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Broken Forum Malvan Lockboxes?
mensar
Posts: 294 Arc User
Might want to check the drop rates on the chariot and imperator drops.
I've opened over 200 boxes and I know people that have done 3x that many and nobody has seen the chariot or the imperator drop yet. I heard a RUMOR that someone found the chariot, but that's it.
I'm hoping it doesn't have somethign to do with the reduced drop rates glitching the actual drop rates of the items in the boxes.
But if I whine that I want boxes to drop more often, will that maybe fix the drop rates of the items in the boxes also? Well.. let's not go there. There's enough whining for 8 games in here.
Anyway.. please check the drop rates and see if anyone's actually even found one yet, based on the number of opened boxes (which I'm sure is well into the thousands) SOMEONE should have found one by now.
ANd based on the fact that there isn't one on the AH for 15,000,0000 globals yet. I'd say it's broken.
I've opened over 200 boxes and I know people that have done 3x that many and nobody has seen the chariot or the imperator drop yet. I heard a RUMOR that someone found the chariot, but that's it.
I'm hoping it doesn't have somethign to do with the reduced drop rates glitching the actual drop rates of the items in the boxes.
But if I whine that I want boxes to drop more often, will that maybe fix the drop rates of the items in the boxes also? Well.. let's not go there. There's enough whining for 8 games in here.
Anyway.. please check the drop rates and see if anyone's actually even found one yet, based on the number of opened boxes (which I'm sure is well into the thousands) SOMEONE should have found one by now.
ANd based on the fact that there isn't one on the AH for 15,000,0000 globals yet. I'd say it's broken.
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This message brought to you by the superhero:
All available action figures, check.
Hit the global cap, check.
All lore and event perks done, check.
All 1K mob perks done, check.
All nemesis mob perks done, check.
Break 20,000 perk points, check.
Complete all 5K perk points, stay tuned!
Come see me on steam (be friends, drink fine wines, clink glasses and KILL STUFF ONLINE!)
Pretty massive though. Doesn't work well with mag.
EDIT: Doesn't work at all with mag unless you reload the map.
And.. it's BoE. Seems odd for a become.
I like that it's so rare. I just was afraid it wasn't dropping at all.
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All 1K mob perks done, check.
All nemesis mob perks done, check.
Break 20,000 perk points, check.
Complete all 5K perk points, stay tuned!
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Seems legit
Stop it!
You made me snort my Dr. Pepper!
CellarRat33 :: formerly Bsquared
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This is why I read posts by Nesa ONLY when not drinking carbonated beverages.
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You might want to look into the Questionite Exchange, you can use an in-game currency to buy Zen that can buy your worthless items without needing to use cash.
Tbh, it's easy to get keys without need of cash. They sell for about 80-120g each, which is rather cheap and easy to get. People who simply buy the keys with cash are just too lazy to do the grind of collecting in-game money or questionite.
They may also have a little to much money to through around, but that's an entirely different topic.
Those keys on the ah had to get there some how, and it isn't through PW's good will. Sure some use Q, but I suspect that with all the stuff Q buys not many are.
WHIIIIIIINE! I didn't get my random drops from my lockboxes! WHIIIIIINE!
But no whining guys, seriously, gawd!
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I'm baffled as to why he's complaining, since he got the zen he bought. And that's all that matters, supposedly.
so obviously the drop boxes are aimed at people like yourself..
well if you want to spend your money on them...
Delicious.
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I think this just needs some time. By the next stage of the event, becomes and chariots won't be so rare anymore.
Wish so, but I already spend 150Dollars for it and got none of becomes and chariots. :eek:
Wow, I'd wish I'd seen this before I opened over 60 boxes.. oh well..I guess I'll make sum o dat G selling keys and boxes
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Seeing as it potentially takes hundreds to get anything, new drop box rate has became a grind in itself, le sigh.
CellarRat33 :: formerly Bsquared
***
"The great thing about glory unending is that it's dirt cheap!" - Tateklys
From the Adventures of Thundrax (canadascott)
***
I think you may be onto something. I didn't think about it yesterday, but lokking back, about two thirds of the lockboxes I got yesterday came from UNITY missions, when that amounted for only about a quarter of what I did.
Maybe the drop rate is higher in UNITY?
And playing by myself since Aug 2009
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Now i know for sure that all this lockbox terror will never stop when people spent points for that you could get 40-100 costume sets just for a stupid vehicle.
Who knows, if they throw enough money at them, perhaps we'll get some additional developer attention.
The hate is directed at demonstrated hypocrisy.
Me, I'm only directing mild annoyance at these lockboxes.
I'll freely admit the selfish reason that one of my chars finally picked up gear that fits her build.
As long as these people spent masses on money on crappy Grabbags .. err .. Lockboxes, we won't get new content or at last normal Costume sets to buy for a fixed amount of points, since why should they sell them for 500 points if people are willing to pay 10.000 to gamble for stuff.
This is no more a fact than the statement you quoted. They're both assumptions.
Agreed.
123
'Caine, miss you bud. Fly high.
"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." -- W. Edwards Deming
No, the reduced drop rate is just fine. It's actually a fresh breath of air that I'm not drowning in the damn things anymore.
Well, they did manage to get me a lot of Resources on the Market when I kept selling them off at their previous rate, but that was because I just wanted to be rid of the damn things.
And playing by myself since Aug 2009
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Out of 361 lock boxes opened...
