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how many packs does it normally take?

whistlerdavidwhistlerdavid Member Posts: 416 Arc User
i want that section 31 ship. however i spent 200 on the legendary pack. i was wondering how many packs does it normally take to get a ship or is it bad and it could take thousands of dollars worth of packs to get the ship
Post edited by baddmoonrizin on
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  • garaks31garaks31 Member Posts: 2,845 Arc User
    sell keys, i would suggest. on 2. or 3. days the ships get less costly
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,511 Arc User
    edited February 2020
    Lock box: odds are 1 in 250, promo pack: 1 in 100.

    A ship is never guaranteed. On average 250 lock boxes = 1 ship but before you open any boxes if you have 250 keys you only have a 63% chance of getting a ship. 1.0 - (.996 ^ 250) = 0.632. Again, you can only calculate that before you open anything. Each box is a roll of a die and probability has no memory.

    If you sell keys or promo packs on the exchange you can earn enough EC to get a ship with a 100% chance of success, that's the safer way.
  • tigerariestigeraries Member Posts: 3,492 Arc User
    if your lucky it only takes 1 =)
  • whistlerdavidwhistlerdavid Member Posts: 416 Arc User
    garaks31 wrote: »
    sell keys, i would suggest. on 2. or 3. days the ships get less costly

    i guess ill just buy 100 dollars worth of keys to sell
  • lianthelialianthelia Member Posts: 7,823 Arc User
    It's all random...could get a ship on your first box or open a few hundred and not get it. I myself haven't gotten a lock box ship in almost 7 years.
  • whistlerdavidwhistlerdavid Member Posts: 416 Arc User
    lianthelia wrote: »
    It's all random...could get a ship on your first box or open a few hundred and not get it. I myself haven't gotten a lock box ship in almost 7 years.

    wow yep i will just sell tons of keys really interested in that section 31 ship
  • lianthelialianthelia Member Posts: 7,823 Arc User
    lianthelia wrote: »
    It's all random...could get a ship on your first box or open a few hundred and not get it. I myself haven't gotten a lock box ship in almost 7 years.

    wow yep i will just sell tons of keys really interested in that section 31 ship

    I don't open a ton of them...but yeah I haven't gotten a ship since the original Tal Shiar box launch and even then I was mostly after plasmonic leech consoles.
  • grendelthewise#0990 grendelthewise Member Posts: 640 Arc User
    Your chances of getting that ship is like getting milk from a bull with the lock boxes
    Fleet Admiral of the U.S.S. ATTILA KHAN-CDA (NX-921911).
  • vongravenvongraven Member Posts: 116 Arc User
    I'm playing for about 8 years and can't even count all the boxes I opened during that time. Count the free boxes on anniversary events in. And I never got a single lockbox ship from gambling.
  • leemwatsonleemwatson Member Posts: 5,340 Arc User
    i want that section 31 ship. however i spent 200 on the legendary pack. i was wondering how many packs does it normally take to get a ship or is it bad and it could take thousands of dollars worth of packs to get the ship

    It could be one, it could be a million. Odds don't change with how many you open.
    "You don't want to patrol!? You don't want to escort!? You don't want to defend the Federation's Starbases!? Then why are you flying my Starships!? If you were a Klingon you'd be killed on the spot, but lucky for you.....you WERE in Starfleet. Let's see how New Zealand Penal Colony suits you." Adm A. Necheyev.
  • kaithan1975kaithan1975 Member Posts: 947 Arc User
    leemwatson wrote: »
    i want that section 31 ship. however i spent 200 on the legendary pack. i was wondering how many packs does it normally take to get a ship or is it bad and it could take thousands of dollars worth of packs to get the ship

    It could be one, it could be a million. Odds don't change with how many you open.

    Unfortunately some people believe it does. They see 1 in 250 odds and assume that if they open 250 they will get a ship.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,511 Arc User
    edited February 2020
    leemwatson wrote: »
    i want that section 31 ship. however i spent 200 on the legendary pack. i was wondering how many packs does it normally take to get a ship or is it bad and it could take thousands of dollars worth of packs to get the ship

    It could be one, it could be a million. Odds don't change with how many you open.

    Unfortunately some people believe it does. They see 1 in 250 odds and assume that if they open 250 they will get a ship.

    Yep, 1 out of 3 people doing that will spend $250 and get no ship. The exchange is the only guaranteed way to get a ship.

