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Zen market
frodnikk
Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 20 Arc User
Zen market 35m and raising... how much well have to wait for zen..I guess paying customers are a rare event atm and there is no cure for the pc economy...any suggestion on this will be helpful i guess.
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First, people are uncertain about the future - they realize that the game will change a lot, and they are not certain if it will continue to appeal to them. This makes people hesitant to put real money into the game, which decreases the supply of Zen
Second, those who have decided they will continue to play have realized they might want some new items from the Zen store, as former "BiS" gear may no longer be BiS. This may mean new companions, or just more wards to refine a full set of enchants from R14 to R15. This increases the demand for Zen.
What we are basically seeing is a textbook example of hidden inflation, where the true value of an item or service is much higher than the "official" value, which results in a decline in quality or availability. This is essentially the same as the situation in some parts of the former East Block in the early 80s - a loaf of bread might cost just a few kopecks, but it really was meaningless as the shelves were empty.
In our case, the issue is really that the real value of Zen is much higher than the artificial cap of 500. Removing the cap will not fix the situation. It would mean that people would be able to exchange Zen for AD and vice versa, but it would severely hurt the F2P crowd, and have a few other bad side-effects.
There is a third issue, which makes the problem much worse. That is the fact that if you have Zen, it makes no sense to exchange it for AD right away. Instead, you wait - sit on your Zen until there is a Zen store sale, then buy something like wards, popular companions or runic bags and sell those items on the AH. This will basically net you 800-1000 AD per Zen, which much more accurately reflects the "true" value of Zen. You then convert that AD back into Zen and repeat the cycle. This is an effortless way to earn tens of millions of AD.
There are ways to fix this, but it is a multi-step process. I have described all the necessary steps before, but I feel it's just a waste of time to repeat myself.
Yule (Barb): 72k : Siren (TR): 78k : Torun (DC): 73k : Siren OP (OP): 76k : Siren SW (SW): 78k : Modern (F): 80k : Cherry1 (CW) : 68k Siren HR (HR): 78k
The rate used to be 1M/day.
For reasons outlined above people do not want to throw money at the game currently.
It will get better when mod 16 launches - as long as it is not a complete disaster. Which of course could happen
curse you MOD16 CURSE YOU!!!
(an no it aint nonea this "supply and demand" bs... well at least wasnt but might slightly be now as ppl aint wantin to spend real money but want stuff off the zen it was the radical changes announced an seen on preview for mod 16 that made alllotta the spendin real money player go (brakes squeal) and stop buyin zrn to convert to ad)
(an ya i did use double parenthesize... boom mind blow lol)
One aspect or reason is that zen is worth more than 500 ad per 1 zen. The average player is aware of this fact so the incentive to trade their zen for ad results in a loss. Instead what these players who buy zen do, is purchase packs and sell items out of those packs on the AH which nets them the actual value of zen they spend for ad return.
It has been proposed by Cryptic to prevent players from selling zen items on the AH since it has resulted in players bypassing the exchange.
However; I have suggested that they raise the cap from 500 to 2000. But players who don't understand economy think this would ruin the economy. It wouldn't because players are already getting their AD worth of Zen by selling those pack items.
The lowest the Zen exchange has gotten was back in mod 12. It got down to 7 million in backlog. Every mod that comes out the Zen exchange picks up a little but also players who have a bid in, sometimes pull their ad which causes the backlog to drop a little. But players, cash cow players will invest in zen a little while they are checking out the new mod.
I bet anyone 1 billion AD that if they raised the cap from 500 to 2000 not only would it not ruin the economy but the exchange would pick up actively trading. Because I theorize the actual value of 1 zen is probably around 1200 to 1500 ad in value.
This is due to the massive amount of AD in the game caused by the old system of 36k rough ad refining per character. Players with a lot of characters were making a lot more AD than players who only had one character. This created a massive difference which caused prices on the AH to rise dramatically. Players who only had one character could not afford the AH prices on mounts and companions. But players who had dozens of characters could easily buy 5 million ad mounts in just a few weeks.
