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luckbox odds coming to STO soon?

faxmachine#9639 faxmachine Member Posts: 120 Arc User
yesterday they updated the neverwinter luckboxes to show the odds:

https://www.arcgames.com/en/games/neverwinter/news/detail/11517143

there must have been some legal reason they were forced to do this so it will probably happen in STO soon too.

greate news!
Post edited by baddmoonrizin on

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    timelords1701timelords1701 Member Posts: 556 Arc User
    Interesting development, odds have always been unfavorable.
    But at least now theres no hiding it..
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    leemwatsonleemwatson Member Posts: 5,372 Arc User
    And you're going to get the inevitable 'I bought 250 boxes and never got a ship' if they do it that way. Needs to be displayed as a percentage or some folk won't understand.
    "You don't want to patrol!? You don't want to escort!? You don't want to defend the Federation's Starbases!? Then why are you flying my Starships!? If you were a Klingon you'd be killed on the spot, but lucky for you.....you WERE in Starfleet. Let's see how New Zealand Penal Colony suits you." Adm A. Necheyev.
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    angrytargangrytarg Member Posts: 11,001 Arc User
    > @leemwatson said:
    > And you're going to get the inevitable 'I bought 250 boxes and never got a ship' if they do it that way. Needs to be displayed as a percentage or some folk won't understand.

    If they adopt the NW model you'll get your ship guaranteed with 250 boxes. If you scroll down you see every box fills a reward bar with milestone prizes. All of them probably more or less worthless filler, but at 250 you get a choice box of the lockboxes' main prizes.
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    husanakxhusanakx Member Posts: 1,601 Arc User
    edited May 2022
    I don't see them willingly doing the fill the bar get a ship at 250 type deal here.... willingly.

    Having said that, perhaps this is a way around the legality issues. Its not a gamble box anymore... at 250 boxes you get the big prize.

    I think its an interesting idea to get around the its gambling arguments. However prepare yourself. Those "you opened 100 here is a prize, 200 here you go 250 WO WO" prize boxes will be account bound. Also expect the odds on unbound wins to go DOWN. :) lmao Careful what you wish for.
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    rattler2rattler2 Member, Star Trek Online Moderator Posts: 58,158 Community Moderator
    Lets not pull out pitchforks or anything and just focus on the details.

    The idea sounds interesting and could be implimented into STO, however we would need new UI elements. It might also mean an increase in supply for certain ships as well on the Exchange. I don't see them forcing account bind on pickup on anything as that would cause some serious backlash and throw the economy out of whack.

    People who open boxes usually get stuff they don't need and post them on the Exchange for those who do. Changing that would not only devalue the lockbox gear, it would probably cause a lot of gear to just be seen as vendor trash rather than something someone else COULD use, but also cut into Cryptic's income.

    I don't know how similar Neverwinter's lockboxes are to STO's, but there are ways to make this work over here if they do decide to do it. And from my perspective, account bind on pickup is not one of them.
    db80k0m-89201ed8-eadb-45d3-830f-bb2f0d4c0fe7.png?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOjdlMGQxODg5ODIyNjQzNzNhNWYwZDQxNWVhMGQyNmUwIiwiaXNzIjoidXJuOmFwcDo3ZTBkMTg4OTgyMjY0MzczYTVmMGQ0MTVlYTBkMjZlMCIsIm9iaiI6W1t7InBhdGgiOiJcL2ZcL2ExOGQ4ZWM2LTUyZjQtNDdiMS05YTI1LTVlYmZkYmJkOGM3N1wvZGI4MGswbS04OTIwMWVkOC1lYWRiLTQ1ZDMtODMwZi1iYjJmMGQ0YzBmZTcucG5nIn1dXSwiYXVkIjpbInVybjpzZXJ2aWNlOmZpbGUuZG93bmxvYWQiXX0.8G-Pg35Qi8qxiKLjAofaKRH6fmNH3qAAEI628gW0eXc
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    davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,544 Arc User
    edited May 2022
    rattler2 wrote: »
    Lets not pull out pitchforks or anything and just focus on the details.

