You know, the problem is that if there is label 5% chance, on average you should try 20x to refine it. For 10% it is 10, 25% 4 and so on. I usually do need double the amount of wards but I do not get any first try wins, so I guess this simple statistics does not apply here. My score this double event is 5 wards on 50% chance, 50 wards together on 2x10% chance and 35 wards on 5% chance. To sum it up: 90 wards total versus 41 according to statistics. Yeah, I was just unlucky, but as this happens every time...
I was keeping track of the number of wards Ive been using for upgrades, and the sample size wasn't awesome (maybe used 150-200 wards over 5-10 enchants) but it was almost spot on what the averages indicate it should be. On some 10% chances I went through 30-40 wards, but on others it was successful first time etc. and overall it balanced out
This double refinement weekend I upgrades two artifacts to mythic and used 21 Pres wards in total for all stages. For the last stage 5% chance, I used 8 wards for both artifacts (the second using none because it was successful first go). I'd say for every really bad result is there is likely a good one that ppl don't come to the forums to gloat about.
Those Pres wards I got from opening coffers - I opened around 130 coffers and got 5 Coal wards and 28 Pres Wards. I have found it fairly reliable that you get around one coal ward per 30 coffers (roughly).
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minotaur2857Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,141Arc User
You know, the problem is that if there is label 5% chance, on average you should try 20x to refine it. For 10% it is 10, 25% 4 and so on. I usually do need double the amount of wards but I do not get any first try wins, so I guess this simple statistics does not apply here. My score this double event is 5 wards on 50% chance, 50 wards together on 2x10% chance and 35 wards on 5% chance. To sum it up: 90 wards total versus 41 according to statistics. Yeah, I was just unlucky, but as this happens every time...
I was keeping track of the number of wards Ive been using for upgrades, and the sample size wasn't awesome (maybe used 150-200 wards over 5-10 enchants) but it was almost spot on what the averages indicate it should be. On some 10% chances I went through 30-40 wards, but on others it was successful first time etc. and overall it balanced out
This double refinement weekend I upgrades two artifacts to mythic and used 21 Pres wards in total for all stages. For the last stage 5% chance, I used 8 wards for both artifacts (the second using none because it was successful first go). I'd say for every really bad result is there is likely a good one that ppl don't come to the forums to gloat about.
Those Pres wards I got from opening coffers - I opened around 130 coffers and got 5 Coal wards and 28 Pres Wards. I have found it fairly reliable that you get around one coal ward per 30 coffers (roughly).
I've been tracking this for years and over tens of thousands of attempts I'm using 20-30% more wards than I should, today 2x10%s took me 63 wards split roughly equally although earlier in 2xRP I did a 5% with 5 wards. This weekend seems particularly bad for RNG as I also took 8 attempts at 75% to mastercraft 2 items which cost me 3-500K/attempt depending on how you calculate it, almost bankrupting me as the total worth of the items was 2.3M.
You know, the problem is that if there is label 5% chance, on average you should try 20x to refine it. For 10% it is 10, 25% 4 and so on. I usually do need double the amount of wards but I do not get any first try wins, so I guess this simple statistics does not apply here. My score this double event is 5 wards on 50% chance, 50 wards together on 2x10% chance and 35 wards on 5% chance. To sum it up: 90 wards total versus 41 according to statistics. Yeah, I was just unlucky, but as this happens every time...
Your sample size is too small. Your correlation between % and necessary tries is faulty. Do you know how many times I've heard "25% chance. I should have it in 4 tries."?
First try: 25% success/75% failure Second try: 25% success/75% failure Third try: 25% success/75% failure Fourth try: 25% success/75% failure
See the pattern? Subsequent attempts are in no way influenced by previous attempts.
I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
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minotaur2857Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,141Arc User
You know, the problem is that if there is label 5% chance, on average you should try 20x to refine it. For 10% it is 10, 25% 4 and so on. I usually do need double the amount of wards but I do not get any first try wins, so I guess this simple statistics does not apply here. My score this double event is 5 wards on 50% chance, 50 wards together on 2x10% chance and 35 wards on 5% chance. To sum it up: 90 wards total versus 41 according to statistics. Yeah, I was just unlucky, but as this happens every time...
