Satisfy your Tiger Pack addiction

135

Comments

  • buttercupcruella
    buttercupcruella Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Alphae - Lost City wrote: »
    I had to open 45,700 packs to get at least 1 of everything (Damn CoF stamp) b:surrender

    And I lost 1,503,912,500 coins

    This thing must be biased, then. The excel spreadsheet didn't want to give me a CoF for the longest. Spammed 45.6k packs (maybe you just clicked it 1 too many times before you noticed you got it?). Though my "profit" = -1,484,450,000. Still pretty close if you ask me...


    The one online gave me a CoF long time ago... but 10packs at a time is ... tedious...b:surrender
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  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Thanks for all the positive feedback. From reading your comments it looks like most of you had the same reaction to opening virtual Packs as I did! b:chuckle

    My record is 55,000 Packs before getting a Scroll of Tome.

    For those of you using the Zoho Sheet version I've made a change to the code to make it run faster.
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  • buttercupcruella
    buttercupcruella Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary wrote: »
    For those of you using the Zoho Sheet version I've made a change to the code to make it run faster.

    Nuuuuu.... It was taking time but I was getting there.b:chuckle
    I left for a while, came back to my open spreadsheet and boo-hoo... it doesn't work...
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  • Teny - Heavens Tear
    Teny - Heavens Tear Posts: 260 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    I made something like this a while ago, but I like your pictures.

    Also, it operates under the premise that the information is indeed accurate, i.e. the pack drop rates.

    Best Luck % seems to have been downgraded from 1.72 to 0.72 while regular tokens received the extra 1%, increasing them to 98.

    If you make this adjustment to the macro, you're given a more accurate representation of packs "nowadays", i.e. after they've been released so many times over.

    When they create a "new" kind of pack, i.e. something with a new name that has a purple colored title, you can assume the best luck drop rate is 1.72, the "white named" packs seem to have a .72 drop rate, hence why they're secretly left in the pack section of the boutique, they're intended as a money drain in the event that players want to open them because they gave lots of stuff in the past.

    edit: I'd also like to note that although Tigers still have a purple name, they've been around long enough so the above logic doesn't apply to them; it's quite obvious they were nerfed.
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  • Moog - Lost City
    Moog - Lost City Posts: 633 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    I have 250 packs ingame that im selling so I opened them in the simulator.

    Got 6 tokens best luck, 1 plat mp charm, and one cube stamp and the rest tokens.

    Profit was 25 mil. Thats pretty low profit considering I got really lucky on the cube stamp lol. Theres gonna be no mass opening of packs for me in the future >_>.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Not that it matters much but the garnet gem price is way too cheap.
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  • Michael_Dark - Lost City
    Michael_Dark - Lost City Posts: 9,091 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Not that it matters much but the garnet gem price is way too cheap.

    I mentioned that too... I think those are prices on his server though. Garnets are 16-18m here.
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  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Michael_Dark - Lost City wrote: »
    I mentioned that too... I think those are prices on his server though. Garnets are 16-18m here.

    It's my server too and we have the same price.
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  • Michael_Dark - Lost City
    Michael_Dark - Lost City Posts: 9,091 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    It's my server too and we have the same price.

    Oh, for some reason I thought he was on Dreamweaver... wow, serious brain **** on my behalf.

    /facepalm@myself
    I post in forums. This one and others. That's why I post.
  • LifeHunting - Lost City
    LifeHunting - Lost City Posts: 1,105 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    After opening over 600,000 packs I finally made a profit via a token of best luck.


    PWE Hates me b:cryb:cry
  • Solandri - Heavens Tear
    Solandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    buttercupcruella wrote: »
    Yea, I checked the formula.... I guess it might be wrong wording, or me being closed minded, because it's funny to see that the value of tokens in higher than the one of scroll of tome. Packs should cost less than 400k! Lower the cost of gold. Nao!b:angry
    Yeah, the "total value" column is the value of that prize weighted by the chance to get it. In other words, how much value that particular prize adds to the value of one pack on average. So although a scroll of tome is worth a lot, the chance to get one is so low that it doesn't add much value. Regular tokens aren't worth much, but the high chance to obtain them means they contribute a lot.

    When there's an item with a particularly high weighted value for a new pack, that means you're probably going to see the market value of that item drop. In general the market is pretty good about pricing these things relative to their beneficial value to your character versus your chance to obtain it from the pack. So when an item's weighted value in a pack spikes, it's a pretty good indicator that there's going to be an oversupply of them in the market as people open these packs.

    With tiger packs, that was the case for lunar wing trophies. Your chance to get one was significantly higher than previous packs, which caused its market value to drop to about half what it was with anniversary and coral packs. Even at half price, you can see that it still contributes a much larger weighted value than almost any other prize.

    The difference between the grand total value of the packs and their current market price is what you might call the "idiot tax". It's how overvalued the packs are, how much overhead people are willing to pay to gamble. Or to put it more nicely, it's the value of the hopes and dreams of anyone opening a pack, only to have those hopes dashed and replaced by 15 luck tokens.

    It's also interesting to note that the reputation of coral packs was so bad that the -25% sale on them barely budged their market price. On HT it actually became worth it (barely) to open them while that sale was going on. But with tiger packs, the demand has spiked the price of gold so much that it's nowhere near worth opening them.
  • KingThis - Heavens Tear
    KingThis - Heavens Tear Posts: 265 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    from 1,000 packs... only 10m profit... b:pleased
    usually it's 1,000 packs and no profit lol.
    zomg s0meThinG is WrOnG! b:bye
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  • nimh88
    nimh88 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    I want to thank this spreadsheet for curing my gambling habit. Not joking.

