An Ode to the MYTHICAL VTOL

ccarmichael07

Oh tempest that draws the tears from my eyes, how you scorn thee.

40 times I have tried to wrap my fingers around you, only to grasp water balloons.

Why must you mock me so?

Fate has divined to barr me from obtaining you sleek jet-like physique, a payback for all the vehicles and starships I ever got with hardly any effort.

Alas, it is simply not meant to be.

---

The first vehicle I have truly wanted in this game, for a character I built that would be so fitting for it, and it still eludes me.

I think my hatred of the lockboxes has never run so high. In all the times I've attempted to gain a vehicle or starship from one of these frustrating boxes, I've never gone past about 10-15 keys. Good luck I guess, up until now.

I have yet to actually see one of these out in the game world yet. Is the drop rate on the VTOL even more horrendous than usual, or is fate balancing the scales for my past transgressions? I have to think the drop rate is worse than usual, as it seems no one has any for sale either, which is highly unusual.

/sigh

biffsmackwell

I saw one today during the invasion.

Also I've spent close to 100 bucks on lock boxes that contained vehicles and have never gotten a single one. Already your luck is much better than mine.

crypticbuxom

Try opening 200 more. You might get it if they didn't reduce drop chance by now.

flamingbunnyman

I estimate the drop rate on vehicles and become devices to be about 0.25% each.

That means that to get a vehicle, on average you would have to open four hundred boxes. Of course, that doesn't guarantee one every 400 boxes; you could get one in your fourth box (as I heard someone announce on the first day they were out), or you could open a thousand and not see any.

I'm still opening boxes on live in hopes of getting one, but I'm also saving some of the Drifter Salvage so that I can grab one should they offer a variant in the Drifter Store.

supersharks

Opened 20 today for nothing.

If I had seen the post above I wouldn't have wasted my time/money on a 0.25% drop rate.

Ridiculous.

I wouldn't feel quite so bad if there was a drifter salvage version.

zahinder

You know, guys, they're going to keep doing this if you keep getting suckered into it.

Jeez.

flamingbunnyman

Ironically, they could make even more money if they made the drop rates better.

Think about it: Would you buy 400 keys for this plane (or any other become or vehicle they have or might release)? A lot of people won't even buy one key at those odds.

If it was a 5% chance, would you buy 20 keys to get it? I think a LOT more people would at those rates. Twenty times as many? I don't know. But somewhere, there's a balance that gives us better odds and them more money.

vorshoth

There is a bit of Pavlovian compulsion going on though.
Why low chance works better than high chance for some, according to an old study I barely recall beyond the base details

Let's say we have three groups of hamster.
One has a pellet of food drop every time they pull the lever.
The other has a pellet of food come whenever they go for a run of a certain length then press the lever.
The third has a pellet appear at random presses of the lever.

Group 1: presses lever when desiring food, never more.
Group 2: adjusts behaviour to get food as required.
Group 3: loses it's mind and presses that lever like it's 1999 and it stops the Y2K bug occurring.

In short, low chances with a degree of random are a bit more attractive to spend capital, in this case, time spent that could have been used getting food more reliably, than high chances...
But there is a tolerance to this. Too low chance, and the hamster will give up. Too high, and it will only press when it absolutely needs it.
I think this gets weird when it's something you technically don't need in this game, like the vehicles, but I don't have the funds to test hamsters liking something trivial but enjoyable like tiny trading cards or something.

ccarmichael07

flamingbunnyman wrote: »

I estimate the drop rate on vehicles and become devices to be about 0.25% each.

That means that to get a vehicle, on average you would have to open four hundred boxes. Of course, that doesn't guarantee one every 400 boxes; you could get one in your fourth box (as I heard someone announce on the first day they were out), or you could open a thousand and not see any.

I'm still opening boxes on live in hopes of getting one, but I'm also saving some of the Drifter Salvage so that I can grab one should they offer a variant in the Drifter Store.

Good Lord, if that is close to the real drop percentage, that's incredibly bad.

I had assumed it was something like 2% to 5%.

Ugh. I'm done. I like the looks of the VTOL, but not that much, and I've already spent far more than I wanted to trying to get it.

flamingbunnyman

Remember that you don't have to spend cash on keys. You can use Resources to buy the keys, or Questionite to get the Zen for keys. That's how I've gotten all but a handful of my keys, and I've opened a few hundred boxes.

hidingcat

flamingbunnyman wrote: »

I estimate the drop rate on vehicles and become devices to be about 0.25% each.

That means that to get a vehicle, on average you would have to open four hundred boxes. Of course, that doesn't guarantee one every 400 boxes; you could get one in your fourth box (as I heard someone announce on the first day they were out), or you could open a thousand and not see any.

I'm still opening boxes on live in hopes of getting one, but I'm also saving some of the Drifter Salvage so that I can grab one should they offer a variant in the Drifter Store.

