The probability for your failure is low, but there:
p<success>= .05 ==> p<fail> = .95
So to get you result's - fail this 75 times in a row - chance:
p<fail>^75 = .95^75 = .0213
Or: of 47 attempts to do that upgrade, one will go as awkward as yours. Other way round is valid, too: in 98% of cases you should have had your success. But "impossible" it is not.
Math is well understood .. I think the real question is should the game improve your changes with successive rolls? I think from a business/customer satisfaction standpoint, it should. Less complaining on the forums, less people giving up altogether.
kaiserschmarrnMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 390
edited May 2015
The best solution to the upgrading mess would be to allow use to use more wards.
Let's say you get a 10% chance on an upgrade, add 10 wards to it and it becomes a 100% chance. This also won't break the market since 100 wards and 1 coal ward cost roughly the same.
You probably don't want to hear it, but you're wrong!
It is mathematically possible to fail 75 times in a row with a chance of 5% success, because each attempt is independent from all others.
Those 5% don't add up ... you won't have a sure success after 20 attempts.
Regards
Your math is right,sort of they don't add up BUT and here is where you have to understand probability, yes it is possible to fail 75 times with a 5% chance BUT the odds of that occurring are astronomical, like 1 in a billion
Your math is right,sort of they don't add up BUT and here is where you have to understand probability, yes it is possible to fail 75 times with a 5% chance BUT the odds of that occurring are astronomical, like 1 in a billion
Well if we put it this way. Nightmare inferno boxes were once bugged to very commonly give mounts. Now that was fixed because it was extremely obvious and affected their income. I'm not sure we can expect for the code to be right and that they'd fix it if it was wrong (after all they did miss it when it was previously reported before it went live. I'd say there's way to many streaks in this game to be "mathematically realistic"
I'm so sorry guys (to all those complaining), I've stolen all your luck.
I fused a rank 10 on my first attempt, and about half an hour, fused a rank 11 on my 2nd attempt. But then I'm a half glass full kinda guy, and only choose to remember the times that I got lucky, and don't want to remember the times that used more wards that it 'should'.
All in all, if I have records of all my fusing in this game (from 95%-1%), I would say I'm beating the odds by a very small margin or very close to the exact odds.
Have the gear and skills, but lack the friends to play with? Come and apply for Essence of Aggression. We have been here and strong since beta. (Immature, rude, and arrogant people will not be accepted)
Don't listen to those who pretend they know what they are talking about. They may indeed know what they are talking about, but what they are talking about has nothing to do with this.
This game has trending rolls, simple as that. If you fail multiple times in a row, wait a bit before trying again.
The probability for your failure is low, but there:
p<success>= .05 ==> p<fail> = .95
So to get you result's - fail this 75 times in a row - chance:
p<fail>^75 = .95^75 = .0213
Or: of 47 attempts to do that upgrade, one will go as awkward as yours. Other way round is valid, too: in 98% of cases you should have had your success. But "impossible" it is not.
You know its funny how I pointed this out early on in this thread and its funny that no one listened.
might just be that ppl in this thread are the unlucky ones, doubt ppl getting on 1st try would come here
It took me 22 wards at 10%. And I've batted a thousand on some items when I was supposed to have something like a 60% chance. Don't think, for whatever reason, that the odds are always listed correctly.
It took me 22 wards at 10%. And I've batted a thousand on some items when I was supposed to have something like a 60% chance. Don't think, for whatever reason, that the odds are always listed correctly.
used 150 preservation for 4 legendary upgrades and 3 rank 11 starting from rank 10.
not happy but definitely in the average result.
the problem arises when you waste 60 preservation to get a rank 6.
Some people did test the rng on preview and it does what it says, ie a 5% chance is really 5%. Bad luck happens. There will inevitably be people with an unusual number of attempts before a success, given how many people play this game. They're also more likely to come here and complain.
Something making the RNG more forgiving after x attempts would be welcome though.
my personal experience yesterday : I sunk 14 wards in a 25% upgrade chance rank 7 to 8, 14 ! and it still did not work
cryptics math is broken s.h.i.t. like lots of things in game
the math to fail like this is: 3/4 ^14 = 1,7% so i just do not have much luck, hmm Cräptic?
the OP with 75 x5% is nearly same 2,1% chance to have this special kind of "luck", and you did succed I didn´t
no don´t tell me about testing the RNG, its broken as lots of things and everyone knows it, so don´t defend this cräp please, since my personal testings of RNG shows that its craäp
I experience these epic fails not the first time, and the background is obvious-pay more money to get equip upgraded , don´t be so naive
Comments
p<success>= .05 ==> p<fail> = .95
So to get you result's - fail this 75 times in a row - chance:
p<fail>^75 = .95^75 = .0213
Or: of 47 attempts to do that upgrade, one will go as awkward as yours. Other way round is valid, too: in 98% of cases you should have had your success. But "impossible" it is not.
Let's say you get a 10% chance on an upgrade, add 10 wards to it and it becomes a 100% chance. This also won't break the market since 100 wards and 1 coal ward cost roughly the same.
Your math is right,sort of they don't add up BUT and here is where you have to understand probability, yes it is possible to fail 75 times with a 5% chance BUT the odds of that occurring are astronomical, like 1 in a billion
Bull****. See above: it's 2%. End of story.
I fused a rank 10 on my first attempt, and about half an hour, fused a rank 11 on my 2nd attempt. But then I'm a half glass full kinda guy, and only choose to remember the times that I got lucky, and don't want to remember the times that used more wards that it 'should'.
All in all, if I have records of all my fusing in this game (from 95%-1%), I would say I'm beating the odds by a very small margin or very close to the exact odds.
Have the gear and skills, but lack the friends to play with? Come and apply for Essence of Aggression. We have been here and strong since beta. (Immature, rude, and arrogant people will not be accepted)
This game has trending rolls, simple as that. If you fail multiple times in a row, wait a bit before trying again.
You know its funny how I pointed this out early on in this thread and its funny that no one listened.
thank you, this is constructive post here
used 150 preservation for 4 legendary upgrades and 3 rank 11 starting from rank 10.
not happy but definitely in the average result.
the problem arises when you waste 60 preservation to get a rank 6.
Something making the RNG more forgiving after x attempts would be welcome though.
cryptics math is broken s.h.i.t. like lots of things in game
the math to fail like this is: 3/4 ^14 = 1,7% so i just do not have much luck, hmm Cräptic?
the OP with 75 x5% is nearly same 2,1% chance to have this special kind of "luck", and you did succed I didn´t
no don´t tell me about testing the RNG, its broken as lots of things and everyone knows it, so don´t defend this cräp please, since my personal testings of RNG shows that its craäp
I experience these epic fails not the first time, and the background is obvious-pay more money to get equip upgraded , don´t be so naive