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Test results of 12,000 lockboxes on Tribble

thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 4,529 Arc User
Reddit user "Startrekker" posted this very nice information on reddit and I wanted to share with the forum folks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/sto/comments/lurgky/i_opened_12k_infinity_lb_on_tribble_here_are_the/
Startrekker wrote:

My Video on the openings

Spreadsheet with all the data.

Video - Playlist of Raw Opening Footage

Split the 12k into 6 opening cycles. First 4 were 1500 per, then did ~3k on last 2 as I realized I may have just enough inventory space for it. There spreadsheet contains a breakdown for each individual lot opened.

Simplified Pie Chart

Purpose

My intent with this large opening sample was too gain some insight into the drop rates of various items from the Infinity Lockbox.

I went with 12,000 as that was the previous sample size used back in 2014 by others testing some of the original LB per the STO wiki.

Findings

The "grand prize" drop rate is consistent with what it was 7 years ago with previous test. On average, I got a ship once every 240 boxes (a 0.417% drop rate). However, it is important to note that a ship is not guaranteed every 240 boxes. As you can see in the raw opening footage, I had several periods of no ships dropping for hundreds of boxes.

Why did I open on Tribble?

I copied over 100-200 keys at a time a ton to test on Tribble. Like most here, I can't afford to dump $12k on STO keys. Based on the drop rates seen here, I'm confident that there is no difference in the drop rate between Tribble or Holodeck with regards to lock boxes.

Kudos to Startrekker for those great details.

The-Grand-Nagus
Join Date: Sep 2008

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Comments

  • garaffegaraffe Member Posts: 891 Arc User
    A very nice analysis. I wonder if they can test other drop rates such as drop rates for
    1. promo ships
    2. vanity shields
    3. lockbox omni beams
  • peterconnorfirstpeterconnorfirst Member Posts: 6,076 Arc User
    Hey that’s cool info. Thanks for passing it on Nagus. :)
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  • keepcalmchiveonkeepcalmchiveon Member Posts: 1,957 Arc User
    so a ten pack of keys is 1125 zen ~ 11.25 USD or 1.25 each. (if i am correct in the value of 100 zen = 1.00 USD)

    that means 1.25 x 240 = 300 USD to get the avg of one ship.

    unless my math is wrong... :)


    meh

  • cbrjwrrcbrjwrr Member Posts: 2,782 Arc User
    so a ten pack of keys is 1125 zen ~ 11.25 USD or 1.25 each. (if i am correct in the value of 100 zen = 1.00 USD)

    that means 1.25 x 240 = 300 USD to get the avg of one ship.

    unless my math is wrong... :)


    The price of Zen varies. Can't check what the USD amounts are, but for GBP you have (at current prices) 1200 Zen at £7.99, 2400 Zen for £15.99, 6360 Zen for £39.99, 13200 Zen for £79.99 or 27600 Zen for £159.99.

    So, a Lockbox ship on average costs a little bit under £159.99, which at current exchange rates is $220, ish.

    It's also worth noting that if you run the numbers through, there's still a 33%+ chance of no ship.

  • thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 4,529 Arc User
    This is why I never ever try to get a ship from boxes. There is a 100% chance to get the ship by buying it on the exchange, and my preferred method is grind dil, trade for zen, buy keys or promo packs, sell those on the exchange for EC, then buy the ship I want on the exchange. The only time I will open boxes or packs myself is for lobi, and then only if the item I want is bind on pickup and not something I can buy on the exchange using EC.

    The-Grand-Nagus
    Join Date: Sep 2008

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  • westmetalswestmetals Member Posts: 5,260 Arc User
    edited March 1
    so a ten pack of keys is 1125 zen ~ 11.25 USD or 1.25 each. (if i am correct in the value of 100 zen = 1.00 USD)

    that means 1.25 x 240 = 300 USD to get the avg of one ship.

    unless my math is wrong... :)


    That's at the "baseline" price of Zen; however, there have been sales where the ratio has shifted to as much as 145 zen per USD, if bought in the largest available quantity (Arc has persistent bonuses for larger purchases, and these stack with sale percentages).

