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rng how do you figure this works?
kerare
Member Posts: 5 Arc User
item to upgrade with a 10% chance with 119 wards used to attempt= ending in failure and still counting( if get any in game will personally never buy this useless items again) thats been on 2 characters since last update and the worst rng rate ever. so hows player progression working out for you?
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I have had a 1st try success on a 5% and used up 41 wards on a 10%
Everyone will tell you that on a losing streak, [on 10% if you use up say 15 with no success] take a break move maps and try again.
Many people go to the least populated map to try as they believe it gives a more equal % chance.
Frankly if you find RNG frustrating then MMOs arent going to be great for you
Rank up multiple enchants not just single one.
Dead🔪From your perspective, you are a fixed individual, and the probability that a 10% chance should lose 119 times in a row is (0.9)^119 ≈ 3.5e-6. You should be very, very suspicious. This is well beyond any reasonable measure of significance.
However, from our perspective, there is nothing special about you, and you are not fixed. We are discussing this precisely because the event led you to come to the forum, so we are selecting for unusual and interesting things to begin with. Since there are millions of item upgrade attempts among all the players of the game, we expect this to happen at least sometimes, and those people will probably complain about it on the forum. If each person has an independent probability of (0.9)^119 of experiencing your bad luck and there are 1,000,000 item upgrade trials, then there is a 1 - (1 - (0.9)^119)^1000000 ≈ 97.2% chance that at least one person will experience this, so seeing someone complain about such an unlikely event is quite reasonable and not out of the ordinary. We should not be suspicious at all.
And that is how I figure this works.