    (Though they do get a lobi ship as a consolation prize with their ~1,000 lobi.)
  • lasoniolasonio Member Posts: 490 Arc User
    lianthelia wrote: »
    It's all random...could get a ship on your first box or open a few hundred and not get it. I myself haven't gotten a lock box ship in almost 7 years.

    wow yep i will just sell tons of keys really interested in that section 31 ship

    You will make a substantial amount more by selling promo packs which will go on sale then by selling keys. And 100.00usd wont be enough to buy a ship in the Billion+ range.
    Even god rested. No work ethic.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,511 Arc User
    edited February 2020
    westmetals wrote: »
    Yeah... as the others said... each box is individually randomized, and the odds are somewhere between 1.0% and 0.4% per box.

    We're probably agreeing about things but your wording is a little ambiguous. Here's how I'd say it:

    Each lock box has a 1 in 250 chance of giving you a T6. Each Promo pack has a 1 in 100 chance. Every time you open a box or pack the server does a dice roll to see what you get.

    You can figure out the odds of getting a ship from N boxes or packs, but only if nothing has been opened yet. That's because there is a formula for the odds of failing to roll a success N times in a row, before you start. It's the odds of -0- ships from N rolls, and 100% - (chance of utter failure)% is then the chance of getting at least one ship (possibly more).

    (Stats speak: failing N times in a row is a dependent probability because to fail for 5 times all of (failed roll 1) (failed roll 2) (failed roll 3) (failed roll 4) (failed roll 5) must happen in sequence.)

  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,511 Arc User
    edited February 2020
    westmetals wrote: »
    westmetals wrote: »
    Yeah... as the others said... each box is individually randomized, and the odds are somewhere between 1.0% and 0.4% per box.

    We're probably agreeing about things but your wording is a little ambiguous. Here's how I'd say it:

    Each lock box has a 1 in 250 chance of giving you a T6. Each Promo pack has a 1 in 100 chance. Every time you open a box or pack the server does a dice roll to see what you get.

    You can figure out the odds of getting a ship from N boxes or packs, but only if nothing has been opened yet. That's because there is a formula for the odds of failing to roll a success N times in a row, before you start. It's the odds of -0- ships from N rolls, and 100% - (chance of utter failure)% is then the chance of getting at least one ship (possibly more).

    (Stats speak: failing N times in a row is a dependent probability because to fail for 5 times all of (failed roll 1) (failed roll 2) (failed roll 3) (failed roll 4) (failed roll 5) must happen in sequence.)

    Thank you. I am not a math expert and I dared to say it in my own words and not a Reddit-approved copy and paste.

    I now feel like I am COMPLETELY AND UTTERLY UNWELCOME.

    That was not my intention at all, sorry if you thought I was insulting you or putting you down somehow.

    You said "and the odds are somewhere between 1.0% and 0.4% per box." so I just wanted to clarify that the odds per box are actually a fixed value by type. A lock box is always 0.4%, a pack is always 1%.

    Also, I didn't copy-paste any of that wall of text I just took stats classes in college and have explained lock box and pack odds a few times before in similar threads.



  • salazarrazesalazarraze Member Posts: 3,794 Arc User
    edited February 2020
    i want that section 31 ship. however i spent 200 on the legendary pack. i was wondering how many packs does it normally take to get a ship or is it bad and it could take thousands of dollars worth of packs to get the ship

    If you're dead set on getting it and want a guaranteed method, the best way is to sell promo packs on the exchange for EC and use that EC to buy the ship on the exchange. With this in mind, the "worst case" scenario is a price of 1.5 Billion which at 14 million per promo pack works out to 108 packs.

    You could of course, wait until after the promo ends to sell your promo packs for more than 14 million each. And then wait until prices of the ship drop meaning you wouldn't have to spend as much. But then, the amount of packs you need is less clear since you'd have to wait and watch the exchange constantly.

    If you simply want to open promo packs, the odds are meaningless when talking about one person. It's 1% or so chance per promo pack. But that doesn't mean you need to open 100 to guarantee getting a ship. Since you could get lucky on the first box, or get really unlucky and have to wait until the 1000th box.
    When you see "TRIBBLE" in my posts, it's because I manually typed "TRIBBLE" and censored myself.
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    I hope I didn't make any terrifying math errors - if the chance of a single opening getting you the ship is 1 %, than the chance of not getting it after ~460 tries is also 1 %. So if you feel 1 % is an attractive bet to you, you know that you're equally likely to not get a ship even after 460 tries.

    That's why betting on selling Promo Boxes or Master Keys is generally "safer". And for Cryptic, it's basically the secret math behind how much money they can make per ship that made it into the hands of a player.
    Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
  • dantivirusdantivirus Member Posts: 84 Arc User
    edited March 2020
    Lock box: odds are 1 in 250, promo pack: 1 in 100.

