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Valindra's Tower ( VT 1/2 ) - Loot table change - no epics

durandal112durandal112 Member Posts: 106 Arc User
edited April 2014 in PvE Discussion
Was the loot table changed on VT 1/2 yesterday?

We did 17 runs and only got 1 (-one-!) epic drop, which was a seal.
No weapon parts or other epics.

Normally the epic drop rate is about 50%. Chances of this event occurring is 1 in 131072.
I don't believe in that.

What's up with that? Anyone else experiencing this?
Post edited by durandal112 on

Comments

  • abaddon523abaddon523 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    Did VT yesterday twice. Shatterspine dropped a weapon part on the first run and Blades of the Forest Warden on the second. Not a big sample size, but no I did not experience the same thing.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • iambecks1iambecks1 Member Posts: 4,044 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    durandal112 wrote: »

    Normally the epic drop rate is about 50%. Chances of this event occurring is 1 in 131072.
    I don't believe in that.

    My advice is to tell the people you ran with not to bother doing the lottery this week :3
    YourSecretsAreOurSecrets.gif
  • farla47farla47 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 149 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    It took me 3 months and countless runs (1/2) to get my (GWF) offhand. So yeah, it's not a lucky place.
    (almost)All my friends are Imaginary!
  • dragmoshdragmosh Member Posts: 10 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    durandal112 wrote: »
    Was the loot table changed on VT 1/2 yesterday?

    We did 17 runs and only got 1 (-one-!) epic drop, which was a seal.
    No weapon parts or other epics.

    Normally the epic drop rate is about 50%. Chances of this event occurring is 1 in 131072.
    I don't believe in that.

    What's up with that? Anyone else experiencing this?

    It's actually a 1 in 7710 chance, or a 17 in 131072.

    Edit: You should really be calculating the chances of getting at most 1 drop, rather than exactly 1 drop, which would give you 18 in 131072.
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited April 2014
    This content has been removed.
  • suckmythumbsuckmythumb Member Posts: 7 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    durandal112 wrote: »
    drop chance is 50% per run. (it drops, or it doesnt :D - j/k )

    chance it doesnt drop on a given run is 50%, or 0.5, or 1/(2^1).
    -> Chance it doesnt drop on 16 runs is (1/(2^1))^16 = 1/(2^16)

    chance it does drop on 1 run is (also) 1/(2^1)

    -> chance it drops on just 1 run and not on the other 16 (of a total of 17 runs) =
    ( 1/(2^1) ) x ( 1/(2^16) ) = 1/(2^17) = 1 / 131072

    Don't know where you get that 17 (in 17/131072)? (then again, im not too bright at 4am..)

    Any event (17 epics drop at 17 runs, 16 epics drops in 17 runs [in 17 combinations] etc). 15 epics in 17 runs [17*8]) is just as possible, its probability is 1/(2^17). So you have 17 runs. The probability of getting nothing is 1/131072, as you can't possibly have more than one combination. But when you have one epic, it could drop on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd...17th try, thus giving you 17 possibilities. Add it and you have 18/131072.

    17/131072 for getting one epic in one of 17 runs (as you can put that event in 17 places)
    1/131072 for getting no epic in those 17 runs.
  • frishterfrishter Member Posts: 3,522 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    Not sure I believe in the drop rate being 50%.
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