That's not quite how the probability works.

If percent chance of VTOL dropping is 0.25%, that means you have a 99.75% chance of it not dropping.

So if you open two together, you get a 99.75%^2 chance of it not dropping at all.

400 boxes means 99.75%^400 chance of it not dropping at all, which conversely gives you 63% chance of it dropping at least once.

flamingbunnyman

Yes, you are correct. However, on average, one out of every 400 boxes will be that one with the 0.25%.

So if the players, as a whole, opened 1,000,000 boxes, about 2,500 would contain vehicles.

chalupaoffury

Yeah, I'm the one that got it in 4 keys. I then opened about 40 more boxes and nothing. My recommendation is instead of buying keys to open boxes, buy keys and trade them for the vtol. If that's *all* you're after (wasn't the case, for me, I also wanted the gear and mods and some drifter salvage), it'll be way cheaper. pretty sure you can flat out buy it for like 20 bucks most of the time, in trade.

flamingbunnyman

chalupaoffury wrote: »

Yeah, I'm the one that got it in 4 keys.

You're a jerk.

I only mean that in terms of lockboxes. Otherwise, you seem like a standup fellow.

hidingcat

chalupaoffury wrote: »

Yeah, I'm the one that got it in 4 keys. I then opened about 40 more boxes and nothing. My recommendation is instead of buying keys to open boxes, buy keys and trade them for the vtol. If that's *all* you're after (wasn't the case, for me, I also wanted the gear and mods and some drifter salvage), it'll be way cheaper. pretty sure you can flat out buy it for like 20 bucks most of the time, in trade.

I'd love to, but they don't seem to be on sale. Does anyone know the average selling price of these?

gerberatetra

I got one in 6 keys..

I immediately gave away to my best bud.

I really don't care much for any of the vehicles currently available.

I want a bike darn it.



*I don't spend real money on the f*cking things, I use my stipend.

gerberatetra

hidingcat wrote: »

I'd love to, but they don't seem to be on sale. Does anyone know the average selling price of these?

I saw one, ummm like 6k?

But I bet you they'd go for more

chaelk

Taco, basic problem with buying them in game, is if they aren't dropping for anyone, who is going to be selling them.

my score so far
about 150 boxes, maybe more(2 accts)
no vehicle
no purple
3 blue boxes- gloves, gloves,gloves
about 20 green boxes- for alts
too many Blasted noise visualizers, I think they are my highest drop as I had over 70 of them

salvage,
198+ 206 +92 + 83=579(2 characters were opening)
I got a truly ridiculous amount of 10's

toy boxes, costume peices and af's.. I got a brain bot and immediately thought of Dr Cerebellum and posted it to them.

ccarmichael07

chalupaoffury wrote: »

Yeah, I'm the one that got it in 4 keys. I then opened about 40 more boxes and nothing. My recommendation is instead of buying keys to open boxes, buy keys and trade them for the vtol. If that's *all* you're after (wasn't the case, for me, I also wanted the gear and mods and some drifter salvage), it'll be way cheaper. pretty sure you can flat out buy it for like 20 bucks most of the time, in trade.

I've advertised all over the Zone chat. It seems no one has a spare to sell, or at least not at a time when I've been on.

If I ever see one advertised though...

These lockboxes are for the birds. Cryptic might be making money with them, but I hope the Ghost of Christmas Past pays them a visit this year and reminds them about the pursuit of wealth at the cost of their fellow man.

Or something like that. :biggrin:

determind

The drop rate on lockboxes is bad enough I won't spend cash to buy Zen for them anymore. Its all Questionite conversion for me now or they just sit in the shared bank in perpetuity. If the consolation prizes were better I'd reconsider but mostly they are just good for crafting skill ups.

guyhumual

I couldn't care less about the vehicles, even the new VTOL (which looks like a normal vehicle for a change), but I spent my stipend on keys to open this lockbox anyway . . . why? To get the forking costume pieces that only seem to show up in lockboxes these days. 10 keys, not one costume piece. No vehicle. No become device. No legion pieces. Less then 40 drifter salvage. 25 rank 3 mods 6 times, 5 rank 6 mods once (Sentinel's Brooch, so basically worthless), 25 rank 4 mods once (ego so not horrible but not good either), 25 rank 5 mods twice (presence and Con). Which means I got one good pull for my 10 tries.

I've given up on the sharkfin set now. I accept the fact that I'll never own it. I admit that I should have known better then to waste zen on the shady carnival game that is the lockbox system but seeing the chance at new costume pieces suckered me in.

You'd think that they'd be ashamed to call 25 rank 3 mods a prize but whatever, that's sour grapes talking I suppose. I should have known better: disappointment seems to be what Cryptic strives for these days.

variatas

I got one when I was opening 3 boxes to get the last 5 Salvage I needed for a Fire Ant, and I could be persuaded to part with it.