Question: Rare Profession Tasks

draven165 · July 2015

Does anyone know and understand the logic of the Rare Tasks?

I ask because I have noticed several things that have me confused. I have 7 Level 60 Characters and for time saving I selected a different profession type on several. Ex. CW did Tailoring, DC did Mailsmithing, GF did Platesmithing etc.

What I have noticed is the rare options are not the same for each character which is fine. What I mean is if I am running my main which is my DC and I check the professions to see what's available in Tailoring, then switch over to my CW thinking that the "gemmed pants/shirt" is available it isn't on that character. That's fine I get that rare is character specific. But what I don't understand is the rotation. I log in each of my characters to do professions and invoke before I start playing for the day. I check to see what is in rotation on each to see if anything I need is there. What I have noticed is the rare professions do not always change on the characters I am not playing. The timer itself often does not even change.

Example, I log into my CW first to see what tailoring options are there. Timer is at 59 minutes. I log into each of my other characters and do all the stuff needed which takes a good 20-30 minutes then I can log back into my CW and the timer is still at 59 minutes? Does the timer not change if you are not actively playing that character? As it sits now it sometimes takes several hours to rotate the options on the non active characters. Any thoughts, ideas or insights into the mechanics of the professions?

somemint · July 2015

From my experience, timer ticks even if your character is logged out, but only within one hour period. So you basically have to restart the timer manually each hour. Example:
- login and open the professions menu;
- first set of rare tasks is available, timer shows 59 minutes left;
- change character/logout, wait for 29 minutes;
- login again;
- first set of rare tasks is still there, timer shows 30 minutes left;
- change character/logout, wait for 45 minutes;
- login again;
- rare tasks have switched, timer shows 59 (not less, as you could have expected) minutes left.

vdeekv · July 2015

Basically the rare jobs are RNG, like 99.9% of everything in Neverwinter

Once per hour you get to roll for a new set of rare tasks. Even if you're playing the character and it's over an hour since you checked your professions, it won't roll for a new set of tasks until you open your professions window.

Same applies to idle characters, if it's over an hour since you logged in and checked the professions, you will get a new set of tasks when you open the professions window on that character.

somemint · July 2015

Yep. And RNG is really bad, I've had only 3 opportunities to craft Archmage Ring +6 in like 2 weeks. And in 5 tries with quality at 160% I've got only 1 third tier item.

patsfire · July 2015

You need to use your Grandmaster JewelCrafter and 4 Mithral tools. I get Tier 3 everytime

somemint · July 2015

I stated in my previous post that I have 160% quality boost from tools, that means I'm using 4 mithral tools. I also have grandmaster jewelcrafter, though it has completely no relation to item's tier, only speed bonus.

bluedood · July 2015

With four purples it is still a 60% chance, so I like to cross my fingers and hope the RNG is in my favor.

draven165 · July 2015

I am still a bit confused on the Rare tasks. Before I log off at night I go through all my characters and invoke and do professions then before I leave in the morning for work I log in and do the same. (7 hours in between) And what I have noticed is the tasks in the rare options at night are still there when I log in the next morning and still sitting at 59 min. I ended up taking pictures with my phone of the night before and morning after and every option is the exact same. That's some crazy RNG. But this is happening often. The options aren't rotating at all. If it is just my RNG luck I need to just hang it up and never ever buy a lottery ticket! LOL

randomhateforums · July 2015

The 1 hour is set when that character logs in.. As mentioned above you need to login after it expires to get it to reset and start updating again. The first time you login after it expires, it selects the random rare tasks and starts the 1h timer.

draven165 · July 2015

I completely get that it is supposed to rotate. Like I said I am logging in 7 hours later and the options are identical. So I am just a victim of very poor RNG rotations. It does not affect all my characters though. Mainly my main and 2 of my alts. All my characters are level 60 and have 8 profession slots unlocked each, not that that has anything to do with it, its just odd that there aren't more variables or a better mix in the rotation. Maybe I am on the 7 hour cycle

Where it goes back to the starting point HAHAHA. Who knows. I will continue to monitor it. I just want the darn Gemmed cloths on my main character lol

somemint · July 2015

bluedood wrote: »

With four purples it is still a 60% chance, so I like to cross my fingers and hope the RNG is in my favor.

Probability to get 4 fails (with 40% probability for each) in 5 tries is less than 8%. So, yeah, I'm pretty unlucky

patsfire · July 2015

I must have really great luck when it comes to getting Tier 3's. I have only gotten less then Tier 3 once, and that was only because I was rushing through and accidently chose a Steel Awl instead of one of my Mithrals smh

xxxsfalxxx · July 2015

Sometimes it seems like it works out better than a 60% chance to get tier 3 results true, but it's like when you fail 5 times in a row opening a 75% kit, or like the last time I upgraded an artifact green to blue, it failed the 90% twice in a row and used up two bound p-wards. Which failing two times in a row is a small chance to happen true, but it's not a zero chance. Either way, the odds of getting a few successes in a row is much better than failing a few times in a row even with different chances that appear fairly far off. For example using 75% kit and 60% tier 3. The chance of failing to open a kit 5 times in row is .097 while the chance of getting a tier 3 result 5 times in a row is 7.7

For what special tasks are up, if you have two toons and log in with one at 5 after the hour and the other at 45 after the hour, their special tasks for the same professions will theoretically be off by 40 minutes, and there's no promise those special tasks will be the same when they turn anyway. (We'd expect them to not be the same in fact.) That's skewed if you've quit the game for some period of time as well. Other times the resets appear random.