    The idea sounds interesting and could be implemented into STO, however we would need new UI elements. It might also mean an increase in supply for certain ships as well on the Exchange. I don't see them forcing account bind on pickup on anything as that would cause some serious backlash and throw the economy out of whack.

    People who open boxes usually get stuff they don't need and post them on the Exchange for those who do. Changing that would not only devalue the lockbox gear, it would probably cause a lot of gear to just be seen as vendor trash rather than something someone else COULD use, but also cut into Cryptic's income.

    I don't know how similar Neverwinter's lockboxes are to STO's, but there are ways to make this work over here if they do decide to do it. And from my perspective, account bind on pickup is not one of them.

    All true. I'm very happy with being able to buy weapon packs, traits, etc. from the exchange instead of opening lock boxes for them, and being able to sell my own unwanted items when I do open boxes for the lobi.

    One simple way to offer a guaranteed ship choice after 250 boxes would be to sell the ship choice box for lobi.

    Unlike adding a bar that increases every box opened, doing that would not require any code changes. It might also be a change Cryptic management could live with.
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    rattler2rattler2 Member, Star Trek Online Moderator Posts: 58,158 Community Moderator
    Unlike adding a bar that increases every box opened, doing that would not require any code changes. It might also be a change Cryptic management could live with.

    Except that Cryptic also runs Neverwinter. So... why would they need to "live with it" when they're already doing it in one of their other games?
    db80k0m-89201ed8-eadb-45d3-830f-bb2f0d4c0fe7.png?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOjdlMGQxODg5ODIyNjQzNzNhNWYwZDQxNWVhMGQyNmUwIiwiaXNzIjoidXJuOmFwcDo3ZTBkMTg4OTgyMjY0MzczYTVmMGQ0MTVlYTBkMjZlMCIsIm9iaiI6W1t7InBhdGgiOiJcL2ZcL2ExOGQ4ZWM2LTUyZjQtNDdiMS05YTI1LTVlYmZkYmJkOGM3N1wvZGI4MGswbS04OTIwMWVkOC1lYWRiLTQ1ZDMtODMwZi1iYjJmMGQ0YzBmZTcucG5nIn1dXSwiYXVkIjpbInVybjpzZXJ2aWNlOmZpbGUuZG93bmxvYWQiXX0.8G-Pg35Qi8qxiKLjAofaKRH6fmNH3qAAEI628gW0eXc
    I can't take it anymore! Could everyone just chill out for two seconds before something CRAZY happens again?!
    The nut who actually ground out many packs. The resident forum voice of reason (I HAZ FORUM REP! YAY!)
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    davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,544 Arc User
    edited May 2022
    rattler2 wrote: »
    Unlike adding a bar that increases every box opened, doing that would not require any code changes. It might also be a change Cryptic management could live with.

    Except that Cryptic also runs Neverwinter. So... why would they need to "live with it" when they're already doing it in one of their other games?

    Sorry if I wasn't clear, I wasn't saying that Cryptic couldn't live with a progress bar.

    I was saying: this is an easier alternative method that probably requires less developer effort.

    And considering just the alternatives: it is one that Cryptic could accept, as opposed to other alternatives they might not.
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    darkbladejkdarkbladejk Member Posts: 3,738 Community Moderator
    Honestly I think knowing the odds is an overhyped thing as it won't change much at the end of the day. Folks who are going to buy boxes will continue to buy boxes just like folks know the odds of the Powerball and Mega Millions lottery but still play them. It's a cool bit of info to have but isn't going to make or break anything.

