Fury, you must have missed Jay's last post before the permaban - the one where he stated openly that he wanted CO to fall, thinking this would provide more funding for his own superhero MMO (when in fact it would be more likely to cause investors to assume no one wanted to play superhero MMOs, and pull all funding).
I'm trying to give those still here the benefit of the doubt wherever possible - but Jay removed all doubt.
I did miss it. Heard about it though. If he actually thought that CO failing would help anything at all then he is obviously mistaken. I would simply point out he was once an ardent fan.
At any rate, back on topic, I still think a bundling package would work wonders. Cryptic has 3 games that could be marketed together cheaply with ads on the 3 launcher windows. If each game is marketed equally, I don't forsee any problems the 3rd parties in STO and NWO might have with the proposal.
They offer no critique, simply complaints apparently inspired by the fact that CO keeps on chugging no matter how badly they hate it.
You believe that my saying "Wake up! the population is bleeding dry again, market this game or fail" is hating the game while harassing people with image macro spam is better for the game and community.
That's what you've stated and how you behave.
I give you data and you become a rabid pest.
Eat your heart out.
Yes, you give us data. What you don't give anybody is information.
Besides, MMO providers know their populations. It's a fundamental unit of their operations. Stop acting like you're publishing these numbers to inform Cryptic or anybody else. You're just trolling.
I did miss it. Heard about it though. If he actually thought that CO failing would help anything at all then he is obviously mistaken. I would simply point out he was once an ardent fan.
Here's the link. I have it bookmarked as an example to others. *glares at nextnametaken*
Choose your enemies carefully, because they will define you / Make them interesting, because in some ways they will mind you
They're not there in the beginning, but when your story ends / Gonna last with you longer than your friends
Besides, MMO providers know their populations. It's a fundamental unit of their operations. Stop acting like you're publishing these numbers to inform Cryptic or anybody else.
Yes and they won't publish those numbers unless they are proud of them. Like this
Or allow access to them so others cane publish it like this or this
If you are ashamed of yourself you hide your guilt as Cryptic does.
You react to light hearted replies that the dev isn't even reading with personal attacks
and telling a player whose been here longer than you to go shove off because they
wanted to share their viewpoint in the forums, but in your opinion I'm the troll.
You are some kind of sociopath.
Yes, you give us data. What you don't give anybody is information.
Besides, MMO providers know their populations. It's a fundamental unit of their operations. Stop acting like you're publishing these numbers to inform Cryptic or anybody else. You're just trolling.
Here's the link. I have it bookmarked as an example to others. *glares at nextnametaken*
Put your fight with Next on pause for a moment. Do some research on The Mighty Pencil (if we are naming). It took a bizarre coaltion of forumites, in game players, and a "stormy" dev to drag that **** kicking and screaming off these boards.
Compared to the s storm that was the just past post launch griefbag attempt that many of us participated/fought in, you are hunting guppies.
Jay's post was absurd and wrong. That being said everyone has a bad day now and then, and as such he will remain on my friends list.
Can we drop the personal stuff and just get back to game talk?
You've been told, by me and many others, that your data is flawed, and therefore serves no purpose except to doomsay and troll, yet you persist. To suddenly claim it's "light-hearted" is preposterous.
How old were you in 1994? Because that's when I started working for a company that specializes in data analytics. I've spent 19 years making a career out of turning raw data into useful information. So when you show up here, throwing around instance transfer dialog screenshots like they carry some kind of authority because it's your data and you said so, you can be damned sure I take that as a professional insult.
Choose your enemies carefully, because they will define you / Make them interesting, because in some ways they will mind you
They're not there in the beginning, but when your story ends / Gonna last with you longer than your friends
Sistersilicon, so what do you make out of available data?
It's honestly semantics at this point. Because I make my living doing trend analysis, among other things.
The trend is, this game's playerbase has dropped since 2011. Drastically.
If you go and look at the frequency of content back then, vs. now- you'll see the trend. Over time, the population shrunk. Either along with or due to the lack of content being created.
Let's not pretend there's this massive number of people playing this game that are a quiet and loyal majority that pump money into the game.
Do you think we have sufficient info to tell how viable recovery is at this point?
I might be repeating myself, but I think removing character creation limits (seriously, who the eff thought that was a good idea??) coupled with diversifying and brushing up the low-level intro stuff would help retain new players through critical early play, and THEN advertising to get eyes on the game.
Because while many of us are sick of having no new content, to a new player, hey, all of it is new. And there's a lot of stuff to go out and do.
Maybe also bumping up mission xp/questionite, because I think Alerts are too much better ROI at this point. And I'd rather bump up than reduce.
Campaign: The Fenwick Cycle NWS-DKR9GB7KH
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
Sistersilicon, so what do you make out of available data?
What "available" data?
Are we talking about the kind of factual, conclusive data that no one but Cryptic has access to?
Are we talking about 24/7 monitoring of every player's online vs offline habits over a certain period of time? Hands up anyone who has written or is using such third-party data-mining software to do just that for Cryptic's server. Anyone? Anyone?
Or are we refering to Next's marvelous statistics based on instance snapshots and pure anecdotes?
Make no mistake, I am in the opinion that the game's overall population is nothing to write home about, but if someone is going to use statistics, as in actual numbers, to prove a point, either get the data or drop the damn BS.
Sistersilicon, so what do you make out of available data?
It's honestly semantics at this point. Because I make my living doing trend analysis, among other things.
The trend is, this game's playerbase has dropped since 2011. Drastically.
If you go and look at the frequency of content back then, vs. now- you'll see the trend. Over time, the population shrunk. Either along with or due to the lack of content being created.
Let's not pretend there's this massive number of people playing this game that are a quiet and loyal majority that pump money into the game.
You beat me to it.
Anybody's own two eyes could tell them that we've been bleeding population since Cryptic failed to properly follow up on the F2P transition. The population data available to us customers isn't sufficient for any detailed analysis, so even with the noblest of intentions, trying to draw a conclusion would be tilting at windmills.
That's one more reason I'm eagerly awaiting Cryptic's 2014 plans. Will there be an investment in the game that will reverse the trend, or is this a level of survival they're willing to accept?
Choose your enemies carefully, because they will define you / Make them interesting, because in some ways they will mind you
They're not there in the beginning, but when your story ends / Gonna last with you longer than your friends
Do you think we have sufficient info to tell how viable recovery is at this point?
I don't like to be a doomsayer, but I'm a realist. Unlike most people, I don't need 100% hard data here. I'm not calculating the blast radius of an explosive device, I'm making a simple assessment on what I've seen.
And let's be real.
There has been no expansion to this game since I started playing in 2011. Since then, people have been screaming for new content.
As a matter of fact, let's be even more accurate- there were more people playing then, and there were more people asking for new content.
People have been asking for an expansion for years. Star Trek got one. We didn't. If we've gone this long, I don't think 'recovery' is the word we'll use. More like 'breathing and alive, but not kicking'.
As much as I want to have faith in this game, I don't have faith when I don't see it pay off- and so far we've seen nothing pay off. Look at this game and how you sell it to someone. How can you pitch it?
Keep in mind that most people love this game because of the Characters you can make. That is a small portion of what a solid game needs. There is, by far and large, not much else to appeal to people.
I've recommended this game to multiple people. The record for any of them sticking with it is 30 days. It's not that CO has a hard time appealing to people, it fails miserably at keeping them interested.
