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P-box: odds got changed?

vongravenvongraven Member Posts: 116 Arc User
Hello everyone. I wanna ask if anyone else noticed something strange about the phoenix box drop rates. I used to buy like 10 packs a day with daily dil. During the former events it was extremely rare I haven't got a single purple token (very rare). Usually I had like 1-2 of those per 10 pack. Right now it's really common I don't get any purples or even get 10 greens in a row. Am I extremely unlucky or did the odds change? If so I somehow missed it...
Post edited by baddmoonrizin on

Comments

  • dirlettiadirlettia Member Posts: 1,632 Arc User
    You were previously lucky I would say, the latter is what you should probably have normally expected.

    Still waiting to be able to use forum titles
  • fleetcaptain5#1134 fleetcaptain5 Member Posts: 4,754 Arc User
    I would say yes, but I'd also say the odds have improved.

    The first time I got an ultra rare token was during the event before the previous one.

    I now have two ultra rare (I got three in the last couple of weeks) and two epic tokens. I'm even using the ultra rare ones now for upgrades because I get more than I need.

    Even though I'm not buying more packs, I'm probably buying fewer of them even.
    [4:46] [Combat {self}] Your Haymaker deals 23337 (9049) Physical Damage(Critical) to Spawnmother

    [3/25 10:41][Combat (Self)]Your Haymaker deals 26187 (10692) Physical Damage(Critical) to Orinoco.
  • lianthelialianthelia Member Posts: 7,820 Arc User
    Odds seem the same for me right now...rare purple, blue or three peppered in, and the rest green.
  • ltminnsltminns Member Posts: 12,569 Arc User
    The last time I bought 100 Packs, I cleared 163 Phoenix Upgrades from them.
    'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
    Judge Dan Haywood
    'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
    l don't know.
    l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
    That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
    Lt. Philip J. Minns
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,501 Arc User
    edited January 2020
    RNG is RNG. I opened 20 tonight and got 11 unc, 5 rare, 4 VR. So 20% VR and 45% better than "plain," which is a bit higher than normal.
  • meimeitoomeimeitoo Member Posts: 12,587 Arc User
    azrael605 wrote: »
    Statistical testing says any percieved changes are just that, percieved, not actual.

    That depends. It's probably better to say, 'Perceived changes, when taken from too small a sample, are only perceived, not actual.' It is, however, quite possible to notice a change in the odds (in a large enough sample) when such a change is actual.

    The likelihood of Cryptic actually having changed the odds are very slim, though.
    3lsZz0w.jpg
  • vongravenvongraven Member Posts: 116 Arc User
    Thank you very much for your answers, guys. Seems, I'm really fairly unlucky right now
  • knightofcerberusknightofcerberus Member Posts: 32 Arc User
    400+ boxes, nothing above very rare tokens for me...
  • phoenixc#0738 phoenixc Member Posts: 5,459 Arc User
    400+ boxes, nothing above very rare tokens for me...

    That is about par for the course actually, the odds of anything higher are truly abysmal. I have opened more than twice that many, and while I have gotten one epic and one ultra rare, neither of them came out of one of the boxes, both were directly from the Ferengi on Drozanna.
  • ussvaliant#6064 ussvaliant Member Posts: 1,006 Arc User
    I had 4 epics in the past couple of days so decided to buy a lotto ticket. Hope I haven't used up all my luck for the year already :)
    maR4zDV.jpg

    Hello rubber banding my old friend, time to bounce around the battlezone again, where are all my bug reports going?, out of love with this game I am falling, As Cryptic fail to acknowledge a problem exists, Shakes an angry fist, And from Support all I'm hearing are the sounds of silence.
  • vongravenvongraven Member Posts: 116 Arc User
    edited January 2020
    I only had 3 epics in the past years. I don't know exactly how much boxes I opened but it was definitely 3000+ I had a bunch of ultra rares though. At least 10 of those. They give some nice admiralty card ships - I can't complain :)
  • chastity1337chastity1337 Member Posts: 1,606 Arc User
    vongraven wrote: »
    I only had 3 epics in the past years. I don't know exactly how much boxes I opened but it was definitely 3000+ I had a bunch of ultra rares though. At least 10 of those. They give some nice admiralty card ships - I can't complain :)

    In all the years the Phoenix Boxes have been around, I have never gotten even an Ultra-Rare, let alone an Epic.
  • foppotee#4552 foppotee Member Posts: 1,704 Arc User
    vongraven wrote: »
    I only had 3 epics in the past years. I don't know exactly how much boxes I opened but it was definitely 3000+ I had a bunch of ultra rares though. At least 10 of those. They give some nice admiralty card ships - I can't complain :)

    In all the years the Phoenix Boxes have been around, I have never gotten even an Ultra-Rare, let alone an Epic.

    I think more & more of the remaining players feel this way &/or have that experience so don't gamble as much with it anymore. They are good for upgrade tokens & some of the lower tier items are nice for characters if not account-unlocked or not have. I think Cryptic is pushing to have Mudd's be primary over Phoenix so I wouldn't doubt a slower pace of additions to Phoenix &/or odds being changed for better or worse.
  • vongravenvongraven Member Posts: 116 Arc User
    In all the years the Phoenix Boxes have been around, I have never gotten even an Ultra-Rare, let alone an Epic.

    It depends on how many boxes you open, I guess... Can you remember or guess how much it was? I'm pretty sure I was preparing for every event. I didn't know exactly when it was ofc, but I started collecting dil when I had the feeling in the next month or two will be the day X. So I had decent amounts of it for every event, buying like 300-500 boxes each time or nearly each time. It the last few events I even bought some zen and converted to dil because the dilex rates were good for selling zen. (That's what I'm not doing anymore) So I had loads, loads of those boxes. Even so, those drop rates are kinda crazy. I got all of my epics in the same event. Out of the same +/-500 boxes. And since than never again...

    I think Cryptic is pushing to have Mudd's be primary over Phoenix

    Honestly, that's a shame. The game needs dilex fixed and Cryptic is killing the only event that could manage it. With new stuff constantly getting added to p-boxes the interest for those would eventually never fade. But now, well... I think people don't buy as much p-boxes as they used to.

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