Failures with Refining :(

alyrissa · February 2016

How on earth does someone fail 4 straight times on a 90% refinement? Should the rng be renamed to NFG lol sorry could not resist, seems very unusual to fail that many times in a row, ah well such is life

rayrdan · February 2016

magenubbie said:
I fail to see how that is unusual. Try rolling 90+ with a D100 4 times.

you mean <90. your example is a 10% chance to refine

alyrissa · February 2016

well sorry folks it did appear I was complaining, I was rather just sad that the rng picked that day to flex her muscles with me, sorry again

schietindebux · February 2016

1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 0,01%
you are the one from 10000, that loses this way, bad luck

fatguns · February 2016

schietindebux said:
1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 0,01%
you are the one from 10000, that loses this way, bad luck

Start opening lockboxes

plasticbat · February 2016

Do your refinement in a lone instance that have only you in it.

myleafs · February 2016

close your eye's when you press the button...it always works ^^^^^

namelesshero347 · February 2016

schietindebux said:
1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 0,01%
you are the one from 10000, that loses this way, bad luck

That's pretty good. I've had a few cases where there were many more zeros after the decimal.

urabask · February 2016

Was all excited to get my eye to mythic and then this happened:

Apparently eye of lathander is so special that it need greater marks of power even though it's an artifact of union : |

Also that tooltip for 2xRP ...

aulduron · February 2016

I took your RNG luck today. I gt 3 coal wards from 40-50 invoke boxes, 2 artifacts from lockboxes, and made numerous R8s and 9s on the first 1-3 tries. I'd say I'm sorry, but I'd be a liar.

semirke · February 2016

Here it is:
http://dilbert.com/strip/2001-10-25

pekupekui · February 2016

I failed 40 times to upgrade a rank 6 to 7 (30% chance)... so why are you complaining again? xD

minotaur2857 · February 2016

I've been trying to gather enough data to be statistically significant over the last 4 2xRP, this is what I found:

30% chance - 18 upgrades, 85 attempts, best 1, worst 19, actual success rate 21.1%, expected atts 60
25% chance - 91 upgrades, 310 attempts, best 1, worst 14, actual success rate 29.4% expected atts 364
20% chance - 52 upgrades, 326 attempts, best 1, worst 20, actual success rate 16.0% expected atts 260
10% chance - 40 upgrades, 503 attempts, best 1, worst 39, actual success rate 8.0% expected atts 400
5% chance - 21 upgrades, 462 attempts, best 2, worst 124, actual success rate 4.5% expected atts 420

So on 222 upgrades, I should have taken 1504 attempts, I actually took 1686 so around 12% more but it was very streaky. The reason the 25% looks so good is a streak of 7 first time successes in 8 (with a 5 in the middle).

I'd suggest they put in a streakbreaker (something that did exist in a previous Cryptic game in different circumstances) that means that you eventually WILL succeed with an upgrade. Something like "If you've had 6 unsuccessful goes at a 50% or better chance, 12 goes at a 25-49%, 15 goes at a 20%, 25 goes at a 10%, 45 goes at a 5%, your next attempt will succeed". The way this was done in the previous game which avoided having to hold individual data on the items was simply to hold "worst chance among the run of failures" and number of failures.

fantasycharacter · February 2016

I'd suggest they put in a streakbreaker (something that did exist in a previous Cryptic game in different circumstances) that means that you eventually WILL succeed with an upgrade.

Or they could just do away with the percentage chance and charge what they think an upgrade should cost. They get their share of your AD and you get your enchantment upgraded without randomness...everyone wins.

Failures with Refining :(

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