Yeah, that's why I think the focus shouldn't be on the vets, because they've already made their peace, but with critical up-front retention.
As for data... I realize data is limited, but from what I understand there is a vast amount of work in data analysis concerning how to interpret and evaluate based on limited data.
Limited data isn't NO data, but your answers come with provisos and limitations.
(At least, as far as I understand as _not_ a professional analyst)
Campaign: The Fenwick Cycle NWS-DKR9GB7KH
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
Using basic logic, I can only say, "Insufficient data available for a meaningful conclusion." For starters, I'd have to know how low the population could drop before the plug might be pulled. 1000 active subs? 100? 1? Is there a lower limit?
Then we have to find a definition of "active". Then we have to be able to monitor the activity for, say, a month solid to see if the activity is trending upward, downward, or remaining static. Also, Next keeps claiming to know how many people have signed up, played the tutorial, then quit and uninstalled the game. I have no idea where he's getting this data, as all he's shared with us is screenshots of the Change Zones screen (which, one should recall, never shows data for the zone one is in at the time). I can say that I frequently encounter other players, sufficiently that, for example, while leveling Pandemic through the Desert, I was in competition with at least one other person for nuclear bombs to disassemble. (Fortunately, there are always plenty of Radiation Eaters to go around...) There may have been more than one; I can only confirm seeing one other disassembling weapons, but there was at least one more person there. (It's hard to see across the Atomic Wasteland, what with the radioactive miasma hanging in the air.)
One could conclude the game is dying; one could conclude that it has declined to a level of population that is self-sustaining; one could even conclude that there's some massive increase in population waiting just around the corner, were one given to self-delusion. The point is that none of these conclusions can be properly supported with the available data. It seems probable that the devs have access to this data, however, and they don't seem particularly concerned.
"Science teaches us to expect -- demand -- more than just eerie mysteries. What use is a puzzle that can't be solved? Patience is fine, but I'm not going to stop asking the universe to make sense!"
2. The sky may not be falling, but population might be. If you feel comfortable saying that the people working on the game are in touch with whats happening, fine. Not everyone agrees with that sentiment.
Seriously, we should stop trying to get Cryptic's attention and accept the status quo? Give up fighting for improvement and advancement ? I could not disagree more.
You got their attention. They read what you typed... hell, they probably read it a long time ago and have learned to recognize a "this same stuff again" thread title and probably don't bother reading it anymore.
It's hubris to think that the only possible result of them reading what you're typing would be them suddenly taking your suggestions, or really even doing anything. If you think about it reasonably, you would realize that the very fact that you and many others have typed all this stuff over and over and over again and not gotten any response means that the folks in charge do in fact know something that you don't.
In fact, all communications from above would indicate this to be the truth... remember that time that TT actually came out and said that there are no plans to shut CO down? How frequently would you like him to make this announcement to assure you that there still are no plans to shut it down? Yearly? Monthly? Weekly? Yes, City of Heroes scared us all to some extent, but it's no reason to go into a permanent state of panic.
Don't get me wrong, I support giving suggestions. What I don't support is all this "We gotta save the company because the people in charge can't do it!" nonsense. Patronizing people by calling them incompetent and then repeating what you think they should do while they ignore you is just about the least reasonable way to go about getting someone to do something.
At some point, people might realize that they're giving suggestions for a problem that doesn't actually exist. At some point, people might realize that the tone of their suggestions is why they're falling on deaf ears.
Like, if I had started off this post by saying that you're too incompetent to post on the forums correctly and that you need to do what I say or you'll lose the ability to post (even though you know for a fact that that will not happen) would that have magically made you listen to me anymore than you're planning to right now?
You have insufficient information to determine how well the game seems to be doing, due at least in part to Cryptic keeping things to themselves...
but you have sufficient information to determine that Cryptic is not concerned about the present situation?
I have statements from our Community Representative and Lead Developer that they are not concerned about the present situation, yes. Both TrailTurtle and LordGar have stated that they aren't concerned for their jobs, or for the continuation of CO as a game. That is the single piece of hard data to which we, as players, have been privileged.
"Science teaches us to expect -- demand -- more than just eerie mysteries. What use is a puzzle that can't be solved? Patience is fine, but I'm not going to stop asking the universe to make sense!"
I have statements from our Community Representative and Lead Developer that they are not concerned about the present situation, yes. Both TrailTurtle and LordGar have stated that they aren't concerned for their jobs, or for the continuation of CO as a game. That is the single piece of hard data to which we, as players, have been privileged.
Yeah but you know what they're gonna respond with Jon...the old "You can't trust them they lie so we'll keep paying!" :rolleyes:
They could very well be lying. Do you think if there WAS cause for concern that PWE would be totally cool with either of them commenting on it on a forum?
They could also be misinformed. If PWE board was getting ready to shut down the game in 6 months, they might not tell anyone down the hierarchy. After all, if news gets out to players, that's lost revenue before they are ready.
Finally, even if it's absolutely true, 'the game won't be closing in the near future' doesn't tell you the game is doing WELL, or that the company isn't concerned that it isn't doing better.
Campaign: The Fenwick Cycle NWS-DKR9GB7KH
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
Now having said THAT, I'd say that the fact that CO is getting _any_ dev activity at all is a sign that PWE hasn't utterly lost faith with CO. I mean, yeah, lockboxes is squeezing blood from a brick, but they are adding other things from time to time. I might not _like_ what the devs have done over the past year, but it's not 'maintenance only.'
I'm really confused why they don't spend any effort trying to cross-promote, though. That's really puzzling.
Campaign: The Fenwick Cycle NWS-DKR9GB7KH
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
Sistersilicon, so what do you make out of available data?
She won't make anything out of it, she's afraid to gather the data for herself. She's had almost two months since her first break down over the numbers to at least get data every time she logs in and logs out.
To answer about 1994, I was six years deep into an advertising/graphic design career, working myself mad at two jobs plus freelancing while pushing everyone I talked to about "the internet" , "world wide web", "techno rave scene" k and "Video Toaster"
By the end of the year I'd settled down in a new city running a busy night shift producing graphics for all of the city's big advertising agencies and the most of the states Casinos, including the state lottery.
Long Story Shortened...a lot.
I've seen similar stagnation, mismanagement, poor decision making, misdirected work efforts, lack of publicity, lack of impact of efforts, employee rollover and loss of population crush and kill at least a dozen companies over two decades.
I was there in person and every time I pointed out the ineptness I got the same treatment people here give me : denial and angry accusations that have nothing to do with the data or the day to day situation.
The people who do that have nothing to back up their argument except claims that they are experts because they said so.
You got their attention. They read what you typed... hell, they probably read it a long time ago and have learned to recognize a "this same stuff again" thread title and probably don't bother reading it anymore.
It's hubris to think that the only possible result of them reading what you're typing would be them suddenly taking your suggestions, or really even doing anything. If you think about it reasonably, you would realize that the very fact that you and many others have typed all this stuff over and over and over again and not gotten any response means that the folks in charge do in fact know something that you don't.
In fact, all communications from above would indicate this to be the truth... remember that time that TT actually came out and said that there are no plans to shut CO down? How frequently would you like him to make this announcement to assure you that there still are no plans to shut it down? Yearly? Monthly? Weekly? Yes, City of Heroes scared us all to some extent, but it's no reason to go into a permanent state of panic.
