Random drop glitch?

Aria_skye - Lost City
Aria_skye - Lost City Posts: 88 Arc User
edited March 2010 in General Discussion
Hello, I'd like to ask about a problem that I'm getting increasingly concerned about. My friend and I tend to duo alot however the treasure pool (as it says "random drops") however i'm growing increasingly concerned w/ the fact that it may not be so "random" as 85%-90% of our drops seem to go to me instead of the split occurring fairly; not just big drops, ALL drops. I'm not sure what could be calculated in to figure out who gets what but is it possible that there is indeed a glitch in the distribution system? My friend has also noticed this in a few other parties as have I.
Any light shed upon this issue would be extremely appreciated.
Post edited by Aria_skye - Lost City on
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Comments

  • MagicHamsta - Lost City
    MagicHamsta - Lost City Posts: 10,466 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    it be not random
    player levels and stuff have to do with some drops.
    certain drops be allocated to a specific person. (like say strong venom *the DQ drop* would almost always go to the person in the middle of the level range)
    b:bye

    although me hope they set the higher, more rarer drops to be random
    b:cold
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  • Aria_skye - Lost City
    Aria_skye - Lost City Posts: 88 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Problem w/ that is we're both same lvl and both venos
  • MagicHamsta - Lost City
    MagicHamsta - Lost City Posts: 10,466 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    did you mayhaps try alternating squad leaders?
    b:puzzled
    darthpanda16: Firefox crashed on me. Aryannamage: I don't think I am a GM that would be new.
    Hawk:Do this. closing thread
    frankieraye: I'll see if we can replace the woman with a stick figure and the tiger fangs with marshmallows.//Issues like these need to get escalated quickly to minimize the damage.
    Kantorek: Yeah.. you should try it. It's awesome.
    Sihndra: Nope- not currently possible under any circumstances. Sorry.
    LokisDottir: I mean...not haunting the forums, nope nope..
    Konariraiden: You don't know what you are up against. You will lose.
    Waiting for...Hamster Packs!
    58% chance to get tokens
    41% chance to get an all class pet hamster....but they has already been freed by the magic hamster.
    1% chance to get ban hamstered with the message "Hamsters United!"
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  • Aria_skye - Lost City
    Aria_skye - Lost City Posts: 88 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    That hasn't worked either; I've also tried alternating what I pick up
  • Sandaili - Dreamweaver
    Sandaili - Dreamweaver Posts: 119 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I think they really need to go with a real RANDOM arrangement here because no matter what, I'm a veno and I get 3 or four items, while everyone else gets all the loot. I have never recieved more than 5 items in three hours in bh's. Meanwhile, I can show screenshots of people getting dozens of items in a row. Random would mean random things every time not the same pattern every time for one player.

    Why is this implemented this way? Why am I getting less for doing the same thing that others are? Even when I am the tank, I don't get any more drops. It's disheartening.
  • SylenThunder - Twilight Temple
    SylenThunder - Twilight Temple Posts: 7,908
    edited February 2010
    I have a theory that the people that do more damage are more likely to get drops. I'm basing this on being a cleric, not DDing, and very rarely getting drops in instances. Yet if I do an instance where I can DD a lot, I get better drops.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Berys - Harshlands
    Berys - Harshlands Posts: 33 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Think this is a problem with anything "random". Anything on computers really isn't random, but rather corresponds to a very specific equation that was designed to make it seem random. While I know this doesn't really help solve this issue it is worth wile to note that it can sometimes be really hard to make it fair.

    My two bits on the problem: I've had some squads where I get nothing for ages and then out of the blue I'll get something really amazing. For example, in my Call to Duty quests for the Wraithgate I ended up getting the Tauran Chieftan mold and a helmet mold with both of them going to me when they were picked up. Then the next time I went for a bounty hunter quest I ended up getting the Dark Pants of Hades mold. Everything up until that had just been coin drops for this little cleric.