- 1786 Drifter Salvage = An average of ~4.9473 Salvage per box
- 34 pieces of Mercenary's Gear = 34/361 or ~9.4183%
- 23 pieces of Legion's Gear = 23/361 or ~6.3712%
- 0 Become Gladiator devices = 0/361 or 0.0000%*
- 0 Chariots = 0/361 or 0.0000%*
*The probabilities of the become devices and chariots aren't really 0%, seeing that some people have them. At this point, it seems that the probability of obtaining one though is very very small.**All decimals have been rounded to 4 places.
That's a pretty good sample size. 1000 would be better, but those statistics are still dismal.
But on the bright side, look at all that Drifter Salvage you got. You could buy a third-world country or something with all that useless currency.
The costume pieces are clipping horribly. The become device being BoE and Enrage not working. Its not proven but judging from everything that has to do with the box, the drop rates might as well be considered to be bugged too.
I never thought they would have gotten the loot involved with lockboxes to break, but here we are.
I put 60 keys into this and got just 1 costume piece. I don't think I'll be putting any more into this box. I should have traded the keys for the pieces and become directly.
1. Just because there is a Percentage chance of something happening, that doesn't mean that it will, unless it is 100%
2. opening boxes does NOT give you a cumulative chance to get something. It is the same chance per box. Regardless of how many you open.
For those that like quoting the law of averages. tHERE IS NO SUCH THING.
when tossing coins , you have exactly the same chance of getting HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH AS
HTHTHTHTHTHT.
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Worrying? I call that criminal.
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Interesting, considering that the last lockbox had an average of 2.8 Salvage per box. That's quite a jump up in fact.
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Except, now you're coming at it from the wrong direction too.
For any two specific sets of trials, what you present is true, but the chance of getting a series of all heads is much lower than getting a series that has one or more tails in it, as the latter case refers to many more possible outcomes. As number of trials increases, it is indeed more likely that the aggregate results will closely fit their actual fractional probabilities, and as the trial series become larger, the rare cases should (but will not necessarily, either) pop up.
361 and not either of the 'tops' (make that about 400, counting mine) does suggest a low probability, but I don't know offhand the equations to establish an upper bound for a certain level of confidence for rare-event cases like this.
I'm hoping you get banned. You may make light of that if you wish.
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RE: random chance: The odds of HHHHHHHHH are actually much higher than HTHTHTHTHT. The thing is, if you flip HHHHHHHHH, the odds of the next flip being H again are 50%, because in the wise words of Louis Wu in Ringworld, Lady Luck has no memory.
- David Brin, "Those Eyes"
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Only because you miscounted and 9 consecutive H is indeed more likely than 5 HT pairs. But basically, giving exact sequences, the odds are theoretically the same, (1/2)^n, with n being the number of flips.
The thing is irrelevant, because people are looking at aggregates. The odds of tails not coming up at least a single time in n flips is (1/2)^n, which is below 0,1% after as little as 10 flips.
Which is, mathematically speaking, the wrong approach to the problem. Consecutive boxes give you a cumulative chance of not not getting anything.
If p is the percentage change of getting what you'd consider a rare (say, the chariot or the become), then x = p/100 is the mathematical odds of a rare. Consequently, (1-x)=(1-p/100) is the odds of not getting a rare.
The odds of not seeing a single rare in n boxes is (1-x)^n.
What would be a reasonable chance to see one of the top-tier "rare" drops (chariot or become)?
Let's assume p=1, that is, one in a hundred boxes gives one of the top-tier rares. That sound reasonable - Cryptic wants to make money, but a virtual good not dropping even once per about 100 dollars spent on Zen would be bad enough to maybe even make even hardened lockbox cheerleaders think again about wheter the business-model is shady bordering on fraudulent. Surely the company couldn't want that?
For p=1, the odds of not seeing a top-tier rare in 361 boxes is a mere 2,7 percent. That makes it statistically unlikely the odds are actually that "good"!
Only assuming a p as low as 0,2 (i.e. one in 500 lockboxes having a top-tier drop) do I get to a point where there's almost even odds of 361 consecutive boxes not yielding a rare.
While this doesn't conclusively prove anything (which, I might add, is a core argument for shady gambling-like business models that refuse to publish odds), statistically speaking, the 361 box test points to the chance for a top-tier drop (chariot or become) from a Forum Malvanum Lockbox very likely being below 1 percent and quite possibly as low as 1 in 500.
What I'd like to know is the number of costume drops n those 361 boxes - they're the second-tier rares, after all, and you'd wish there was at least one every 20 boxes or so (I mean, four times the cost of former costume sets for one piece, surely even Cryptic can't be even greedier than that?).
"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." -- W. Edwards Deming
Do you know the form of the t-test and test of statistical significance for a situation like this (trying to put a bound on the probabilities of rare events)? I'd like to get some numbers in that form, but my statistics background doesn't make it much past ANOVA (and I remember it somewhat fuzzily).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
IMPORTANT CAVEAT: It's been a while since I used this math so please take my numbers with a grain of salt.
If we assume a drop rate of 1%, the odds of seeing what oyo32 saw are only ~2.7%. If we assume a drop rate of 0.1%, then the odds of seeing what oyo32 saw rises to 70.0%. In other words, the 0.1% drop rate is more likely than the 1% drop rate. This doesn't mean that it isn't 1%, it just means it's less likely than other possibilities based on our current sampling.
It's a bit sketchy estimating an actual drop rate since we don't have ANY drops in the sample. About all we can say is what thearkady already said: with ~50% confidence the rate is ~2/1000 or lower.
This is also the same estimated chance of me getting a pet triceratops, as I have checked my backyard for a pet triceratops 361 times so far, and have not got one yet.
EDIT: thearkady already said the same thing in a slightly different way, sorry I didn't catch that. Anyway, what I said can be seen as supporting them. AFAIK they were right and what I did was just a different approach with the same results.
@Thompkins