Don't get me wrong, I support giving suggestions. What I don't support is all this "We gotta save the company because the people in charge can't do it!" nonsense. Patronizing people by calling them incompetent and then repeating what you think they should do while they ignore you is just about the least reasonable way to go about getting someone to do something.
At some point, people might realize that they're giving suggestions for a problem that doesn't actually exist. At some point, people might realize that the tone of their suggestions is why they're falling on deaf ears.
Like, if I had started off this post by saying that you're too incompetent to post on the forums correctly and that you need to do what I say or you'll lose the ability to post (even though you know for a fact that that will not happen) would that have magically made you listen to me anymore than you're planning to right now?
"Suggestions for a problem that doesn't actually exist?"
Seriously? We need more people playing, and more content. Pointing this out is not hubris. Who called anyone incompetent? Have you not noticed ads here and on your launcher window for other Cryptic products? Asking them to expand on that isn't nonsense by any means.
As to the rest of your post I get that you feel this is repetitive, and sure, it does feel that way, but there are just too many strawmen to address it point by point. I'll just say this; I don't think anyone is under the delusion that one person's opinion holds more weight than another's. If you don't understand why people are asking for this in a discussion forum, I have no idea how to respond.
Now if you're trying to get someone's attention by commenting on this, I understand completely. I eagerly await the announcement of Spinny's and Next's nuptials, and can only hope (desperately) that the wedding registry is at a business I frequent regularly. Lastly, as I said before, PLEASE, don't be too agressive or seem too eager lest you scare him away! I think you kids have a legitimate chance at real happiness here!
So how does 1994 and my history relate to any of this 'statics' you all keep bringing up?
I like how you suggest that your personal history has no relation to whatever is being discussed and yet you go into a long-winded rant about it anyway. :rolleyes:
They could very well be lying. Do you think if there WAS cause for concern that PWE would be totally cool with either of them commenting on it on a forum?
They could also be misinformed. If PWE board was getting ready to shut down the game in 6 months, they might not tell anyone down the hierarchy. After all, if news gets out to players, that's lost revenue before they are ready.
Finally, even if it's absolutely true, 'the game won't be closing in the near future' doesn't tell you the game is doing WELL, or that the company isn't concerned that it isn't doing better.
Here's my suggestion: When they officially announce that the company and/or game is closing, you can start making the "I TOLD YOU SO!" posts.
Until then, the tinfoil-hatting does no one any favors.
I'm not saying the game is about to close. I don't even think it's particularly likely (though you never know what an executive might decide).
In fact, I think CO isn't in maintenance mode yet.
I don't think the game is doing well, I think PWE is unwilling to put significant energy into the game over more lucrative properties. I also think PWE is playing it too safe and CO could be a lot more viable with marketing and some key strategic developments.
My commentary about 'what ifs' is that for all that we don't have 'proof' that population is down, we also don't have 'proof' that the game is doing ok.
That is, I think we have sufficient evidence population is really bad and the game isn't doing particularly well, but also that PWE hasn't given up on it completely.
Campaign: The Fenwick Cycle NWS-DKR9GB7KH
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
The game had just a year of development after Marvel Online was cancelled and Cryptic rushed into converting the existing engine at the time into CO, releasing it with a sub-par amount of content as opposed to what is expected of a MMO. They took a whole year to release Vibora Bay while other MMOs at the time were releasing new zones and misc. content expansions just within a few months. I could go on with details that most people already know, but to summarize: Atari and Cryptic blew their chances at a truly successful start and there's no recovering from it.
We just have to keep our expectations from them realistic at this point. We are not getting a whole new zone with a whole bunch of new mission chains and lairs. Just don't make it a personal expectation. Whatever budgeting PWE is giving Cryptic for this game's development, it's definitely minimal compared to the other two games and the trend is clearly there, because as a product CO has proven itself to be an investment that's failed but not entirely so.
It's just enough for us to get bite-sized content in the form of events and alerts. Expect nothing more at this point. The most I'd go with my expectation is a new AP but that's stretching it a little really, even though personally I feel that a new AP is an acceptable substitute for the lack a new zone and would definitely be a crowd drawer.
I have statements from our Community Representative and Lead Developer that they are not concerned about the present situation, yes. Both TrailTurtle and LordGar have stated that they aren't concerned for their jobs, or for the continuation of CO as a game. That is the single piece of hard data to which we, as players, have been privileged.
I really have nothing against Gentleman_Crush but I have not had any respect for his word since he very strongly told a group of us that there was no Questionite/Zen like exchange coming when I said there was in December 2011. I felt at the time that it was a lie, and didn't press it, I figured he had his reasons to hold down rumors. It still doesn't sit well with me.
Gentelman_Crush, also said then that the churn rate was just fine and nothing to be worried about. By the end of December two instances of Canada Crisis became one instance with one person an hour if you were lucky. Millennium City dropped down to 150 players around 1AM back then. It hits that around 11PM now. Doesn't matter to him, he doesn't play on the live server.
I was going to end my sub when CO's environmental artist spent time in chat with the people giving them action figures because our Community Representative had been fired because of the toxic forum users.
Feeling the holiday spirit, I subbed again. Right after the holiday he was no longer working on the game , we got free to play moderation in the forum, and Gentleman_Crush killed hundreds of accounts with his changes to items and stats and whatever. So much rage and quitting they restarted the forums to hide it all.
If Trailturtle told you "it looks bad" and you spit that out in the forums, like you did, he'd be fired.
Why would he tell you anything but what would save his bacon?
Would you risk your rent for some dude who doesn't even pay his bill every month like yourself?
Let me remind you that everyone at City of Heroes thought their game was super duper stable and full of profits. The people making the game thought their jobs were secure. They likely told some grubby no money free to play person like yourself that the new expansion was going to bring in lots of people and things were looking great.
Been a pretty lighthearted day and then I read your last line. Dude. You're better than that. I am very concerned with money, but here that is a choice. Not a necessity. Sweet lords that was uncool, edit that for pete's sake.
Look if you feel people are whizzing on your information, just rely on yourself and ignore it. Since we're playing "what I do for a living" this month on the forums, ok I'll play: I'm a field biologist. Your info seems fine to me. Too me and my eye they are legitmate samples. If instead you selected one particular timeframe and only posted results in a narrow fashion, I'd be screaming false positive as well. And there is the problem:
Not enough range to make any real determination beyond what I would call a "we could use some more people" flag and file.
Anyways i'm rambling so tldr I think more than one person appreciates the info you are providing, but gdam dude lets not have any metrics that use language like that. You're supposed to be a hero. Act like it.
If there's ever a moment during which I so look forward to seeing a particular someone's posting rights revoked, that should be it (and I'm not refering to you lafury).
If there's ever a moment during which I so look forward to seeing a particular someone's posting rights revoked, that should be it (and I'm not refering to you lafury).
I think he was just having a bad day, and he and sills could at least get a subsidised beer summit out of all this. Don't ruin my master plan of furthered playerbase intoxication!
At any rate, my point (nicely illustrated by jmach10) is that the forums are one thing, and the game is another. Jenny and I agree here rarely. Flip side in game Jenny is on my fl and one of the first ppl in game I would ask for an opinion. Using this space too point out that the forums and game should be seperate.
zsorry for the derail Jen, this was brought too you courtesy of people who can decide multiple days into a shutdown to change one's status from necessary too non essential. Well that and booze.
I'm kinda watching this thread anxiously with a bowl of popcorn in hand. Some of this stuff is pure gold.
How.
Dare.
You.
