6% <- the peak, as expected
13 prizes: 10.7%
14 prizes: 9.2%
15 prizes: 7.3%
16 prizes: 5.4%
17 prizes: 3.8%
18 prizes: 2.5%
19 prizes: 1.6%
20 prizes: 0.91%
21 prizes: 0.51%
22 prizes: 0.26%
23 prizes: 0.14%
24 prizes: 0.067%
25+ prizes: 0.055%
So while getting only 3 prizes is very unlucky, it's not that unlucky. 0.16% is a 1 in 624 chance of it happening.
3 successes in a sample size of 400 packs gives you a 0.75% success rate with a +/- 0.20% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 95% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.55% - 0.95%). It gives a +/- 0.25% margin of error at a 99% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 99% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.50% - 1.0%).
So while 3/400 is not that improbable, it is a statistically significant deviation from the expected norm. That is, there could be something fishy going on here. It'd be good to get more people's experience with this. Do note however that 5/400 prizes would be within the 99% confidence interval of a 3% prize rate. There's not much difference between 3 prizes -> 5 prizes.0 -
Kreuz - Raging Tide wrote: »The OP just proofed that it is 97% chance for each pack. It has nothing to do with the number of packs you open.
Not really. It's basic statistics that if A has X% chance happen per each trial then as the trial number gets large A should happen X% of the time out of the total trials. The amount of packs he opened is far too small when we are dealing with items that have 1/10 or 1/100 % chance to obtain.Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »
3 successes in a sample size of 400 packs gives you a 0.75% success rate with a +/- 0.20% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 95% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.55% - 0.95%). It gives a +/- 0.25% margin of error at a 99% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 99% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.50% - 1.0%).
So while 3/400 is not that improbable, it is a statistically significant deviation from the expected norm. That is, there could be something fishy going on here. It'd be good to get more people's experience with this. Do note however that 5/400 prizes would be within the 99% confidence interval of a 3% prize rate. There's not much difference between 3 prizes -> 5 prizes.
This reminds me of my statistics book b:cold.0 -
Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »With a 3% chance to get non-luck tokens, here are the chances of opening 400 packs and getting:
0 prizes: 0.0005%
1 prize: 0.0063%
2 prizes: 0.039%
3 prizes: 0.16% <- what Aalpeculea got
4 prizes: 0.49%
5 prizes: 1.2%
6 prizes: 2.5%
7 prizes: 4.3%
8 prizes: 6.5%
9 prizes: 8.7%
10 prizes: 10.6%
11 prizes: 11.6%
12 prizes: 11.6% <- the peak, as expected
13 prizes: 10.7%
14 prizes: 9.2%
15 prizes: 7.3%
16 prizes: 5.4%
17 prizes: 3.8%
18 prizes: 2.5%
19 prizes: 1.6%
20 prizes: 0.91%
21 prizes: 0.51%
22 prizes: 0.26%
23 prizes: 0.14%
24 prizes: 0.067%
25+ prizes: 0.055%
So while getting only 3 prizes is very unlucky, it's not that unlucky. 0.16% is a 1 in 624 chance of it happening.
3 successes in a sample size of 400 packs gives you a 0.75% success rate with a +/- 0.20% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 95% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.55% - 0.95%). It gives a +/- 0.25% margin of error at a 99% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 99% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.50% - 1.0%).
So while 3/400 is not that improbable, it is a statistically significant deviation from the expected norm. That is, there could be something fishy going on here. It'd be good to get more people's experience with this. Do note however that 5/400 prizes would be within the 99% confidence interval of a 3% prize rate. There's not much difference between 3 prizes -> 5 prizes.
its an archer dressed like a barb! b:shocked [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Chars:
CptMaggots 101 sage R8/NV Seeker
LovesTragedy 100 demon R8 Cleric
~Finally quit this god forsaken game~
Enjoy the rest of the downward spiral. See you in SWtOR b:bye0 -
Some friend on my server opens 3 packs a day , no matter what .
Another one said that there are only ( usually ) so much items given out per day on a server thus it's best to open at server reset .
I only opened a small number of packs ( prolly 100ish ) in my whole time on PWI and I've come out in - all the time .
While I know it's a small number of packs whenever I gambled on 'em I loose profit and whenever I just farm steadily all's good . But there's that damn temptation when you see some random lvl 8x that just started 1 month ago get rich in a few clicks .
Some say it's the location where they open them , the numbers they open at a time ( thought I found this to be the least trustworthy ) .
And just when I finally accepted the fact that it's all luck , seeing the same ppl get good items from packs all the time (and yes I ask how many packs they open and what they get from them ) and make a profit most of the time really makes me believe that there's a trick to it .It's all about LoL,yo.0 -
Aalpeculea - Sanctuary wrote: »Today, I bought around 400 tiger packs, and when I open them all. Guess what??? I only get 2 best of luck and one tiger mount!!!!
I opened 150 and got 3 best luck..0 -
Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »3 successes in a sample size of 400 packs gives you a 0.75% success rate with a +/- 0.20% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 95% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.55% - 0.95%). It gives a +/- 0.25% margin of error at a 99% confidence interval (i.e. there's a 99% chance the actual prize rate on the packs is 0.50% - 1.0%).