Your sample size is too small. Your correlation between % and necessary tries is faulty. Do you know how many times I've heard "25% chance. I should have it in 4 tries."?
First try: 25% success/75% failure Second try: 25% success/75% failure Third try: 25% success/75% failure Fourth try: 25% success/75% failure
See the pattern? Subsequent attempts are in no way influenced by previous attempts.
It should be the case if the RNG is working properly that the chance is unaltered whether it's the first or 4th attempt but I don't believe it actually is. I think if the previous attempt failed, the next one is more likely to than it should be.
"25% chance. I should have it in 4 tries." has logic, and is in fact merely a lazy statement of something that is basically true.
Your chance of success is 25%, so if we look at when you're likely to succeed
First try 1/4 Second try 3/4 (fail first) x 1/4 (succeed second) = 3/16 Third try 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 9/64 Fourth try 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 27/256
Now you could add these up to get the chance of having succeeded after 4 tries (64 + 48 + 36 + 27)/256 = 175/256 but it's actually easier to say your chance of 4 fails is (3/4)^4 = 81/256 so you should fail to get it after 4 tries less than 1/3 of the time so it is more likely than not that you will have it in 4 tries or less (in fact it's more likely than not you will have it inside 3 tries)
Also the mean (or expected number of tries) is indeed 4.
First try: 25% success/75% failure Second try: 25% success/75% failure Third try: 25% success/75% failure Fourth try: 25% success/75% failure
See the pattern? Subsequent attempts are in no way influenced by previous attempts.
Now as this is completely true, the fact stays that in such system you are at about 1%? chance for spending double the amount or more wards than the 10% labelled percentage suggest. Can you see that? Even with "bad memory for lucky strikes" I can honestly claim that it happens much more often. In fact the probability to spend 2xor more the wards should be roughly equal to chance of the first lucky attempt. As I refined a lot of items I am brave enough to say that this is not happening.
Btw: The distribution says that with 10% chance label you have 50% chance to have your stuff already refined on your 10th attempt. As I did not keep the statistic as others I do not claim anything but I surely am a little bit sceptical about that.
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minotaur2857Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,141Arc User
First try: 25% success/75% failure Second try: 25% success/75% failure Third try: 25% success/75% failure Fourth try: 25% success/75% failure
See the pattern? Subsequent attempts are in no way influenced by previous attempts.
Now as this is completely true, the fact stays that in such system you are at about 1%? chance for spending double the amount or more wards than the 10% labelled percentage suggest. Can you see that? Even with "bad memory for lucky strikes" I can honestly claim that it happens much more often. In fact the probability to spend 2xor more the wards should be roughly equal to chance of the first lucky attempt. As I refined a lot of items I am brave enough to say that this is not happening.
Btw: The distribution says that with 10% chance label you have 50% chance to have your stuff already refined on your 10th attempt. As I did not keep the statistic as others I do not claim anything but I surely am a little bit sceptical about that.
No it doesn't, nothing of the sort:
Chance of not having it done in 9 attempts at 10% is 0.9^9 = 0.387 so you are way better than 50% to have it done by then, you hit 50% between 6 and 7 attempts. Chance of not having it done in 20 attempts is 0.9^20 = 0.122 so around 1 in 8 will go over 20 attempts.
> @kreatyve said: > Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games. > > And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG. > > If you want the guaranteed chance - that's what coal wards are for. What's the point of having something else??
His point is, if something has a 25% chance to success, let us load in the proper amount (call it adjusted refining cost) in preservation wards. If something has a 1% chance, then the cost is the same if you picked pres or coalescent, but don't let it cost MORE than a coa.
Basically it's taking the rng out of refining and giving things a max fixed cost. If you want to roll the dice and get a lower cost, then by all means do it 1 by 1.
Why should someone ever have to use a coa ward on a 25% chance success just to avoid clicking so many times?
I'd say for every really bad result is there is likely a good one that ppl don't come to the forums to gloat about.
That is the problem though, the good memory is quickly soured and the one that sticks in the mind is the 150 wards used on a 10%, not the 10% you got in 1 shot. (Not to mention, most people that track the numbers show the 10% is really off on the %) When I think back to long past upgrading, I don't think about the good things, I end up dreading double refinement thinking how many failures am I going to have. For a part of the game that isn't skillful, you shouldn't be forced to dread your luck going into it, if you don't have to.