There are many, MANY SNACKS, that would go well with this thread. Chips, crackerjacks, s'mores, subs, hoagies, grinders, cookies, brownies, etc etc etc ad naseum.
TAKE YOUR POPCORN FASCISM AND PEDDLE IT ELSEWHERE, CORN FARMER!
(kidding, and this post makes me realize i've had enough. Also-goldfish crackerws, those are really good)
There are many, MANY SNACKS, that would go well with this thread. Chips, crackerjacks, s'mores, subs, hoagies, grinders, cookies, brownies, etc etc etc ad naseum.
TAKE YOUR POPCORN FASCISM AND PEDDLE IT ELSEWHERE, CORN FARMER!
(kidding, and this post makes me realize i've had enough. Also-goldfish crackerws, those are really good)
HOW DARE YOU QUESTION MY CHOICE OF SNACKS WHILE WATCHING THREADS CRASH AND BURN HORRIBLY.
Using basic logic, I can only say, "Insufficient data available for a meaningful conclusion." For starters, I'd have to know how low the population could drop before the plug might be pulled. 1000 active subs? 100? 1? Is there a lower limit?
Then we have to find a definition of "active". Then we have to be able to monitor the activity for, say, a month solid to see if the activity is trending upward, downward, or remaining static. Also, Next keeps claiming to know how many people have signed up, played the tutorial, then quit and uninstalled the game. I have no idea where he's getting this data, as all he's shared with us is screenshots of the Change Zones screen (which, one should recall, never shows data for the zone one is in at the time). I can say that I frequently encounter other players, sufficiently that, for example, while leveling Pandemic through the Desert, I was in competition with at least one other person for nuclear bombs to disassemble. (Fortunately, there are always plenty of Radiation Eaters to go around...) There may have been more than one; I can only confirm seeing one other disassembling weapons, but there was at least one more person there. (It's hard to see across the Atomic Wasteland, what with the radioactive miasma hanging in the air.)
One could conclude the game is dying; one could conclude that it has declined to a level of population that is self-sustaining; one could even conclude that there's some massive increase in population waiting just around the corner, were one given to self-delusion. The point is that none of these conclusions can be properly supported with the available data. It seems probable that the devs have access to this data, however, and they don't seem particularly concerned.
I have statements from our Community Representative and Lead Developer that they are not concerned about the present situation, yes. Both TrailTurtle and LordGar have stated that they aren't concerned for their jobs, or for the continuation of CO as a game. That is the single piece of hard data to which we, as players, have been privileged.
Let's be real. All of us that have been here since 2011 or longer know the population has shrunk drastically. You don't need exact data when the market provides relatively accurate data points. The general lack of supply or demand (as in both) blatantly shows an ever decreasing population - unless of course, you fail to see how supply and demand correlate with population.
Also, it would make no sense PR wise to express worry whether or not they had personal reason to.
While there's still a potential profitability to this game, it will likely never happen as the powers that be know the risks and have deemed it a poor investment whereas other projects still have far more potential at much lower risk.
CO has never lived up to its potential, and a lot of us held out hoping that it may one day at least come close. Time and again we've been shown that's not going to be the case.
Back in the day everyone was upset because they felt CO was having its resources bled into STO and NWO's development.
Has anyone considered that one reason why TT and LG aren't concerned for CO is that despite the low population (and the statement from the devs on these forums that CO remains profitable) CO runs on the same servers so those two games are helping keep CO afloat now? It's possible CO's existence and finances don't exist in a vacuum.
Secks, I am by no means attempting to deny the plain truth that the population of CO is not what it was. However, Next's claim appears to be that this game is in fact dying - a claim unsupported by the available data. Many things which are not tremendously popular are not "dying" - compare, for example, the number of people who shop at Whole Foods, then plot that against the number of people who shop at Kroger/Ralphs/Fred Meyer/whatever other names this chain goes under. Given the numbers, and the fact that in the current economic conditions the number of people who can afford to shop at Whole Foods is declining, it would be reasonable, using Next's "statistical" methods, to suppose that Whole Foods is on the verge of closing. Except that the real world does not bear this out.
Before gloom-and-doom can be cried, we must first have access to data which we simply cannot have, for fear of compromising account security.
I also note that Next assumes that a rather large percentage of players go through the tutorial, then quit forever; however, there appear to be no hard data to back this up.
I'm sorry, but when conducting a statistical analysis, I prefer hard data to cherry-picked figures that cannot possibly show the entire picture even at that moment, and "gut feelings". Therefore, as I indicated, the only answer to the question, "Do these figures mean this game is dying?", is, "Insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion."
By all means, though, don't let me interrupt the doomcrying. It's been a popular pastime for four years now, after all...
"Science teaches us to expect -- demand -- more than just eerie mysteries. What use is a puzzle that can't be solved? Patience is fine, but I'm not going to stop asking the universe to make sense!"
...., for example, the number of people who shop at Whole Foods, then plot that against the number of people who shop at Kroger/Ralph
Nice Analogy, but comparison is not the method I am using to say the game is in dire straits. Comparison to Killing Floor,STO, Saints Row III, DCUO, Marvel are there only to say "This is whats going on at the same time of day as this data is sampled, and we can see the 48 hour period from Steam's data as well, its much much better than CO's population, by far. This is what CO could be doing. This is where it was once, long ago, on the chart, pulling in players and outputting content."
Lets compare Albertsons's instead of Whole Foods.
We can look back in time and say "These stores look kind of old fashion, and I always see more people at King Supers. This place is probably going to fold no matter how nice those cashiers are." and it did, they closed six stores in the state and laid off four hundred of those nice cashiers and deli clerks and inventory artists a few years ago. In my neighborhood they were replaced by a Whole Foods wanna be who was bought out within a year by Sprouts.
Here's a challenge, I moved to my new house in 2006, you pick from this list
which business or businesses went out of kaput just half mile from here since 2006:
Dress Barn, Shoe store, Cell phone shop, karate dojo, Black eye peas, Barnes & Noble, TGIFridays Blockbuster, Wolf Camera, Mediterranean food, Sushi, Mongolian BBQ, Mexican food, family run liquor store, This hair cut place, that hair cut place, tanning salon, Qoudoba.
Ok think about it. How many made it and how many went under?
Do you picked >? all of them failed or closed since 2006?<
then you must be getting the shine like I have, seeing things sorta clearer than other folk.
In contrast, the town all these closed stores are in passed laws against possesion of what had just been legalized by 66% of the state voters. I was curious and googled local liquor stores, 20 of them within a mile of their town hall. My theory was they were protecting those liqour sales, that the highway and airport hotels and the local colleges must feed into.
Sure enough within six months the new liquor store that takes up half of Albertson's old square footage, expanded to take up the entire square footage of the old Barnes & Nobles.
In another contrast there's a Twin Peaks across the road from there.
I showed up the first time walking in from the cold at 10PM and the place looked like the current Millennium City, containing only a handful of old people and attractive ladies in cheerleader outfits. I didn't understand how they could be in business with such a big property and so many employees and so few customers. Of course for two years I was baffled by their "Great views" slogan, thinking "of what? the highway? the parking lot?", having to meet and greet six college age girls radiating bubbly excitement before getting a bar seat told me everything.
I went back a few days later at 5pm, because the chicken sandwich was so damn good and it was wall to wall sausage and meatballs. Fifteen minute wait. Full occupancy of 1100 bodies, paying $6 a beer and $12 a chicken sandwich, minimum. It stayed like that until 10PM with ever flowing crowds of dudes piling in and out of SUVs to satifisfy their beastly appetites for food, beer, and televised sports events featuring men running after and grabbing and hugging other men for a ball. What a happytime for them.
