20+ Belial run and no ADS drops...

kruger
kruger Posts: 3 Arc User
edited June 2009 in General Discussion
i have run almost 20+ hh2-3 now for belial but not a single ancient devil's soul dropped before. can a gm explain please?
Post edited by kruger on

Comments

  • WitchBurner - Sanctuary
    WitchBurner - Sanctuary Posts: 1,394 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    GM's won't be back until tomorrow

    Also the drop rate is 1.11111111....%, run it 100 times then you can complain.
    Currently flying internet spaceships around dodixie, moving to amarr soon.

    Send me a mail if you wanna ask/request anything

    Sanctuary's retired king of wizards alongside queen Saintblu.
  • Devoted - Lost City
    Devoted - Lost City Posts: 3,634 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    malchanceux
  • Tearvalerin - Sanctuary
    Tearvalerin - Sanctuary Posts: 3,787 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    the drop rate is abyssmal, what makes you think youd get one so easily? there is no need for a gm explaination lol

    -note his name is Anceint Evil: Lethal Vengeance too o:.
  • Maiya - Lost City
    Maiya - Lost City Posts: 2,686 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    Pure chance. First time my party defeated Ancient Evil / Belial; we got the gold mat.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Aesthor - Heavens Tear
    Aesthor - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,845 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    What is there to explain? The developers (NOT THE GMS) made the drop rates. If you are not lucky enough to get a 1% drop in 20 runs, why would you go to a GM? That's like going to a casino and crying to the owner cuz you didn't get 777 in your first 5 slots or something.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    Ancient Evil drops 9 mats each with a 1% chance of being gold. Thats a little less than a 10% chance of seeing a gold drop. After 20+ runs you did get a little unlucky. Unfortunately your next run won't be more likely to drop gold than any of those 20. Damn probabilities of independent events.
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  • _Shalimar_ - Sanctuary
    _Shalimar_ - Sanctuary Posts: 129 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    Each time you kill Belial has a technical chance to drop the Soul at right about 10%.

    9 * 1.11111.... = 9.99999....

    Then, you have to figure in realism. I am pretty sure this game uses a RNG, which means you are not going to be guaranteed 1 Soul per 10 runs, or near there. You are probably going to have to kill Belial 30 or more times for 1 Soul drop.
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  • pervs
    pervs Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    kruger wrote: »
    i have run almost 20+ hh2-3 now for belial but not a single ancient devil's soul dropped before. can a gm explain please?

    You need to stop letting light armor barbs tank. Belial can notice failures and deem them unworthy of a GX.
    "you want 1by1 go play tekken la"
  • Terraa - Lost City
    Terraa - Lost City Posts: 172 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    _Shalimar_ - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Each time you kill Belial has a technical chance to drop the Soul at right about 10%.

    9 * 1.11111.... = 9.99999....

    Your math is a little wrong; the probability for an event to happen is calculated by its reciprocal; you have to calculate the chance for it *not* to happen, then subtract that value from 100%.

    Ancient Evil: Lethal Vengeance has a 1.11% chance of dropping ADS, with 3 drop rolls at 100% chance for 3 items to drop, for a total of 9 drops. Assuming that the tables aren't biased at all and each item has an equal chance to drop for each of those trials, we want to know the odds of one ADS dropping, which is calculated as:

    (1-.0111)^9 = 90.525% chance to not drop from any of those nine drops for one AE:LV kill, or 9.475% chance that it will.

    Let's kill him 20 times, for a total of 180 drops. We want to take the previous formula and just trade in '9' for '180', giving us:

    (1-.0111)^180 = 13.656% chance not to drop, or 86.344% chance that it will.

    However, 13.656% chance is still pretty high. One out of about seven times that you will kill AE:LV 20 times in a row, you will not get a drop, is what the math is saying. You're only looking at 1 out of 7, really; try another 20, the numbers are in your favor of it dropping, but 1/7 as anyone in the cube can tell you can happen constantly. Ask any level 60 who rolls 14s and 34s 9 times out of 4 romps in the cube (myself included!)
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • rukhmath
    rukhmath Posts: 2 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    I got one on my first run.

    That being said......haven't got one since.

    I put it down to just pure luck.
    No need for quotes anymore. Lost City's eyes are wide open now. Thank god!b:victory
  • Miss_Tika - Lost City
    Miss_Tika - Lost City Posts: 730 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    Here's a fresh breath of reality.

    WHY DO YOU THINK THE MAT IS WORTH SO ****ING MUCH!?!?!?

    QQmore and welcome to Gold farming.
  • Tearvalerin - Sanctuary
    Tearvalerin - Sanctuary Posts: 3,787 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    not like you need calloused lionhearts any ways :P. just make a skeleton axe and +12 it like wizzeled, youll be pro.
  • IceJazmin - Heavens Tear
    IceJazmin - Heavens Tear Posts: 4,206 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    Welcome to statistics :)
    Pick the right sample and you can prove anything you want.
    Too often we loose sight of life's simple pleasures. Remember, when someone annoys you, it takes 42 muscles in your face to frown, BUT, it only takes 4 muscles to extend your arm and slap that mother#$@%#^! upside the head.
  • CeliaZ - Sanctuary
    CeliaZ - Sanctuary Posts: 901 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    Tearvalerin - Sanctuary wrote: »
    not like you need calloused lionhearts any ways :P. just make a skeleton axe and +12 it like wizzeled, youll be pro.

    Little offtopic (sorry), but did that annoying wizzeled (sorry again:P) +12 his TT60? Is he out of his mind?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • _makina_ - Sanctuary
    _makina_ - Sanctuary Posts: 747 Arc User
    edited June 2009
    CeliaZ - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Little offtopic (sorry), but thit that annoying wizzeled (sorry again:P) +12 his TT60? Is he out of his mind?

    Yes........ b:bye

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