For those that love the RNG and gambling, I don't want that portion changed for them, but Cryptic needs to realize not everyone loves, or even likes RNG. Some people do despise the way RNG works on refining and it drives those players away from this game.
Now then, there will still be pure RNG on stuff such as drops, lock boxes, and such...refining is just a non-necessity RNG.
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greywyndMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 7,153Arc User
It should be the case if the RNG is working properly that the chance is unaltered whether it's the first or 4th attempt but I don't believe it actually is. I think if the previous attempt failed, the next one is more likely to than it should be.
"25% chance. I should have it in 4 tries." has logic, and is in fact merely a lazy statement of something that is basically true.
Your chance of success is 25%, so if we look at when you're likely to succeed
First try 1/4 Second try 3/4 (fail first) x 1/4 (succeed second) = 3/16 Third try 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 9/64 Fourth try 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 27/256
Now you could add these up to get the chance of having succeeded after 4 tries (64 + 48 + 36 + 27)/256 = 175/256 but it's actually easier to say your chance of 4 fails is (3/4)^4 = 81/256 so you should fail to get it after 4 tries less than 1/3 of the time so it is more likely than not that you will have it in 4 tries or less (in fact it's more likely than not you will have it inside 3 tries)
Also the mean (or expected number of tries) is indeed 4.
You don't think it is working properly, but you have no proof of whether that is so.
Yes, the mean is 4, but if you know anything about statistics you are also aware that there are, and always will be, outliers.
I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
and a bad one sided event, that causes MANY people to quit the game... when it's easily remedied, with an alternate option as was the suggestion in the first thread.
Of course, went through 120 pres wards on a 5% chance upgrade.
How many times have you upgraded in less than the 'expected' amount of Preservation Wards?
No one tracks that, because its a happy event.
But we always make a note when we go over the 'expected' amount of Preservation Wards. Its a one-sided event of cognitive bias.
I've been keeping track ever since the first time I blew over 50 wards on a 10% upgrade. And I don't think there has been enough upgrades that came in well under the expected to make up for the few that inflicted heavy losses.
The problem is when you get lucky, the upside is very limited. The best you can do is a free upgrade costing no wards. While the losses on a bad streak is theoretically infinite, but realistically, all the wards you can afford at that time.
We should not miss the point about wards here. A lot of them are needed (either pres or coal) and their supply through game itself is incredibly low. Thus, people are forced to buy them through ZEN shop. This needs to change by introducing some chain of quests that will increase the supply.
A game that wants to call itself "free to play" needs to provide a practical (emphasis here) access to all aspects of the game with some reasonable effort. Anything that is offered through money should only shorten the required time to get it, not be the main source of getting it. Even if Cryptic wanted to force the players to pay for the game, that should be limited to subscriptions. Here this is not the case since VIP provides nothing concerning wards. From what I read, they used to be purchasable through bars, but they changed it. I think that speaks volumes for the mentality of the company.
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,421Arc User
We should not miss the point about wards here. A lot of them are needed (either pres or coal) and their supply through game itself is incredibly low. Thus, people are forced to buy them through ZEN shop. This needs to change by introducing some chain of quests that will increase the supply.
A game that wants to call itself "free to play" needs to provide a practical (emphasis here) access to all aspects of the game with some reasonable effort. Anything that is offered through money should only shorten the required time to get it, not be the main source of getting it. Even if Cryptic wanted to force the players to pay for the game, that should be limited to subscriptions. Here this is not the case since VIP provides nothing concerning wards. From what I read, they used to be purchasable through bars, but they changed it. I think that speaks volumes for the mentality of the company.
Just because they can be purchased from Zen store, it does not mean the purchaser pays money. Many people do AD -> Zen -> ward. Since AD came from game, indirectly, the ward is obtained from game. Although Zen came from someone paid money to buy, many did not actually spend money. With AD, you can also purchase ward from AH directly without converting to Zen although getting from Zen store is a better deal with coupon.