So there is still a huge amount of AD in the game, the system change to 100k per account has prevented further increase in the game. But the amount still active in the game is very high resulting in Zen being worth, like I mentioned around 1200 to 1500 ad per zen.
If the AD in the game drops over time from this point on, having the cap still remain at 2000 is okay because the value of zen will free float accordingly. Players are great at determining the actual value of items in game. If a player justifies trading 1k ad per 1 zen then that is the value. It comes down to average player minds on this value. The average will play out and reveal what zen is actually worth based on how available ad is.
So to clear up errors in thinking. It has NOTHING to do with mod 16. This stagnant non-trading exchange has happened many times in the past. In fact just the opposite will happen when the new mod launches. The exchange will pick up for about a week.
Most of us aren't even using the Zen we have in our accounts already before we heard of the uncertainty of the game with MOD16. I did break down and use some Zen already in my account the a week or so back during the surprise 40% off sale and then I just bought most Coals/Wards and a few keys. I might be willing to buy more Zen if a sale like that came up again but I'm not even sure then.
You do make a good point. When players with a lot of ad quit the game it is similar to just removing that ad from the game.
I think there are other valid points. Why buy anything off the AH at this point if you are uncertain what effect will impact that item in the new mod.
I do know of a few items that will jump up in price though if they haven't already. That is insignia, green and blue respectfully will jump in price because they are now more useful in the new mod with the ability to upgrade epics to legendary but you need 8 green and 4 blue and 1 purple to do it. They all must be the same type.
This means those green insignia will drastically increase in price because you will need 8 of them for just one upgrade. The reason their value will jump is because the demand will increase dramatically. Lazy players with lots of ad will gladly purchase those greens if they can get instant upgrade time. That demand will make their current value shoot up. I would not doubt if greens jump to 3 or 4 times their current value, if not more. You could make the argument of an 8:1 ratio increase but I doubt it would go that high since you are required to have all the same type. This means not every green will hold the same value, some of those greens have terrible stats on them. However the really good greens will skyrocket, so don't be shocked if you see good green insignia selling for 40 to 60k each. Possibly more since their rate of growth will be far less than their current demand when mod 16 hits.
So what this means is, if you are farming tradable greens of the good quality now in mod 15 you could potentially net a nice return when the new mod goes live.
Refinement stones will also see a temporary bump in price since we all are getting new gear that needs upgrading the demand for green refinement stones will go up. This can potentially net you some return if you either farm now in mod 15 and sell in mod 16 or you buy out the entire AH of green refinement stones and corner the market by dictating a high price banking on lazy players who want their upgrades as quick as possible. However; this demand will not stay steady, it will diminish as the weeks into mod 16 pile up. But the demand for green and blue insignias will stay relatively high through out.
This means that bag space will once again become an issue in mod 16. Imagine if you wanted to farm them, you are going to need some bag/bank space to collect those valuable ones with the nice stats. If you need a stack of 8 greens of the same type, you might also be collecting blues or other greens of lesser value. Or you might go the low ball route knowing some players cant afford the nice insignia and will gladly use the crappier options since they will be cheaper. So you could run the ghetto insignia trade by collecting those.
Another thing that will spike dramatically are certain companions. Since bolstering is now a factor in how well your companion functions, it means "types" of companions will have a higher demand. If you were the type of player that hoarded everything including "junk" companions, your pay off day is coming. Players who want to run the Chultan Tiger into mod 16 will need more "beast" type companions. This means the demands on the other beast companions will see a nice jump up in value. Even if you don't have the ideal beast companions on hand to sell, they still will see a higher over all value jump since once again lazy or poor players will gladly take the lesser versions to still get their bolster bonus.
One example of that would be a restaurant that keeps the prices fixed, but reduces the portion sizes, or the situation in some parts in Eastern Europe in the early '80s, where the prices of items were set by the state at at low level (lower than the actual value of the items) that people could afford, but they could not buy the items as the stores were empty, or items rationed.
That is exactly the situation we have. The price of Zen is basically set to 500 AD, which is lower than the actual value of Zen. This in turn leads to a reduction in availability (meaning, people are not willing to sell Zen at that price). The difference in supply and demand is an effect, not the cause.