    1125 zen (per 10 pack of keys) x 24 (24 packs) = 27,000 zen. Which at ratios of 135 or more (fairly common sale ratios) is less than 200 USD.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 8,809 Arc User
    Keys go on sale for 20-25% off many times a year too, so the average price with stacked zen and key bundle discounts will be lower.

    It's still a bad idea to open boxes just to get a ship, the exchange is cheaper and offers 100% guaranteed success. Only open packs for lobi, or if you want the rush from gambling, or you really need those sweet, sweet mini R&D mat packs.
  • westmetalswestmetals Member Posts: 5,260 Arc User
    Keys go on sale for 20-25% off many times a year too, so the average price with stacked zen and key bundle discounts will be lower.

    It's still a bad idea to open boxes just to get a ship, the exchange is cheaper and offers 100% guaranteed success. Only open packs for lobi, or if you want the rush from gambling, or you really need those sweet, sweet mini R&D mat packs.

    True... I didn't factor that in, so the price per ship (average) may be significantly less than 200 USD.
  • keepcalmchiveonkeepcalmchiveon Member Posts: 1,957 Arc User
    yeah, forgot the zen sales and key sales.

    but lets say even at 25% off at a base price of 300 thats still 225. could it get below 200....maybe, but im not hedging on significantly. lets be fair and say it gets to 180 with zen sales and you wait for key sales...

    better than 300 for sure, but shy of 200 for a ship is still a huge hit. not worth it. and even then, this is based on the avg of 240 boxes to get one.

    if you are unlucky as i am, that number probably goes up to 360 or doubles before such a reward.

    still, not worth it in my view. your view i am sure will and can be different.
    meh

  • saurializardsaurializard Member Posts: 3,632 Arc User
    As someone who always test ships on Tribble, copy and pasting the same character with lockbox keys many many MANY times, it is consistent with my findings as well. ~200 boxes on average and I have most of the lockbox and promo ships there at this point, so you can imagine the THOUSANDS of copies of characters I have copy-pasted to Tribble during the last years.

    Only THRICE did I get a ship before the 20th key or promo pack and I didn't even try to get a ship pack, two of them on Holodeck (thankfully).
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  • foppotee#4552 foppotee Member Posts: 1,687 Arc User

    Until Cryptic officially states the statistics, odds, are the same on Holodeck as are on Tribble then this data is only good on Tribble & shouldn't be conflated to be accurate for Holodeck, as has always been the case.

  • thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 4,529 Arc User
    Until Cryptic officially states the statistics,

    That's never going to happen, unless required by law. So since that's (probably) never going to happen, this is the best data people are going to get about lockbox odds. And people should appreciate folks who spend the time to provide it in such great detail.

    The-Grand-Nagus
    Join Date: Sep 2008

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  • corinthalascorinthalas Member Posts: 608 Arc User
    edited March 1
    So, given that they're unlikely to use 'magic numbers' like 0.417% for something like this, I'd guess that the under-the-hood range is 1 out of 200 for an T6 ship token, or 0.5%. Since each lockbox is $1 each to open, that's definitely in the whale-hunting price range. Far too rich for my tastes.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 8,809 Arc User
    edited March 1
    Until Cryptic officially states the statistics, odds, are the same on Holodeck as are on Tribble then this data is only good on Tribble & shouldn't be conflated to be accurate for Holodeck, as has always been the case.

    Why would Cryptic bother to set different odds on the test server and keep it secret for 6+ years? As an evil conspiracy to trick us? That isn't impossible but it seems much less plausible than the odds being exactly the same.

