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ashnvf
Member Posts: 294 Arc User
To all the doomsayers, looks like the market is going to return to normal sooner than anyone expected. I bet once the backlog gets below 2M it will drop extremely fast as folks holding onto "safe" reserves of Zen will now have to convert it back to AD since the rate will be dropping below 500 shortly.
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I don't see why it would, a lot of that was sinked from marks. Since the previous exploit fix it'd been coming down. Before that when it wasn't widely known there was no reason to expect it would come down, different circumstances after all.
Oh nice update I'm anxious to see the price and bonus, knowing Cryptic it'll be like 900k.
I'd be surprised if it wasn't about that give or take 100k.
Depends. Some of the Zen backlog has been converted into AD that is no longer in circulation (for example used by people buying multiple Greater marks of potency@100.000, but I suspect much of the AD was just spent on the AH - a good chunk of it is now in the hands of botfarmers, andwill eventually make it into the hands of players, and some of it will be converted back to Zen. I suspect the backlog will stabilize, but if it continues shrinking, then yes...the last 1M will disappear really fast.
Of course - if you have Zen, then why exchange it for AD at 500 when you can get much higher exchange rate otherwise? For example, during the 2xRP event it was quite profitable to buy preservation wards and sell them on the AH - even after the AH cut you got 570-600 AD per Zen that way.
Yep, a lot of people don't understand one of the key tenets of economies: if you tell someone that they can't sell their $700 widget for more than $500 they simply won't sell very many for $500, and a black market will emerge. Happening in Venezuela.....
Honestly I think a lot of AD holders are like me, hoping it will drop below 500, and then we'll try to sell. But that then increases supply....causing the same problems as before. Seems to have stalled in the 3.4m range.
This isn't the real world. You know what you do to stop it, permaban anyone even suspected of dealing with the blackmarket. You permaban on suspicion not even proof and guess what there will be no more blackmarket. Can't do that in the real world.
You can only do that when there is a Zen backlog and the price you can get goes lower and lower the smaller the backlog.
Looks like you are correct. Zax down to just over 1M now. Maybe by the end of the weekend it will be completely gone.
I'm getting pretty hopeful. There might be a small resurgence as soon as the backlog on 500 disappears, but this is still good.
Varies. It's been as low or lower than 300, or stable at ~400 or so. I guess since people spent all of their AD there's less supply to meet demand.
People expected it would drop fast as the backlog disappeared, as people with Zen would hurry up to convert it @500 while they still have a chance.
Yeah, I sold a bit of Zen earlier because of that reason.
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
Not suspicious at all. Without "free" AD to keep propping it up, there just isn't enough AD to sustain the 500 rate. People made completely incorrect assumptions about all the things keeping it at 500 with a backlog when the simplest solution was it was just the constant "free" AD doing it.
Only time will tell, but I would expect it to drop close to 400-420 over the next month. Historically it would always spike at the beginning of a new Module and then slowly drop as the AD rich folks got bored of the new module and went on hiatus.
IDK, It dropped pretty fast. Most expected it to return to normal eventually. But I don't know anyone that expected it to continue dropping so fast *after* the refinement weekend was over. Especially during a sale for high dollar packs that can't be bought with Zen/AD. I wouldn't be surprised if PWE decided to help it a little to speed up the recovery. Doing that would be a short term loss of money on their part. But I could see them using it to boost player confidence and encourage other sales.
^Totally my own speculation and opinion. And I certainly would not have a problem with it if I'm right. Of course I'm also crazy and often wrong. So, eh... whatever.