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More evidence that Forgehammer doesn't work in Mastercraft tasks
ontheleftcoast
Member Posts: 120 Arc User
For several weeks I've noticed poor rates of success with my Forgehammer. However, I was told to chalk this up to the fact most of what I was using it for was the new Tier II tasks with low percentage chances of success. But a few weeks ago I had completed a few of the Tier II missions and finally decided to start mass producing items for sale in the AH and I began keeping running totals of my success rates with, and without, the Forgehammer.
On the toon Magrath Kinslayer I unlocked Weaponsmithing Tier II and create Adamant Blooms. Out of 28 attempts 17 yielded blooms, 17/28 = 60.7% pretty much what you'd expect.
On the toon Varis Trollbane I've unlocked Alchemy, Artificing, Jewelcrafting, Mailsmithing, and Weaponsmithing. Out of 64 attempts without the Forgehammer 37 succeeded, 37/64 = 57.8% a bit low but totally inline with the sample size. But with the 64 attemps WITH the Forgehammer only 38 succeeded. That's right, only 1 more success in 64 tries. The success rate WITH the Mythic Forgehammer was 38/64 = 59.4% basically the same as the two other rates without it. Despite telling me the success rate will be 75% it is not even close to it in any way, shape, or form.
Furthermore, when combined with the nearly 100 samples I took trying to create gold nuggets I now have over 160 documented attempts of crafting with the Mything Forgehammer of Gond and it has *NEVER* yielded an improved result over not using it.
Cryptic, this is very badly broken. Will you please take a look at this? If not, why not?
On the toon Magrath Kinslayer I unlocked Weaponsmithing Tier II and create Adamant Blooms. Out of 28 attempts 17 yielded blooms, 17/28 = 60.7% pretty much what you'd expect.
On the toon Varis Trollbane I've unlocked Alchemy, Artificing, Jewelcrafting, Mailsmithing, and Weaponsmithing. Out of 64 attempts without the Forgehammer 37 succeeded, 37/64 = 57.8% a bit low but totally inline with the sample size. But with the 64 attemps WITH the Forgehammer only 38 succeeded. That's right, only 1 more success in 64 tries. The success rate WITH the Mythic Forgehammer was 38/64 = 59.4% basically the same as the two other rates without it. Despite telling me the success rate will be 75% it is not even close to it in any way, shape, or form.
Furthermore, when combined with the nearly 100 samples I took trying to create gold nuggets I now have over 160 documented attempts of crafting with the Mything Forgehammer of Gond and it has *NEVER* yielded an improved result over not using it.
Cryptic, this is very badly broken. Will you please take a look at this? If not, why not?
2
Comments
Sometimes, you'll see people mention that they blew through a stack of preservation wards for a 10% upgrade chance. They're less likely to advertise the times it took a handful of wards for the same attempt. Same thing.
I have paid attention and recorded samples of a few hundred rolls on multiple occasions since open beta, and am convinced that the RNG is fair in the long run. Some software random number generators are known to be streaky. I don't have evidence one way or the other whether that's the case in Neverwinter.
It sucks to be on the wrong side of the probability distribution. In the long run, it will even out.
Sci-fi author: The Gods We Make, The Gods We Seek, and Ji-min
which is why you see so many high geared toons popping into helms hold etc where its easy to find an instance that has a low population.Master crafters especially as well as people refining.
Likewise you get a better success when you first log in ,and immediately after the server resets.
After years of playing my sample size is HUGE and shows the same thing RNG is broken,
!!!forgehammer and legendary assets with 95% success still fails 25% of the time!!!
Blood Magic (RELEASED) - NW-DUU2P7HCO
Children of the Fey (RELEASED) - NW-DKSSAPFPF
Buried Under Blacklake (WIP) - NW-DEDV2PAEP
The Redcap Rebels (WIP) - NW-DO23AFHFH
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I would back this request to see the actual RNG roll, an older Cryptic game CoH allowed you to see this if you wanted to. It would not surprise me at all if they used the same RNG and that one was broken as hell (75% hit chance missing 20+ times in a row 6 times in a week where it wasn't forced to hit by the streakbreaker which the logs told you about for example).
Beyond about 40 you can use the normal distribution to approximate to the binomial and you can say that the result lies outside the 95% confidence interval for the mean very easily. Once this happens repeatedly in the same direction something is not right.
Funnily enough the RNG had been behaving reasonably OK for me until last night on upgrading enchants when I did some mastercrafting with a forgehammer, and I only went 10 out of 16 at 75%. That is too small a sample on which to draw conclusions, but the same behaviour as experienced above.