Post edited by plasticbat on
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Chance of not having it done in 9 attempts at 10% is 0.9^9 = 0.387 so you are way better than 50% to have it done by then, you hit 50% between 6 and 7 attempts. Chance of not having it done in 20 attempts is 0.9^20 = 0.122 so around 1 in 8 will go over 20 attempts.
I got tired and did the math myself too: yes, those are the correct numbers.:)
We should not miss the point about wards here. A lot of them are needed (either pres or coal) and their supply through game itself is incredibly low. Thus, people are forced to buy them through ZEN shop. This needs to change by introducing some chain of quests that will increase the supply.
A game that wants to call itself "free to play" needs to provide a practical (emphasis here) access to all aspects of the game with some reasonable effort. Anything that is offered through money should only shorten the required time to get it, not be the main source of getting it. Even if Cryptic wanted to force the players to pay for the game, that should be limited to subscriptions. Here this is not the case since VIP provides nothing concerning wards. From what I read, they used to be purchasable through bars, but they changed it. I think that speaks volumes for the mentality of the company.
Just because they can be purchased from Zen store, it does not mean the purchaser pays money. Many people do AD -> Zen -> ward. Since AD came from game, indirectly, the ward is obtained from game. Although Zen came from someone paid money to buy, many did not actually spend money. With AD, you can also purchase ward from AH directly without converting to Zen although getting from Zen store is a better deal with coupon.
What you say about AD->ZEN is true, but considering that AD is needed almost for anything in this game, you must constantly farm content for AD, leaving aside quests for gear, boons, etc. If normal content would produce AD, that would not be a problem, but it doesn't.
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greywyndMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 7,153Arc User
and a bad one sided event, that causes MANY people to quit the game... when it's easily remedied, with an alternate option as was the suggestion in the first thread.
The alternate option you want is a coalescent ward. It exists. So, what it goes back to is you want it easier/cheaper.
I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
You know, as coal wards are used by most people for only the 1% upgrades that is the same as proposed by the OP.
1% chance = 100 pres wards (chance) or 1 coal ward (definite). Essentially he's suggesting a 'scaling coal ward' where you spend the stated ward amount in full.
However, his methodology isn't really conducive to balance, where a 25% chance means 1 in 4 so 4 pres wards and a 10% chance means 1 in 10 so 10 wards. It's logical, but is it balanced?
There could be an argument that a 10% chance requires 90 pres wards if they are based on the cost of the absolute (coal ward).
Personally I would prefer to see a cap or limit, where once passed, you get a guaranteed upgrade and that that cap should be based on the above.
So a 10% chance means that if you are unfortunate enough to burn through 90 wards, the 90th is a guaranteed upgrade.
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minotaur2857Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,141Arc User
It should be the case if the RNG is working properly that the chance is unaltered whether it's the first or 4th attempt but I don't believe it actually is. I think if the previous attempt failed, the next one is more likely to than it should be.
"25% chance. I should have it in 4 tries." has logic, and is in fact merely a lazy statement of something that is basically true.
Your chance of success is 25%, so if we look at when you're likely to succeed
First try 1/4 Second try 3/4 (fail first) x 1/4 (succeed second) = 3/16 Third try 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 9/64 Fourth try 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 27/256
Now you could add these up to get the chance of having succeeded after 4 tries (64 + 48 + 36 + 27)/256 = 175/256 but it's actually easier to say your chance of 4 fails is (3/4)^4 = 81/256 so you should fail to get it after 4 tries less than 1/3 of the time so it is more likely than not that you will have it in 4 tries or less (in fact it's more likely than not you will have it inside 3 tries)
Also the mean (or expected number of tries) is indeed 4.
You don't think it is working properly, but you have no proof of whether that is so.
Yes, the mean is 4, but if you know anything about statistics you are also aware that there are, and always will be, outliers.
I'm a stats graduate so tend to test these things, so I did, over tens of thousands of trials, and I'm pretty confident on this. When your results fall outside where 95% of the results should be 10 2xRPs in a row ...
(btw, as of a couple of hours from now I'll be off net for a week so won't be able to reply to this thread, but will look on my return)
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,421Arc User
We should not miss the point about wards here. A lot of them are needed (either pres or coal) and their supply through game itself is incredibly low. Thus, people are forced to buy them through ZEN shop. This needs to change by introducing some chain of quests that will increase the supply.