    With all that said this reminds me of a hybrid system between what SWTOR does and what STO does now. Basically over in SWTOR the longer you went without a grand prize of sorts, you got increased odds of dropping one until you got something. If they did bring this to STO I think it would do alot of good to bringing down some of the ship prices in the long run.
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    evilmark444evilmark444 Member Posts: 6,950 Arc User
    there must have been some legal reason they were forced to do this

    Not necessarily, it could simply be that Gearbox told them to be more transparent, or even that the Neverwinter team specifically decided it was the best thing to do.
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    thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 5,165 Arc User
    there must have been some legal reason they were forced to do this

    Not necessarily, it could simply be that Gearbox told them to be more transparent, or even that the Neverwinter team specifically decided it was the best thing to do.

    That's funny :D

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    seaofsorrowsseaofsorrows Member Posts: 10,918 Arc User
    Honestly I think knowing the odds is an overhyped thing as it won't change much at the end of the day. Folks who are going to buy boxes will continue to buy boxes just like folks know the odds of the Powerball and Mega Millions lottery but still play them. It's a cool bit of info to have but isn't going to make or break anything.

    You're not wrong, telling people the odds doesn't really seem to effect people's willingness to buy. This though, in my opinion, is an argument in favor of posting the odds. If it's not going to dramatically hurt sales (or might not effect it at all) then there is no downside. There is never a downside to transparency between parties when conducting transactions. It also gives Cryptic an 'out' when people complain about 'I spent (insert insane amount of money here) and I didn't get a ship' Cryptic can fall back on the fact that they were up front with the odds from the beginning. If someone has the information, and they spend anyway, the responsibility is on them for the outcome. At least that's how I see it.

    Interestingly enough, CasualSAB over on Youtube just released a video on this very thing that's pretty good. They did a very in depth dive of Star Trek onlines current drop rates, STO's current 'pitty system' and also discussed the Neverwinter Change and how it could effect STO if it was implimented. You can see that video here.

    It's a very good video, and I very much recommend it, especially if you're one of those people that thinks that people selling Lockbox or Promo ships on the exchange for 1.5B are being 'greedy.' The average ship costs about $200 USD and the math in this video shows that most of these 'greedy' transactions are being done at either 'break even' or even at a loss.

    If you're unhappy with exchange/trade prices.. start focusing your blame where it belongs. On the poor drop rates dictated by Cryptic.
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    qultuqqultuq Member Posts: 989 Arc User
    > @faxmachine#9639 said:
    > yesterday they updated the neverwinter luckboxes to show the odds:
    >
    > https://www.arcgames.com/en/games/neverwinter/news/detail/11517143
    >
    > there must have been some legal reason they were forced to do this so it will probably happen in STO soon too.
    >
    > greate news!

    There are legal reasons. Gearbox is a Swedish Company and Sweden has been one of the more aggressive countries pushing for lockbox transparency and regulations.

    https://mediawrites.law/the-swedish-consumer-agency-publishes-report-on-loot-boxes-and-other-gambling-like-features-in-games/
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    husanakxhusanakx Member Posts: 1,601 Arc User
    edited May 2022
    rattler2 wrote: »
    I don't see them forcing account bind on pickup on anything as that would cause some serious backlash and throw the economy out of whack.

    To be clear I'm not suggesting they will make all lockbox items won account bound.... only ones people win with a new pity system.

    Its the other way around if they give people pity mid tier prizes it will destroy the market for them. It would increase supply on top end and mid tier rewards and greatly devalue them. Which would mean cryptic would ultimately sell far fewer keys.

    I was only half joking. IMO they will account bind anything you get from the pity system. Which imo isn't bad. You opened 250 boxes here is that ship for your own use. Don't think it will be a problem. The alternative is every new ship will have far less value on the exchange as the supply will be greatly increased. If odds on a ship are 1/250... giving away one 100% of the time at 250 doubles the drop rate. Doubling the drop rate = low value. Just remember back to the time Cryptic tried having GOLD lockbox shsips... and the pack only had two ships in it. The drop rate was = to the inf box prize maybe even worsse... BUT with only two options in the box (Na'kuhl Acheros Battlecruiser or Herald Vonph Dreadnought Carrier) they where heavily oversupplied. I remember buying both those ships for 70m when inf box ships where at 200-300.

