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AD exchange 4-28-15
codher0
Member Posts: 149 Arc User
Have you guys seen the price for zen theses days? it hit 160. Do you think it will go down? How much do you think?
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Not for a few days. Double AD weekend put more AD in market, if Zen stayed the same price goes up. AD can get generated out of thin air, Zen only enters the game when cash is spent.
if you dam ppl would quit selling ur zen so cheap that would be nice would like to see it hit 300+
I see lockboxes as neutral - sure, some people will be trading diamonds for zen, trying to get keys - but smarter players will be trading zen for diamonds to buy the items off the auction house outright. Over all it balances out.
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backlog? Can you explain? I'm trying to understand this more
But Raw Diamonds are not the same as refined diamonds. You can't do anything with raw ones, they are only useful when refined.
To avoid crazy inflation inside the game's economy, PW has made it so each character can only refine 24,000 Diamonds a day. This means they can control the influx of diamonds into the game and we don't end up paying 500ad for 1zen, or paying overly large amounts at the auction house.
When I talk about a backlog of raw diamonds, I mean that it would take four days to convert my raw diamonds into useable currency. During that time I'll still be getting new raw diamonds, so it'll likely be more than a week for me to get back to having 0 raw diamonds. I assume other people are in the same position, as I'm not really a hard-core player.
So over the next week we can expect a large number of the community to be handling a huge number of diamonds, which is likely to have the following effects:
* Prices in the auction house should go up, as players have more diamonds to bid with.
* The cost of Zen should continue to rise, as players seek to convert that pile of diamonds into zen.
Once people have worked through and cleared that backlog, we'll be back to having to earn diamonds each day (rather than have them waiting for us), so the auction house prices should come back down and the zen price should drop back a little.
Having said that, it's worth nothing that astral diamonds will be stockpiled long-term, as people can earn them for free... over time the diamonds in the economy will increase and the price of Zen will rise as it becomes the rarer commodity.
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Let me tell you guys somethin...if you invest around 25 k zen...sell low and buy high... you will be rich
Wishful thinking. Once the economy is drowning in AD you won't be able to buy Zen for anything less than 500 AD/Z, just like on PC. Good luck!
Gamertag: ReallyRecon
Do you really think that will happen on xbox?
just give it time and eventuaaly it will probably be up there remember pc version has benn out longer
Zen will always get more expensive just like on the PC... The only factor slowing it down is its harder to bot the gateway/runs so you just have to deal with manual farmers or more complex rigs.
Yea, I farmed character generation during the double AD for over 300k AD, (Refined) Simply by messing with salvage and refining caps I managed to earn over 2.5k ZEN just from doing that as well as my normal professions and such.
So the refining cap (Assuming there was other people doing the same) really did not do much to the amount that people got zen from the double AD event.
I'm not hoping they go up at all, I'm just pointing out that it's naive to think they won't. The law of supply and demand is a pretty simple thing to understand.
Gamertag: ReallyRecon
Regardless, while the amount of AD in the world will continue to increase over time, Zen prices don't have to go up. Unless Cryptic/PW are controlling the buy/sell prices on the exchange (see below), the population can keep Zen prices low by simply refusing to post any buy listing for more than 140 AD. That would keep the Zen price low regardless of AD inflation elsewhere in the market, which would serve to benefit all players since more AD in the market along with low Zen prices means it gets easier and easier to get Zen for free.
Of course, this won't happen because people are impatient and/or aren't willing (or don't know how) to game the market to their advantage. Still, if enough people flat-out refused to buy above a certain price, Zen prices will not rise very quickly (if at all), assuming we actually influence the buy/sell prices on the exchange.
Then again... it may not matter at all what we do...
One theory a friend and I have been discussing is that we never buy from or sell to players in the Astral Diamond Exchange. Rather, Cryptic/PW are brokers and players only ever buy from or sell to them. When you sell in this model, which has to be at a price equal to or less than the highest price listed on the Sell Zen page, you are basically giving Zen you paid for back to them and removing it from the world (i.e. it's a Zen sink/free money for them). When you buy, which has to be at a price equal to or greater than the lowest price listed on the Buy Zen page, you are removing AD from the world and getting Zen directly from Cryptic/PW (i.e. an AD sink). Also, the amount of AD or Zen held in all the various exchange accounts is effectively out of play. This model gives Cryptic/PW (not the players) complete control of the economy by allowing them to establish the buy and sell prices for both Zen and AD according to their own needs, which in turn allows them to directly influence prices on the AH and, ultimately, the profit margin in the Zen Store.
I hope my theory is incorrect and it's the players that control pricing and Cryptic/PW are relying on us to be impatient and undervalue AD in the long term. At least then we have a shot at keeping things in our favor.
The reality is no mater what you think you should be getting, the market will decide.
And for what it's worth, I don't think that Crypric/PW would mind the AD to Zen cost being low. There are plenty of things that we need AD for... scrolls, keys, the auction house, etc.... as long as there is clear advantage to having AD, impatient people will be willing to buy AD using Zen. A weak ad/zen rate just means those impatient people are paying MORE zen for their AD - a win for PW.
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Oh, how wonderful that would be! Having lots of AD in the world to drive up AH prices while colluding with each other to keep the Zen price low is a dream scenario -- it's the absolute best way to inflate the currency. People make more per AH sale, which can then buy more Zen. It's almost paradoxical! It's like if the Mexican Peso traded in Mexico like it does IRL, but spent in the US like a US Dollar.
But ultimately, you're right. The market won't work that way because not enough people would participate in the collusion, either out of impatience, laziness, or more money than sense.
Cold fact is that there isn't actually lots on the Zen store. Vanity items, funny looking mounts and a few companions. Once you have the dragonborn race, any one mount and a few character slots, you're about done. The real good stuff, like rare mounts, epic items, artifacts and enchantments are all in the auction house. It wouldn't take long to 'tap out' the zen store, after which (if the zen to ad ratio was low) there would be no other reason to buy zen.
And if no one is buying Zen, no one is exchanging Zen. The market would stagnate and there would be no path to get zen for F2Pers who want Zen without cash.
Join us brothers and sisters and distant relations and confused onlookers.
Join us in the shadows where we stand mostly vigilant... although slightly distracted by our inventories.
"In war, unqualified. In peace, disorganised. In death, mild irritation."
JOIN US.
Um.. Yeah it would. supply vs demand. if theres a low supply but high demand. people will eventually raise their offers. what if all the zen sellers decide they wont sell for under 200 ad per 1? There's less zen than AD. so people will start acceptin the higher price.
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