    Also at least one whale opened 1,000+ packs on Holodeck and got similar results. I could probably find the threads with a few days of searching (search is not good here).
  • westmetalswestmetals Member Posts: 5,260 Arc User
    edited March 1
    yeah, forgot the zen sales and key sales.

    but lets say even at 25% off at a base price of 300 thats still 225. could it get below 200....maybe, but im not hedging on significantly. lets be fair and say it gets to 180 with zen sales and you wait for key sales...

    better than 300 for sure, but shy of 200 for a ship is still a huge hit. not worth it. and even then, this is based on the avg of 240 boxes to get one.

    if you are unlucky as i am, that number probably goes up to 360 or doubles before such a reward.

    still, not worth it in my view. your view i am sure will and can be different.

    You're not factoring in the persistent bulk discounts on Arc... if you buy th larger amounts of zen you always get more, and the sales stack on top of that. It usually works out to 35-40% total, and one one occasion was 45%. (27,000 to 29,000 zen for 200 USD).

    Meaning that even without a key sale at all you're looking at equal to or less than 200 USD. (As I mathed out above, the assumed 240 keys work out to 27,000 zen).
  • westmetalswestmetals Member Posts: 5,260 Arc User
    So, given that they're unlikely to use 'magic numbers' like 0.417% for something like this, I'd guess that the under-the-hood range is 1 out of 200 for an T6 ship token, or 0.5%. Since each lockbox is $1 each to open, that's definitely in the whale-hunting price range. Far too rich for my tastes.

    Why would you assume 1/200 instead of, say, 1/240?
  • corinthalascorinthalas Member Posts: 608 Arc User
    edited March 1
    westmetals wrote: »
    So, given that they're unlikely to use 'magic numbers' like 0.417% for something like this, I'd guess that the under-the-hood range is 1 out of 200 for an T6 ship token, or 0.5%. Since each lockbox is $1 each to open, that's definitely in the whale-hunting price range. Far too rich for my tastes.

    Why would you assume 1/200 instead of, say, 1/240?

    Why would they use 0.417% instead of 0.5%?
  • westmetalswestmetals Member Posts: 5,260 Arc User
    westmetals wrote: »
    So, given that they're unlikely to use 'magic numbers' like 0.417% for something like this, I'd guess that the under-the-hood range is 1 out of 200 for an T6 ship token, or 0.5%. Since each lockbox is $1 each to open, that's definitely in the whale-hunting price range. Far too rich for my tastes.

    Why would you assume 1/200 instead of, say, 1/240?

    Why would they use 0.417% instead of 0.5%?

    Maybe they didn't. Maybe it's really 0.4% (1/250) and the test was slightly lucky? But also... what is to stop them from using a non-round number?
  • saurializardsaurializard Member Posts: 3,632 Arc User
    Until Cryptic officially states the statistics, odds, are the same on Holodeck as are on Tribble then this data is only good on Tribble & shouldn't be conflated to be accurate for Holodeck, as has always been the case.

    Why would Cryptic bother to set different odds on the test server and keep it secret for 6+ years? As an evil conspiracy to trick us? That isn't impossible but it seems much less plausible than the odds being exactly the same.

    Also at least one whale opened 1,000+ packs on Holodeck and got similar results. I could probably find the threads with a few days of searching (search is not good here).
    If anything, even if the odds were different to trick people, they'd be even lower on Holodeck.
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  • foppotee#4552 foppotee Member Posts: 1,687 Arc User
    Until Cryptic officially states the statistics, odds, are the same on Holodeck as are on Tribble then this data is only good on Tribble & shouldn't be conflated to be accurate for Holodeck, as has always been the case.

    Why would Cryptic bother to set different odds on the test server and keep it secret for 6+ years? As an evil conspiracy to trick us? That isn't impossible but it seems much less plausible than the odds being exactly the same.

    Also at least one whale opened 1,000+ packs on Holodeck and got similar results. I could probably find the threads with a few days of searching (search is not good here).

    If I was into marketing & not regulated it isn't inconceivable to use Tribble as a gateway to entice consumers with better odds. Think of many of the basic casino marketing tactics & apply them digitally when applicable. As of yet, this isn't regulated legally like online gambling, it's more wild wild west "house rules".
    Until Cryptic officially states the statistics,

    That's never going to happen, unless required by law. So since that's (probably) never going to happen, this is the best data people are going to get about lockbox odds. And people should appreciate folks who spend the time to provide it in such great detail.