    What I'm trying to say is, don't get to discouraged. Who knows, maybe in the next few days you'll get something really amazing.
    Now you know, and knowing is half the battle.
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  • Mrvate - Heavens Tear
    Mrvate - Heavens Tear Posts: 406 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I have a theory that the people that do more damage are more likely to get drops. I'm basing this on being a cleric, not DDing, and very rarely getting drops in instances. Yet if I do an instance where I can DD a lot, I get better drops.

    As a cleric I tend to think this too, I usually get next to none of the drops if I don't do any dmg. but if I'm there as a DD, I tend to get alot more. It could just be luck or my mind playing with me. But I think random is semi-random/most dmg.
  • Estasi - Sanctuary
    Estasi - Sanctuary Posts: 109 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    If it is based on damage then Im screwed. As a veno with a herc there are times I have to spam heal my herc and not really have a chance to hit the boss with any spells. Personaly I would like to hear a GM's take on this. Maybe we are missing something.
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  • Chezedude - Dreamweaver
    Chezedude - Dreamweaver Posts: 236 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    it's obviously not based on damage since when I do worldbosses with a cleric. sometimes they end up getting all the good items and sometimes I do, but I did all the damage.
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  • Quilue - Sanctuary
    Quilue - Sanctuary Posts: 5,787 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    If you're squad grinding just split the drops afterwards i guess, this is easy to ask especially if your squad mate is a friend and there's nothing wrong with it.
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  • Mrvate - Heavens Tear
    Mrvate - Heavens Tear Posts: 406 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Chezedude - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    it's obviously not based on damage since when I do worldbosses with a cleric. sometimes they end up getting all the good items and sometimes I do, but I did all the damage.

    Not saying It's all based on dmg, but imo I think dmg definitely has a role in a formula (but also I'm not sure could just be my luck). and also they very well could not have very much of a separator as to what a good item is or not. Like a perfect garnet vs. perfect amber. both are perfect shards. but garnet is worth like 10x more.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Make a sheet and keep track of every single drop. Once you've got about 250-300 drops recorded, you can then see whether or not there's an actual bias or just a perceived bias.

    A big problem is reporting bias. People who have boring old even distributions pay little attention to it, and they generally don't go on forums posting about it either. But because things are random, there are always going to be a few people who either get a huge run of good luck or a huge run of bad luck, and they're the ones people take note of, remember, and post about on the forums.

    In the end, I doubt there's a glitch. But if there is it can be identified by keeping accurate records, although that's kinda tedious and dull to do.
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  • zoolandra
    zoolandra Posts: 1 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    it is easy to just split the loot after all is said and done....however when doing BH's and FB's wihtout wine there are a few of darkness stamps that drop and these can not be traded. I always do these quest with 1 person. Most of the time he gets the darkness stamp. I would say probably 85% of the time. I also do not like the fact that someone can put the loot on individual without the other people in the squad being alerted when joining. there should be a pop up telling the new squad members of the loot distribution. As a veno i am always healing my herc and never picking up items. When i do an FB for lower lvls and get dumped on like that it really makes me mad. b:chuckle
  • FruityMelons - Heavens Tear
    FruityMelons - Heavens Tear Posts: 74 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I've noticed this as well. And it hasn't been based no damage or anything like that.

    I run with a small group of people with the random 1-2 others that change as needed. Lately the cleric in the bunch tends to get 4 out of 5 darkness stamps. He'll get nothing in some runs except the stamps. During 2x he was getting 4 or 5 per run easy while no one or only one other would get only 1.

    I've been in runs with only 3 people and have seen 10-15 items drop from each boss on 2x and got maybe 1 item from 3 bosses like that.

    On the other hand, when I was playing my wizard more, I had a spurt where I was getting most of the stamps. One day on a 2x weekend a few months ago I ended up with 10+ stamps from 3 runs while others got only 1 or 2 between the rest of the group.

