If [rate of when boxes opened] was added to those numbers, the formula would work better. I find that opening a larger number of boxes at once have greater "chance" to get the better items than just 5 at a time or 1 every 4 seconds.
Add:
1 opened every second until 100 opened.
and...
5 spam opened every few minutes.
Of course all those factors in the above examples have situational factors that can be changed. tldr; Some believe that how quickly boxes open change the chance of getting the better items.
Some people believe crossing your fingers increases your chances as well. And blowing on the dice helps a roll at craps. Although we will never know the Cryptic algorithms (another reason such gambling devices are rather predatory), I think all of these types of hypotheses are rather unlikely.
LTS since 2009. Author of ACT parser module for CO. Founder of Rampagers. Resident curmudgeon.
"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." -- W. Edwards Deming
One thing for certain is that the contents of a box are not determined at the time of its creation. This is proven by copying a set of boxes over to the PTS multiple times and opening them. For example, copying ten boxes over ten times to get a sampling of 100 boxes. The contents of the ten boxes are not the same at each opening, indicating that the RNG is likely seeded by something at the time of their opening, such as the server clock. In other words, the timing of the opening has everything to do with the contents of the box, but how to benefit from this is completely unknown.
From this comes theories about opening boxes in short to long sequences, rapid or slow secession, or letting boxes sit for some time in inventory before opening them.
I find it extremely ironic that there are people complaining about the only "content" we get being in the form of lock boxes.....and here you lot are opening thousands, just to try and figure exact odds.
No wonder Cryptic thinks lockbox keys are selling well.
Buying them off the market is still buying them from Cryptic. It might be a tad more indirect but the effect is the same. Cryptic still earned a sale, if not by you. Then by the person you bought it from.
Do you know the form of the t-test and test of statistical significance for a situation like this (trying to put a bound on the probabilities of rare events)? I'd like to get some numbers in that form, but my statistics background doesn't make it much past ANOVA (and I remember it somewhat fuzzily).
That quote is OYo's not mine,
now to throw another spanner in. as well as the time of day and how fast you open it.
I have one character who gets good stuff from tank boxs but who gets no good stuff from bike boxes.
I have have one who gets good stuff from bike bxoes but not tank.
Then we get these ones,on the same day
Captain Chat ban opened 20- all mods.
Anneika opened 20- 2 green boxes, 3 blue boxes,
and already farmed out the gear to people. the con 7's I think I still have.
This is no more a fact than the statement you quoted. They're both assumptions.
Fact is what we got in the last 6-7 months, and that were lockboxes with vehicles, more lockboxes .. and hey .. even more lockboxes with vehicles. So now .. its not an assumption
it is just taking reality as a fact.
Comments
Add:
1 opened every second until 100 opened.
and...
5 spam opened every few minutes.
Of course all those factors in the above examples have situational factors that can be changed.
tldr; Some believe that how quickly boxes open change the chance of getting the better items.
"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." -- W. Edwards Deming
From this comes theories about opening boxes in short to long sequences, rapid or slow secession, or letting boxes sit for some time in inventory before opening them.
No wonder Cryptic thinks lockbox keys are selling well.
Occam's Razor makes the cutting clean.
Whoever you are, be that person one hundred percent. Don't compromise on your identity.
Buying them off the market is still buying them from Cryptic. It might be a tad more indirect but the effect is the same. Cryptic still earned a sale, if not by you. Then by the person you bought it from.
That quote is OYo's not mine,
now to throw another spanner in. as well as the time of day and how fast you open it.
I have one character who gets good stuff from tank boxs but who gets no good stuff from bike boxes.
I have have one who gets good stuff from bike bxoes but not tank.
Then we get these ones,on the same day
Captain Chat ban opened 20- all mods.
Anneika opened 20- 2 green boxes, 3 blue boxes,
and already farmed out the gear to people. the con 7's I think I still have.
Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
Gah, frikkin forum... Anyway, the question stands to anyone who knows the relevant statistics.
Fact is what we got in the last 6-7 months, and that were lockboxes with vehicles, more lockboxes .. and hey .. even more lockboxes with vehicles. So now .. its not an assumption
it is just taking reality as a fact.