Now, removing the Zen exchange cap would lead to the price skyrocketing, until it stabilized at a much higher point, which more accurately reflected the "true" value of Zen. This would have been equivalent to a communist government removing the state-imposed price restrictions on bread, milk, cooking oil, sugar, and meat. What would have happened? Well, prices would have shot up, stores would have filled up, but people might not have been able to afford the items and gone starving. The same would happen here - removing the cap would put Zen out of reach of many (most?) F2P players.
As I have said before, there are ways to fix the problem, but there seems to be no interest in doing so.
It might not be in the overall interest of the game to make those more expensive than they are.
While the economy might not crash if the ZAX exchange rate was set free, player numbers might.
There are issues in the game that are more important that getting rid of the ZAX queue.
I theorize that zen is worth around 1200 to 1500 ad per 1 zen. Its not really all that much more expensive for a new player. Sure they don't have the same amount of AD wealth as a veteran player but still not "out of reach".
Other prices on the AH such as the argument put forth for the coal and pres wards is a legitimate concern and correct. However; I don't think they would double in price if the exchange cap were raised to 2k. Their price is still based on demand not on the available AD in circulation.
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1- removing VIP Feature >> Free Posting Fee for any Auction House item
So if someone posting 20 Million AD item what is his risk in posting such number? Nothing because there is no posting fee
This feature is stagnating the economy ( I really don't get how people don't see this a problem yea it is cool for us veterans but hinders new players progression in all honesty)
Just to elaborate how it is effecting the economy why would any one want to put bid on his item on the auction house any more
I remember in open beta when we would put our Castle Never Loot on the auction house and players would bid to have that gear
This no longer exists because the seller just wants buyout he has no risks what so ever on his investment return which is posting fee
So why would he settle for less when he can have more
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Edit:
I just got idea and it is nasty for any item that is posted unless it has a bid then Auction House Cut is 35% if it has a bid using percentage based on how far the starting bid posted by the seller from the buyout price that 15% extra Cut starts dropping accordingly numbers are changeable of course by devs if they would like to use that.
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2- Seriously prevent Zen Items reselling it is just bypassing ZAX (This is nothing but crooked and black market)
3- Put Items in wonderous bazzar that makes people drool to have them but rather expensive I remember during open beta getting CAT companion was the dream of everyone to have at that time
4- Create a transmute system where a skin is added and can be reused later on any gear you want however you need slot to have that transmute in your transmute collection (I know slots sucks but this is the model Warframe follows and it brings them loads of money ) and make these slots be added with AD and make these slots expensive.
I know in warframe they are with real money but game seriously needs ad sink ASAP, i just watched video for games shutting down this year one of them gigantic and it made me really worry
I really love Neverwinter and I don't want it to die
> I hope this never happens. I play on console most of the time, and think it's rubbish when it gets above 450. Especially with a 100k per account cap. Now if they were to raise the rad cap to 500k per account or 100k per toon, then maybe I could see a higher exchange rate making sense.
>
> I dunno why our (console)market isn't totally fubar(yet) but hope it never gets there, as I already have a hard enough time farming ad for things I refuse to pay cash for. I remember seeing it down at 337(again console) over the summer, those were the days...
Farming for ad has never been easier...run ur random ques and a couple demos and your OVER 100k
There are two reasons for being in the ZAX queue:
1: You need Zen to buy something for your character
This is the legit and 'real' reason to be in the ZAX queue, and once you have gotten your Zen the AD is 'gone' from the ZAX queue system. It is people queuing for this reason that really feels the pain of the long ZAX queue.
2: You need Zen to buy something that you will turn around and sell on the AH and put the income directly back into the ZAX
Note that this also provides an important service to the game, it does the job of obtaining Zen and providing much-in-demand Zen goods on the AH for AD. So when you can buy coals and wards immediately off the AH for AD, someone probably queued up on the ZAX for you to make this available on AH. Stopping that kind of trading might again make the game less playable - for the overall enjoyment of the game this trading probably is desirable. (But this of course is a circular argument in that the need for such a service very much depends on there being a ZAX queue.. it will have a positive feedback on the queue length)
The problem with (2) is that that makes the length of the Zen queue depend on the amount of AD available to cycle through the ZAX. It will not help that much to introduce new money sinks, nor restrict AD income even more, if there is a fixed amount of AD being locked into ever queuing for Zen. AD sinks and AD income restrictions primarily help with (1).