    As for random generation done by the computer. True random generation is possible with computers. There are numerous ways to achieve this. Some are elaborate that utilize photos taken of changing scenery, such as waves on the ocean, and then processing the image to generate random numbers...to simply using a high precision temp reading of the cpu as a random number generation root, a method that intel has developed and utilizes. MOST LIKELY PWI does not implement true random number generation...

    BUT... and speaking as a professional software developer, random number generation is random enough to simulate near perfect randomness. When dividing loot between 6 party members, I can very quickly write an algorithm to create tons of possible random placements.

    For instance, simply reading the timer of the computer clock could generate enough randomness to make the drop distribution feel perfectly random.

    Using a base of 6 I could read the timer to the millisecond giving me 1000 possible #'s every second. If the milliseconds read .001 then the drop goes to whoever is assigned 1. .002 then to #2... so and and so forth to .006.. then at .007, it reverts back to player 1 and so on. this would leave 4 milliseconds of unaccounted time with 166 possible groups of 6 for distribution.

    "Landing" on the remaining 4 milliseconds would simply result in another reading. If the party were 4 or 5 people, a 2nd reading would not be required as 1000 is divisible by those evenly...

    This would be totally random and quite simply... this would be TRUE or NEAR-TRUE random generation because of the human and internet factor. The randomness would be determined by when the human player decided to pick up the drop and the delay in time that it takes to process, send across the internet, process server side and choose by way of the timer.

    Enough geek stuff. This would be random enough method to ensure that no one would get 80+% of the drops on a regular basis.

    Aside from this... IF random drops are based on things such as damage or a class or level.. then it should not be called random. Random is random, and nothing else.
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  • FruityMelons - Heavens Tear
    FruityMelons - Heavens Tear Posts: 74 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    zoolandra wrote: »
    it is easy to just split the loot after all is said and done....however when doing BH's and FB's wihtout wine there are a few of darkness stamps that drop and these can not be traded. I always do these quest with 1 person. Most of the time he gets the darkness stamp. I would say probably 85% of the time. I also do not like the fact that someone can put the loot on individual without the other people in the squad being alerted when joining. there should be a pop up telling the new squad members of the loot distribution. As a veno i am always healing my herc and never picking up items. When i do an FB for lower lvls and get dumped on like that it really makes me mad. b:chuckle

    I agree with your point of not being alerted... ESPECIALLY... and this is hit or miss... when I was in a squad that was random distribution... I was, as squad leader, invited to squad with another person. This doesn't always work, but the person sends the invite and it says he wants to squad, and if you say yes, he added to your existing squad. Two hours ago, I added someone this way just fine and now I can't get it to work. Anyway, he was joined to my squad and became squad leader because he invited me. His squad settings were set on individual while my settings still read random. My squad settings continued to say random as well. I had no way of knowing they were individual until the issue came up that no one was getting drops but him because he was doing the looting... He told me it was on individual and mine clearly said random. And indeed, as soon as I picked up an item, it went only to me every time.

    I've also noticed that one can sometimes invite a member of a squad and the squad leader will get the invite.

    THIS IS AN EXPLOIT in my opinion and should be addressed by PWI. Either force notification every time a member is added and/or disallow people to invite those in squad.
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  • Solandri - Heavens Tear
    Solandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Everything I've seen with random loot distribution tells me it's random. There have been a few unusual incidents where it seemed non-random. But given how much loot I've picked up, a few unusual incidents are to be expected.

    The real problem is that what people think is random isn't really random. If you ask people to think of random numbers between 1 and 100, numbers ending in 7 and 3 will be more common, while even numbers and especially numbers ending in 0 and 5 will be rarer. Random doesn't mean fair or equal. Random means random. Occasionally a random sequence will go on unusual streaks. It wouldn't be random if it didn't.