A game that wants to call itself "free to play" needs to provide a practical (emphasis here) access to all aspects of the game with some reasonable effort. Anything that is offered through money should only shorten the required time to get it, not be the main source of getting it. Even if Cryptic wanted to force the players to pay for the game, that should be limited to subscriptions. Here this is not the case since VIP provides nothing concerning wards. From what I read, they used to be purchasable through bars, but they changed it. I think that speaks volumes for the mentality of the company.
Just because they can be purchased from Zen store, it does not mean the purchaser pays money. Many people do AD -> Zen -> ward. Since AD came from game, indirectly, the ward is obtained from game. Although Zen came from someone paid money to buy, many did not actually spend money. With AD, you can also purchase ward from AH directly without converting to Zen although getting from Zen store is a better deal with coupon.
What you say about AD->ZEN is true, but considering that AD is needed almost for anything in this game, you must constantly farm content for AD, leaving aside quests for gear, boons, etc. If normal content would produce AD, that would not be a problem, but it doesn't.
I don't understand what you mean by AD is needed for almost for anything in this game. What you need (or want) is what AD can buy. Instead of buying them, you can farm them ... and sell them to get AD. There are a few content in the game requires AD to progress (as the game takes AD directly from your pocket) but there are not many. Frankly, I have not spend much AD for a long time. I do accumulating AD though and I am not actively farming AD like others do.
I did convert AD to Zen and have a big stash but even so, there is nothing I have the urge to buy in Zen store neither.
Yes, if you want free to play (as not taking out money from your pocket), you do need to work a bit.
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
Compared to other MMO's I have played, this game is very easy to upgrade equipment.
While the RNG can be irritating, as has been stated, that is the nature of statistics.
I had a recent person complain that they had spent two weeks grinding on a campaign and were only about half done. They seemed frustrated that campaigns took soooo long to complete.
The problem is in your expectations. You expect a 25% chance to yield a positive result within 4 tries. As has been stated, that shows ignorance of how statistics work. Over a very large dataset (thousands of numbers), then the 25% chance would be seen. But over a small dataset (refining your equipment), your specific numbers will vary greatly. Some people will be lucky, others not so lucky. I was not so lucky this x2 RP event. I used more wards than average. I understand...it is not fun being on the receiving end of a losing streak.
Since there are so many statisticians participating in this, would it be possible to build a secondary system that had a die roll in the background for N preservation wards connected to a button you could press, committing that number of P wards to a guaranteed upgrade, and that would be comparable to clicking twice on each attempt and getting frustrated? It seems like a fair trade-off... If I don't want to put up with the hassle of all that clicking, and I happen to have a stack of wards, I could press a button and immediately spend an amount of wards that falls somewhere within expectations of whatever chance I had at success. I don't know the number until I press the button and lose the wards, and I forego the possibility of outlier returns such as 1 ward success at 5% chance or 100 wards at 50%
Edited so that I do not feed the trolls. Please don't try to troll this thread by coming in calling everyone else ignorant, go somewhere else for that.
Frankly, I have not spend much AD for a long time. I do accumulating AD though and I am not actively farming AD like others do.
I did convert AD to Zen and have a big stash but even so, there is nothing I have the urge to buy in Zen store neither
Plastic, while I will agree with you that it isn't that hard to farm/store AD & Zen once you get moving in the game (as I do the same)... I keep seeing new players and people I become friends with quit the game after 3-4 months because it takes much much longer to get to that spot. I would like to see more people stick around and continue playing the game. On top of that, with the changes cryptic is suggesting with the next mod, AD will become insanely hard for new players. My thread is focused from the point of new players, not from the view point of the 16k's that are afraid a new player will be able to start catching up.
Since there are so many statisticians participating in this, would it be possible to build a secondary system that had a die roll in the background for N preservation wards connected to a button you could press, committing that number of P wards to a guaranteed upgrade, and that would be comparable to clicking twice on each attempt and getting frustrated? It seems like a fair trade-off... If I don't want to put up with the hassle of all that clicking, and I happen to have a stack of wards, I could press a button and immediately spend an amount of wards that falls somewhere within expectations of whatever chance I had at success. I don't know the number until I press the button and lose the wards, and I forego the possibility of outlier returns such as 1 ward success at 5% chance or 100 wards at 50%
The problem is there's no such thing as a "guaranteed" upgrade with Pres wards in Neverwinter. You could, possibly, fail that 10% upgrade *forever*. It's not like STO where each failure increases the chance of the next success so in theory, eventually, you'll hit 100%.