As far as the random special tasks, it doesn't appear to be individually random but random as a set of them. There don't seem that many sets either, depending on the profession. So you might see the same one quite often or right after each other, making it be sometimes two or three hours with the same set.

wdj40 · July 2015

I recently had 7 out of 8 possible gemmed items fail at 60% success chance each, RNG does not favour me in this game at all. Last night I had 5 out of 6 fail as well

Tomidius · July 2015

patsfire wrote: »

You need to use your Grandmaster JewelCrafter and 4 Mithral tools. I get Tier 3 everytime

No... No you do not.

draven165 · July 2015

I am not sure and I know I have beat this horse to death but I am convinced that my rare options on my Main character are not changing. I have been waiting to get the Gemmed shirt on my DC for a week and every time no matter what time of day I look the Gemmed Gamberson or whatever is always there. It never leaves the list and never changes. I ended up buying the shirt off the AH. This is a tad ridiculous. Is it possible to get the professions stuck? When I play I check every hour and it never changes. While I am at work I have people at home log in and look for me throughout the day and they all say its always there. Does this game really want me to have that shirt or what LOL... Such is the luck with RNG I suppose.

As for the Tier 3 results. On other professions I get a pretty good mix of success and failures. So no complaints there as that is to be expected. I always use 4 Epic tools and an Epic worker.

patsfire · July 2015

@Tomidius Yes, Yes you do. That increases the odds of a Tier 3 dramatically. Are you trying to say you can get Tier 3 with no mithral? I know you don't NEED a grandmaster, but it makes it easier and quicker. So please explain to me your comment.

draven165 · July 2015

I am pretty sure he was referring to the need for the grandmaster.

patsfire · July 2015

Yea, well he can waste a few more hours all he wants. I would rather use my grandmaster to make more things quicker.

xxxsfalxxx · July 2015

No, the claim was more is that you did not get tier 3 every time. Not that you're not using grandmaster (which is certainly faster) or didn't use 4 mithral items (since as we know you need that for a 60% tier 3 chance to begin with).

Now it might be true somebody did get tier 3 every time they tried it, since that it is possible they did it a very few times and isn't a big deal or was somewhat lucky, or they did it very many times and are the luckiest person in the world given enough many times.

If you tried it one time, 60%, and you had a better than average chance to get it. Not that lucky no. Trying it twice is rather lucky, that's a 36% chance. The third time in a row, getting more lucky, 21.6% chance to get three 60% successes in a row. 4 times 12.96% and that's still believable. 5 - 7.77% 6 - 4.66% 7 - 2.8% So 7 successes in a row is possible yes, but somebody who does that is very certainly in the 2.8% of experiences. Of course the chance of continuing to get successes keeps getting worse, less and less likely to continue to get every time. For example, once you've tried it 15 times, your odds have dropped to .047% you had all 15 being a success. Still theoretically possible, sure. But the odds are, you're going to fail at some point, and that point is likely to be more around 2 or 3 in a row than it is any higher.

The odds of failing x times in a row are lower though btw. But obviously still possible to happen. Failing 5 times in a row is 1%, 10 times in a row .01%, and 15 times .000001%

patsfire · July 2015

You lost me. I have only tried to make a tier 3 8 times TOTAL, between both of my characters. Those 8 times were not all at once, almost each one was split between a number of days. So in my case, those 8 times I tried for Tier 3...I got Tier 3. I never said, or meant to imply, that I have tried for Tier 3 100 times and gotten tier 3 100 times lol. I am lucky, but I don't think I'm that lucky.

Edit: Also you initial math didn't quite make sense. Each time you start a Tier 3 you have that 60% chance. It doesn't matter how many times you do it, you always have that same 60% chance. your odds don't decrease.

somemint · July 2015

patsfire wrote: »

Also you initial math didn't quite make sense. Each time you start a Tier 3 you have that 60% chance. It doesn't matter how many times you do it, you always have that same 60% chance. your odds don't decrease.

Actually, his math is completely fine. He uses a formula to calculate the probability of X successes in N statistically independent Bernoulli trials. Each try has a success chance of 60%, yes. But odds for receiving X successes in a row drop dramatically with each attempt. For 8 successes out of 8 attempts chance will be 1.68%, pretty peculiar.

saatvikaa · July 2015

think of it as a quarter each time you flip it you have a 50% chance of getting heads but the chances of getting ten heads in a row is really slim

zacoria1405 · August 2015

I've attempted to make 15 tier 3 gemmed items since last night and have had 2 that were a success out of the 15. I have never believed the success rate to be 60% and I personally believe it is actually set at 47.5% based on keeping a record of the last 500 items that I have made. I always use 4x mithral tools and I'm pretty sure the odds of success are in fact stacked against the player. I guess the devs don't want us making too many AD's as it may stop our potential spending on the game.

randomhateforums · August 2015

RND is very odd, but Cryptic does seem to come in at the lower end. In one bad run I failed 10 attempts in a row to get Gemmed... Of course later on I picked up 4-5 in a row successfully.

Tomidius · August 2015

patsfire wrote: »

@Tomidius Yes, Yes you do. That increases the odds of a Tier 3 dramatically. Are you trying to say you can get Tier 3 with no mithral? I know you don't NEED a grandmaster, but it makes it easier and quicker. So please explain to me your comment.

Yes i was commenting on your 'every time' statement.

You have only made 8 you claim.. so 8 for 8... is very fortunate.. as a guy with the math posted there... you are in the minority on that one.

I make 3 at a time whenever I can... I have 4 characters with 20 JC so its up a lot. ( transferring tools is annoying) Sometimes I make all three.. sometimes I fail all 3.. usually a mix though... Failing 3 is like taking a shot in the nuts.

If I went 2 for 3 every single time I would be a happy camper.

Question: Rare Profession Tasks

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