    As for the level and damage theories, I can nix them pretty conclusively. I frequently drag a low level cleric alt behind me (a buff bot) on solo TT runs. She just follows my main and does no damage during a fight, maybe some healing. At the end of the TT she has always had roughly half the loot I've picked up.
  • FruityMelons - Heavens Tear
    FruityMelons - Heavens Tear Posts: 74 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Everything I've seen with random loot distribution tells me it's random. There have been a few unusual incidents where it seemed non-random. But given how much loot I've picked up, a few unusual incidents are to be expected.

    The real problem is that what people think is random isn't really random. If you ask people to think of random numbers between 1 and 100, numbers ending in 7 and 3 will be more common, while even numbers and especially numbers ending in 0 and 5 will be rarer. Random doesn't mean fair or equal. Random means random. Occasionally a random sequence will go on unusual streaks. It wouldn't be random if it didn't.

    As for the level and damage theories, I can nix them pretty conclusively. I frequently drag a low level cleric alt behind me (a buff bot) on solo TT runs. She just follows my main and does no damage during a fight, maybe some healing. At the end of the TT she has always had roughly half the loot I've picked up.

    Agreed, random is random... but asking a person to think of a random number and letting a computer do it are two different things. Human nature has no effect on a computer. My experience is that the "unusual streak" you speak of has extended across dozens of bh's and a few fb's. The one cleric dominating in receiving the stamps. It's not equivalent to rolling a 6 sided die and landing on 6 4 out of 5 times... which isn't impossible given enough tries, but landing on 6 40 out of 50 times has a chance of practically 0... When the same toon gets 4 out of 5 stamps every run for 10 runs... that's not just thinking it's not random...it's just NOT random. While computers can be bad at generating random things...it can't possibly be that bad.
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  • _Leiian_ - Heavens Tear
    _Leiian_ - Heavens Tear Posts: 206 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I think that's not really random.
    Or, if is really random, I need a demonstration.

    I've seen clerics just healing get more drops than me, healing herc and dding.
    I've tried to find a rule for it, cuz isnt random, but some ppl gets about more than 70% of drops.
    Maybe we need a fix. :)
  • Risingson - Lost City
    Risingson - Lost City Posts: 499 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Berys - Harshlands wrote: »
    Think this is a problem with anything "random". Anything on computers really isn't random, but rather corresponds to a very specific equation that was designed to make it seem random. While I know this doesn't really help solve this issue it is worth wile to note that it can sometimes be really hard to make it fair.

    My two bits on the problem: I've had some squads where I get nothing for ages and then out of the blue I'll get something really amazing. For example, in my Call to Duty quests for the Wraithgate I ended up getting the Tauran Chieftan mold and a helmet mold with both of them going to me when they were picked up. Then the next time I went for a bounty hunter quest I ended up getting the Dark Pants of Hades mold. Everything up until that had just been coin drops for this little cleric.

    What I'm trying to say is, don't get to discouraged. Who knows, maybe in the next few days you'll get something really amazing.

    I believe that random things like that on the Internet are based on a formula that pre-sets the drops, like the kind of formula online poker sites use to determinate what player gets what card and what the flop turn and river display. In that case at least, everything is randomly chosen before the hand starts. Maybe it is the same system for drops in PWI, although I doubt it.
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  • Fiery_Demon - Heavens Tear
    Fiery_Demon - Heavens Tear Posts: 230 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I once posted the same opinion on forums, that it isn't really random, and got loads of people saying that I was stupid noob who doesn't know anything, and the drops are always random. I still believe that they are not, and I'm glad that someone raised this topic again.

    It is very disturbing sometimes, especially in dungeons when I'm with a full squad. Worst part is that most of the times only 1 or 2 persons get good drops and the rest of the squad is left with pots, arrows and other useless stuff. Also, the drops tend to go to the people who are not doing something important anyways (not tanking or healing, sometimes they just run along or steal aggro and die). And a lot of those people aren't so kind either that they'd give some drops to those who worked their a**es off trying to keep them alive.

