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ADX thoughts...
thefiresidecat
Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User
so I understand (and expected it to rise) over this weekend. but why isn't it falling? any ideas? just hold outs doing the last bits of upgrading causing the market to remain steady and even rise a little? some news I've not heard?
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before the 2x refne started it was only at like 140 something. and that was with the effects of the last 2x ad.
Outside game factors could be college starting up for players right now and thus less time and $$ for the game.
For those parents that play like myself I know school is starting up for children. Meaning less $$ adults with kids put into the game.
The PS4 build of the game needs work so there are potentially more factors that haven't been reported that are affecting it too.
It could be possible many people are worried it's not going to go down bc of what PC and XBOX players have said. Thus buying now to save later. I see this on the neverwinter reddit a lot.
it rose with 2x refine. it's directly related to that somehow.
Shyuuga's thought process makes more sense here. it might also just be less people playing because of the weekend and there seem to be ddos attacks affecting playstation.. so yeah that might be it. almost no one was on today. it was a ghost town
I read a study that was done a year or so ago.
By the same group who has studied other mmos like WoW.
Basically, for the average person, a zen to ad ratio of 240 or higher makes it feel more valuable to buy zen with cash than it does to grind.
Think about it. Two weeks ago, $10 got you roughly 150k ad
Now that same $10 gets you a quarter mil or better.
100k difference.
Doing this daily trio of pvp, dungeon and skirmish on one toon, that's four days of effort.
Each day being about 2 hours or so to accomplish that, factoring waiting for the queue.
Short version is, for the casual player, which on ps4 will out number more serous ones, I believe, it's much more worth now to buy zen to get diamonds.
Those the supply of zen is not diminishing.
What you have to remember, it not ad that drives this market. It's zen.
Most of the good stuff, like coal wards, vip, and runic bags, are basically zen only.
So people who grind instead of pay are going to keep wanting that, regardless of how much the Zax rises.
While payers will buy those directly and then capitalize on the market at the same time to save time grinding for ad.
Sadly, it'll be a hole, if ever, before we see sub 200 rates
Next week's 2x ad won't help. And a few weeks later is another 2x refine.
A tin foil hat wearing individual would suggest the back to back to back 2x ad, enchant, and refine might be intentional to drive up the Zax, making people much more likely to buy zen with cash, and thus making cryptic much more money.
Oh, and another big reason is the ad sellers have taken huge hits
So people aren't buying off market as much, I'd think.
That's driving demand up as well.
Sad thing is, if everyone would pull their to buy zen offers down to sub 200 levels, dimes to dollars it would drop with a quickness. But that won't happen.
People wanting zen are more scared of a rise then people with zen are scared of a fall.
So people will keep buying at higher and higher rates afraid their ad will be worth even less if they don't do it know. Which will continue the demand to keep the rates up.
Me, not buying zen for more than 200 each. Period. And sub 170 if I can help it.
I have 80+ days of vip left. So I don't have anything I "need". For now.
That's exactly what's happening...
They've released this game twice before, they know what happens when they run these weekend events and they know how much they profit off of it being higher.
This is the reason I'm about done with this game, it's no longer free to play with exchange rates out the whazoo. Now you have to play 2-3 times as much to earn the diamonds you need for "free" VIP or to buy anything off the Trade House.
It's disapointing that this game went from 'comfortable amount of grind/reward value' to "not worth playing" in less than two weeks...
I have 8 toons.
One of each class.
Secondary reason being, dependent on mood, I might want to play a particular Clas that day.
But the primary reason is storage, and professions.
Each of my toons has a different, if possible, profession and cranking out gear for my squad, and supplies for guild.
Third and forth slots were from heirloom and first time buyers, so no additional cost.
5 and 6 were Warlock and GWF. I had to have a battlerager.
I bought those with the coupon you get at sixty.
7 and 8 are bankers.
One handles all my enchants, the other all my refining.
Eventually I'll get a couple more slots to use as bankers so I can actually play my DC and GF
Anyway, my point of that, was 8 slots isn't terrible to come by.
Even if buying them out right, that's only 1500 zen, less with coupons.
And they'll make it back.
Each one does full invoking every day. So once a week I get eight coffers with a chance of a coal ward.
Each one, as I said, does a profession, that can either sell mats if needed of gear.
All that takes maybe an actual hour to do each day. And that includes the time switching from toon to toon.
Lastly, each one runs a quick 5-10 min dungeon twice a day. So about 2 hours or so there in total. On average.
Each toon gets around 11k in ad, and 600 adventure marks.
Which every day is a bag of rough ad. Which, smartly, I save up for double ad making them worth 1k each.
So all told day, I get roughly 90k direct ad with a couple hours work.
And another 8k daily in potential ad from the ad bags.
And it's not a terrible grind.
So with that, even at current Zax, I can get a 3 month vip with a week of runs, with a 15% off anything coupon.
And that's not counting the ad from pvp on the toon or two I do it on.
Or invoking, with is another, up to, 2400 a piece.
And ALL of that doubles during double ad.
So there's ways to get it without killing yourself.
And for any who thing of multi toons as too much effort, I just look at it as managing my adventuring party Ala boulders gate.
Except they don't go out together.
Curious thing for me, is when is it going to stop.
It was at 270 when I logged off tonight.
That's the killing mood for me.
It's not tapering off, and that makes no sense
It is now double what it was 3 weeks ago and anyone who doesn't see this as a problem obviously hasn't paid attention to the PC version.
This makes no sense.
It's in the mid 180s now.
No way people are this foolish...?