    I agree it wouldn't be published until legally required & from a business perspective that's how I'd want it. Also, I never said anything remotely close to not appreciating the folks that give effort offering such insights so don't try to detract my statement which is true about remembering they, the servers, are separate. This is a best guess approach but there should be no insinuation of Tribble's odds being the same as Holodeck's.
  • thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 4,529 Arc User
    If anything, even if the odds were different to trick people, they'd be even lower on Holodeck.

    Exactly. First, what would be the "motivation" to trick people? Obviously to make them believe the chances were better than they actually are, so they would actually open boxes on live. So IF we were assuming they were trying to trick people, would they really use such an incredibly low number on Tribble? It just doesn't make sense TBH.

    The-Grand-Nagus
    Join Date: Sep 2008

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  • evilmark444evilmark444 Member Posts: 5,836 Arc User
    If I was into marketing & not regulated it isn't inconceivable to use Tribble as a gateway to entice consumers with better odds.

    If they were trying to do that the odds would be much better than what the test results say, plus they would be risking accidentally pushing a patch to Holodeck with the adjusted Tribble odds still in effect which is something they REALLY wouldn't want to happen. People already open plenty of boxes anyway so they have no reason to do it at all.
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  • keepcalmchiveonkeepcalmchiveon Member Posts: 1,957 Arc User
    westmetals wrote: »
    yeah, forgot the zen sales and key sales.

    but lets say even at 25% off at a base price of 300 thats still 225. could it get below 200....maybe, but im not hedging on significantly. lets be fair and say it gets to 180 with zen sales and you wait for key sales...

    better than 300 for sure, but shy of 200 for a ship is still a huge hit. not worth it. and even then, this is based on the avg of 240 boxes to get one.

    if you are unlucky as i am, that number probably goes up to 360 or doubles before such a reward.

    still, not worth it in my view. your view i am sure will and can be different.

    You're not factoring in the persistent bulk discounts on Arc... if you buy th larger amounts of zen you always get more, and the sales stack on top of that. It usually works out to 35-40% total, and one one occasion was 45%. (27,000 to 29,000 zen for 200 USD).

    Meaning that even without a key sale at all you're looking at equal to or less than 200 USD. (As I mathed out above, the assumed 240 keys work out to 27,000 zen).

    oh yeah, forgot about this offer that applies as well at times. i didnt factor in this. but i was gleening for around 180 with add on sales.

    again, with all these feasible locations for a discount, im ok with saying it can come down to 150 (50% off), but who waits that long for all these dominoes to fall in line? even at 150 at a chance luck for it, at that cost, is too high for me.

    this is also why i wont open them for vanity shields. 150 for a ship, yes, is far better than 150 for a vanity shield, but even then, too much for pixels.
    meh

  • foppotee#4552 foppotee Member Posts: 1,687 Arc User
    If I was into marketing & not regulated it isn't inconceivable to use Tribble as a gateway to entice consumers with better odds.

    If they were trying to do that the odds would be much better than what the test results say, plus they would be risking accidentally pushing a patch to Holodeck with the adjusted Tribble odds still in effect which is something they REALLY wouldn't want to happen. People already open plenty of boxes anyway so they have no reason to do it at all.

    Well that's the merger of art & science within marketing & the allure of gambling too, a simple nudge here & there nothing usually too drastic.

    Now you're idea of "accidently pushing a patch" to Holodeck that would be intended for Tribble I'm sure is a possibility, but being different servers I'm sure allows some safeguard from that ever happening, I'd hope, though part of me would find something like that funny.

