AD exchange rate predictions

peanutmchoho · May 2013

Hey, what with the douple AD weekend, I'm getting quite a few ADs. I'm debating whether to spend them now or later, because the rate is around 395 to 1 right now. Do you think zen will become cheaper or more expensive after the weekend?

saintavalon · May 2013

If Guild Wars 2 is any indication, buy now. The price increased dramatically over the launch of Guild Wars 2 and I was lucky that I did the currency exchange early on.

There will always be fluctuations based on supply and demand, and you can always check them, frequently too. But I wouldn't hold out too long, the price is likely to go up not down in the long term.

zahinder · May 2013

On the other hand, in STO, price dropped from 300 to 100 over ... two years?

jonnyreg · May 2013

zahinder wrote: »

On the other hand, in STO, price dropped from 300 to 100 over ... two years?

Isn't STO kinda different though? STO has a subscription option that gives out points each month. NW won't have that flood of extra unused points. Seems to me the prices in NW will only increase with time as any ZEN will have to come straight from direct purchase.

elessym · May 2013

Actually it only took about a year. It's back up to ~140 right now though.

If STO is any guide, a weekend event like this won't have any long-term impact.

taneras · May 2013

I personally don't think this one weekend will have a huge effect on zen:AD prices. And change shouldn't be too much. If it swings too far one way people will take advantage of it and it'll correct itself.

xyceres · May 2013

Remember that founders packs gave lots of AD which would help flood the early market making them worth less. however on a daily basis you only get a few thousand easily (with an effective cap at 24k per day). Taking that into account I think over time we'll see the supply slowly lower (due to listing fees, players leaving, the odd in game AD purchase and the cap on getting them) which will eventually give them a better conversion rate.

if you think of it as 1k AD an hour as the max rate you'll notice that corresponds to about 2.5 zen which is 2.5c. I don't know about you guys but i've never seen an in game currency to cash shop currency exchange rate that was so low.

chronomancer · May 2013

The game already has adequate AD sink so that AD will be in constant demand. Zen will be for fluff and cash shop items. In the long term I can see both currency evening out at around 100-200: 1 (10,000-20,000 AD to 100 zen).

zahinder · May 2013

jonnyreg wrote: »

Isn't STO kinda different though? STO has a subscription option that gives out points each month. NW won't have that flood of extra unused points. Seems to me the prices in NW will only increase with time as any ZEN will have to come straight from direct purchase.

Uh, that suggests the AD exchange will drop -- as AD supply dries up, people won't pay as much for zen.

stormdrag0n · May 2013

I expect a surge in a few months then it will level about to about 400 to 1.

chronomancer · May 2013

I don't think it will maintain 400:1 ratio. It's only going at that rate because all the founders are flush with AD. Eventually it will settle down a lower rate when people starts buying the big in-game AD items. It's easier to shell out $10 bucks rather than farm up 400,000 AD.

zahinder · May 2013

Personally, I almost wish I had cash to bankroll... buy a bunch of Zen, buy a crud load of AD, and wait ...

AD exchange rate predictions

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