Since 2005 twin peaks has expanded to 23 locations and won several awards.
They employ hundreds of people, they serve tens of thousands a day, mostly at lunch and dinner/happy hour/game time, with lulls deader than CO and 8 or more hours of being closed each day.
Since 2009 Champions Online has lost its original publisher (after losing K2 before that) after losing that publisher a lot of money, they removed most of the price tag from the game, made all the premium content free, cut off several continents and countries from accessing the game, removed all of the original developers, contracted the population down to a minimum and been handed off to a team with only a passing experience and/or interest in the product, among other things that do not add up to a successful business history.
It should be obvious now after beating you over the head with it again and again:
Paying population provides income that brings expansion, popularity and success while diminishing population leads to contraction, obscurity and dissolution.
There is infinite precedent for this.
Yeah but you know what they're gonna respond with Jon...the old "You can't trust them they lie so we'll keep paying!" :rolleyes:
no, but i recall being told that coh was doing very well by zwillinger too. and positron even put out that big graph about how much money the hero packs were bringing in. the devs do not generally seem to comment on such things until they are inevitable. that said, publisher matters, pw doesn't seem to close games much, ncsoft and nexon did. and the fact that they paid the expense of getting cryptic north up and running is a more positive sign than we have seen in a long time. lets just hope pw doesn't have a really down quarter and need a scapegoat.
and yeah kempo, i have thought that myself. may be why pw bought co in the first place back in the original sell off, it was a package deal with sto and in-development properties.
But I'm realistic. I'm not expecting to see anything more than we're getting now, maybe one or two 'content' things a year (I mean those little mini-missions).
Honestly what bothers me is the fact hat CO does have alot of content but it's hidden away in rotating "event missions' That are really short. I think they should stop doing this. Once they release missions like the NIghthawk, Bleak Harbinger and Fatal Error missions they should keep them there for people to play.
Also bring back the comic book series missions. Whiteout and Aftershock are still some of the best storyline missions in the game in my opinion.
As many people have stated. Advertising is the key. But before they do, Cryptic really needs to get it's game together. -Add new powers
-Add new areas -Expand older areas (like there's still a whole portion of Westside that's invisi-walled) -Expand off of Champions Lore (Where is Mechanon?) -Fix PVP (I hate it but it'd bring in the competitive players)
And I know this is wistful thinking but a City of Heroes crossover, even if it was a comic series, would be one of the Amalgam Comics of MMORPGs. lmao. That'd really bring in alot of the CoX players as well as connect those who haven't played much of that game. Besides both games were developed by cryptic at one point. I'm sure it's possible right?
But I'm realistic. I'm not expecting to see anything more than we're getting now, maybe one or two 'content' things a year (I mean those little mini-missions).
This is wisdom. If you cannot make your peace with this, it may be time to look further afield, for other entertainments. For myself, I'm enjoying this game even in its present semi-stagnant state, so I'll keep playing as long as it's here.
"Science teaches us to expect -- demand -- more than just eerie mysteries. What use is a puzzle that can't be solved? Patience is fine, but I'm not going to stop asking the universe to make sense!"
I have statements from our Community Representative and Lead Developer that they are not concerned about the present situation, yes. Both TrailTurtle and LordGar have stated that they aren't concerned for their jobs, or for the continuation of CO as a game. That is the single piece of hard data to which we, as players, have been privileged.
I honestly wouldn't put too much stock in that, though.
Years ago I worked for a struggling game company, working on a small-scale MMO (Dransik, or Ashen Empires as it was eventually renamed). We had to constantly keep a strong public face- because the scary thing about saying that you're worried about your game is that it will suddenly be a self-fulfilling prophecy. We couldn't tell the public about how many times we almost got shut down or how many times we got screwed over by the investors. We had to keep saying that things were going just fine, when it was easily evident that they weren't.
I honestly wouldn't put too much stock in that, though.
Yep, Spinny, you called it. "Doom-and-gloom" are completely believable, but assurances that we aren't doomed are just PR. :rolleyes:
"Science teaches us to expect -- demand -- more than just eerie mysteries. What use is a puzzle that can't be solved? Patience is fine, but I'm not going to stop asking the universe to make sense!"
$ - They could rent Millenium city outdoors for real world marketing!
$$- They could sell build slots. You would be able to have more than one build for the same character. Its like costume slots, but powers would change instead of costumes .
$$$ - They could sell extra powers. After learning all the possible skills for a lvl 40, you pay a ZZZZ$ fee and are able to buy another one, 2,3... Another passive slot for 2 passives combinations... very uber leet powerful characters forged by the power of money. Now that anyone can be a freeform, there are only lame reasons to be gold. People wont risk money in item or mods that can end outdated, but Im sure they will put money in pema updates for their characters.
Those changes are cheap, but they can raise the cash for a real upgrade... new lvl 50 and quests!!
Well I started it then had to help someone then closed my browser. After a very long internal expletive rant I decided to wait. I have fleshed out the idea well and will post it up here soon. It will be awesome. :cool:
Comments
I did miss it. Heard about it though. If he actually thought that CO failing would help anything at all then he is obviously mistaken. I would simply point out he was once an ardent fan.
At any rate, back on topic, I still think a bundling package would work wonders. Cryptic has 3 games that could be marketed together cheaply with ads on the 3 launcher windows. If each game is marketed equally, I don't forsee any problems the 3rd parties in STO and NWO might have with the proposal.
I mean, any 'cost' incurred is pretty much hand wavy internal accountancy, isn't it?
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
Yes, you give us data. What you don't give anybody is information.
Besides, MMO providers know their populations. It's a fundamental unit of their operations. Stop acting like you're publishing these numbers to inform Cryptic or anybody else. You're just trolling.
Here's the link. I have it bookmarked as an example to others. *glares at nextnametaken*
They're not there in the beginning, but when your story ends / Gonna last with you longer than your friends
You have no data, you have no information, you have no knowledge.
You are ignorant and think you can threaten me to leave the game.
Yes and they won't publish those numbers unless they are proud of them.
Like this
Or allow access to them so others cane publish it like this or this
If you are ashamed of yourself you hide your guilt as Cryptic does.
No you are.
You write harassing private messages and then publish them against forum rules in public.
You react to light hearted replies that the dev isn't even reading with personal attacks
and telling a player whose been here longer than you to go shove off because they
wanted to share their viewpoint in the forums, but in your opinion I'm the troll.
You are some kind of sociopath.
Put your fight with Next on pause for a moment. Do some research on The Mighty Pencil (if we are naming). It took a bizarre coaltion of forumites, in game players, and a "stormy" dev to drag that **** kicking and screaming off these boards.
Compared to the s storm that was the just past post launch griefbag attempt that many of us participated/fought in, you are hunting guppies.
Jay's post was absurd and wrong. That being said everyone has a bad day now and then, and as such he will remain on my friends list.
Can we drop the personal stuff and just get back to game talk?
Cryptic was talking about how they were two million players strong.
Must be amazing over there or just the same as here
This will be my last word on the subject.
You've been told, by me and many others, that your data is flawed, and therefore serves no purpose except to doomsay and troll, yet you persist. To suddenly claim it's "light-hearted" is preposterous.