    All of this is of course speculation of Holodeck & Tribble having different statistics which is just as valid as the idea speculating that Holodeck & Tribble have the same statistics, only Cryptic knows & I'm sure a few others: CBS & PWE.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 8,809 Arc User
    edited March 2
    If I was into marketing & not regulated it isn't inconceivable to use Tribble as a gateway to entice consumers with better odds.

    If they were trying to do that the odds would be much better than what the test results say, plus they would be risking accidentally pushing a patch to Holodeck with the adjusted Tribble odds still in effect which is something they REALLY wouldn't want to happen. People already open plenty of boxes anyway so they have no reason to do it at all.

    Well that's the merger of art & science within marketing & the allure of gambling too, a simple nudge here & there nothing usually too drastic.

    Now you're idea of "accidently pushing a patch" to Holodeck that would be intended for Tribble I'm sure is a possibility, but being different servers I'm sure allows some safeguard from that ever happening, I'd hope, though part of me would find something like that funny.

    All of this is of course speculation of Holodeck & Tribble having different statistics which is just as valid as the idea speculating that Holodeck & Tribble have the same statistics, only Cryptic knows & I'm sure a few others: CBS & PWE.

    I disagree with the "just as valid" part of your speculation.

    It's less work, more ethical, and less risky (because of the chance of being exposed) to have the odds be the same.

    I need more evidence than "it could've happened" to believe in a conspiracy, especially one that has been kept secret for 6+ years without any ex-employees breaking the silence.

    (flame/troll/political bit removed) - darkbladejk
    Post edited by darkbladejk on
  • thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 4,529 Arc User
    I disagree with the "just as valid" part of your speculation,

    Same. I mean, the purpose of Tribble is to test things before they go live. Things on Tribble are supposed to be as similar to live as possible, with certain specific exceptions. But generally speaking, unless there is some actual basis for thinking otherwise it is logical to assume things work the same way on Tribble as they do on live as the default assumption.

    The-Grand-Nagus
    Join Date: Sep 2008

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  • saurializardsaurializard Member Posts: 3,632 Arc User
    The only thing that isn't similar for promo packs on Tribble is that they often don't get updated to include the latest ship on time, so the newest ship can't be reviewed first, so interested players can't know if it's worth trying to invest or trade to get it now while it's currently the "trendy stuff" or waiting and risking being unable to find people selling it.
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  • lianthelialianthelia Member Posts: 7,476 Arc User
    This is why I never ever try to get a ship from boxes. There is a 100% chance to get the ship by buying it on the exchange, and my preferred method is grind dil, trade for zen, buy keys or promo packs, sell those on the exchange for EC, then buy the ship I want on the exchange. The only time I will open boxes or packs myself is for lobi, and then only if the item I want is bind on pickup and not something I can buy on the exchange using EC.

    Except that isn't even always the case, if the ship you want isn't on the exchange then you either aren't going to get it or someone is going to gouge you for it
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  • wideningxgyrewideningxgyre Member Posts: 664 Arc User
    Of course, the long-run averages are the safest bet when making spending choices.

    But, you really cannot underestimate the quirkiness of RNG. Over the years, I've never opened more than 10 boxes here and there and have gotten 3 grand prize ships. During the recent 50% lobi sale, I was 20 lobi short and figured I'd buy five keys from the exchange to get my 20 lobi. I won my fourth grand prize ship, the Dhailkhina, from one of those five keys.

    I've certainly never opened more than 500 boxes the entire time I've been playing.
  • keepcalmchiveonkeepcalmchiveon Member Posts: 1,957 Arc User
    Of course, the long-run averages are the safest bet when making spending choices.

    But, you really cannot underestimate the quirkiness of RNG. Over the years, I've never opened more than 10 boxes here and there and have gotten 3 grand prize ships. During the recent 50% lobi sale, I was 20 lobi short and figured I'd buy five keys from the exchange to get my 20 lobi. I won my fourth grand prize ship, the Dhailkhina, from one of those five keys.

    I've certainly never opened more than 500 boxes the entire time I've been playing.

    and luck befalls some and yet slaps others. :)

    gratz on the wins.
    meh

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