WARDS

asa · January 2018

71 wards without upgrade on a 5% chance is crazy ... it happens way to often n is a rip off

kreatyve · January 2018

These threads popup from time to time, and every time, it's because people do not understand how the RNG works. You have a 5% chance each time. It doesn't add up every time. And even if it did, 5% chance would mean it would take up to 95 wards. But still, the RNG just doesn't like you right now. Try again later?

zanaspus1 · January 2018

Consider the alternative. Statistics tells us there is a non-zero probability of going through, say, 500 wards without success.

callumf · January 2018

asa#5821 said:
71 wards without upgrade on a 5% chance is crazy ... it happens way to often n is a rip off

It isnt a rip off BUT it is very frustrating. Recently I had tracked my upgrades of 10% and 20% and they are pretty much all spot on.

However, I did waste 33 wards on a 10% chance which is the ONE memorable upgrade fail.

Basically if I really want an upgrade to work at 10% or less I use a Coalescent Ward as I cant stand the constant failing, especially at 5%

reg1981 · January 2018

Refining on a small scale sucks, trying to bring one enchantment up to rank 12 can seem poison. When you sit to make 10 Rank 12s I tend to see better results.

Because of my experience there I tend to save marks and wards for a while before starting to refine, then doing it on a larger scale. Sometimes that means saving them for a few months before starting to refine again.

therealprotex · January 2018

kreatyve said:
These threads popup from time to time, and every time, it's because people do not understand how the RNG works. You have a 5% chance each time. It doesn't add up every time. And even if it did, 5% chance would mean it would take up to 95 wards. But still, the RNG just doesn't like you right now. Try again later?

If it added up, you'd need only 20 wards to get to 100%, not 95. /smart HAMSTER mode off/

@asa
If I calculated correctly, the chance to get 70 fails in a row with a 5% chance for each try is 2.75%. That it happened to you it bad luck, but it does not seem impossible that it happens at all.

Hamster filter manually applied by moderator who openly admits that she can't math.

strathkin · January 2018

therealprotex said:

kreatyve said:
These threads popup from time to time, and every time, it's because people do not understand how the RNG works. You have a 5% chance each time. It doesn't add up every time. And even if it did, 5% chance would mean it would take up to 95 wards. But still, the RNG just doesn't like you right now. Try again later?
If it added up, you'd need only 20 wards to get to 100%, not 95. /smart HAMSTER mode off/

If I calculated correctly, the chance to get 70 fails in a row with a 5% chance for each try is 2.75%. That it happened to you it bad luck, but it does not seem impossible that it happens at all.

Hamster filter manually applied by moderator who openly admits that she can't math.

Yea your math looks pretty good - I'm assuming your using the formulae as follows.

1- ( ( 1-0.05 [drop chance or 5%] ) ^71 [attempts] ) = 0.0262 or 2.62% based on 71 attempts as he said he failed 71 times.

^ represents a square root (x with upper y symbol) on scientific calculator.

If I did it based on 70 attempts you'd get 2.75% whereas 71 gives 2.62% chance of failure still very unlucky.

--
NOTE: The following webpage has a article explaining how best to decide when or where it makes sense or is cheaper regardless if you use Astral Diamonds or ZEN to buy your Coal Ward as opposed to Preservation Wards. Hopefully this will allow some players to weight the cost / (risk:benefit) impact better. As @kreatyve indicated it is a 5% chance every time and they don't add up; they indicated it could take up to 95 wards - but technically still have a 8/10th of 1% chance of failure or 0.0076514281153818492.

You need to weight when it makes sense buying 10 Preservation Wards for 100 ZEN and hope with 30 you get lucky with 5% chance cause you could need as many as 100 but it's quite unlikely. Still if upgrade chance is <5% a Coal Ward for 1000 ZEN makes things quite easy. Technically there is only a 21.5% chance to being successful using 30 Preservation Ward's at the 5% upgrade chance; but if they are character / account bound wards and there is nothing else with a higher chance you want or need upgraded just be aware of your odds.

https://www.engadget.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/

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