How old were you in 1994? Because that's when I started working for a company that specializes in data analytics. I've spent 19 years making a career out of turning raw data into useful information. So when you show up here, throwing around instance transfer dialog screenshots like they carry some kind of authority because it's your data and you said so, you can be damned sure I take that as a professional insult.
They're not there in the beginning, but when your story ends / Gonna last with you longer than your friends
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
It's honestly semantics at this point. Because I make my living doing trend analysis, among other things.
The trend is, this game's playerbase has dropped since 2011. Drastically.
If you go and look at the frequency of content back then, vs. now- you'll see the trend. Over time, the population shrunk. Either along with or due to the lack of content being created.
Let's not pretend there's this massive number of people playing this game that are a quiet and loyal majority that pump money into the game.
I might be repeating myself, but I think removing character creation limits (seriously, who the eff thought that was a good idea??) coupled with diversifying and brushing up the low-level intro stuff would help retain new players through critical early play, and THEN advertising to get eyes on the game.
Because while many of us are sick of having no new content, to a new player, hey, all of it is new. And there's a lot of stuff to go out and do.
Maybe also bumping up mission xp/questionite, because I think Alerts are too much better ROI at this point. And I'd rather bump up than reduce.
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
What "available" data?
Are we talking about the kind of factual, conclusive data that no one but Cryptic has access to?
Are we talking about 24/7 monitoring of every player's online vs offline habits over a certain period of time? Hands up anyone who has written or is using such third-party data-mining software to do just that for Cryptic's server. Anyone? Anyone?
Or are we refering to Next's marvelous statistics based on instance snapshots and pure anecdotes?
Make no mistake, I am in the opinion that the game's overall population is nothing to write home about, but if someone is going to use statistics, as in actual numbers, to prove a point, either get the data or drop the damn BS.
You beat me to it.
Anybody's own two eyes could tell them that we've been bleeding population since Cryptic failed to properly follow up on the F2P transition. The population data available to us customers isn't sufficient for any detailed analysis, so even with the noblest of intentions, trying to draw a conclusion would be tilting at windmills.
That's one more reason I'm eagerly awaiting Cryptic's 2014 plans. Will there be an investment in the game that will reverse the trend, or is this a level of survival they're willing to accept?
They're not there in the beginning, but when your story ends / Gonna last with you longer than your friends
I don't like to be a doomsayer, but I'm a realist. Unlike most people, I don't need 100% hard data here. I'm not calculating the blast radius of an explosive device, I'm making a simple assessment on what I've seen.
And let's be real.
There has been no expansion to this game since I started playing in 2011. Since then, people have been screaming for new content.
As a matter of fact, let's be even more accurate- there were more people playing then, and there were more people asking for new content.
People have been asking for an expansion for years. Star Trek got one. We didn't. If we've gone this long, I don't think 'recovery' is the word we'll use. More like 'breathing and alive, but not kicking'.
As much as I want to have faith in this game, I don't have faith when I don't see it pay off- and so far we've seen nothing pay off. Look at this game and how you sell it to someone. How can you pitch it?
Keep in mind that most people love this game because of the Characters you can make. That is a small portion of what a solid game needs. There is, by far and large, not much else to appeal to people.
I've recommended this game to multiple people. The record for any of them sticking with it is 30 days. It's not that CO has a hard time appealing to people, it fails miserably at keeping them interested.
As for data... I realize data is limited, but from what I understand there is a vast amount of work in data analysis concerning how to interpret and evaluate based on limited data.
Limited data isn't NO data, but your answers come with provisos and limitations.
(At least, as far as I understand as _not_ a professional analyst)
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
Then we have to find a definition of "active". Then we have to be able to monitor the activity for, say, a month solid to see if the activity is trending upward, downward, or remaining static. Also, Next keeps claiming to know how many people have signed up, played the tutorial, then quit and uninstalled the game. I have no idea where he's getting this data, as all he's shared with us is screenshots of the Change Zones screen (which, one should recall, never shows data for the zone one is in at the time). I can say that I frequently encounter other players, sufficiently that, for example, while leveling Pandemic through the Desert, I was in competition with at least one other person for nuclear bombs to disassemble. (Fortunately, there are always plenty of Radiation Eaters to go around...) There may have been more than one; I can only confirm seeing one other disassembling weapons, but there was at least one more person there. (It's hard to see across the Atomic Wasteland, what with the radioactive miasma hanging in the air.)
One could conclude the game is dying; one could conclude that it has declined to a level of population that is self-sustaining; one could even conclude that there's some massive increase in population waiting just around the corner, were one given to self-delusion. The point is that none of these conclusions can be properly supported with the available data. It seems probable that the devs have access to this data, however, and they don't seem particularly concerned.
- David Brin, "Those Eyes"
Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
but you have sufficient information to determine that Cryptic is not concerned about the present situation?
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
You got their attention. They read what you typed... hell, they probably read it a long time ago and have learned to recognize a "this same stuff again" thread title and probably don't bother reading it anymore.
It's hubris to think that the only possible result of them reading what you're typing would be them suddenly taking your suggestions, or really even doing anything. If you think about it reasonably, you would realize that the very fact that you and many others have typed all this stuff over and over and over again and not gotten any response means that the folks in charge do in fact know something that you don't.
In fact, all communications from above would indicate this to be the truth... remember that time that TT actually came out and said that there are no plans to shut CO down? How frequently would you like him to make this announcement to assure you that there still are no plans to shut it down? Yearly? Monthly? Weekly? Yes, City of Heroes scared us all to some extent, but it's no reason to go into a permanent state of panic.
Don't get me wrong, I support giving suggestions. What I don't support is all this "We gotta save the company because the people in charge can't do it!" nonsense. Patronizing people by calling them incompetent and then repeating what you think they should do while they ignore you is just about the least reasonable way to go about getting someone to do something.
At some point, people might realize that they're giving suggestions for a problem that doesn't actually exist. At some point, people might realize that the tone of their suggestions is why they're falling on deaf ears.
Like, if I had started off this post by saying that you're too incompetent to post on the forums correctly and that you need to do what I say or you'll lose the ability to post (even though you know for a fact that that will not happen) would that have magically made you listen to me anymore than you're planning to right now?
My super cool CC build and how to use it.
- David Brin, "Those Eyes"
Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
Yeah but you know what they're gonna respond with Jon...the old "You can't trust them they lie so we'll keep paying!" :rolleyes:
My super cool CC build and how to use it.
They could also be misinformed. If PWE board was getting ready to shut down the game in 6 months, they might not tell anyone down the hierarchy. After all, if news gets out to players, that's lost revenue before they are ready.
Finally, even if it's absolutely true, 'the game won't be closing in the near future' doesn't tell you the game is doing WELL, or that the company isn't concerned that it isn't doing better.
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
I'm really confused why they don't spend any effort trying to cross-promote, though. That's really puzzling.
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
She won't make anything out of it, she's afraid to gather the data for herself. She's had almost two months since her first break down over the numbers to at least get data every time she logs in and logs out.
To answer about 1994, I was six years deep into an advertising/graphic design career, working myself mad at two jobs plus freelancing while pushing everyone I talked to about "the internet" , "world wide web", "techno rave scene" k and "Video Toaster"
By the end of the year I'd settled down in a new city running a busy night shift producing graphics for all of the city's big advertising agencies and the most of the states Casinos, including the state lottery.
Long Story Shortened...a lot.
