I'm trying to craft myself some decent rings and underwear, I have the 4 purple tools so allegedly 60% chance.
Rings/cloaks I'm 5/13
Underwear I'm on a streak of 8 straight failures to get the T3 result (about 3/14 overall), and the T2s are worthless.
PLEASE either implement some sort of streakbreaker, or allow the reprocessing of the T2 result to give you a chance of the T3 result.
It doesn't help that the correct T3 shirt doesn't come up that often in the rare recipes, so I'm sometimes having to wait 3 days between attempts.
A friend tried the 10% chance of upgrading something with preservation wards, the 53 he had were not enough, took him something like 57 in the end, and I've gone well over 20 attempts on a 25 or 30% chance more than once. Streakbreaker needed there too.
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A friend tried the 10% chance of upgrading something with preservation wards, the 53 he had were not enough, took him something like 57 in the end, and I've gone well over 20 attempts on a 25 or 30% chance more than once. Streakbreaker needed there too.
For this there is, it's called Coalescent Ward... ...guaranteed bling-bling.
You do realize that % chance to success which you see on your screen might not be the real %? They could show us false info to make players burn more stuff and then just make us think it's "bad luck".
lol join the club. I burned 12 pres wards trying two 60% chance the other day.
one time I failed opening a skill node 7 times in a row, it's supposed to be 75% chance.
seven freakin times. the odds of that are like 17,000:1
bad pw programmers are bad.
If 17,000 nodes are opened, 1 person will take 7 tries before succeeding and that person was in this case you. It's like winning the lottery - the chances of winning are very low, but (depending on the ticket amounts) within a month, chances are that at least 1 person has won it, because a 1 in a 17,000 chance doesn't mean that all tickets are duds, it means that 1 out of 17,000 tickets isn't a dud and given enough time someone will find that ticket.
Not to say that I don't think that the game is showing false information, the amount of users complaining about their streaks of bad luck is sowing the doubt in my mind, but the complaints of a few people doesn't equal an accurate view of the actual probability. A test should be done, opening thousands of nodes/performing thousands of tasks and recording the success rate of each one, before we can actually say that any percentage is wrong.
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aulduronMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,351Arc User
edited June 2015
How may times have you succeeded something on the first try?
How may times have you succeeded something on the first try?
I sometimes wonder about success rates when things aren't going my way, then the above is exactly what happens. People focus on the poor results and quickly forget the good luck. Human nature.
Human nature is to not understand statistics. In this particular case tho, it appears that the programmers are the ones that do not understand how statistics work, as success percentages listed for combines are either wildly wrong, or deliberately false/misleading. "Proper" coding to match the listed values would give every single combine event the chance to succeed that is listed; this is demonstrably not the case. There's a fair chance that the RNG being used is poorly implemented, giving a net-success-over-time percentage equal to the stated value, but that's simply not the same as each individual event having that probability, which is what the labels infer.
Given the streakyness of the results, it's a fair bet that the RNG isn't actually random at all at the event level, but instead has a strongly time based component which might even result in an "overall" average that IS the listed value. And it might not even be just time based... knowledge of such interaction(s) could be absurdly lucrative, obviously...
I sold most of my purple crafting assets in mod 5, because the 60% reported was a complete joke.
Was worth more to sell the mats instead of regularly failing 3 - 5 times in a row or more on a 60% chance of success.
Regarding enchant upgrades, there have been extremely few times I ever got it on the first try (or even the first 3). There have been far far far more times that I have burnt through 20+ green wards for a 10% chance (including burning through more than 40 on quite a few). I generally wont even waste time trying to do a 10% upgrade if I don't have more than 20 green wards.
Regarding enchant upgrades, there have been extremely few times I ever got it on the first try (or even the first 3). There have been far far far more times that I have burnt through 20+ green wards for a 10% chance (including burning through more than 40 on quite a few). I generally wont even waste time trying to do a 10% upgrade if I don't have more than 20 green wards.
Got a 10% chance upgrade yesterday and only 4 green wards. After success i hold the same 4 wards in hands..
You do realize that % chance to success which you see on your screen might not be the real %? They could show us false info to make players burn more stuff and then just make us think it's "bad luck".
Are you saying they forgot to update the tooltip, like the Dragon Hoard Enchants
Comments
For this there is, it's called Coalescent Ward... ...guaranteed bling-bling.
one time I failed opening a skill node 7 times in a row, it's supposed to be 75% chance.
seven freakin times. the odds of that are like 17,000:1
bad pw programmers are bad.
Not to say that I don't think that the game is showing false information, the amount of users complaining about their streaks of bad luck is sowing the doubt in my mind, but the complaints of a few people doesn't equal an accurate view of the actual probability. A test should be done, opening thousands of nodes/performing thousands of tasks and recording the success rate of each one, before we can actually say that any percentage is wrong.
I sometimes wonder about success rates when things aren't going my way, then the above is exactly what happens. People focus on the poor results and quickly forget the good luck. Human nature.
Given the streakyness of the results, it's a fair bet that the RNG isn't actually random at all at the event level, but instead has a strongly time based component which might even result in an "overall" average that IS the listed value. And it might not even be just time based... knowledge of such interaction(s) could be absurdly lucrative, obviously...
Was worth more to sell the mats instead of regularly failing 3 - 5 times in a row or more on a 60% chance of success.
Regarding enchant upgrades, there have been extremely few times I ever got it on the first try (or even the first 3). There have been far far far more times that I have burnt through 20+ green wards for a 10% chance (including burning through more than 40 on quite a few). I generally wont even waste time trying to do a 10% upgrade if I don't have more than 20 green wards.
Got a 10% chance upgrade yesterday and only 4 green wards. After success i hold the same 4 wards in hands..
Are you saying they forgot to update the tooltip, like the Dragon Hoard Enchants