*blinks and stares with a blank gaze*TheMagicPimp - Raging Tide wrote: »Another one said that there are only ( usually ) so much items given out per day on a server thus it's best to open at server reset .
There are good and bad times to open. Usually around the 15 and 20 minute marks every hour.... x:15, :x20:x30:x45:x:00... Specific items turn up in general times... Scroll of Tome came out twice a little more than a week ago at the same time exactly 8 hours apart. It's still somewhat random, but the notion that there are good times and bad times to spam packs has pretty much been proven true by one of my friends who opens packs all the time.
Pay attention to the times you see small floods of red spam. Keep track of them. Then await those specific times, spam 10-20 packs during that time frame and stop. Don't just continue opening packs till they're gone because you'll most likely get nothing. Wait for the good times.
b:byeI post in forums. This one and others. That's why I post.0 -
Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »Statistics
You need to go breed with some Archers.0 -
KageYingZi - Heavens Tear wrote: »You need to go breed with some Archers.
I want to see the Winged Tiger soon.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Sorry i speak engrish b:chuckle
Nickname doesn't have anything to do with sailor but related to a folklore
Use search, it was your best friends to avoid many suffering in internet...0 -
MoonUsagi - Heavens Tear wrote: »I want to see the Winged Tiger soon.
You will have to die to do that or stay dead.Looking for a decent casual understanding Faction.0 -
MystiMonk - Sanctuary wrote: »You will have to die to do that or stay dead.
b:puzzled b:question[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Sorry i speak engrish b:chuckle
Nickname doesn't have anything to do with sailor but related to a folklore
Use search, it was your best friends to avoid many suffering in internet...0 -
Statistically you should not only get much more tokens of best luck than this but also about 4 items which are neither tokens of luck nor best luck if you buy 400 packs (there's about a 1.2% chance to get an item other than best lucks or luck tokens per 100 packs you open). And I bought 500 packs last time they were on sale. Same thing nothing but tokens and a few best lucks. There's like a 1 in 600 and something chance to open 500 packs and get only tokens. The fact that you've just done a similar thing makes me think that pack drop rates really aren't what they're stated as being. Personally I think they have variable rates. I mean statistics just don't work like this. If all packs had equal drop rates for all people you wouldn't get people regularly buying hundreds of packs and getting nothing. It should only happen once ever few hundred people that buy a large amounts of packs. But of course it still is possible to get these results even if pack rates are as stated. Highly unlikely, but possible xD But hey I love packs anyways, even if they do rip me off all the time, I'm not complaining lolz.0
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i dont see why ppl see getting pure tokens as a bad thing.....its good if u know wat to do. i typically try opening 10-20 packs per week depending on my cash situation. most the time i get tokens....but instead of QQ'ing about them i instead go turn them into skill books. trust me theres alot of skills that can easily come out to make u a hella lot of cash. just today i bought 20 packs....got nothing(go figure) so i was sitting with 300 tokens....well decided i would try doin a demon cleric book so go buy 150 more tokens to get 50 mystical pages...go make a demon cleric book...open it....and out pops a demon rez :O bam right there i got back the 9mil i spent on packs and tokens+ another 6-10mil.......thus proves my point getting all tokens can is also a very VERY good thing
If I sound like I hate you, please don't take it personally...chances are I actually do.0 -
Tric it's not about how useful tokens are, I use them for a lot of stuff myself. It's all about profit. You can buy tokens for waaaay cheaper than you can get them from buying packs. So if you want 15 tokens, buy them from a cat shop for 10k each. Thats only 150k instead of using gold to buy a pack. Which is 0.675 gold even when packs are on sale and you buy in groups of 50. Baring in mind that gold prices go up when packs are on sale t over 500k and token prices drop to below 10k. When packs are on sale you could sell gold at 500k each and but tokens for 9-10k. So if you buy a pack for a rate of 0.675 gold thats 337500 coins per pack. That's oppose to the 150k it would cost to buy these 15 tokens you get from a pack from a catshop. So if you want tokens to get rep to get rank 8. It would be almost double the price using packs to get tokens as appose to buying from other players. Thats a hell of a lot of money wasted.0
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Wait, OP spent over $200 on this game in one sitting?
What the hell?
Please tell me he bought them in-game with coins.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
hmm maybe my inital post was kinda off topic....im trying to go along the lines of yea getting all tokens suck but if u play ur cards right u can actually come out way ahead then when you started....best way i know how to put it....any1 get wat im trying to say and put it into better english?If I sound like I hate you, please don't take it personally...chances are I actually do.0
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Taiako - Dreamweaver wrote: »Wait, OP spent over $200 on this game in one sitting?
What the hell?
Please tell me he bought them in-game with coins.
Yesterday was something unseen before.
Messages about "Someone got Token of Best Luck' were one by one.
If you can get about 1 Token of Best Luck per 100 Packs, as I see from Token of Best Luck, then players opened about 100 Packs per minute sometimes.
Edit:
In any case player can open even 200 Packs and get just 15 tokens per pack. Exist chance only to get something valuable.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
I open packs only if I know I want to gamble and don't mind not to win anything (once in 4-5 month 100 packs).0
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