    I'm not sure if this is based on damage or levels, but I've noticed that it has to be based on something, as I don't get almost any drops during bhs, even when I do most of the tanking.

    It should really be rearranged, so that it isn't based on damage either but so, that the ones who work harder get more credit for it.
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  • Mumintroll - Heavens Tear
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I figure out, that in some squads I don't get anything(just arrows, pots, etc), but in another squad I get ~80%. I don't know if it depend of members of the squad or not, but I looking on it very often. On the beginning of BH I can tell you if I will get good drops or not. We need to just kill few mobs with drops.
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  • wtvdie
    wtvdie Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    ive been noticing this, it seems slightly based on how much cash is spent ingame. sounds stupid, but ive seen ppl who afk themselves in a corner get all the rare drops.
  • Starfire_sky - Heavens Tear
    Starfire_sky - Heavens Tear Posts: 19 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I really dont think this is random either. I've played cleric and veno pretty reg. 1 to 80 another to 73. alot of the time specially in instance runs like bhs i pick up maybe 1 drop in the entire run and thats with boss drops. i'm about 99% sure its no based on damage because i've started clearing sometimes and there is only 1 or 2 ppl with me that dont do anything just chill at the start and they get the drops even if i killed. I also think that the boxes for random/indivadual should be changed for all squad members because i was in a bh once that was set to indivadual but my squad page still said random.
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  • Solandri - Heavens Tear
    Solandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    FruityMelons - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Agreed, random is random... but asking a person to think of a random number and letting a computer do it are two different things. Human nature has no effect on a computer.
    Agreed, except that nobody here has posted actual numbers of exactly who got how many items from the random loot distribution for, say, an hour of play. All they've posted is that it "seems" not to be random, indicating they're comparing the computer's notion of random against human nature's notion of random. I'm pointing out that in that comparison, it's usually the human who is faulty.
    My experience is that the "unusual streak" you speak of has extended across dozens of bh's and a few fb's. The one cleric dominating in receiving the stamps. It's not equivalent to rolling a 6 sided die and landing on 6 4 out of 5 times... which isn't impossible given enough tries, but landing on 6 40 out of 50 times has a chance of practically 0... When the same toon gets 4 out of 5 stamps every run for 10 runs... that's not just thinking it's not random...it's just NOT random. While computers can be bad at generating random things...it can't possibly be that bad.
    This sort of thing is usually self-selection bias. It happens once and everyone remarks how unusual it is. Next time if it doesn't happen, everyone forgets it. If it happens again, everyone remembers it. After a few weeks of this, everyone has forgotten all the times when it was normal, and only remembers the unusual incidents, and are convinced that all the incidents were unusual. We already have significant self-selection bias in this thread because people who have seen unusual streaks (and with probably >100,000 hours played every day, there are lots of opportunities for unusual streaks) are more likely to read and reply to this thread.

    There's a pretty good scam based on this. The first week of the NFL season, the scammer sends out 8192 emails to random people. Half say Team A will beat Team B. The other half say Team B will beat Team A. Say Team A wins. The second week, he sends out another email, this time to the 4096 people he sent the correct prediction to. The 3rd week he sends out 2048 emails. After the 8th week, he's down to 32, but those 32 people are convinced that he's psychic because he's sent them 8 emails all correctly predicting the winner. He says he'll tell them the winner of the 9th week if they pay him $1000.

    Also, the human mind is great at noticing patterns. So even if it's random, one run they'll notice the DQ items were distributed unusually. Another run they'll notice the 3-star drops were distributed unusually. And another run they'll notice the potions were distributed unusually. The items which were distributed normally are quietly forgotten.

    If your data set is large enough, unusual patterns like this are normal. Random isn't fair, random isn't equal. Random is random. The larger your data set, the greater the chance of a short-term unusual sequence.