    A ship is never guaranteed. On average 250 lock boxes = 1 ship but before you open any boxes if you have 250 keys you only have a 63% chance of getting a ship. 1.0 - (.996 ^ 250) = 0.632. Again, you can only calculate that before you open anything. Each box is a roll of a die and probability has no memory.

    If you sell keys or promo packs on the exchange you can earn enough EC to get a ship with a 100% chance of success, that's the safer way.

    Those odds have never been in my favor, I have opened thousands of lock boxes and promo boxes never once got a ship. Ever. So for me it was pretty much a slap in face by Cryptic's RNG. Honestly, they need to improve the odds as even a 5% chance would give me some hope to try again but as it stands now, I will never, ever, blow any more funds on such a bottomless pit of dispair.
  • joshmauljoshmaul Member Posts: 519 Arc User
    Fairly sure the answer to your question is "yes", heh heh.

    In all seriousness... ever since lockboxes have been a thing, I have only lucked out three times - Kelvin-prise, Sarcophagus, Crossfield. Ended up selling keys to get the Styx. With the promoboxes, my record is diddly to squat.
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  • lasoniolasonio Member Posts: 490 Arc User
    As long as people are well aware that it is most certainly safer to sell promo boxes but you will still pay well north of $200.00 usd to get it, even more if you sale key's, but the only difference is that you WILL get the EC to buy the ship, (I personally suggest buying the token for 1-1.2B instead of buying the listed ship for 1.5 as opposed to the chance, a very very very slim chance mind you, in which you may get the token on your second or third opening.

    So keep that in mind. The resources you need, be it work or pay to get this ship is worth generally 200-300.00 usd. Perspective and context. So don't think that it's going to be a cheap fix, one way or another you will have to pay the piper.
    Even god rested. No work ethic.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,511 Arc User
    edited March 2020
    lasonio wrote: »
    As long as people are well aware that it is most certainly safer to sell promo boxes but you will still pay well north of $200.00 usd to get it, even more if you sale key's, but the only difference is that you WILL get the EC to buy the ship, (I personally suggest buying the token for 1-1.2B instead of buying the listed ship for 1.5 as opposed to the chance, a very very very slim chance mind you, in which you may get the token on your second or third opening.

    So keep that in mind. The resources you need, be it work or pay to get this ship is worth generally 200-300.00 usd. Perspective and context. So don't think that it's going to be a cheap fix, one way or another you will have to pay the piper.

    There are tricks to make the price under $200 with a bit of patience:
    - buy zen during a charge bonus weekend
    - buy promo packs during a promo pack sale
    - hold the promo packs for a bit after the sale ends so that the EC price for them goes back up

    If you combine these the price should be $160 - 175.

    Also, while you're waiting for the sales you can earn millions of EC through endeavors and admiralty if you want to.
  • smokebaileysmokebailey Member Posts: 4,661 Arc User
    edited March 2020
    Too many. In tribble, I had 200 packs.....one came out of it....not many can afford 200 packs.

    *blows a raspberry the RNG * >_>;
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  • zedbrightlander1zedbrightlander1 Member Posts: 14,764 Arc User
    A lot of people are saying, "1,000,006."
    A lot of other people are saying, "It only takes one." But I think the other people were talking about lottery tickets, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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  • ltminnsltminns Member Posts: 12,569 Arc User
    All it takes is a dollar and a dream.©®™

    Courtesy of the NY Lottery

    :)
    'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
    Judge Dan Haywood
    'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
    l don't know.
    l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
    That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
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  • dantivirusdantivirus Member Posts: 84 Arc User
    I honestly wished they would up the odds of getting a ship from a lockbox or promo box. I have a better chance of being hit by a meteorite twice in one day than get a ship from a lockbox or promo box. I mean, I have tried, so many boxes, and so many failures. There's nothing enjoyable about a 1% chance (or most often less) to get a ship from a lockbox.
  • aboundedorc0#8479 aboundedorc0 Member Posts: 109 Arc User
    Sometimes it's just dumb luck! I used the five free anniversary keys on console this weekend to open 5 of the current lock boxes (Kelvin Divergence) and scored a Kelvin Einstein Heavy Destroyer after using the second one. That ship has proven to be a lot of fun and while I did consider selling it on the exchange; I'm glad that I opted to keep it for it's unique design and what has proven to be a fun ride.
  • ltminnsltminns Member Posts: 12,569 Arc User
    You think those odds are bad, the odds of getting an Epic Phoenix Token would make you cry.

    During the time I've gotten 6 R&D Promotion Ship Selection Boxes, I've gotten 2 Lockbox T6 Selection Boxes. And I've opened many many more Lockboxes.
    'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
    Judge Dan Haywood
    'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
    l don't know.
    l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
    That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
    Lt. Philip J. Minns
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