Going back to the originating topic, not on refining AD, not on getting the RNG changed in the slightest, not on the particular probability & statistics of how RNG work. I say this because it seems like every derail attempt has been taken in this thread so far, so to refocus... Why not create a second system for those that don't like RNG in refining? For those that have built 16k's (and im not far off) great... but I am tired of seeing new players leave because refining their first artifact through 50% takes 9 tries when they would have been fine dumping 2x pres wards in.
I would like to see every attempt to keep new players here vs. discouraging them out.
I would be ok that there was a checkbox so it would just keep trying until success or you run out of pres wards. The time sink and button crunching is my pet peeve. This shouldn't be a time sink.
I would love a checkbox to keep trying until success. It would save so much time. But I wouldn't have enough faith in the RNG system to use it. I don't believe the posted rate is true much of the time. That the rate actually varies, and at times, is possibly zero.
When I get nasty lose streaks like 50+ tries on 10%, it takes like half hour or more to do the upgrade because I click slowly and pause every five tries and take breaks. Sometimes the losses are so bad, I throw in the towel for the night. Then I come back the next morning and get upgraded on the first try.
We should not miss the point about wards here. A lot of them are needed (either pres or coal) and their supply through game itself is incredibly low. Thus, people are forced to buy them through ZEN shop. This needs to change by introducing some chain of quests that will increase the supply.
A game that wants to call itself "free to play" needs to provide a practical (emphasis here) access to all aspects of the game with some reasonable effort. Anything that is offered through money should only shorten the required time to get it, not be the main source of getting it. Even if Cryptic wanted to force the players to pay for the game, that should be limited to subscriptions. Here this is not the case since VIP provides nothing concerning wards. From what I read, they used to be purchasable through bars, but they changed it. I think that speaks volumes for the mentality of the company.
Just because they can be purchased from Zen store, it does not mean the purchaser pays money. Many people do AD -> Zen -> ward. Since AD came from game, indirectly, the ward is obtained from game. Although Zen came from someone paid money to buy, many did not actually spend money. With AD, you can also purchase ward from AH directly without converting to Zen although getting from Zen store is a better deal with coupon.
What you say about AD->ZEN is true, but considering that AD is needed almost for anything in this game, you must constantly farm content for AD, leaving aside quests for gear, boons, etc. If normal content would produce AD, that would not be a problem, but it doesn't.
I don't understand what you mean by AD is needed for almost for anything in this game. What you need (or want) is what AD can buy. Instead of buying them, you can farm them ... and sell them to get AD. There are a few content in the game requires AD to progress (as the game takes AD directly from your pocket) but there are not many. Frankly, I have not spend much AD for a long time. I do accumulating AD though and I am not actively farming AD like others do.
I did convert AD to Zen and have a big stash but even so, there is nothing I have the urge to buy in Zen store neither.
Yes, if you want free to play (as not taking out money from your pocket), you do need to work a bit.
I am fully aware that free to play=more work and didn't say anything different. I did say though, that things you can get with more work should have a reasonable time frame of acquiring. If playing for x months creates the need for 10 specific items and by that time you only have 2, then I hope you understand the problem.
As for the AD need, let me explain what I mean. Anything a player can't get from his normal gaming, he needs to use AD (or Zen) to buy. When I say "can't" I mean 2 things. 1) items that simply can't be acquired by playing the game e.g. specific companions/mounts or items based on RNG. 2) items that require too much time to get (more than the player is willing to spend playing the game). One can argue about the time each player spends gaming; some spend 3 hours/day, others 7+ hours/day. The trick here is that the game company needs to design it with an average daily play time (up to them to decide how much is that). In any case, when such a need is presented, the player must decide between abandoning doing quests and start to farming AD (including being forced in playing alts to that end) or spend money to be free to play the game as he enjoys it.