In reality the entries in the ZAX queue is a mix of (1) and (2) of course. But it is probable it is (2) contributing most to the backlog, and (1) feeling the pain of it.
There is simply too much AD in the system. While the refinement change from 36K/toon to 100K/account was suppose to reduce earning potential, I think it may have made things worst because the number of players with 1 or 2 character account is much greater than the number of players using an alt army to generate income. The average player's earning went from 36-72K/day to 100K/day. And that 100K is much easier to make.
Mod 16 may alleviate this. Level scaling will make RQ harder and take longer to run. No more 3 minute MotH/DL runs in RLQ, no more 6 minute demo/eSoT/KR runs in RIQ, and no more 6 minute eDemo runs in RAQ. I don't think I will do any RQ when mod 16 comes. I have so much RAD back log I can refine 100K every day to mod 17.
3. You stock up Zen for the sales. Allow you to buy whatever coming up in Zen store. A kind of financial freedom thing. You don't have anything specific to buy but you prepare yourself if there will be. Ease the pain of being (1). The pain of (1) is because of lack of buffer zone. Getting Zen is an one year project when I started to play this game and the waiting time was 6 months. I am in this category.
1. "Real" value of ZEN is likely more than 500 AD
2. ~50 % less people buying ZEN for real money after MOD 16 was announced
2. is easy to verify if one looks at the time it takes for an AD->ZEN order to complete (see below)
@Krumple:
If less people buy ZEN, but the demand remains the same, the backlog increases, got it?
If SUPPLY rate decreases relative to the DEMAND rate, the backlog increases, got it?
So how did MOD 16 affect the SUPPLY and DEMAND (rates)?
As mentinmindmaker posted, it took 43 days for his last order to complete.
His order must have been posted to the ZAX around mid February.
At the time of ZAX-posting the backlog was between 20-25M ZEN.
This means, the average inflow of ZEN (supply) in the last 43 days was ~0.5M ZEN/day.
But this is the averaged rate over 43 days. Can we estimate the current rate?
If I recall correctly, we had a backlog of 25-28M Zen when MOD 16 hit preview on March 1st.
This suggests that DEMAND was slightly higher than SUPPLY in the ~15 days between mid February to March 1st.
It is also likely that SUPPLY was stable at 1M/ZEN per day until March 1st.
Under the assumption of stable 1M/Zen SUPPLY rate in the ~15 days between mid February and March 1,
SUPPLY would have provided ~15M ZEN to the ZAX in the first 15 days after mentin posted his order.
Assuming mentin started at a backlog of 25M ZEN in mid February,
he would have moved from his 25M pole position mid February to the 25-15 =10 million ZEN position at March 1.
It then took him ~30 days to move from 10M ZEN to 0, at which time his order completed.
This means the estimated SUPPLY rate between March 1 and March 30 is ~0.3M ZEN / day.
Just to double check: mentin was not sure, if he started at 20M or 25M backlog.
So lets assume the worst, meaning he started in mid Feb at 20M backlog.
At 1M/Zen per day, he would have moved in the first 15 days after posting his order to the 20-15 = 5 million ZEN position at March 1st. Then it took him ~30 more days to move from 5M ZEN to 0, meaning SUPPLY rate in the last 30 days must have been ~0.17 M ZEN/day.
So we are talking about a massive drop in SUPPLY rate, beginning ~ March 1st.
The time-averaged SUPPLY rate in the last 30 days lies between 0.2-0.3M/day. It is probably falling.
This means after March 1st, SUPPLY provides roughly 6-10M ZEN per month to the ZAX (likely lower than that now)
What with the DEMAND?
Assuming the backlog was 25M ZEN March 1st, SUPPLY would have reduced it by 6-10M, e.g. to 15-19M by March 30.