I've seen similar stagnation, mismanagement, poor decision making, misdirected work efforts, lack of publicity, lack of impact of efforts, employee rollover and loss of population crush and kill at least a dozen companies over two decades.
I was there in person and every time I pointed out the ineptness I got the same treatment people here give me : denial and angry accusations that have nothing to do with the data or the day to day situation.
The people who do that have nothing to back up their argument except claims that they are experts because they said so.
"Suggestions for a problem that doesn't actually exist?"
Seriously? We need more people playing, and more content. Pointing this out is not hubris. Who called anyone incompetent? Have you not noticed ads here and on your launcher window for other Cryptic products? Asking them to expand on that isn't nonsense by any means.
As to the rest of your post I get that you feel this is repetitive, and sure, it does feel that way, but there are just too many strawmen to address it point by point. I'll just say this; I don't think anyone is under the delusion that one person's opinion holds more weight than another's. If you don't understand why people are asking for this in a discussion forum, I have no idea how to respond.
Now if you're trying to get someone's attention by commenting on this, I understand completely. I eagerly await the announcement of Spinny's and Next's nuptials, and can only hope (desperately) that the wedding registry is at a business I frequent regularly. Lastly, as I said before, PLEASE, don't be too agressive or seem too eager lest you scare him away! I think you kids have a legitimate chance at real happiness here!
I like how you suggest that your personal history has no relation to whatever is being discussed and yet you go into a long-winded rant about it anyway. :rolleyes:
Here's my suggestion: When they officially announce that the company and/or game is closing, you can start making the "I TOLD YOU SO!" posts.
Until then, the tinfoil-hatting does no one any favors.
In fact, I think CO isn't in maintenance mode yet.
I don't think the game is doing well, I think PWE is unwilling to put significant energy into the game over more lucrative properties. I also think PWE is playing it too safe and CO could be a lot more viable with marketing and some key strategic developments.
My commentary about 'what ifs' is that for all that we don't have 'proof' that population is down, we also don't have 'proof' that the game is doing ok.
That is, I think we have sufficient evidence population is really bad and the game isn't doing particularly well, but also that PWE hasn't given up on it completely.
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
We just have to keep our expectations from them realistic at this point. We are not getting a whole new zone with a whole bunch of new mission chains and lairs. Just don't make it a personal expectation. Whatever budgeting PWE is giving Cryptic for this game's development, it's definitely minimal compared to the other two games and the trend is clearly there, because as a product CO has proven itself to be an investment that's failed but not entirely so.
It's just enough for us to get bite-sized content in the form of events and alerts. Expect nothing more at this point. The most I'd go with my expectation is a new AP but that's stretching it a little really, even though personally I feel that a new AP is an acceptable substitute for the lack a new zone and would definitely be a crowd drawer.
I really have nothing against Gentleman_Crush but I have not had any respect for his word since he very strongly told a group of us that there was no Questionite/Zen like exchange coming when I said there was in December 2011. I felt at the time that it was a lie, and didn't press it, I figured he had his reasons to hold down rumors. It still doesn't sit well with me.
Gentelman_Crush, also said then that the churn rate was just fine and nothing to be worried about. By the end of December two instances of Canada Crisis became one instance with one person an hour if you were lucky. Millennium City dropped down to 150 players around 1AM back then. It hits that around 11PM now. Doesn't matter to him, he doesn't play on the live server.
I was going to end my sub when CO's environmental artist spent time in chat with the people giving them action figures because our Community Representative had been fired because of the toxic forum users.
Feeling the holiday spirit, I subbed again. Right after the holiday he was no longer working on the game , we got free to play moderation in the forum, and Gentleman_Crush killed hundreds of accounts with his changes to items and stats and whatever. So much rage and quitting they restarted the forums to hide it all.
If Trailturtle told you "it looks bad" and you spit that out in the forums, like you did, he'd be fired.
Why would he tell you anything but what would save his bacon?
Would you risk your rent for some dude who doesn't even pay his bill every month like yourself?
Let me remind you that everyone at City of Heroes thought their game was super duper stable and full of profits. The people making the game thought their jobs were secure. They likely told some grubby no money free to play person like yourself that the new expansion was going to bring in lots of people and things were looking great.
Look if you feel people are whizzing on your information, just rely on yourself and ignore it. Since we're playing "what I do for a living" this month on the forums, ok I'll play: I'm a field biologist. Your info seems fine to me. Too me and my eye they are legitmate samples. If instead you selected one particular timeframe and only posted results in a narrow fashion, I'd be screaming false positive as well. And there is the problem:
Not enough range to make any real determination beyond what I would call a "we could use some more people" flag and file.
Anyways i'm rambling so tldr I think more than one person appreciates the info you are providing, but gdam dude lets not have any metrics that use language like that. You're supposed to be a hero. Act like it.
If there's ever a moment during which I so look forward to seeing a particular someone's posting rights revoked, that should be it (and I'm not refering to you lafury).
I think he was just having a bad day, and he and sills could at least get a subsidised beer summit out of all this. Don't ruin my master plan of furthered playerbase intoxication!
At any rate, my point (nicely illustrated by jmach10) is that the forums are one thing, and the game is another. Jenny and I agree here rarely. Flip side in game Jenny is on my fl and one of the first ppl in game I would ask for an opinion. Using this space too point out that the forums and game should be seperate.
zsorry for the derail Jen, this was brought too you courtesy of people who can decide multiple days into a shutdown to change one's status from necessary too non essential. Well that and booze.
How.
Dare.
You.
There are many, MANY SNACKS, that would go well with this thread. Chips, crackerjacks, s'mores, subs, hoagies, grinders, cookies, brownies, etc etc etc ad naseum.
TAKE YOUR POPCORN FASCISM AND PEDDLE IT ELSEWHERE, CORN FARMER!
(kidding, and this post makes me realize i've had enough. Also-goldfish crackerws, those are really good)
HOW DARE YOU QUESTION MY CHOICE OF SNACKS WHILE WATCHING THREADS CRASH AND BURN HORRIBLY.
I will continue to eat my popcorn in defiance!
(Also kidding, but this thread is going to ****.)
JUST...WANTED.....(gurgle) a decent sample size sampling the chips!!!! (argle)
YOU NEVER GAVE THEM.......(GUTSHOT SIGH)...a fighting chance......
I I gurgle croak aaaannnd scene.....GO ON W/OUT ME!
Let's be real. All of us that have been here since 2011 or longer know the population has shrunk drastically. You don't need exact data when the market provides relatively accurate data points. The general lack of supply or demand (as in both) blatantly shows an ever decreasing population - unless of course, you fail to see how supply and demand correlate with population.
Also, it would make no sense PR wise to express worry whether or not they had personal reason to.
While there's still a potential profitability to this game, it will likely never happen as the powers that be know the risks and have deemed it a poor investment whereas other projects still have far more potential at much lower risk.
CO has never lived up to its potential, and a lot of us held out hoping that it may one day at least come close. Time and again we've been shown that's not going to be the case.
Back in the day everyone was upset because they felt CO was having its resources bled into STO and NWO's development.
Has anyone considered that one reason why TT and LG aren't concerned for CO is that despite the low population (and the statement from the devs on these forums that CO remains profitable) CO runs on the same servers so those two games are helping keep CO afloat now? It's possible CO's existence and finances don't exist in a vacuum.
*teleports away*
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Serving since September, 2009 / 65 Characters, 63 Level 40's
Before gloom-and-doom can be cried, we must first have access to data which we simply cannot have, for fear of compromising account security.