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greywyndMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 7,153Arc User
Going back to the originating topic, not on refining AD, not on getting the RNG changed in the slightest, not on the particular probability & statistics of how RNG work. I say this because it seems like every derail attempt has been taken in this thread so far, so to refocus... Why not create a second system for those that don't like RNG in refining? For those that have built 16k's (and im not far off) great... but I am tired of seeing new players leave because refining their first artifact through 50% takes 9 tries when they would have been fine dumping 2x pres wards in.
I would like to see every attempt to keep new players here vs. discouraging them out.
Because the existing system, with both Pres Wards and Coal Wards, works.
I'm not looking for forgiveness, and I'm way past asking permission. Earth just lost her best defender, so we're here to fight. And if you want to stand in our way, we'll fight you too.
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This double refinement weekend I upgrades two artifacts to mythic and used 21 Pres wards in total for all stages. For the last stage 5% chance, I used 8 wards for both artifacts (the second using none because it was successful first go). I'd say for every really bad result is there is likely a good one that ppl don't come to the forums to gloat about.
Those Pres wards I got from opening coffers - I opened around 130 coffers and got 5 Coal wards and 28 Pres Wards. I have found it fairly reliable that you get around one coal ward per 30 coffers (roughly).
First try: 25% success/75% failure
Second try: 25% success/75% failure
Third try: 25% success/75% failure
Fourth try: 25% success/75% failure
See the pattern? Subsequent attempts are in no way influenced by previous attempts.
"25% chance. I should have it in 4 tries." has logic, and is in fact merely a lazy statement of something that is basically true.
Your chance of success is 25%, so if we look at when you're likely to succeed
First try 1/4
Second try 3/4 (fail first) x 1/4 (succeed second) = 3/16
Third try 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 9/64
Fourth try 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 1/4 = 27/256
Now you could add these up to get the chance of having succeeded after 4 tries (64 + 48 + 36 + 27)/256 = 175/256 but it's actually easier to say your chance of 4 fails is (3/4)^4 = 81/256 so you should fail to get it after 4 tries less than 1/3 of the time so it is more likely than not that you will have it in 4 tries or less (in fact it's more likely than not you will have it inside 3 tries)
Also the mean (or expected number of tries) is indeed 4.
Even with "bad memory for lucky strikes" I can honestly claim that it happens much more often. In fact the probability to spend 2xor more the wards should be roughly equal to chance of the first lucky attempt. As I refined a lot of items I am brave enough to say that this is not happening.
Btw: The distribution says that with 10% chance label you have 50% chance to have your stuff already refined on your 10th attempt. As I did not keep the statistic as others I do not claim anything but I surely am a little bit sceptical about that.
Chance of not having it done in 9 attempts at 10% is 0.9^9 = 0.387 so you are way better than 50% to have it done by then, you hit 50% between 6 and 7 attempts.
Chance of not having it done in 20 attempts is 0.9^20 = 0.122 so around 1 in 8 will go over 20 attempts.
> Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games.
>
> And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG.
>
> If you want the guaranteed chance - that's what coal wards are for. What's the point of having something else??
His point is, if something has a 25% chance to success, let us load in the proper amount (call it adjusted refining cost) in preservation wards. If something has a 1% chance, then the cost is the same if you picked pres or coalescent, but don't let it cost MORE than a coa.
Basically it's taking the rng out of refining and giving things a max fixed cost. If you want to roll the dice and get a lower cost, then by all means do it 1 by 1.
Why should someone ever have to use a coa ward on a 25% chance success just to avoid clicking so many times?
For those that love the RNG and gambling, I don't want that portion changed for them, but Cryptic needs to realize not everyone loves, or even likes RNG. Some people do despise the way RNG works on refining and it drives those players away from this game.
Now then, there will still be pure RNG on stuff such as drops, lock boxes, and such...refining is just a non-necessity RNG.
Yes, the mean is 4, but if you know anything about statistics you are also aware that there are, and always will be, outliers.
No one tracks that, because its a happy event.
But we always make a note when we go over the 'expected' amount of Preservation Wards. Its a one-sided event of cognitive bias.
The problem is when you get lucky, the upside is very limited. The best you can do is a free upgrade costing no wards. While the losses on a bad streak is theoretically infinite, but realistically, all the wards you can afford at that time.