    Thanks!
  • Mumintroll - Heavens Tear
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Really great work.
    I surprised is still not erased by PWI. It's really warning for cash shoppers.
    Anyway nice repellent. b:chuckle
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  • ClericMD - Lost City
    ClericMD - Lost City Posts: 127 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Loool my luck suck open 11500 packs and get -536.487.500, thx god i never will buy that packs
  • LifeHunting - Lost City
    LifeHunting - Lost City Posts: 1,105 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    ClericMD: When you do what I did and just keep hitting the "Open 100 packs" button you'll learn easily how badly you will fail overall xD
  • Magic_Seeker - Sanctuary
    Magic_Seeker - Sanctuary Posts: 39 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    200 paks.. and made 175 mil .. b:cute nice tool.. Now give me my prizes.

    - But yes, overall it's bad for the ones spending real money . Simply Because it's a money making strategy for the company .. thusly it must work like so , even if remotelly looks like it's giving profits for the costumer.
  • jemima
    jemima Posts: 5 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Magic_Seeker - Sanctuary wrote: »
    200 paks.. and made 175 mil .. b:cute nice tool.. Now give me my prizes.

    - But yes, overall it's bad for the ones spending real money . Simply Because it's a money making strategy for the company .. thusly it must work like so , even if remotelly looks like it's giving profits for the costumer.

    That logic applies for a casino, where you spend and receive the same money. In this case however the company gets the money no matter which outcome. All they give away is virtual, and has worth only in their closed system.
    The main reason it works like so, is because prices stabilise to the perceived worth (in the case of gambling items such as this, generally slightly above the average return).
    If you overall made money from packs, people would buy gold to buy packs, until the price of gold rose enough to make it no longer profitable.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Not that it matters much but the garnet gem price is way too cheap.
    It looks to me like I may have mistyped and put the price of a Diamond of Dragon where the Garnet Gem was supposed to go and then just never noticed.

    The prices were mostly put in about a month ago and represent about a week's worth of spot-checking the cat-shops in West Archo. They could certainly be improved. I'll do some more checking sometime this weekend and update the prices accordingly, but more than likely the overall payout will remain roughly the same.
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  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    It really needs some duke shouts when you get something.
    Like...
    "Duke shouts: Let it be known that you have recently acquired Perfect Token of Best Luck"
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  • Yamiino - Heavens Tear
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,031 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    lol... 1000 packs:

    978 tokens
    7 perfect tokens of best luck
    8 platinum spirit charms
    2 platinum guardian charms
    1 sapphire gem
    1 flyer's legacy
    1 championship scroll
    1 blazing tempest
    1 primeval stone

    Profit: - 160.300.000


    b:chuckleb:chuckleb:chuckleb:chuckle
    WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.
  • Born_Free - Harshlands
    Born_Free - Harshlands Posts: 977 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Oh no....now the forum economy is gonna cash! 8O

    QQ stop spamming make-believe packs! QQ
  • MrVengeance - Sanctuary
    MrVengeance - Sanctuary Posts: 2 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Amazing its just like the real thing 200 packs all tokens!!!
  • Yamiino - Heavens Tear
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,031 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Yep, as I thought, took me 37k packs to get 1 scroll of tome, 2nd try was around 85k :P last item to drop always (since its the lowest % chance, though it takes so manyyy to get it xD)

    Lost hope on that part... I get LG a lot though 0.0 every 300 packs I get around 1-3 LG items :o !! SO it must be close to arrive ingame !!! b:pleasedb:pleased

    Not spending real money on packs non the less... im done with it.
    WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.
  • Fenian_I - Dreamweaver
    Fenian_I - Dreamweaver Posts: 91 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    nice... opened 2.2k packs... lost over 200m lmao
  • Yamiino - Heavens Tear
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,031 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    xP atleast it gives you an idea of "what would happen if..." or how many packs would you need to open to expect get x item. (gotta test it several times though)

    Nice one OP :] now I'm expecting a LG on the next 200 packs xP (real estimation b:chuckle)
    WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.
  • Segreta - Sanctuary
    Segreta - Sanctuary Posts: 291 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    lmao I opened my first 10 virtual packs and got a Lunar Weapon Insigna b:laugh
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  • Yamiino - Heavens Tear
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,031 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Segreta - Sanctuary wrote: »
    lmao I opened my first 10 virtual packs and got a Lunar Weapon Insigna b:laugh

    You shall change servers to HT and be in charge of opening my packs b:sadb:chuckle
    WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.
  • volst
    volst Posts: 180
    edited November 2010
    Yamiino - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    lol... 1000 packs:

    978 tokens
    7 perfect tokens of best luck
    8 platinum spirit charms
    2 platinum guardian charms
    1 sapphire gem
    1 flyer's legacy
    1 championship scroll
    1 blazing tempest
    1 primeval stone

    Profit: - 160.300.000


    b:chuckleb:chuckleb:chuckleb:chuckle
    More like a 72m loss to me.
  • KrittyCat - Dreamweaver
    KrittyCat - Dreamweaver Posts: 1,273 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Think he is referring to the fact that he didn't pay to open packs, but still got the same thrill. Just a guess...
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