I also note that Next assumes that a rather large percentage of players go through the tutorial, then quit forever; however, there appear to be no hard data to back this up.
I'm sorry, but when conducting a statistical analysis, I prefer hard data to cherry-picked figures that cannot possibly show the entire picture even at that moment, and "gut feelings". Therefore, as I indicated, the only answer to the question, "Do these figures mean this game is dying?", is, "Insufficient data for a meaningful conclusion."
By all means, though, don't let me interrupt the doomcrying. It's been a popular pastime for four years now, after all...
- David Brin, "Those Eyes"
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Nice Analogy, but comparison is not the method I am using to say the game is in dire straits. Comparison to Killing Floor,STO, Saints Row III, DCUO, Marvel are there only to say "This is whats going on at the same time of day as this data is sampled, and we can see the 48 hour period from Steam's data as well, its much much better than CO's population, by far. This is what CO could be doing. This is where it was once, long ago, on the chart, pulling in players and outputting content."
Lets compare Albertsons's instead of Whole Foods.
We can look back in time and say "These stores look kind of old fashion, and I always see more people at King Supers. This place is probably going to fold no matter how nice those cashiers are." and it did, they closed six stores in the state and laid off four hundred of those nice cashiers and deli clerks and inventory artists a few years ago. In my neighborhood they were replaced by a Whole Foods wanna be who was bought out within a year by Sprouts.
Here's a challenge, I moved to my new house in 2006, you pick from this list
which business or businesses went out of kaput just half mile from here since 2006:
Dress Barn, Shoe store, Cell phone shop, karate dojo, Black eye peas, Barnes & Noble, TGIFridays Blockbuster, Wolf Camera, Mediterranean food, Sushi, Mongolian BBQ, Mexican food, family run liquor store, This hair cut place, that hair cut place, tanning salon, Qoudoba.
Ok think about it. How many made it and how many went under?
Do you picked >? all of them failed or closed since 2006?<
then you must be getting the shine like I have, seeing things sorta clearer than other folk.
In contrast, the town all these closed stores are in passed laws against possesion of what had just been legalized by 66% of the state voters. I was curious and googled local liquor stores, 20 of them within a mile of their town hall. My theory was they were protecting those liqour sales, that the highway and airport hotels and the local colleges must feed into.
Sure enough within six months the new liquor store that takes up half of Albertson's old square footage, expanded to take up the entire square footage of the old Barnes & Nobles.
In another contrast there's a Twin Peaks across the road from there.
I showed up the first time walking in from the cold at 10PM and the place looked like the current Millennium City, containing only a handful of old people and attractive ladies in cheerleader outfits. I didn't understand how they could be in business with such a big property and so many employees and so few customers. Of course for two years I was baffled by their "Great views" slogan, thinking "of what? the highway? the parking lot?", having to meet and greet six college age girls radiating bubbly excitement before getting a bar seat told me everything.
I went back a few days later at 5pm, because the chicken sandwich was so damn good and it was wall to wall sausage and meatballs. Fifteen minute wait. Full occupancy of 1100 bodies, paying $6 a beer and $12 a chicken sandwich, minimum. It stayed like that until 10PM with ever flowing crowds of dudes piling in and out of SUVs to satifisfy their beastly appetites for food, beer, and televised sports events featuring men running after and grabbing and hugging other men for a ball. What a happytime for them.
Since 2005 twin peaks has expanded to 23 locations and won several awards.
They employ hundreds of people, they serve tens of thousands a day, mostly at lunch and dinner/happy hour/game time, with lulls deader than CO and 8 or more hours of being closed each day.
Since 2009 Champions Online has lost its original publisher (after losing K2 before that) after losing that publisher a lot of money, they removed most of the price tag from the game, made all the premium content free, cut off several continents and countries from accessing the game, removed all of the original developers, contracted the population down to a minimum and been handed off to a team with only a passing experience and/or interest in the product, among other things that do not add up to a successful business history.
It should be obvious now after beating you over the head with it again and again:
Paying population provides income that brings expansion, popularity and success while diminishing population leads to contraction, obscurity and dissolution.
There is infinite precedent for this.
no, but i recall being told that coh was doing very well by zwillinger too. and positron even put out that big graph about how much money the hero packs were bringing in. the devs do not generally seem to comment on such things until they are inevitable. that said, publisher matters, pw doesn't seem to close games much, ncsoft and nexon did. and the fact that they paid the expense of getting cryptic north up and running is a more positive sign than we have seen in a long time. lets just hope pw doesn't have a really down quarter and need a scapegoat.
and yeah kempo, i have thought that myself. may be why pw bought co in the first place back in the original sell off, it was a package deal with sto and in-development properties.
But I'm realistic. I'm not expecting to see anything more than we're getting now, maybe one or two 'content' things a year (I mean those little mini-missions).
Also bring back the comic book series missions. Whiteout and Aftershock are still some of the best storyline missions in the game in my opinion.
As many people have stated. Advertising is the key. But before they do, Cryptic really needs to get it's game together.
-Add new powers
-Add new areas
-Expand older areas (like there's still a whole portion of Westside that's invisi-walled)
-Expand off of Champions Lore (Where is Mechanon?)
-Fix PVP (I hate it but it'd bring in the competitive players)
And I know this is wistful thinking but a City of Heroes crossover, even if it was a comic series, would be one of the Amalgam Comics of MMORPGs. lmao. That'd really bring in alot of the CoX players as well as connect those who haven't played much of that game. Besides both games were developed by cryptic at one point. I'm sure it's possible right?
I completely assumed, with On Alert, that they just hadn't gotten around to that and it was going to be a month or two away.
And here we are, a year and a half later.
Seriously, Cryptic, wtf?
(Note that I don't like pvp that much, but some people love it and Cryptic just drug it out back and shot it in the head)
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?
- David Brin, "Those Eyes"
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I honestly wouldn't put too much stock in that, though.
Years ago I worked for a struggling game company, working on a small-scale MMO (Dransik, or Ashen Empires as it was eventually renamed). We had to constantly keep a strong public face- because the scary thing about saying that you're worried about your game is that it will suddenly be a self-fulfilling prophecy. We couldn't tell the public about how many times we almost got shut down or how many times we got screwed over by the investors. We had to keep saying that things were going just fine, when it was easily evident that they weren't.
- David Brin, "Those Eyes"
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$$- They could sell build slots. You would be able to have more than one build for the same character. Its like costume slots, but powers would change instead of costumes .
$$$ - They could sell extra powers. After learning all the possible skills for a lvl 40, you pay a ZZZZ$ fee and are able to buy another one, 2,3... Another passive slot for 2 passives combinations... very uber leet powerful characters forged by the power of money. Now that anyone can be a freeform, there are only lame reasons to be gold. People wont risk money in item or mods that can end outdated, but Im sure they will put money in pema updates for their characters.
Those changes are cheap, but they can raise the cash for a real upgrade... new lvl 50 and quests!!
In what world would a company ever NOT be assuring us we aren't doomed?
Wicks and Things: NW-DI4FMZRR4 : The Fenwick merchant family has lost a caravan! Can you help?
Beggar's Hollow: NW-DR6YG4J2L : Someone, or something, has stolen away many of the Fenwicks' children! Can you find out what happened to them?
Into the Fen Wood: NW-DL89DRG7B : Enter the heart of the forest. Can you discover the secret of the Fen Wood?