Given that we now have 36M backlog, DEMAND must have been 17-21M per 30 days, e.g. 0.5-0.6 M per day.
It is completely obvious, that BOTH SUPPLY and DEMAND dropped significantly when MOD 16 hit preview on March 1st.
SUPPLY dropped from ~1M/day to 0.2-0.3M, e.g. by 60-80%
DEMAND dropped from ~1.2M/day to 0.5-0.6M/day, e.g. by ~50%.
This a clear MOD 16 effect.
Of course MOD 16 has indirect effects as well.
For instance, the "real" value of ZEN must increase during a significant SUPPLY shortage.
So Krumple has a valid point.
But the fundamental reason for the significant increase in Backlog we are seeing now is - very obviously - MOD16.
Fact is, a large backlog and a long wait time for AD->ZEN conversion is rather obviously an incentive to buy ZEN from real money. Of course, the wait time may not be ridiculously long, so that the ftps grinding AD and hoping to convert it to ZEN will not become totally frustrated. A balance needs to be struck. But to reduce it to zero is not in the interest of Cryptic. Cryptic would rather like to see our credit cards in action.
I find it quite amusing to read all these theories about "how to reduce the backlog", with the intent to achieve the ftp's ideal of instant AD->ZEN conversion. From a ftp perspective this might make sense. Albeit only from a purely egoistic point of view that does not take into account, that the game can only survive if its running costs are paid. A business that is not a charity will want to make a profit. From a business perspective it does not make sense to ever reduce the backlog to zero. Sorry, guys, its really a lost cause. A waste of effort if you really think you can convince the company that runs the game to kick itself into the butt.
https://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/neverwinter/#/discussion/1247005/would-like-to-see-a-m16-undermountain-zen-rewards-sale-much-like-the-winter-bonus-rewards-sale
2. If you increase the amount for the exchange all that will do is in 1 day everyone would be posting at the 2000 limit or whatever the highest amount would be. This is due to the fact that people need wards and in game sources are tied to the account or character and don't give enough of those to support a single player upgrading all of their enchants. The want is not in that zen is that wanted. The demand in the supply demand curve comes from wards and VIP only coming from the zen store. Remove those to items to the wonderous bazaar and all of a sudden you would fix the demand for zen since people would use their AD straight for those services. Meaning, Demand is for the items and not Zen and to fix that means making those items less wanted or restricted. This won't happen since that directly affects the money the game brings in. The exchange taking so long is also working in their favor for players who aren't willing to wait.
3. Mod 16 has people holding their wallets to spend since they don't know what will be good to get for next mod. While this isn't stopping everyone it is stopping a large number of players.
Yule (Barb): 72k : Siren (TR): 78k : Torun (DC): 73k : Siren OP (OP): 76k : Siren SW (SW): 78k : Modern (F): 80k : Cherry1 (CW) : 68k Siren HR (HR): 78k
Hidden inflation would come in if I was still buying the same amount of something at a lower quality or if the tax/surcharges/fees/etc... are actually changing to hide the amount of a item. This is typical of markets such as farming since the pricing for some items are subsidized to keep steady pricing for things like eggs, milk, flour, etc... without us the consumer knowing that there are still hidden changes happening behind the scenes. I disagree that hidden inflation fully works in this scenario but it is very close.
Example: If I go and buy a product such as a drink (16oz) from a store and they put in varying amounts of ice in the drink you now have a hidden inflation. I bought the same product in quantity but got a varying degree of return on investment based on the amount of ice added.
In all of the samples happening here we still have the same buying power to purchase Zen with AD doesn't change from player to player. The values do change at times for the items purchased but that is due to sales. When i buy a pair of jeans from a department store and they put on a sale we don't call that inflation. We call it a sale. This is why I make the argument that we aren't seeing hidden inflation at this time but the supply demand curve being manipulated to where demand for items in the zen store are more wanted than in game purchasable AD items.
Yule (Barb): 72k : Siren (TR): 78k : Torun (DC): 73k : Siren OP (OP): 76k : Siren SW (SW): 78k : Modern (F): 80k : Cherry1 (CW) : 68k Siren HR (HR): 78k