    Write down the stamp drop splits for every run for about 10 runs. See if the problem really is the random number generator, or if it's just your memory which is choosing to remember the unusual streaks.
    _Leiian_ - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    I think that's not really random.
    Or, if is really random, I need a demonstration.
    I can post a million data sets indicating it's random, but someone (maybe you) will say, "Well that's not what I'm seeing. I still think it's not random." and just ignore all my data.

    OTOH, it takes just one data set which is strongly non-random to prove that something is broken about the random loot distributor. So the burden of proof is upon the people who believe it is non-random to collect the data and prove it. You need to record how the drops were distributed to your group and show that it's non-random beyond a statistical 99% confidence interval one or a few times, or beyond a 95% confidence interval multiple times.
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    I figure out, that in some squads I don't get anything(just arrows, pots, etc), but in another squad I get ~80%. I don't know if it depend of members of the squad or not, but I looking on it very often. On the beginning of BH I can tell you if I will get good drops or not. We need to just kill few mobs with drops.
    That is random. If everyone got an equal share of the loot every time, that would actually be evidence that it wasn't random.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens Tear
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

    That is random. If everyone got an equal share of the loot every time, that would actually be evidence that it wasn't random.

    I don't think so. If I at start know that I don't get dropped gear it cannot be random, because I can predict it. And it true. In some squad at beginning I know that I don't get gear drops. I'm watching on this very carefully especially on 2x drops event. But when I'm in lucky squad(for me) I know that I will get huge amount of gear drop and mold with very high probability. My observation is based on many, many runs.
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  • Favu - Heavens Tear
    Favu - Heavens Tear Posts: 138 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I have a theory that the people that do more damage are more likely to get drops. I'm basing this on being a cleric, not DDing, and very rarely getting drops in instances. Yet if I do an instance where I can DD a lot, I get better drops.

    ^ Thiiiiis ~

    I play with my veno (tank) and pick up so much **** my inven fills up every time I do BH. I play with the cleric and I pick up like 2 DQ items and some arrows. Every. Single. Day.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • Katzyn - Sanctuary
    Katzyn - Sanctuary Posts: 1,270 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    I've been in squads where we had been killing for a while, and suddenly a new person gets added, and they start getting most of the drops (like the other night, our replacement cleric came, and started getting a lot of the drops, though she had just been added, and hadn't done any damage).

    I think it is random. Some days, on my veno, I get a lot of drops. Some days, I don't.

    When you and your friend duo, if you're really concerned about drops, just pool them together and split at the end. That's what my friend and I always did. Takes a tiny bit more time, to split stuff, but at least then you don't feel jipped of drops.
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  • Heartstone - Dreamweaver
    Heartstone - Dreamweaver Posts: 1,338 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Maybe a squad have xxxx amount of luck value for drops. when you enter a squad your given xxx amount of random lucky points from the pool. public quest work that way at end, can get 0 lucky or alot.. yea well just maybe,, it could explain sometimes nothing and sometimes alot..
    so with 2 in squad 1 person with luck could be lucky and get 80% lucky value maybe.. yea i dunno D:
    I'm sorry for misspelling / mistyping and grammar b:surrender

    102 - Archer - Heartz
  • Sangodoc - Dreamweaver
    Sangodoc - Dreamweaver Posts: 501 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Agreed, except that nobody here has posted actual numbers of exactly who got how many items from the random loot distribution for, say, an hour of play. All they've posted is that it "seems" not to be random, indicating they're comparing the computer's notion of random against human nature's notion of random. I'm pointing out that in that comparison, it's usually the human who is faulty.

    [snip a bunch of great logical reasoning]

    That is random. If everyone got an equal share of the loot every time, that would actually be evidence that it wasn't random.
    Wow. That is EXACTLY the kind of thing I was going to post in response to this thread. Thanks.

    There are lots of reasons why random may not seem "random" sometimes (you listed some above), so it takes hard data to determine if this is really random or not. The human mind is built to find patterns, so it may see "patterns" even in things that are truly random. Without statistically significant objective evidence, I don't see any reason to believe the drop distribution is not really random.

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