Just wanted to share that it's already 20 days that I'm getting from VIP key Lost Artifact Pack and everyday from this pack I get:
- Cube of augmentation - 2x Mark of Potency (blue one) - 2x Moderate Enchanting Stone (green one) - 2x Greater Enchanting Stone (blue one)
Let me repeat. It's 20 days, every single VIP key got me Lost Artifact Pack with these items inside.
Please, tell me. What is the statistic possibility to get the same pack with the same items inside for straight 20 days?
I'm opening Glorious Resurgence Lockbox btw.
Edit: Wrong day count. It's 20 days, not 22.
Glorious Resurgence has about a 23% chance of getting the artifact pack. The odds of getting that 20 days in a row are relatively low - 0.5%, about 1 in 200 - but it's *only* 1/200. Put another way, for every 200 players opening their VIP boxes? One of them is you.
Ignore the dude who says you get better results from opening large numbers of keys at once because "it's only a PSEUDO-random number generator!". He has no idea what he's talking about and is spouting literal nonsense. But some people do find it more fun to save up their keys and open them all at once, and it can certainly feel like you're getting better results that way.
Totally! what folks don't understand about coding and RL random is in the computer realm "random" is only "pseudo random", game designers never want to cop to that, "random generated numbers" from a binary system isn't possible, you can only approximate it. It's like defining the value of Pi, it's going to hit a number out there, maybe thousands, maybe millions of digits but it's a repeating sequence eventually, it's not random.
Flip a coin, 50% chance its heads, 50% tails right? WRONG. There is a infinitesimal chance it lands on the vertical edge, truly random, computers are binary, that 3rd side isn't accounted for on tails and heads. 1 or 0. So I flipped the coin 100 times and it's going to be 50 heads and 50 tails...WRONG. Every flip is an equal change of head/tail and that very rare on end chance. the last flip has no play on this flip, you could flip the coin and with that 49.xxxxxxxxx%/49.xxxxxxxxxxx% odds get 99 tails and that 100th be heads or tails or on end, the past flips have no bearing on outlaying flips odds, each is flip is distinct.
Computer game RGN aren't, they are fixed stat approximations of random.
For anyone who thinks the chance on a legendary drop is 0.0001% or anything ridiculous like that... It's not. The chance has been proven multiple times to be somewhere between 0.1 - 0.15%. So ON AVERAGE every 750-1000 lock boxes contains a legendary drop (excluding the contents of the blue boxes, which can also be legendary). The keyword is "on average" - meaning that it's only guaranteed over a really big sample, like this:
jumpingmorksMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 876Arc User
Then there is the stuff that people think is worthless junk and either throw it away or just put on the AH for 1k AD, like the Cloak of the Protector, which I bought 12 of at 1k AD and then sold for 90k each, they're now selling at 300k each.
Same with Air Archons, so many were dropping when they first appeared that people were practically just giving them away.
if you buy the keys at 40% discount you will generally more or less recover the cost of the key by selling what you get from opening
This was true in the past, but the average selling price for pretty much everything in the boxes have dropped significantly in the past year for one reason or another. A 40% discounted key costs 37,500 AD. Your ASP is going to get dragged down by the mount and stronghold packs and will be below that at current AH prices . Then you still need to minus the AH 10% commission.
The thing about lockboxs is the cumulative value they grant from the immediate rewards.
Sell EVERYTHING that you get that you don't want. Every time you open a lockbox then open the second pack, etc. you are pretty much hammering the AD value into the ground. Selling a Jungle Cat mount pack for like 8k is far better than opening it and getting two insignias not even worth 500 AD.
For the majority of players they would be able to buy a legendary mount (or two) before they get one out of a lockbox. Spending AD on keys to try and get ahead is quite risky, if you sell all for the most part you can break even or get a "little" profit.
Buy keys and VIP during the 40% off sale and enjoy the game the rest of the time.
The other part of lockbox RNG is this thing about players blaming the game for their lack of self control...
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“There are changes that can be made that don’t require coding...” - TriNitY "No amount of coding will change human behavior" - TriNitY
The thing about lockboxs is the cumulative value they grant from the immediate rewards.
Sell EVERYTHING that you get that you don't want. Every time you open a lockbox then open the second pack, etc. you are pretty much hammering the AD value into the ground. Selling a Jungle Cat mount pack for like 8k is far better than opening it and getting two insignias not even worth 500 AD.
For the majority of players they would be able to buy a legendary mount (or two) before they get one out of a lockbox. Spending AD on keys to try and get ahead is quite risky, if you sell all for the most part you can break even or get a "little" profit.
Buy keys and VIP during the 40% off sale and enjoy the game the rest of the time.
The other part of lockbox RNG is this thing about players blaming the game for their lack of self control...
Once your great grandchildren are in college, those oranges will start popping like candy I opened some 500+ lockboxes at black friday event and got bupkis
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Totally! what folks don't understand about coding and RL random is in the computer realm "random" is only "pseudo random", game designers never want to cop to that, "random generated numbers" from a binary system isn't possible, you can only approximate it. It's like defining the value of Pi, it's going to hit a number out there, maybe thousands, maybe millions of digits but it's a repeating sequence eventually, it's not random.
Flip a coin, 50% chance its heads, 50% tails right? WRONG. There is a infinitesimal chance it lands on the vertical edge, truly random, computers are binary, that 3rd side isn't accounted for on tails and heads. 1 or 0. So I flipped the coin 100 times and it's going to be 50 heads and 50 tails...WRONG. Every flip is an equal change of head/tail and that very rare on end chance. the last flip has no play on this flip, you could flip the coin and with that 49.xxxxxxxxx%/49.xxxxxxxxxxx% odds get 99 tails and that 100th be heads or tails or on end, the past flips have no bearing on outlaying flips odds, each is flip is distinct.
Computer game RGN aren't, they are fixed stat approximations of random.
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Same with Air Archons, so many were dropping when they first appeared that people were practically just giving them away.
Sell EVERYTHING that you get that you don't want. Every time you open a lockbox then open the second pack, etc. you are pretty much hammering the AD value into the ground. Selling a Jungle Cat mount pack for like 8k is far better than opening it and getting two insignias not even worth 500 AD.
For the majority of players they would be able to buy a legendary mount (or two) before they get one out of a lockbox. Spending AD on keys to try and get ahead is quite risky, if you sell all for the most part you can break even or get a "little" profit.
Buy keys and VIP during the 40% off sale and enjoy the game the rest of the time.
The other part of lockbox RNG is this thing about players blaming the game for their lack of self control...
“There are changes that can be made that don’t require coding...” - TriNitY
"No amount of coding will change human behavior" - TriNitY
Ongoing Issue: Legitmate Players Banned for Botting (Console) and the Future for "Dedicated" Players
Suggestions: (Implemented) \/\/ Rearrange Character on character Select Screen
I opened some 500+ lockboxes at black friday event and got bupkis