    I don't know perhaps with the current trend for ships going past the 1.5b ec exchange limit perhaps some over supply wouldn't be terrible and not cost Cryptic a ton of real $. I still don't think they will experiment that much with their $ systems... its a big risk to saturate ship supply. To be clear I also like the idea in general. Its a cute way to potentially get around some future legal issues.

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    crypticarmsmancrypticarmsman Member Posts: 4,115 Arc User
    Are you kidding? ADD something more to STO Lockboxes? That would take more work by the Dev team; and these poor folks are overworked as it is (according to Kael). Hell no one on the team (Dev or Marketing) seems to have the time to remove the May 19th downtime notification from the STO launcher - I was still seeing it as of yesterday 5/22.

    You expect these guys to be able to add something like this with their 'busy' schedules?
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    evilmark444evilmark444 Member Posts: 6,950 Arc User
    Hell no one on the team (Dev or Marketing) seems to have the time to remove the May 19th downtime notification from the STO launcher - I was still seeing it as of yesterday 5/22.

    Kael is on vacation for a few weeks (he's moving), so it probably got overlooked. Announcements are currently being handled by the Neverwinter CM I believe.
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    wraithshadow13wraithshadow13 Member Posts: 1,728 Arc User
    I'm a bit of a mixed opinion on this.

    Given that STO is doing, possibly, WAAAAAAAY better than NW, they might be more reserved swapping to the NW way of doing the lockbox. I wouldn't mind the rate improvements but more so, i like the idea that unlocking them builds to a guaranteed reward of actual value. That would be a nice addition. At that point, you've already paid for it and it makes the lottobox seem less predatory.


    I know a few of the asian MMO markets were hit with actual legislation a year or so ago, which required lockbox odds to be made public, so it might be a small reason but I seriously doubt gearbox would have been the driving factor. Not unless THEY were trying to avoid legislation, i suppose. I'd love to hear the actual reasons behind it, as well as the actual drop rates pre and post change.


    Regardless, I'll be curious to see if this DOES hit STO or CO, but I doubt STO will be happening anytime soon.
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    thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 5,165 Arc User
    I'm a bit of a mixed opinion on this.

    Given that STO is doing, possibly, WAAAAAAAY better than NW,

    Actually, no. According to the financial details released when PWE was sold to Gearbox, NW had made approximately double the revenue STO had despite being a younger game.

    I'm not sure where people get this impression that STO is somehow the biggest game Cryptic has?


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    lokharnolokharno Member Posts: 57 Arc User
    edited May 2022
    If I understand this, I love it, and I hope we see something analogous in STO ASAP. It's great from an "ethical free-to-play" perspective, and I don't see any downsides. It means:
    1. We know that the drop rates exist. I find it strange that discussions of loot box drop rates usually start from the assumption that game companies aren't manipulating drop rates on an individualized basis to maximize intermittent reinforcement effects. We assume that we're playing a "fair lottery." But why would we assume that? The best thing about drop rate disclosure is that it implicitly commits the company to the representation that drop rates are constant and that drops aren't serially correlated.
    2. We know what the drop rates are. (Duh.) More information is better than less.
    3. The pity mechanic makes the Gambler's Fallacy more-or-less true, and thereby mitigates one of the behavioral distortions that make Loot Lotto actually harmful.

    Looks like an unambiguous win all around.

    (edited for formatting)
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    trekfangrrrl#6910 trekfangrrrl Member Posts: 111 Arc User

    I'm not sure where people get this impression that STO is somehow the biggest game Cryptic has?

    its in the name...

    Star Trek

    The only reason this game is even relatively successful at this point is the gambling. Take that away and it probably couldn't break even without laying off half of the already small dev team. There is no way it could survive purely on it's own merits even with the Trek name pinned on it.
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    darkbladejkdarkbladejk Member Posts: 3,738 Community Moderator
    Guys lets keep this related to the discussion of whether or not we think similar things will be done with STO. If this devolves purely into another "lockboxes are gambling" debate I will have to shut this thread down.
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