A game that wants to call itself "free to play" needs to provide a practical (emphasis here) access to all aspects of the game with some reasonable effort. Anything that is offered through money should only shorten the required time to get it, not be the main source of getting it. Even if Cryptic wanted to force the players to pay for the game, that should be limited to subscriptions. Here this is not the case since VIP provides nothing concerning wards. From what I read, they used to be purchasable through bars, but they changed it. I think that speaks volumes for the mentality of the company.
What you say about AD->ZEN is true, but considering that AD is needed almost for anything in this game, you must constantly farm content for AD, leaving aside quests for gear, boons, etc. If normal content would produce AD, that would not be a problem, but it doesn't.
1% chance = 100 pres wards (chance) or 1 coal ward (definite). Essentially he's suggesting a 'scaling coal ward' where you spend the stated ward amount in full.
However, his methodology isn't really conducive to balance, where a 25% chance means 1 in 4 so 4 pres wards and a 10% chance means 1 in 10 so 10 wards. It's logical, but is it balanced?
There could be an argument that a 10% chance requires 90 pres wards if they are based on the cost of the absolute (coal ward).
Personally I would prefer to see a cap or limit, where once passed, you get a guaranteed upgrade and that that cap should be based on the above.
So a 10% chance means that if you are unfortunate enough to burn through 90 wards, the 90th is a guaranteed upgrade.
Xael De Armadeon: DC
Xane De Armadeon: CW
Zen De Armadeon: OP
Zohar De Armadeon: TR
Chrion De Armadeon: SW
Gosti Big Belly: GWF
Barney McRustbucket: GF
Lt. Thackeray: HR
Lucius De Armadeon: BD
Member of Casual Dailies - XBox
(btw, as of a couple of hours from now I'll be off net for a week so won't be able to reply to this thread, but will look on my return)
I did convert AD to Zen and have a big stash but even so, there is nothing I have the urge to buy in Zen store neither.
Yes, if you want free to play (as not taking out money from your pocket), you do need to work a bit.
While the RNG can be irritating, as has been stated, that is the nature of statistics.
I had a recent person complain that they had spent two weeks grinding on a campaign and were only about half done. They seemed frustrated that campaigns took soooo long to complete.
The problem is in your expectations. You expect a 25% chance to yield a positive result within 4 tries. As has been stated, that shows ignorance of how statistics work. Over a very large dataset (thousands of numbers), then the 25% chance would be seen. But over a small dataset (refining your equipment), your specific numbers will vary greatly. Some people will be lucky, others not so lucky. I was not so lucky this x2 RP event. I used more wards than average. I understand...it is not fun being on the receiving end of a losing streak.
It seems like a fair trade-off... If I don't want to put up with the hassle of all that clicking, and I happen to have a stack of wards, I could press a button and immediately spend an amount of wards that falls somewhere within expectations of whatever chance I had at success. I don't know the number until I press the button and lose the wards, and I forego the possibility of outlier returns such as 1 ward success at 5% chance or 100 wards at 50%
I would like to see every attempt to keep new players here vs. discouraging them out.
When I get nasty lose streaks like 50+ tries on 10%, it takes like half hour or more to do the upgrade because I click slowly and pause every five tries and take breaks. Sometimes the losses are so bad, I throw in the towel for the night. Then I come back the next morning and get upgraded on the first try.
I am fully aware that free to play=more work and didn't say anything different. I did say though, that things you can get with more work should have a reasonable time frame of acquiring. If playing for x months creates the need for 10 specific items and by that time you only have 2, then I hope you understand the problem.
As for the AD need, let me explain what I mean. Anything a player can't get from his normal gaming, he needs to use AD (or Zen) to buy. When I say "can't" I mean 2 things. 1) items that simply can't be acquired by playing the game e.g. specific companions/mounts or items based on RNG. 2) items that require too much time to get (more than the player is willing to spend playing the game). One can argue about the time each player spends gaming; some spend 3 hours/day, others 7+ hours/day. The trick here is that the game company needs to design it with an average daily play time (up to them to decide how much is that). In any case, when such a need is presented, the player must decide between abandoning doing quests and start to farming AD (including being forced in playing alts to that end) or spend money to be free to play the game as he enjoys it.